Offshore
Photo
Wasteland Capital
The day before Christmas Eve, and $MU went above $280, new all time high, and +233% YTD.
Someone has been a very, very good boy! https://t.co/WXB6J92sHB
tweet
The day before Christmas Eve, and $MU went above $280, new all time high, and +233% YTD.
Someone has been a very, very good boy! https://t.co/WXB6J92sHB
tweet
Clark Square Capital
RT @mihaljevic: Great investing follows for 2026:
@ChrisBloomstran
@ElliotTurn
@tsaicapital
@MohnishPabrai
@PenderDave
@BillBrewsterTBB
@danielgladis
@Logos_LP
@LCTempleton
@GreenhavenRoad
@BobRobotti
@bogumil_nyc
@MikeFritzell
@ClarkSquareCap
@HiddenGemsInves
@david_katunaric
@evfcfaddict
tweet
RT @mihaljevic: Great investing follows for 2026:
@ChrisBloomstran
@ElliotTurn
@tsaicapital
@MohnishPabrai
@PenderDave
@BillBrewsterTBB
@danielgladis
@Logos_LP
@LCTempleton
@GreenhavenRoad
@BobRobotti
@bogumil_nyc
@MikeFritzell
@ClarkSquareCap
@HiddenGemsInves
@david_katunaric
@evfcfaddict
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
RT @stoic_point: SAKS GOING BK
Core to our $LUXE pitch: industry structure SIGNIFICANTLY improves, partly from a transformative deal, but also competitors keep disappearing. Mkt chart needs constant updates: #3 Saks going BK. #4 FTCH parent raided by K-Feds. #8 Ssense filed for BK. Meanwhile... https://t.co/xuzo0Q71IH
tweet
RT @stoic_point: SAKS GOING BK
Core to our $LUXE pitch: industry structure SIGNIFICANTLY improves, partly from a transformative deal, but also competitors keep disappearing. Mkt chart needs constant updates: #3 Saks going BK. #4 FTCH parent raided by K-Feds. #8 Ssense filed for BK. Meanwhile... https://t.co/xuzo0Q71IH
(1/3) Last month we pitched LuxExperience $LUXE as a long at the wonderful Spring Investor Summit hosted by @SumZero and @AlphaSenseInc. Several have asked so below is a link to our slides.
Disclaimer: note this post is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell any security and is also not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision. This post is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell any security and is also not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision) tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
RT @patientinvestt: Amazon’s operating margin has exploded from 0.2% to 11%, largely driven by their robotics tech & the market still isn’t pricing it in!
2026 will likely be $AMZN's year! https://t.co/17hBkS6LCa
tweet
RT @patientinvestt: Amazon’s operating margin has exploded from 0.2% to 11%, largely driven by their robotics tech & the market still isn’t pricing it in!
2026 will likely be $AMZN's year! https://t.co/17hBkS6LCa
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
It's that time again https://t.co/jJMMGesbEM
tweet
It's that time again https://t.co/jJMMGesbEM
I am ready to get hurt again https://t.co/VH8CONOgix tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
The largest e-commerce company in South Korea is trading near its lowest forward multiple ever.
Forward EV/EBITDA: 19.3x
$CPNG https://t.co/c4d5RHJ5Bp
tweet
The largest e-commerce company in South Korea is trading near its lowest forward multiple ever.
Forward EV/EBITDA: 19.3x
$CPNG https://t.co/c4d5RHJ5Bp
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Page 1.
The Crisis Isn’t the Cause…It’s the Cover
One of the hardest truths in financial history is that governments rarely admit when the system is breaking. Instead, they wait for a story big enough to justify the kind of intervention that would otherwise look reckless. Wars, pandemics, and national security crises often become that story.
Look closely at the past century and a pattern emerges. The financial plumbing is already strained, credit bubbles overextended, currency pegs fraying, leverage piled too high and policymakers face a problem: how to inject massive liquidity without spooking markets or losing political credibility. Then comes the event. A geopolitical shock, a war, or a health crisis gives them cover to do what they couldn’t do in calm times: flip the switch, flood the system, and rewrite the rules in the name of survival.
Think back to the great turning points. In 1914, the gold standard was already cracking before World War I gave governments the excuse to suspend convertibility and unleash bond financed spending. In 1940, the U.S. was still clawing out of depression when WWII allowed Roosevelt to blow out deficits and normalize Fed monetization of Treasury debt. In the late 1960s, Vietnam spending plus domestic programs strained the dollar, but only once the war escalated did policymakers have the justification to tear up Bretton Woods in 1971. After 9/11 and the Iraq War, the U.S. used national security spending as the story, while Greenspan’s Fed quietly opened the spigots to cushion a financial system still reeling from the dot com bust. And in 2020, COVID-19 became the perfect excuse for an unprecedented global money printing campaign, arriving just as repo markets and corporate debt were already flashing stress in late 2019.
