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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: $UBER trades for a fairly attractive price $82💵
2026 EPS➡️ $4.25 (-32%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $5.11 (+20%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $5.92 (+16%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS Est of $5.92:
24x | 20%
23x | 18%
22x | 16%
21x | 15%
20x | 13%
19x | 11%
18x | 9% https://t.co/CnF5y2GAdQ
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RT @DimitryNakhla: $UBER trades for a fairly attractive price $82💵
2026 EPS➡️ $4.25 (-32%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $5.11 (+20%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $5.92 (+16%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS Est of $5.92:
24x | 20%
23x | 18%
22x | 16%
21x | 15%
20x | 13%
19x | 11%
18x | 9% https://t.co/CnF5y2GAdQ
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The Few Bets That Matter
Diversification is a poison for most investors, especially small ones.
Too many people run a $100,000 portfolio with 20 positions - each with different convictions.
What is the point of allocating $5,000 to an idea?
Even if you are right and the stock shoots 100%, your portfolio gains just 5%. $5,000. While a 100% performance is hell of a jump.
Meanwhile, your highest-conviction idea, the one you spent hours or days researching, gets only $10,000. In a best-case scenario, it barely moves the needle.
And your goal with a $100,000 portfolio is probably not $110,000, but $250,000 or $500,000+. Diversification makes no sense.
Your biggest ideas should be massively larger than your weakest ones. Heck, your weakest one doesn't even have a place in your portfolio.
When conviction is high, bet big.
Otherwise, being right won’t even matter.
Make. It. Matter.
tweet
Diversification is a poison for most investors, especially small ones.
Too many people run a $100,000 portfolio with 20 positions - each with different convictions.
What is the point of allocating $5,000 to an idea?
Even if you are right and the stock shoots 100%, your portfolio gains just 5%. $5,000. While a 100% performance is hell of a jump.
Meanwhile, your highest-conviction idea, the one you spent hours or days researching, gets only $10,000. In a best-case scenario, it barely moves the needle.
And your goal with a $100,000 portfolio is probably not $110,000, but $250,000 or $500,000+. Diversification makes no sense.
Your biggest ideas should be massively larger than your weakest ones. Heck, your weakest one doesn't even have a place in your portfolio.
When conviction is high, bet big.
Otherwise, being right won’t even matter.
Make. It. Matter.
tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Holy cow.
Yesterday, a new account on Polymarket made a massive bet that Maduro would be out of office by January 31st.
Today, the United States carried out strikes on Venezuela and captured Maduro.
The trader has now made over $400K.
Insider or lucky? https://t.co/dHqThzccuB
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Holy cow.
Yesterday, a new account on Polymarket made a massive bet that Maduro would be out of office by January 31st.
Today, the United States carried out strikes on Venezuela and captured Maduro.
The trader has now made over $400K.
Insider or lucky? https://t.co/dHqThzccuB
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
Here are four names that could become opportunities. But not just yet.
$JD / $PDD - The Chinese e-coms will recover once domestic consumption rebounds. And it will as the government is now making it its #1 priority. When is the only question left, while at today's valuation, we're looking at tripple digit returns rapidly.
$TGT - As consumption slows and middle-income households come under pressure, those will trade-down to $TGT. Easier comps could make growth look materially stronger and push the stock higher.
$NVO - The Danish giant needs its next growth lever. Oral GLP-1 could be it, although we still need some data to confirm it.
$NFLX - The market continues to price execution risk post $WBD acquisition; as it assumes the deal is closed. Leverage can't be ignored despite management’s track record.
These four names have the potential to become opportunities. But until the data confirms the narrative, convictions are nothing more than isolated opinions.
Conviction turns into opportunity when data validates it. Until then, there is no money to be made.
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Here are four names that could become opportunities. But not just yet.
$JD / $PDD - The Chinese e-coms will recover once domestic consumption rebounds. And it will as the government is now making it its #1 priority. When is the only question left, while at today's valuation, we're looking at tripple digit returns rapidly.
$TGT - As consumption slows and middle-income households come under pressure, those will trade-down to $TGT. Easier comps could make growth look materially stronger and push the stock higher.
$NVO - The Danish giant needs its next growth lever. Oral GLP-1 could be it, although we still need some data to confirm it.
$NFLX - The market continues to price execution risk post $WBD acquisition; as it assumes the deal is closed. Leverage can't be ignored despite management’s track record.
These four names have the potential to become opportunities. But until the data confirms the narrative, convictions are nothing more than isolated opinions.
Conviction turns into opportunity when data validates it. Until then, there is no money to be made.
tweet