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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$NVDA trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~26x
2026 EPS➡️ $4.69 (+56%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $7.52 (+60%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $9.68 (+28%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS of $9.68:
28x | 21%
27x | 19%
26x | 17%
25x | 15%
24x | 13%
23x | 10%
22x | 8% https://t.co/epaTYgcq8w
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$NVDA trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~26x
2026 EPS➡️ $4.69 (+56%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $7.52 (+60%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $9.68 (+28%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS of $9.68:
28x | 21%
27x | 19%
26x | 17%
25x | 15%
24x | 13%
23x | 10%
22x | 8% https://t.co/epaTYgcq8w
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Quiver Quantitative
🚨 We posted this report one year ago.
$HL has now risen 273% since Debbie Wasserman Schultz' purchase.
It's up another 7% today. https://t.co/lVGEanDVxC
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🚨 We posted this report one year ago.
$HL has now risen 273% since Debbie Wasserman Schultz' purchase.
It's up another 7% today. https://t.co/lVGEanDVxC
tweet
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EndGame Macro
When the Fourth Turning Begins, Markets Reprice Trust And Not Just Assets
The Dow to Gold ratio isn’t about calling the top in stocks or predicting a crash next week. It’s a long arc signal about confidence. When the ratio is high, it usually means investors are comfortable owning claims on future growth in stocks, earnings, promises. When it rolls over and trends lower for years, it’s usually because that confidence is fading and people start preferring assets that don’t depend on anyone else keeping their word. Gold doesn’t need earnings, policy support, or growth assumptions. It just sits there. A falling ratio is the market quietly saying that it trusts certainty more than optimism right now.
Why The Turning Matters
What stands out on this chart isn’t the volatility, it’s the duration. Every major decline in the ratio wasn’t a quick panic; it was a multi year repricing tied to a broader shift in the system. Stocks didn’t always implode overnight. Sometimes they went sideways for a decade while gold did the work. That’s the part people miss. You don’t need a dramatic crash for this ratio to fall hard. You just need an environment where real returns on financial assets are capped, diluted, or slowly eroded while uncertainty keeps rising.
How This Lines Up With A Fourth Turning Mindset
This is where the historical lens helps. Periods that later get described as crisis eras tend to share the same feel where institutions lose trust, policy becomes reactive instead of principled, and stability gets prioritized over efficiency. In those moments, markets stop rewarding growth narratives and start rewarding durability. That’s exactly the backdrop where the Dow to Gold ratio tends to compress. Not because people suddenly hate stocks, but because the system itself is being renegotiated on who pays, who’s protected, and what really counts as wealth.
My View
The chart is whispering regime change. It’s telling you that the next decade may look less like the last one, less about compounding returns and more about protecting purchasing power through uncertainty. Whether that plays out through lower stock prices, higher gold prices, or a long stretch of frustration in between, the message is the same that when confidence becomes scarce, collateral starts to matter more than stories.
If you want more information on The Fourth Turning this was @HoweGeneration interview with @adamtaggart on his podcast @thoughtfulmoney back in May.
tweet
When the Fourth Turning Begins, Markets Reprice Trust And Not Just Assets
The Dow to Gold ratio isn’t about calling the top in stocks or predicting a crash next week. It’s a long arc signal about confidence. When the ratio is high, it usually means investors are comfortable owning claims on future growth in stocks, earnings, promises. When it rolls over and trends lower for years, it’s usually because that confidence is fading and people start preferring assets that don’t depend on anyone else keeping their word. Gold doesn’t need earnings, policy support, or growth assumptions. It just sits there. A falling ratio is the market quietly saying that it trusts certainty more than optimism right now.
Why The Turning Matters
What stands out on this chart isn’t the volatility, it’s the duration. Every major decline in the ratio wasn’t a quick panic; it was a multi year repricing tied to a broader shift in the system. Stocks didn’t always implode overnight. Sometimes they went sideways for a decade while gold did the work. That’s the part people miss. You don’t need a dramatic crash for this ratio to fall hard. You just need an environment where real returns on financial assets are capped, diluted, or slowly eroded while uncertainty keeps rising.
How This Lines Up With A Fourth Turning Mindset
This is where the historical lens helps. Periods that later get described as crisis eras tend to share the same feel where institutions lose trust, policy becomes reactive instead of principled, and stability gets prioritized over efficiency. In those moments, markets stop rewarding growth narratives and start rewarding durability. That’s exactly the backdrop where the Dow to Gold ratio tends to compress. Not because people suddenly hate stocks, but because the system itself is being renegotiated on who pays, who’s protected, and what really counts as wealth.
My View
The chart is whispering regime change. It’s telling you that the next decade may look less like the last one, less about compounding returns and more about protecting purchasing power through uncertainty. Whether that plays out through lower stock prices, higher gold prices, or a long stretch of frustration in between, the message is the same that when confidence becomes scarce, collateral starts to matter more than stories.
