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Me liking, unliking and re-liking a post just because I love the New Year animation
https://t.co/xRFAnKu55r
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Me liking, unliking and re-liking a post just because I love the New Year animation
https://t.co/xRFAnKu55r
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EndGame Macro
How a Population Shock Drove Rents Higher And What Happens Next
From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. saw an unusually large population shock where roughly 6 million more foreign born residents in a very short window. Almost all of that inflow showed up in the rental market. About 9 out of 10 new immigrant households rented, which is why they accounted for roughly two thirds of total rental demand growth nationwide and in places like California and New York, essentially all of it. This wasn’t just a long term lease story either. New arrivals also leaned on short term rentals at first with extended stays, Airbnb style units, and informal sublets which quietly tightened supply across both long term and short term markets at the same time.
Layer on top of that a housing market already short 4 to 7 million units in high demand areas and a surge in investor purchases converting homes into rentals, and you get the rent inflation we just lived through. Demand spiked faster than supply could respond, so prices did what prices always do under constraint.
What’s Changed Now
That demand impulse is fading. Net immigration has slowed, deportations and self departures picked up in 2025, and for the first time in decades the total immigrant population actually declined. At the same time, new multifamily supply finally hit the market. The result is visible in the data with national rents rolling over, month to month declines, and year over year prices slipping.
This is why rent is softening even though affordability still feels bad. The pressure came off the demand side before wages or household balance sheets really healed. Short term rentals are feeling it too, especially in high immigration metros…occupancy rates are down, nightly pricing is softer, and marginal hosts are suddenly competing for fewer renters.
The Bigger Picture
The rent surge wasn’t just greedy landlords or pure inflation. It was a demographic shock colliding with a supply starved system. Now that the shock is reversing, rents are easing but that doesn’t mean housing is healthy. It means one temporary support beam has been removed.
Going forward, softer rents help headline inflation, but they also expose how dependent recent price stability was on population inflows. If job growth cools or household stress rises at the same time, landlords lose pricing power quickly. That’s the risk now…not a rent crash everywhere, but a quiet shift from shortage panic to competition, especially in the same cities that led the surge on the way up.
tweet
How a Population Shock Drove Rents Higher And What Happens Next
From 2021 to 2024, the U.S. saw an unusually large population shock where roughly 6 million more foreign born residents in a very short window. Almost all of that inflow showed up in the rental market. About 9 out of 10 new immigrant households rented, which is why they accounted for roughly two thirds of total rental demand growth nationwide and in places like California and New York, essentially all of it. This wasn’t just a long term lease story either. New arrivals also leaned on short term rentals at first with extended stays, Airbnb style units, and informal sublets which quietly tightened supply across both long term and short term markets at the same time.
Layer on top of that a housing market already short 4 to 7 million units in high demand areas and a surge in investor purchases converting homes into rentals, and you get the rent inflation we just lived through. Demand spiked faster than supply could respond, so prices did what prices always do under constraint.
What’s Changed Now
That demand impulse is fading. Net immigration has slowed, deportations and self departures picked up in 2025, and for the first time in decades the total immigrant population actually declined. At the same time, new multifamily supply finally hit the market. The result is visible in the data with national rents rolling over, month to month declines, and year over year prices slipping.
This is why rent is softening even though affordability still feels bad. The pressure came off the demand side before wages or household balance sheets really healed. Short term rentals are feeling it too, especially in high immigration metros…occupancy rates are down, nightly pricing is softer, and marginal hosts are suddenly competing for fewer renters.
The Bigger Picture
The rent surge wasn’t just greedy landlords or pure inflation. It was a demographic shock colliding with a supply starved system. Now that the shock is reversing, rents are easing but that doesn’t mean housing is healthy. It means one temporary support beam has been removed.
Going forward, softer rents help headline inflation, but they also expose how dependent recent price stability was on population inflows. If job growth cools or household stress rises at the same time, landlords lose pricing power quickly. That’s the risk now…not a rent crash everywhere, but a quiet shift from shortage panic to competition, especially in the same cities that led the surge on the way up.
BREAKING: Foreign-born population accounted for more than 60% of rental demand growth in the U.S., per FOX. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Leading Report (@LeadingReport) on X
BREAKING: Foreign-born population accounted for more than 60% of rental demand growth in the U.S., per FOX.
Offshore
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memenodes
#NewYear2026 plans
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#NewYear2026 plans
i'm gonna be so productive today
also me: grok remove the dress https://t.co/JWBYGBgCoj tweet
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Why are you still single? You don't have a girlfriend?
me in my prime: https://t.co/CSUmyWxJIL
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Why are you still single? You don't have a girlfriend?
me in my prime: https://t.co/CSUmyWxJIL
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memenodes
Everyone's out enjoying New Year's Eve, and you're gooning in your room with Grok https://t.co/5WGP7Ef15F
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Everyone's out enjoying New Year's Eve, and you're gooning in your room with Grok https://t.co/5WGP7Ef15F
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