Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
RT @DiMartinoBooth: New Year, New Goals — A Discount Offer from QI Research
Take advantage of our New Year offer and Save 20% on a subscription to The Daily Feather now or to our QI Pro Subscription —
https://t.co/QP3cvp4b6e https://t.co/x5VMDp0Say
tweet
RT @DiMartinoBooth: New Year, New Goals — A Discount Offer from QI Research
Take advantage of our New Year offer and Save 20% on a subscription to The Daily Feather now or to our QI Pro Subscription —
https://t.co/QP3cvp4b6e https://t.co/x5VMDp0Say
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Questions Everyone Should Be Thinking About as 2026 Approaches
1. What’s the historical precedent of the year over year moves of Gold and Silver over the past year?
2. What’s the historical precedent of the current delinquency rates on credit cards, auto loans and student loans?
3. What’s the historical precedent of the current 2025 Chapter 11 and Sub V filings? (You need to add them both together because prior to 2020 Sub V filings were included in Chapter 11 bankruptcies)
4. What’s the historical precedent of the current vacancy rates of commercial properties and more specifically commercial office? And what does that mean for tax revenues of cities and towns across the U.S.?
5. What’s the historical precedent in the amount of commercial loan debt needs to be refinanced in 2026 at higher rates? And what are the ramifications for Banks? Lending? Etc..
6. Whats is the historical lag effect when the Fed has started cutting rates and taken measures like Quantitative Easing to materialize into the economy that is already in or entering a recession?
7. What is the historical precedent for the amount of Amercians that are voluntary and non voluntary working part time jobs as of December 2025?
8. What price historically does oil need to be for U.S. oil drillers and refiners etc.. to stay profitable and what happens when oil gets blow that? And what is the price of oil now?
9. How concentrated is the current U.S. Stock Market compared to 1929, 2000 and 2008? And what happened after?
tweet
Questions Everyone Should Be Thinking About as 2026 Approaches
1. What’s the historical precedent of the year over year moves of Gold and Silver over the past year?
2. What’s the historical precedent of the current delinquency rates on credit cards, auto loans and student loans?
3. What’s the historical precedent of the current 2025 Chapter 11 and Sub V filings? (You need to add them both together because prior to 2020 Sub V filings were included in Chapter 11 bankruptcies)
4. What’s the historical precedent of the current vacancy rates of commercial properties and more specifically commercial office? And what does that mean for tax revenues of cities and towns across the U.S.?
5. What’s the historical precedent in the amount of commercial loan debt needs to be refinanced in 2026 at higher rates? And what are the ramifications for Banks? Lending? Etc..
6. Whats is the historical lag effect when the Fed has started cutting rates and taken measures like Quantitative Easing to materialize into the economy that is already in or entering a recession?
7. What is the historical precedent for the amount of Amercians that are voluntary and non voluntary working part time jobs as of December 2025?
8. What price historically does oil need to be for U.S. oil drillers and refiners etc.. to stay profitable and what happens when oil gets blow that? And what is the price of oil now?
9. How concentrated is the current U.S. Stock Market compared to 1929, 2000 and 2008? And what happened after?
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Senator Dave McCormick just filed up to $200K in new Bitcoin purchases.
McCormick sits on the Senate Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/0tZvw4A7mC
tweet
JUST IN: Senator Dave McCormick just filed up to $200K in new Bitcoin purchases.
McCormick sits on the Senate Subcommittee on Digital Assets.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/0tZvw4A7mC
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
I’m fairly confident if they actually came out with this movie that it would probably be a massive success 🤣
tweet
I’m fairly confident if they actually came out with this movie that it would probably be a massive success 🤣
holy shit sydney sweeney in shrek ??? 🍿 https://t.co/EP8qYx50GW tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Where Market Liquidity Really Comes From
This is showing that hedge funds have been leaning harder on borrowed money and the borrowing is coming mostly through prime brokerage, which is mostly equity financing and repo, which is mostly fixed income financing. Other secured borrowing…which is a lot of securities lending is up too, but it’s the repo and prime brokerage lines doing the real heavy lifting. What matters isn’t the existence of hedge funds, but how heavily market liquidity now depends on short term, secured borrowing.