If you want more information on The Fourth Turning this was @HoweGeneration interview with @adamtaggart on his podcast @thoughtfulmoney back in May.
Dow to Gold Ratio -- the 4th turning is upon us -- choose your next moves wisely... https://t.co/dyOuxCedUM tweet
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EndGame Macro
Japan Is Letting Rates Rise for One Reason…To Fight What Comes Next
For most of the 2000s and 2010s, Japan’s bond market was saying we don’t believe in growth, we don’t believe in inflation, and we don’t believe the future will look much different from the past. You can see it in the way the 10 year, 20 year, and 40 year yields sink and then sit near zero for years. That wasn’t just pessimism. It was the Bank of Japan actively trying to stop the country from sliding into a permanent debt deflation loop with weak demand, falling prices, cash hoarding, and even weaker demand.
Then the picture changes. From around 2023 onward, yields rise across the curve, with the long end leading. Today the curve is clearly steeper…roughly 2% on the 10 year, around 3% on the 20 year, and high 3s on the 40 year. In Japan, that’s not noise. It’s a regime shift both in policy and in mindset.
What Japan Has Really Been Fighting
Japan’s deflation problem is about behavior. Businesses didn’t invest because they didn’t expect demand. Workers didn’t get sustained wage growth. Households hoarded cash because tomorrow was expected to be cheaper than today. The price level was the symptom; the belief system was the disease.
So the goal was never simply make prices go up. It was to break the expectation that nothing ever improves.
The Plumbing Behind The Fight
Japan’s strategy has been straightforward, even if extreme…
First, suppress yields and expand the balance sheet. When the BOJ buys bonds, it removes duration from the market and floods the system with liquidity, pushing capital out of safe assets and into risk, lending, and spending.
Second, anchor expectations with tools like Yield Curve Control. Capping the 10 year wasn’t just about rates, it was a signal that financial conditions would not be allowed to tighten enough to restart deflation.
Third, accept currency weakness as a feature, not a bug. A softer yen imports inflation and reminds households that holding cash isn’t risk free.
So Why Are Yields Rising Now?
Because Japan is stuck between two dangers…deflation returning, and the bond market losing all credibility. Holding yields at zero forever distorts the financial system, breaks price discovery, and turns the BOJ into the entire market. At some point, that becomes its own instability.
Letting yields rise carefully is an attempt to normalize without losing control. The fact that the long end is rising faster matters. It shows the market repricing time risk and fiscal risk again, especially with Japan’s massive debt load.
What Happens When The Global Downturn Hits
If a real global slowdown takes hold, Japanese yields fall again. Even from these higher levels.
A downturn pulls capital into safe assets, drags down inflation expectations, and strengthens the yen. And a stronger yen is imported disinflation, exactly what Japan fears most. Exports weaken, prices cool, wages lose momentum, and the old deflationary loop tries to reassert itself.
Why This Chart Is A Warning And A Setup
If that happens, Japan won’t stay normalized. It will pause, then ease through rate cuts, renewed purchases, or some form of volatility control. They may not call it YCC again, but the behavior will rhyme.
The key insight is this…Japan is lifting yields now to rebuild policy room. Zero forever leaves you powerless when the cycle turns. A controlled rise today gives them something to cut tomorrow.
That’s what this chart is really predicting. Japan is trying to escape deflation, but it’s doing so with one eye firmly on the next global downturn because Japan knows better than anyone that deflation never disappears. It just waits.
tweet
Japan Is Letting Rates Rise for One Reason…To Fight What Comes Next
For most of the 2000s and 2010s, Japan’s bond market was saying we don’t believe in growth, we don’t believe in inflation, and we don’t believe the future will look much different from the past. You can see it in the way the 10 year, 20 year, and 40 year yields sink and then sit near zero for years. That wasn’t just pessimism. It was the Bank of Japan actively trying to stop the country from sliding into a permanent debt deflation loop with weak demand, falling prices, cash hoarding, and even weaker demand.
Then the picture changes. From around 2023 onward, yields rise across the curve, with the long end leading. Today the curve is clearly steeper…roughly 2% on the 10 year, around 3% on the 20 year, and high 3s on the 40 year. In Japan, that’s not noise. It’s a regime shift both in policy and in mindset.
What Japan Has Really Been Fighting
Japan’s deflation problem is about behavior. Businesses didn’t invest because they didn’t expect demand. Workers didn’t get sustained wage growth. Households hoarded cash because tomorrow was expected to be cheaper than today. The price level was the symptom; the belief system was the disease.
So the goal was never simply make prices go up. It was to break the expectation that nothing ever improves.
The Plumbing Behind The Fight
Japan’s strategy has been straightforward, even if extreme…
First, suppress yields and expand the balance sheet. When the BOJ buys bonds, it removes duration from the market and floods the system with liquidity, pushing capital out of safe assets and into risk, lending, and spending.
