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12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
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RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇 tweet
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RT @WealthyReadings: The AI trade isn't over.
$NBIS $ALAB
👇 https://t.co/g2onKBMbzw
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RT @WealthyReadings: The AI trade isn't over.
$NBIS $ALAB
👇 https://t.co/g2onKBMbzw
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They said that China was uninvestable at the start of the year and that no stocks were worth buying.
It ended up outperforming the U.S. and many other markets - and it’ll continue doing so.
The best asset remains $BABA, with many other stocks ready to fly through the year while they continue to ignore the country.
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They said that China was uninvestable at the start of the year and that no stocks were worth buying.
It ended up outperforming the U.S. and many other markets - and it’ll continue doing so.
The best asset remains $BABA, with many other stocks ready to fly through the year while they continue to ignore the country.
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Touching the Hull And How the U.S. Is Rewriting the Rules of Sanctions Enforcement
This isn’t really about one tanker, or even Venezuela’s oil in isolation. It’s the U.S. turning sanctions from something you litigate into something you physically enforce. Boarding ships, seizing cargo, and openly talking about pursuing additional vessels is a signal that sanctions evasion is no longer a paperwork game. The audience isn’t just Caracas, it’s the entire ecosystem that makes gray market oil move including ship owners, insurers, brokers, banks, port services, and the flags of convenience system that shields them. Once enforcement touches hulls instead of spreadsheets, the risk math changes fast.
Why this goes beyond Venezuela
Venezuela’s barrels alone don’t move global oil prices much. The pressure comes from what enforcement does to the plumbing. Insurance premiums rise, counterparties disappear, financing costs jump, routes get longer, and margins compress. That’s how sanctions actually bite by making the whole shadow supply chain fragile and expensive. Even traders who never touch Venezuelan crude pay attention, because the same tactics apply anywhere sanctions are being skirted.
The China angle and why it’s indirect
Most of these vessels operate under flags like Panama and move as part of a dark fleet. China’s role is as the end buyer of discounted crude, not the operator of the ships themselves. That’s intentional. Washington is squeezing the middle m of logistics, insurance, shipping rather than confronting Beijing directly. It raises friction and cost without forcing an overt diplomatic clash.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Angle
The U.S. is reasserting control in the Western Hemisphere, not just diplomatically but physically, to push out rival influence and lock down energy flows close to home. That’s why this feels different from past sanctions cycles. Its enforcement paired with deterrence, a reminder that the U.S. still controls maritime, legal, and financial choke points in its near abroad.
The real risk
The upside, from Washington’s perspective, is restoring credibility. Sanctions only work if people believe enforcement is real. The risk is escalation with Venezuelan naval escorts, tighter standoffs at sea, and precedent setting behavior that other regions may mirror. If this stays contained, the impact shows up as higher friction and volatility, not a supply shock. If it spirals, it stops being a sanctions story and starts looking like a geopolitical one with spillovers into energy markets, insurance, and global risk sentiment.
My View
This is not about oil shortages tomorrow. It’s a calculated move to reprice risk in the shadow energy trade and reassert hemispheric control. The real question is how far the U.S. is willing to go to make sanctions enforcement physical again, and how the rest of the system adapts once it realizes the rules have changed.
tweet
Touching the Hull And How the U.S. Is Rewriting the Rules of Sanctions Enforcement
This isn’t really about one tanker, or even Venezuela’s oil in isolation. It’s the U.S. turning sanctions from something you litigate into something you physically enforce. Boarding ships, seizing cargo, and openly talking about pursuing additional vessels is a signal that sanctions evasion is no longer a paperwork game. The audience isn’t just Caracas, it’s the entire ecosystem that makes gray market oil move including ship owners, insurers, brokers, banks, port services, and the flags of convenience system that shields them. Once enforcement touches hulls instead of spreadsheets, the risk math changes fast.
Why this goes beyond Venezuela
Venezuela’s barrels alone don’t move global oil prices much. The pressure comes from what enforcement does to the plumbing. Insurance premiums rise, counterparties disappear, financing costs jump, routes get longer, and margins compress. That’s how sanctions actually bite by making the whole shadow supply chain fragile and expensive. Even traders who never touch Venezuelan crude pay attention, because the same tactics apply anywhere sanctions are being skirted.
