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The Few Bets That Matter
$GOLD is up ~70% YTD.
$SILVER is up ~142% YTD.
Both moves reflect a growing lack of trust in fiat currencies and the global financial system, including the U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver capitalizations are ~2.25x and ~17.8x that of $BTC. That gap is the Bitcoin bull case.
A time will come when Bitcoin will no longer be distorted by bad actors and excessive leverage, and Iistitutionalization is accelerating that process - through ETF and hedge funds interests.
When that happens, there is no reason for $BTC to be worth less than $GOLD over the long term.
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$GOLD is up ~70% YTD.
$SILVER is up ~142% YTD.
Both moves reflect a growing lack of trust in fiat currencies and the global financial system, including the U.S. dollar.
Gold and silver capitalizations are ~2.25x and ~17.8x that of $BTC. That gap is the Bitcoin bull case.
A time will come when Bitcoin will no longer be distorted by bad actors and excessive leverage, and Iistitutionalization is accelerating that process - through ETF and hedge funds interests.
When that happens, there is no reason for $BTC to be worth less than $GOLD over the long term.
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 We're doing a holiday sale on Quiver.
Most of our stuff is free, but premium is pretty nice for live data alerts and helps support the rest of the site.
Half-off if you sign up before NYE.
Join here: https://t.co/2NJaK51aVx https://t.co/tWdU7v415E
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🚨 We're doing a holiday sale on Quiver.
Most of our stuff is free, but premium is pretty nice for live data alerts and helps support the rest of the site.
Half-off if you sign up before NYE.
Join here: https://t.co/2NJaK51aVx https://t.co/tWdU7v415E
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
📺 US TV Time November 2025:
Streaming 46.7% (+5.1pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.1pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.3% (+0.6pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (+0.1pp Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.1pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.9% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/o627Rjjs2u
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📺 US TV Time November 2025:
Streaming 46.7% (+5.1pp Y/Y).
• YouTube 12.9% (+2.1pp Y/Y).
• Netflix 8.3% (+0.6pp Y/Y).
• Disney apps 4.8% (+0.1pp Y/Y).
• Prime Video 3.8% (+0.1pp Y/Y).
• Roku Channel 2.9% (+1.0pp Y/Y).
$GOOG $NFLX $AMZN $DIS $ROKU
Source: Nielsen https://t.co/o627Rjjs2u
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
If you invested $10,000 in Nike 10 years ago, you would have...
$9,860 today.
$NKE https://t.co/e1f38Hd4xC
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If you invested $10,000 in Nike 10 years ago, you would have...
$9,860 today.
$NKE https://t.co/e1f38Hd4xC
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Auto Delinquencies Are Already at Crisis Levels
What makes this moment worse than 2008 at the household level is that the affordability stress is already visible before unemployment has really broken. Auto delinquencies are now higher than they were pre GFC with overall 90 day delinquencies around 5% and subprime 60 day delinquencies near 6.65% even though joblessness is still relatively low. That tells you the problem isn’t mass layoffs yet, it’s that the cost of everyday life has outrun incomes. In 2008, households cracked after jobs disappeared and housing collapsed; this time, the stress is showing up first with unemployment still slowly inching up. What’s rising now and likely to push this closer to a 2008 style outcome is the spillover because lender failures have already begun, job quality is slipping, savings are depleted, and delinquencies are spreading beyond isolated cases. If unemployment drifts higher in 2026, this won’t need a housing crash to spread, the damage is already baked into household balance sheets.
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Auto Delinquencies Are Already at Crisis Levels
What makes this moment worse than 2008 at the household level is that the affordability stress is already visible before unemployment has really broken. Auto delinquencies are now higher than they were pre GFC with overall 90 day delinquencies around 5% and subprime 60 day delinquencies near 6.65% even though joblessness is still relatively low. That tells you the problem isn’t mass layoffs yet, it’s that the cost of everyday life has outrun incomes. In 2008, households cracked after jobs disappeared and housing collapsed; this time, the stress is showing up first with unemployment still slowly inching up. What’s rising now and likely to push this closer to a 2008 style outcome is the spillover because lender failures have already begun, job quality is slipping, savings are depleted, and delinquencies are spreading beyond isolated cases. If unemployment drifts higher in 2026, this won’t need a housing crash to spread, the damage is already baked into household balance sheets.
Auto Deliquencies Hit Record High as Consumers Caught Off Guard by Soaring Payments
#MacroEdge tweet
EndGame Macro
Student Loan Garnishment Will Tighten Credit More Than People Expect
If this resumes the week of Jan 7 it’s a real mechanical hit to household cash flow and credit quality. The initial rollout may start with about 1,000 borrowers getting notices in the first week, but the bigger point is scale because there is roughly 5.3 million borrowers already in default (360+ days), and that pool could swell toward 10 million as delinquencies roll into default. Once wage garnishment kicks in, the government can take up to 15% of disposable pay without a court order, which means less money for rent, food, and car payments exactly where late cycle stress already shows up.
