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The Few Bets That Matter
Seeing a lot of $PATH bear cases lately. Most - all, of them about potential Mag7 competition.
Sure, they could replicate the service. They aren’t.
Google and Microsoft are focused on AI infra & core platforms while $PATH is executing. And data shows demand is accelerating.
Will this hold for a decade? Maybe. Maybe not. But I don’t need it to. If $PATH runs for 18 to 24 months until the big guys propose a serious and comparable service, I'll be fine. That’s a very good trade. Assuming the service will be good enough then to take shares and break $PATH's switching costs.
Competition exists everywhere. The Mag7 are more capable than any startup, and yet startups win all the time.
If we continue to take those bear case seriously, we only invest in the Mag7 because they can do anything.
In the meantime, I'd rather trade the data that the "maybes". And the data is crytal clear
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Seeing a lot of $PATH bear cases lately. Most - all, of them about potential Mag7 competition.
Sure, they could replicate the service. They aren’t.
Google and Microsoft are focused on AI infra & core platforms while $PATH is executing. And data shows demand is accelerating.
Will this hold for a decade? Maybe. Maybe not. But I don’t need it to. If $PATH runs for 18 to 24 months until the big guys propose a serious and comparable service, I'll be fine. That’s a very good trade. Assuming the service will be good enough then to take shares and break $PATH's switching costs.
Competition exists everywhere. The Mag7 are more capable than any startup, and yet startups win all the time.
If we continue to take those bear case seriously, we only invest in the Mag7 because they can do anything.
In the meantime, I'd rather trade the data that the "maybes". And the data is crytal clear
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God of Prompt
RT @LyashchMaxim: the n8n automations alone are worth the price of admission.
prompts are cool, but automated workflows are what actually scale a business. "pay once, own forever" is a dying business model in the SaaS era. grab this before they switch to subscription💎
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RT @LyashchMaxim: the n8n automations alone are worth the price of admission.
prompts are cool, but automated workflows are what actually scale a business. "pay once, own forever" is a dying business model in the SaaS era. grab this before they switch to subscription💎
Your premium AI bundle to 10x your business
→ Prompts for marketing & business
→ Unlimited custom prompts
→ n8n automations
→ Use code SUCCESS26 for 20% off
→ Pay once, own forever
Grab it today 👇
https://t.co/C8Zzw2Jkpc tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
On Aug 13 2025, $FICO traded ~37x NTM
Since then, $FICO is up +23%, with the multiple expanding back to ~40x (+8% multiple expansion)
In other words, growth did a lot of the work
This is the power of a business compounding at an aggressive rate — the multiple can look “expensive” at first glance, then appear relatively cheap just a few years later
Quality & growth has a way of solving valuation concerns over time if you allow the business to compound
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On Aug 13 2025, $FICO traded ~37x NTM
Since then, $FICO is up +23%, with the multiple expanding back to ~40x (+8% multiple expansion)
In other words, growth did a lot of the work
This is the power of a business compounding at an aggressive rate — the multiple can look “expensive” at first glance, then appear relatively cheap just a few years later
Quality & growth has a way of solving valuation concerns over time if you allow the business to compound
Dev Kantesaria put it well: "Getting worked up over whether a stock trades at 26 or 29 times earnings is far less important than making sure you own the right business."
My takeaway: "Cheap" is expensive if the business sucks. "Expensive" is cheap if the business compounds. https://t.co/iUdixBLKaS tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Jeff Bezos in 2013:
"Percentage margins don't matter. What matters always is dollar margins: the actual dollar amount. Companies are valued not on their percentage margins, but on how many dollars they actually make"
$AMZN https://t.co/JToEodklWr
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Jeff Bezos in 2013:
"Percentage margins don't matter. What matters always is dollar margins: the actual dollar amount. Companies are valued not on their percentage margins, but on how many dollars they actually make"
$AMZN https://t.co/JToEodklWr
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God of Prompt
RT @godofprompt: 🚨 A 1991 technique lets you build trillion-parameter models while only activating billions.
Nobody scaled it for decades.
Now Mixture of Experts (MoE) is the secret behind the fastest, cheapest open-source giants and it's about to make LLMs outdated.
Here's how 30-year-old math became the future of AI:
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RT @godofprompt: 🚨 A 1991 technique lets you build trillion-parameter models while only activating billions.
Nobody scaled it for decades.
Now Mixture of Experts (MoE) is the secret behind the fastest, cheapest open-source giants and it's about to make LLMs outdated.
Here's how 30-year-old math became the future of AI:
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $ASML was a no brainer, up ~66% in less than 6 months since this post.
Sometimes the market hands out gifts.
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RT @WealthyReadings: $ASML was a no brainer, up ~66% in less than 6 months since this post.
Sometimes the market hands out gifts.
Is $ASML the best stock to buy at Monday's market open?
The company's mistake is to be cautious on guidance due to the actual economy & tariffs risks, while being a pillar of the AI revolution as its lithography hardware is needed everywhere to manufacture chips and many new manufacture hubs are being built in the U.S.
Most of AI hardware stocks are trading at ATH due to strong demand, results & guidance. Meanwhile, $ASML trades close to its lowest valuation ever, bouncing on its 200EMA which is historically a bottom.
A no brainer? tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $HIMS is down 45% since I closed my position six months ago.
I don't expect the stock to be better over the next months. https://t.co/DIOPWetja4
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RT @WealthyReadings: $HIMS is down 45% since I closed my position six months ago.
I don't expect the stock to be better over the next months. https://t.co/DIOPWetja4
I decided to close my $HIMS position today, after last night's earnings.
If you are interested by a clear & unbiased summary of the earnings, why I am closing my position & why I believe $HIMS will go through some tough times, it's all detailed below.
https://t.co/vTcjV48al4 tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: If I were looking for the next stocks to buy, I wouldn't look at AI, I would look further.
Defensives $DVN $SLB $TGT
Healthcare laggard $PFE $NVO
Retail $LULU $DECK
China $JD $PDD
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RT @WealthyReadings: If I were looking for the next stocks to buy, I wouldn't look at AI, I would look further.
Defensives $DVN $SLB $TGT
Healthcare laggard $PFE $NVO
Retail $LULU $DECK
China $JD $PDD
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