The China angle and why it’s indirect
Most of these vessels operate under flags like Panama and move as part of a dark fleet. China’s role is as the end buyer of discounted crude, not the operator of the ships themselves. That’s intentional. Washington is squeezing the middle m of logistics, insurance, shipping rather than confronting Beijing directly. It raises friction and cost without forcing an overt diplomatic clash.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Angle
The U.S. is reasserting control in the Western Hemisphere, not just diplomatically but physically, to push out rival influence and lock down energy flows close to home. That’s why this feels different from past sanctions cycles. Its enforcement paired with deterrence, a reminder that the U.S. still controls maritime, legal, and financial choke points in its near abroad.
The real risk
The upside, from Washington’s perspective, is restoring credibility. Sanctions only work if people believe enforcement is real. The risk is escalation with Venezuelan naval escorts, tighter standoffs at sea, and precedent setting behavior that other regions may mirror. If this stays contained, the impact shows up as higher friction and volatility, not a supply shock. If it spirals, it stops being a sanctions story and starts looking like a geopolitical one with spillovers into energy markets, insurance, and global risk sentiment.
My View
This is not about oil shortages tomorrow. It’s a calculated move to reprice risk in the shadow energy trade and reassert hemispheric control. The real question is how far the U.S. is willing to go to make sanctions enforcement physical again, and how the rest of the system adapts once it realizes the rules have changed.
BREAKING: The US has seized a 3rd oil tanker near Venezuela tweet
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A Single Substation Failure And A Citywide Wake Up Call
On Saturday, December 20, a fire at a PG&E substation near 8th and Mission knocked out power to roughly 130,000 customers, about one third of San Francisco. Entire neighborhoods went dark at once including the Richmond, Seacliff, the Presidio, Outer and Inner Sunset, Golden Gate Heights, Forest Knolls and Forest Hill, with knock on effects through Downtown, Union Square, the Financial District, SoMa, and the Mission.
As of today most power had been restored, but 16,000–21,000 residents were still without electricity as crews continued repairs. What this exposed is how fast daily life unravels when power disappears. Transit stalled as Powell Street and Civic Center BART stations closed, Muni lines were disrupted, and traffic lights failed across major corridors. Businesses shut mid weekend, restaurants lost refrigeration, payment systems went offline, and Waymo suspended self driving service after cars stalled at dead intersections. In a dense city, electricity isn’t just lighting; it’s transportation, payments, safety systems, and basic mobility. When a single substation fails, everything downstream feels it within minutes.
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A Single Substation Failure And A Citywide Wake Up Call
On Saturday, December 20, a fire at a PG&E substation near 8th and Mission knocked out power to roughly 130,000 customers, about one third of San Francisco. Entire neighborhoods went dark at once including the Richmond, Seacliff, the Presidio, Outer and Inner Sunset, Golden Gate Heights, Forest Knolls and Forest Hill, with knock on effects through Downtown, Union Square, the Financial District, SoMa, and the Mission.
As of today most power had been restored, but 16,000–21,000 residents were still without electricity as crews continued repairs. What this exposed is how fast daily life unravels when power disappears. Transit stalled as Powell Street and Civic Center BART stations closed, Muni lines were disrupted, and traffic lights failed across major corridors. Businesses shut mid weekend, restaurants lost refrigeration, payment systems went offline, and Waymo suspended self driving service after cars stalled at dead intersections. In a dense city, electricity isn’t just lighting; it’s transportation, payments, safety systems, and basic mobility. When a single substation fails, everything downstream feels it within minutes.
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Banks Look Healthy Until You Ask Who They’re Lending To
The December 19 H.8 tells a pretty clean late cycle story. Banks are still expanding, but they’re doing it with less liquidity and more exposure to the parts of the system that matter most when conditions tighten. As of the week ending December 10, total commercial bank assets are about $24.5T, bank credit is $18.9T, and loans and leases sit around $13.3T all higher than mid year. The change is on the cushion side. Cash assets have slid from roughly $3.38T in June to about $2.9–$3.0T now. There is more lending but less cash on hand. That’s not a crisis by itself, but it absolutely changes how stress would spread if something breaks.