Credit wise, delinquencies and default reporting tends to produce immediate score drops of 100–175 points, and defaults can sit on a credit file for 7 years, shrinking the lendable population fast. For banks, this is the quiet but consequential effect where a growing slice of borrowers moves from current to clearly higher risk, forcing tighter underwriting, fewer approvals, and harsher pricing across the board. At the same time, households will start prioritizing debts they can’t escape like paying student loans to avoid garnishment while letting credit cards or auto loans slide which doesn’t reduce overall stress so much as redirect it, setting up the next pocket of delinquencies rather than eliminating the problem.
tweet
Student Loan Garnishment Will Tighten Credit More Than People Expect
If this resumes the week of Jan 7 it’s a real mechanical hit to household cash flow and credit quality. The initial rollout may start with about 1,000 borrowers getting notices in the first week, but the bigger point is scale because there is roughly 5.3 million borrowers already in default (360+ days), and that pool could swell toward 10 million as delinquencies roll into default. Once wage garnishment kicks in, the government can take up to 15% of disposable pay without a court order, which means less money for rent, food, and car payments exactly where late cycle stress already shows up.
Credit wise, delinquencies and default reporting tends to produce immediate score drops of 100–175 points, and defaults can sit on a credit file for 7 years, shrinking the lendable population fast. For banks, this is the quiet but consequential effect where a growing slice of borrowers moves from current to clearly higher risk, forcing tighter underwriting, fewer approvals, and harsher pricing across the board. At the same time, households will start prioritizing debts they can’t escape like paying student loans to avoid garnishment while letting credit cards or auto loans slide which doesn’t reduce overall stress so much as redirect it, setting up the next pocket of delinquencies rather than eliminating the problem.
Trump Administration to start seizing wages of defaulted student loan borrowers in January
#MacroEdge tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) on X
Trump Administration to start seizing wages of defaulted student loan borrowers in January
#MacroEdge
#MacroEdge
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Wasteland Capital
The day before Christmas Eve, and $MU went above $280, new all time high, and +233% YTD.
Someone has been a very, very good boy! https://t.co/WXB6J92sHB
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The day before Christmas Eve, and $MU went above $280, new all time high, and +233% YTD.
Someone has been a very, very good boy! https://t.co/WXB6J92sHB
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Clark Square Capital
RT @mihaljevic: Great investing follows for 2026:
@ChrisBloomstran
@ElliotTurn
@tsaicapital
@MohnishPabrai
@PenderDave
@BillBrewsterTBB
@danielgladis
@Logos_LP
@LCTempleton
@GreenhavenRoad
@BobRobotti
@bogumil_nyc
@MikeFritzell
@ClarkSquareCap
@HiddenGemsInves
@david_katunaric
@evfcfaddict
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RT @mihaljevic: Great investing follows for 2026:
@ChrisBloomstran
@ElliotTurn
@tsaicapital
@MohnishPabrai
@PenderDave
@BillBrewsterTBB
@danielgladis
@Logos_LP
@LCTempleton
@GreenhavenRoad
@BobRobotti
@bogumil_nyc
@MikeFritzell
@ClarkSquareCap
@HiddenGemsInves
@david_katunaric
@evfcfaddict
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Clark Square Capital
RT @stoic_point: SAKS GOING BK
Core to our $LUXE pitch: industry structure SIGNIFICANTLY improves, partly from a transformative deal, but also competitors keep disappearing. Mkt chart needs constant updates: #3 Saks going BK. #4 FTCH parent raided by K-Feds. #8 Ssense filed for BK. Meanwhile... https://t.co/xuzo0Q71IH
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RT @stoic_point: SAKS GOING BK
Core to our $LUXE pitch: industry structure SIGNIFICANTLY improves, partly from a transformative deal, but also competitors keep disappearing. Mkt chart needs constant updates: #3 Saks going BK. #4 FTCH parent raided by K-Feds. #8 Ssense filed for BK. Meanwhile... https://t.co/xuzo0Q71IH
(1/3) Last month we pitched LuxExperience $LUXE as a long at the wonderful Spring Investor Summit hosted by @SumZero and @AlphaSenseInc. Several have asked so below is a link to our slides.
Disclaimer: note this post is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell any security and is also not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision. This post is not an offer or solicitation to buy/sell any security and is also not investment advice. Investors should conduct their own research or consult their financial advisor prior to making any investment decision) tweet