What’s Actually Happening Here
Hedge funds don’t just take investor capital and buy things. They layer financing on top with margin loans, repos, and synthetic leverage through derivatives to amplify positions. And this isn’t small. Hedge fund gross notional exposures is above $33T, up nearly 2.5x since 2013, with a lot of that growth concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and interest rate derivatives, the kind of terrain where leverage and basis trades thrive. It also notes leverage is about 2.5x for the industry overall, but it’s dramatically higher where it matters most with the largest funds running leverage north of 18x, with the next tier closer to 10x.
Why This Matters For The Real Economy
In calm markets, this can look like a feature where hedge funds can help tighten mispricings, add liquidity, and deepen markets. The problem is the same thing that makes it efficient also makes it fragile because short term funding can disappear fast. When repo terms tighten, when margins jump, when volatility spikes, this isn’t let’s think it through. It’s sell what you can, cut risk, meet the call. And because hedge funds are major participants in the Treasury and dollar repo markets, that stress can leak straight into the price of money for everyone else in yields, spreads, credit conditions, and confidence.
My View
This chart is about where the system’s sensitivity lives right now. When leverage is increasingly financed through repo and prime brokerage, the weak point becomes the plumbing…funding terms, haircuts, counterparty risk, and forced deleveraging. Banks sit right in the middle of that as prime brokers and counterparties and they can get hit when things go wrong, Archegos is a clean example of how quickly losses can appear. That’s how a Wall Street leverage chart turns into a Main Street issue…through asset fire sales, counterparty stress, and pullbacks in intermediation that tighten financial conditions when the economy can least afford it.
tweet
Where Market Liquidity Really Comes From
This is showing that hedge funds have been leaning harder on borrowed money and the borrowing is coming mostly through prime brokerage, which is mostly equity financing and repo, which is mostly fixed income financing. Other secured borrowing…which is a lot of securities lending is up too, but it’s the repo and prime brokerage lines doing the real heavy lifting. What matters isn’t the existence of hedge funds, but how heavily market liquidity now depends on short term, secured borrowing.
What’s Actually Happening Here
Hedge funds don’t just take investor capital and buy things. They layer financing on top with margin loans, repos, and synthetic leverage through derivatives to amplify positions. And this isn’t small. Hedge fund gross notional exposures is above $33T, up nearly 2.5x since 2013, with a lot of that growth concentrated in U.S. Treasuries and interest rate derivatives, the kind of terrain where leverage and basis trades thrive. It also notes leverage is about 2.5x for the industry overall, but it’s dramatically higher where it matters most with the largest funds running leverage north of 18x, with the next tier closer to 10x.
Why This Matters For The Real Economy
In calm markets, this can look like a feature where hedge funds can help tighten mispricings, add liquidity, and deepen markets. The problem is the same thing that makes it efficient also makes it fragile because short term funding can disappear fast. When repo terms tighten, when margins jump, when volatility spikes, this isn’t let’s think it through. It’s sell what you can, cut risk, meet the call. And because hedge funds are major participants in the Treasury and dollar repo markets, that stress can leak straight into the price of money for everyone else in yields, spreads, credit conditions, and confidence.
My View
This chart is about where the system’s sensitivity lives right now. When leverage is increasingly financed through repo and prime brokerage, the weak point becomes the plumbing…funding terms, haircuts, counterparty risk, and forced deleveraging. Banks sit right in the middle of that as prime brokers and counterparties and they can get hit when things go wrong, Archegos is a clean example of how quickly losses can appear. That’s how a Wall Street leverage chart turns into a Main Street issue…through asset fire sales, counterparty stress, and pullbacks in intermediation that tighten financial conditions when the economy can least afford it.