The details differ, but the sequencing rhymes. The financial system shows cracks first. Then an event arrives that allows governments to act on a scale they otherwise couldn’t. Liquidity surges are justified as emergency responses, but in practice they are often preemptive rescues of fragile balance sheets.
This isn’t to say the events aren’t real, they are. Wars kill, pandemics devastate, geopolitical shocks reshape the world. But for students of monetary history, the question is whether the timing of interventions is driven only by the events, or also by what was already happening beneath the surface. Were the events the trigger or the excuse?
That’s the pattern I want to explore. When you line up the last century’s great liquidity waves with the geopolitical crises that accompanied them, you start to see that the narrative and the financial mechanics are inseparable. Policymakers need a cover story. And history suggests that the biggest liquidity expansions often arrive not just because of the event, but because the system was breaking beforehand.
tweet
Page 1.
The Crisis Isn’t the Cause…It’s the Cover
One of the hardest truths in financial history is that governments rarely admit when the system is breaking. Instead, they wait for a story big enough to justify the kind of intervention that would otherwise look reckless. Wars, pandemics, and national security crises often become that story.
Look closely at the past century and a pattern emerges. The financial plumbing is already strained, credit bubbles overextended, currency pegs fraying, leverage piled too high and policymakers face a problem: how to inject massive liquidity without spooking markets or losing political credibility. Then comes the event. A geopolitical shock, a war, or a health crisis gives them cover to do what they couldn’t do in calm times: flip the switch, flood the system, and rewrite the rules in the name of survival.
Think back to the great turning points. In 1914, the gold standard was already cracking before World War I gave governments the excuse to suspend convertibility and unleash bond financed spending. In 1940, the U.S. was still clawing out of depression when WWII allowed Roosevelt to blow out deficits and normalize Fed monetization of Treasury debt. In the late 1960s, Vietnam spending plus domestic programs strained the dollar, but only once the war escalated did policymakers have the justification to tear up Bretton Woods in 1971. After 9/11 and the Iraq War, the U.S. used national security spending as the story, while Greenspan’s Fed quietly opened the spigots to cushion a financial system still reeling from the dot com bust. And in 2020, COVID-19 became the perfect excuse for an unprecedented global money printing campaign, arriving just as repo markets and corporate debt were already flashing stress in late 2019.
The details differ, but the sequencing rhymes. The financial system shows cracks first. Then an event arrives that allows governments to act on a scale they otherwise couldn’t. Liquidity surges are justified as emergency responses, but in practice they are often preemptive rescues of fragile balance sheets.
This isn’t to say the events aren’t real, they are. Wars kill, pandemics devastate, geopolitical shocks reshape the world. But for students of monetary history, the question is whether the timing of interventions is driven only by the events, or also by what was already happening beneath the surface. Were the events the trigger or the excuse?
That’s the pattern I want to explore. When you line up the last century’s great liquidity waves with the geopolitical crises that accompanied them, you start to see that the narrative and the financial mechanics are inseparable. Policymakers need a cover story. And history suggests that the biggest liquidity expansions often arrive not just because of the event, but because the system was breaking beforehand.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Giuliano
2025 was not the best year reading-wise, but recapping should help me learn and improve.
These were my reads/studies during the year and a short takeaway from each:
- The Great Gatsby.
Peak literature, or very close thereto.
- The Intelligent Investor.
This is the second time I study this. Masterful work and overview of the investment field and sound ideas to approach it.
- Silent Spring.
Environmental consequences of our abuse of fertilizers and why our mistreating the earth is hurting ecosystems. (1970s)
- The Grapes of Wrath.
There's an idea in the preface I'll forever remember: 'I'm assailed by my own ignorance. No one knows how ill-suited and lazy my mind really is aside from me. I constantly combat this'. (Steinbeck - Nobel laureate).
At times, this book cuts deep.
- Lessons from the Titans.
How little gains in efficiency, better operations, and getting the broad picture right can lead to huge success. You don't need to create the iPhone to do well in business. Similar to The Outsiders.
- The Screwtape Letters.
A very clever way to write about how to live well and not drift toward hell. Can't remember many details though.
- Built From Scratch (Home Depot autobio).
Best business biography I've ever read. All of the ideas I might've read about, these guys applied to build a $300bn company. An astounding number of insights as to how to sensibly run an organization.
- The Art of Power (Jefferson bio).
Amazing individual and politician. Potential role model in so many ways. Extremely cultivated and likeable person, deep thinker across the board, and a doer.
- The Life and Selected Writings of Jefferson.
I needed to dive deeper into his ideas. His writings give a sense of how much he cared and thought about matters related to the soul. Jefferson reminded me of Oppenheimer.
- A Man for All Markets (Thorp bio).
Brilliant individual, but I didn't like the writing. Some ideas I can't get out of my mind: (1) Tweaking a problem slightly can turn it from impossible to possible; (2) Education is software for the brain; (3) "If I don't have an edge, I don't play."
- The Snowball (Buffett bio).
This lets you see other sides of Warren. An extremely calm, erudite appearance hides a high-energy, highly ambitious and tough-to-deal-with individual.