Second, anchor expectations with tools like Yield Curve Control. Capping the 10 year wasn’t just about rates, it was a signal that financial conditions would not be allowed to tighten enough to restart deflation.
Third, accept currency weakness as a feature, not a bug. A softer yen imports inflation and reminds households that holding cash isn’t risk free.
So Why Are Yields Rising Now?
Because Japan is stuck between two dangers…deflation returning, and the bond market losing all credibility. Holding yields at zero forever distorts the financial system, breaks price discovery, and turns the BOJ into the entire market. At some point, that becomes its own instability.
Letting yields rise carefully is an attempt to normalize without losing control. The fact that the long end is rising faster matters. It shows the market repricing time risk and fiscal risk again, especially with Japan’s massive debt load.
What Happens When The Global Downturn Hits
If a real global slowdown takes hold, Japanese yields fall again. Even from these higher levels.
A downturn pulls capital into safe assets, drags down inflation expectations, and strengthens the yen. And a stronger yen is imported disinflation, exactly what Japan fears most. Exports weaken, prices cool, wages lose momentum, and the old deflationary loop tries to reassert itself.
Why This Chart Is A Warning And A Setup
If that happens, Japan won’t stay normalized. It will pause, then ease through rate cuts, renewed purchases, or some form of volatility control. They may not call it YCC again, but the behavior will rhyme.
The key insight is this…Japan is lifting yields now to rebuild policy room. Zero forever leaves you powerless when the cycle turns. A controlled rise today gives them something to cut tomorrow.
That’s what this chart is really predicting. Japan is trying to escape deflation, but it’s doing so with one eye firmly on the next global downturn because Japan knows better than anyone that deflation never disappears. It just waits.
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Last year, we reported extensively on a suspicious purchase of Viasat stock by a member of Congress.
$VSAT is now up 420% since our reports.
Look at this: https://t.co/OocHtlDvK7
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Last year, we reported extensively on a suspicious purchase of Viasat stock by a member of Congress.
$VSAT is now up 420% since our reports.
Look at this: https://t.co/OocHtlDvK7
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$UPS has one of the best charts in the entire market and will trade at $150 sooner rather than later.
Another stock beaten down during the AI trade which is now reclaiming key levels and is starting a clear uptrend.
Exactly like $DG & $DLTR did earlier this year. Not very sexy, but efficient if you're looking for safe returns.
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$UPS has one of the best charts in the entire market and will trade at $150 sooner rather than later.
Another stock beaten down during the AI trade which is now reclaiming key levels and is starting a clear uptrend.
Exactly like $DG & $DLTR did earlier this year. Not very sexy, but efficient if you're looking for safe returns.
934 views. Six months ago.
Since, $DG is up 44% and $DLTR 45%.
No one cared. Because they aren't the next big thing.
But money isn't always made on the next big thing. tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$BABA is already the AI winner in China, and that lead should only widen from here.
$NVDA is taking H200 orders again, and $BABA is also in talks with $AMD for more GPUs.
Long story short: preferred access to better hardware, largest market share, vertically integrated compute and government backing in the world’s second-fastest growing AI market.
Still largely undervalued. Still underappreciated.
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$BABA is already the AI winner in China, and that lead should only widen from here.
$NVDA is taking H200 orders again, and $BABA is also in talks with $AMD for more GPUs.
Long story short: preferred access to better hardware, largest market share, vertically integrated compute and government backing in the world’s second-fastest growing AI market.
Still largely undervalued. Still underappreciated.
$BABA will crumble under massive Chinese compute demand. tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
The market keeps punishing $NFLX on the belief it will win the bid for $WBD.
Hard to say how low it will push the stock, but it feels starts to feel like we’ll get a major buying opportunity out of it.
Yes, adding ~$75B in debt is scary. But if the deal happens, the value created should more than offset the costs.
Not a buyer today, but I’m almost certain I’ll be buying in the coming months/years if the stock keeps falling.
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The market keeps punishing $NFLX on the belief it will win the bid for $WBD.
Hard to say how low it will push the stock, but it feels starts to feel like we’ll get a major buying opportunity out of it.
Yes, adding ~$75B in debt is scary. But if the deal happens, the value created should more than offset the costs.
Not a buyer today, but I’m almost certain I’ll be buying in the coming months/years if the stock keeps falling.
tweet
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Fiscal.ai
What an insane stat.
Shares of Microsoft were under water for 15 years after their dot-com peak.
But from that peak to today... they've still doubled the S&P 500 total return.
$MSFT https://t.co/Pkz6D13m10
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What an insane stat.
Shares of Microsoft were under water for 15 years after their dot-com peak.
But from that peak to today... they've still doubled the S&P 500 total return.
$MSFT https://t.co/Pkz6D13m10
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