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The Few Bets That Matter
$ASML was a no brainer, up ~66% in less than 6 months since this post.
Sometimes the market hands out gifts.
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$ASML was a no brainer, up ~66% in less than 6 months since this post.
Sometimes the market hands out gifts.
Is $ASML the best stock to buy at Monday's market open?
The company's mistake is to be cautious on guidance due to the actual economy & tariffs risks, while being a pillar of the AI revolution as its lithography hardware is needed everywhere to manufacture chips and many new manufacture hubs are being built in the U.S.
Most of AI hardware stocks are trading at ATH due to strong demand, results & guidance. Meanwhile, $ASML trades close to its lowest valuation ever, bouncing on its 200EMA which is historically a bottom.
A no brainer? tweet
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Giuliano
I’ve heard amazing things about this book.
Been really looking forward to read it. https://t.co/RGgQ1RFEI0
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I’ve heard amazing things about this book.
Been really looking forward to read it. https://t.co/RGgQ1RFEI0
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Wasteland Capital
Could someone check in on SAAS investors… absolute bloodbath.
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Could someone check in on SAAS investors… absolute bloodbath.
SOFTWARE deserves a call out today... ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in ~20 yrs
- Software v Semis (relative): -700bp
- SaaS (absolute): -450bp
- SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @JaredKubin: No notes. https://t.co/CccrV9TYMj
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RT @JaredKubin: No notes. https://t.co/CccrV9TYMj
SOFTWARE deserves a call out today... ABSOLUTELY NUKED in 3rd worst day (so far) in ~20 yrs
- Software v Semis (relative): -700bp
- SaaS (absolute): -450bp
- SMB Software: -400bp https://t.co/1S4K5UGcQR tweet
EndGame Macro
Let me get this straight…STRC and SATA's yields have risen to 11-13% as MSTR's stock has tanked 61% over the past 6 months. How do they sustain rates triple the 4.19% on 10 year Treasuries without implying a massive risk premium for Bitcoin volatility or dividend cuts, especially amid Fed cuts that obviously signal economic stress? 🤡 🫠
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Let me get this straight…STRC and SATA's yields have risen to 11-13% as MSTR's stock has tanked 61% over the past 6 months. How do they sustain rates triple the 4.19% on 10 year Treasuries without implying a massive risk premium for Bitcoin volatility or dividend cuts, especially amid Fed cuts that obviously signal economic stress? 🤡 🫠
What do you think is going to happen to STRC and SATA when they're paying 11-13% dividends in an environment where the Fed is cutting rates?
A massive bid on Bitcoin is coming from digital credit.
Not a matter of if, but when. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Adam Livingston (@AdamBLiv) on X
What do you think is going to happen to STRC and SATA when they're paying 11-13% dividends in an environment where the Fed is cutting rates?
A massive bid on Bitcoin is coming from digital credit.
Not a matter of if, but when.
A massive bid on Bitcoin is coming from digital credit.
Not a matter of if, but when.
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Illiquid
Crazy how this was all predicted in 2008 in the 1,000 true fans essay.
"Jonathan Rosen: I think we’re seeing two big trends. Individuals now have more authority in media than institutions. And how you balance that becomes really, really critical. What that’s done in regards to subscriptions versus advertising is, people want the parasocial relationships. That’s so much of the modern internet right now. This flip side, though, is that most advertisers want qualified, engaged audiences. We’re post the era of mass, and more about how you can actually reach engaged people in a world with too much information. That’s what our clients care about.
So I think the best subscription platforms are also going to have the best ad models, because you’re actually buying a hyper-engaged audience. Subscription almost proves qualification, it proves interest, it proves intent—and intent is what you need in a world where you can scroll by an ad in a second and a half. You’re going to see more and more top-of-the-funnel ad sales go toward heavily subscription-based businesses."
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Crazy how this was all predicted in 2008 in the 1,000 true fans essay.
"Jonathan Rosen: I think we’re seeing two big trends. Individuals now have more authority in media than institutions. And how you balance that becomes really, really critical. What that’s done in regards to subscriptions versus advertising is, people want the parasocial relationships. That’s so much of the modern internet right now. This flip side, though, is that most advertisers want qualified, engaged audiences. We’re post the era of mass, and more about how you can actually reach engaged people in a world with too much information. That’s what our clients care about.
So I think the best subscription platforms are also going to have the best ad models, because you’re actually buying a hyper-engaged audience. Subscription almost proves qualification, it proves interest, it proves intent—and intent is what you need in a world where you can scroll by an ad in a second and a half. You’re going to see more and more top-of-the-funnel ad sales go toward heavily subscription-based businesses."
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Illiquid
$MTRS.ST - Two reports of order wins in quick succession. This one was mentioned by @zephyr_z9 a while back.
Also discovered the Cooling Post today:
https://t.co/XFw0xTYcm4 https://t.co/RMNGVTyv9k
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$MTRS.ST - Two reports of order wins in quick succession. This one was mentioned by @zephyr_z9 a while back.
Also discovered the Cooling Post today:
https://t.co/XFw0xTYcm4 https://t.co/RMNGVTyv9k
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