- The Power Law
An account of Silicon Valley's history. A number of insights on how different VC firms and investors have approached it, and how founders view of VC firms has changed over time. I don't remember much detail.
- The Days of the Revolution.
History book covering what led to the independence in Argentina. I didn't like it at all.
- Made in America (Sam Walton autobio).
Sam Walton was among the best past-century entrepreneurs. Extremely hard working and thoughtful person. An interesting idea: when everyone was saying that Walmart was destroying local stores, he reframed it as saying that Walmart was winning because it was actually saving money for consumers. 'Those stores were destined to perish'.
- Buffett Letters (2002)
I read slightly over a decade of Buffett's letters. Astonishingly instructive in investing and accounting matters.
- The Paradox of Choice.
Why options for everything have tended to increase and why that paralyzes us. Unnecessary book, nothing new and it's already old.
- The Double Helix.
The process of discovering the Double Helix in DNA. Watson describes the journey; 2-yr long rollercoaster of emotions. Reminds me of what Feynman spoke about.
- American Prometheus (Oppenheimer).
The Manhattan project, WWII, occurred less than 100 years ago. What a group of coordinated geniuses can accomplish. How fragile things really are.
- Magicians of the Gods.
What if history has been misinterpreted? What if things started earlier? Are we missing out on important insights just because of complacency and human bias?
- Slaughterhouse-Five.
Never connected with Vonnegut.
- Norwegian Wood.
This hurt. A young girl's boyfriend comm[...]
2025 was not the best year reading-wise, but recapping should help me learn and improve.
These were my reads/studies during the year and a short takeaway from each:
- The Great Gatsby.
Peak literature, or very close thereto.
- The Intelligent Investor.
This is the second time I study this. Masterful work and overview of the investment field and sound ideas to approach it.
- Silent Spring.
Environmental consequences of our abuse of fertilizers and why our mistreating the earth is hurting ecosystems. (1970s)
- The Grapes of Wrath.
There's an idea in the preface I'll forever remember: 'I'm assailed by my own ignorance. No one knows how ill-suited and lazy my mind really is aside from me. I constantly combat this'. (Steinbeck - Nobel laureate).
At times, this book cuts deep.
- Lessons from the Titans.
How little gains in efficiency, better operations, and getting the broad picture right can lead to huge success. You don't need to create the iPhone to do well in business. Similar to The Outsiders.
- The Screwtape Letters.
A very clever way to write about how to live well and not drift toward hell. Can't remember many details though.
- Built From Scratch (Home Depot autobio).
Best business biography I've ever read. All of the ideas I might've read about, these guys applied to build a $300bn company. An astounding number of insights as to how to sensibly run an organization.
- The Art of Power (Jefferson bio).
Amazing individual and politician. Potential role model in so many ways. Extremely cultivated and likeable person, deep thinker across the board, and a doer.
- The Life and Selected Writings of Jefferson.
I needed to dive deeper into his ideas. His writings give a sense of how much he cared and thought about matters related to the soul. Jefferson reminded me of Oppenheimer.
- A Man for All Markets (Thorp bio).
Brilliant individual, but I didn't like the writing. Some ideas I can't get out of my mind: (1) Tweaking a problem slightly can turn it from impossible to possible; (2) Education is software for the brain; (3) "If I don't have an edge, I don't play."
- The Snowball (Buffett bio).
This lets you see other sides of Warren. An extremely calm, erudite appearance hides a high-energy, highly ambitious and tough-to-deal-with individual.
- The Power Law
An account of Silicon Valley's history. A number of insights on how different VC firms and investors have approached it, and how founders view of VC firms has changed over time. I don't remember much detail.
- The Days of the Revolution.
History book covering what led to the independence in Argentina. I didn't like it at all.
- Made in America (Sam Walton autobio).
Sam Walton was among the best past-century entrepreneurs. Extremely hard working and thoughtful person. An interesting idea: when everyone was saying that Walmart was destroying local stores, he reframed it as saying that Walmart was winning because it was actually saving money for consumers. 'Those stores were destined to perish'.
- Buffett Letters (2002)
I read slightly over a decade of Buffett's letters. Astonishingly instructive in investing and accounting matters.
- The Paradox of Choice.
Why options for everything have tended to increase and why that paralyzes us. Unnecessary book, nothing new and it's already old.
- The Double Helix.
The process of discovering the Double Helix in DNA. Watson describes the journey; 2-yr long rollercoaster of emotions. Reminds me of what Feynman spoke about.
- American Prometheus (Oppenheimer).
The Manhattan project, WWII, occurred less than 100 years ago. What a group of coordinated geniuses can accomplish. How fragile things really are.
- Magicians of the Gods.
What if history has been misinterpreted? What if things started earlier? Are we missing out on important insights just because of complacency and human bias?
- Slaughterhouse-Five.
Never connected with Vonnegut.
- Norwegian Wood.
This hurt. A young girl's boyfriend comm[...]