Hedge funds often augment their investment positions using leverage. The leverage sources can be divided into three categories: prime brokerage, repo, and other secured borrowing. Prime brokerage and repo borrowing have increased rapidly over the past few years, as shown in this chart. https://t.co/ep6ItQTBlh tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The S&P Is Priced for Stability And Gold Isn’t
At first glance, the chart feels almost absurd. In an era defined by AI, software, and exponential technology, a metal has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. But this isn’t really about gold beating stocks. Everything here is normalized to 2000 right when equities were priced for perfection and gold was deeply out of favor. What matters is what happened after. Over a full cycle that included the dot com bust, the financial crisis, repeated policy rescues, and an explosion in debt, the S&P needed ever lower rates and ever looser conditions just to keep compounding. Gold didn’t. When confidence broke, gold held its ground. When confidence returned, equities ran. This latest surge especially with silver joining in isn’t a vote against innovation or growth. It’s a signal that the market is questioning how durable equity returns are when they depend so heavily on policy support.
Why This Divergence Matters Now
The S&P sitting near highs while gold and silver rip isn’t a contradiction, it’s a tension. Stocks are pricing continued stability, earnings resilience, and policy backstops. Metals are pricing fragility. That gap usually shows up late in cycles, not early ones. Layer in what’s happening globally and it starts to make sense…China’s real estate market once the backbone of household wealth is still deflating, pushing private savings into gold. The seizure of Russia’s FX reserves permanently changed how many countries view dollar assets, driving sustained central bank buying and pulling physical supply off the market. Add silver’s role as both money and an industrial input, and you get a broader signal: the world isn’t rotating out of stocks yet, but it is quietly hedging against a future where balance sheets, geopolitics, and policy credibility matter more than index level optimism. You don’t need an imminent crash for this to be meaningful. You just need to recognize that when metals outperform equities over long stretches, it usually means confidence, not growth is what’s being repriced.
tweet
The S&P Is Priced for Stability And Gold Isn’t
At first glance, the chart feels almost absurd. In an era defined by AI, software, and exponential technology, a metal has outperformed the S&P 500 by a wide margin. But this isn’t really about gold beating stocks. Everything here is normalized to 2000 right when equities were priced for perfection and gold was deeply out of favor. What matters is what happened after. Over a full cycle that included the dot com bust, the financial crisis, repeated policy rescues, and an explosion in debt, the S&P needed ever lower rates and ever looser conditions just to keep compounding. Gold didn’t. When confidence broke, gold held its ground. When confidence returned, equities ran. This latest surge especially with silver joining in isn’t a vote against innovation or growth. It’s a signal that the market is questioning how durable equity returns are when they depend so heavily on policy support.
Why This Divergence Matters Now
The S&P sitting near highs while gold and silver rip isn’t a contradiction, it’s a tension. Stocks are pricing continued stability, earnings resilience, and policy backstops. Metals are pricing fragility. That gap usually shows up late in cycles, not early ones. Layer in what’s happening globally and it starts to make sense…China’s real estate market once the backbone of household wealth is still deflating, pushing private savings into gold. The seizure of Russia’s FX reserves permanently changed how many countries view dollar assets, driving sustained central bank buying and pulling physical supply off the market. Add silver’s role as both money and an industrial input, and you get a broader signal: the world isn’t rotating out of stocks yet, but it is quietly hedging against a future where balance sheets, geopolitics, and policy credibility matter more than index level optimism. You don’t need an imminent crash for this to be meaningful. You just need to recognize that when metals outperform equities over long stretches, it usually means confidence, not growth is what’s being repriced.
In the greatest century for technological advancement in the history of humanity, the world's best performing stock market has been outperformed by a mineral.... three-fold tweet
Offshore
Photo
memenodes
Me when I say “Internet capital markets” instead of meme coins https://t.co/XR9tdmGBds
tweet
Me when I say “Internet capital markets” instead of meme coins https://t.co/XR9tdmGBds
tweet