Where the Risk Is Quietly Migrating
The composition of that growth matters far more than the headline totals. Loans to non depository financial institutions (NDFIs) have jumped from about $1.57T in May to roughly $1.81T by mid December. These aren’t households or operating businesses they’re funds, mortgage credit intermediaries, private equity vehicles, hedge funds, insurance related entities, securitization vehicles, and other financial middlemen. In calm markets, this credit looks fine. When volatility hits, these are the borrowers that tend to all need liquidity at the same time, which is how funding stress accelerates.
By contrast, traditional C&I lending is basically flat around $2.7T, construction and land development loans have drifted lower to about $455B, and CRE overall is still inching higher near $3.07T. That mix says banks are cautious about new real economy activity, even as exposure to the existing asset stock keeps building.
Why This Lines Up With the Bankruptcy Data
That balance sheet picture matches what we’re seeing in business stress. Through September 2025, there were about 8,937 Chapter 11 filings including Subchapter V, with 767 commercial Chapter 11s and 210 Subchapter V elections in September alone. On the surface, that looks manageable because it’s below crisis era peaks. But in practice, it means a growing share of stress is being worked through smaller, faster restructurings that don’t look dramatic in aggregate data. Distress is rising it’s just being absorbed quietly.
Why This Setup Matters
Two things stand out to me. First, liquidity is being used up. Cash is shrinking while loan growth is running north of 6%, and the allowance for loan and lease losses is still hovering around $203B, basically flat, despite a larger and more complex loan book. Second, risk is drifting downstream away from plain vanilla lending and toward nonbank financial exposures and smaller business restructurings that don’t immediately trip system wide alarms.
My View
Banks are still extending credit, drawing down cash, and increasingly financing the nonbank financial system at the same time that business failures are rising, just not in a way that looks explosive. That works fine when markets are calm. It’s exactly the setup where pressure shows up first when volatility spikes, funding tightens, or confidence slips. The H.8 and the bankruptcy data are quietly telling you where the stress is being parked and where it’s most likely to surface if conditions turn.
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Banks Look Healthy Until You Ask Who They’re Lending To
The December 19 H.8 tells a pretty clean late cycle story. Banks are still expanding, but they’re doing it with less liquidity and more exposure to the parts of the system that matter most when conditions tighten. As of the week ending December 10, total commercial bank assets are about $24.5T, bank credit is $18.9T, and loans and leases sit around $13.3T all higher than mid year. The change is on the cushion side. Cash assets have slid from roughly $3.38T in June to about $2.9–$3.0T now. There is more lending but less cash on hand. That’s not a crisis by itself, but it absolutely changes how stress would spread if something breaks.
Where the Risk Is Quietly Migrating
The composition of that growth matters far more than the headline totals. Loans to non depository financial institutions (NDFIs) have jumped from about $1.57T in May to roughly $1.81T by mid December. These aren’t households or operating businesses they’re funds, mortgage credit intermediaries, private equity vehicles, hedge funds, insurance related entities, securitization vehicles, and other financial middlemen. In calm markets, this credit looks fine. When volatility hits, these are the borrowers that tend to all need liquidity at the same time, which is how funding stress accelerates.
By contrast, traditional C&I lending is basically flat around $2.7T, construction and land development loans have drifted lower to about $455B, and CRE overall is still inching higher near $3.07T. That mix says banks are cautious about new real economy activity, even as exposure to the existing asset stock keeps building.
Why This Lines Up With the Bankruptcy Data
That balance sheet picture matches what we’re seeing in business stress. Through September 2025, there were about 8,937 Chapter 11 filings including Subchapter V, with 767 commercial Chapter 11s and 210 Subchapter V elections in September alone. On the surface, that looks manageable because it’s below crisis era peaks. But in practice, it means a growing share of stress is being worked through smaller, faster restructurings that don’t look dramatic in aggregate data. Distress is rising it’s just being absorbed quietly.
Why This Setup Matters
Two things stand out to me. First, liquidity is being used up. Cash is shrinking while loan growth is running north of 6%, and the allowance for loan and lease losses is still hovering around $203B, basically flat, despite a larger and more complex loan book. Second, risk is drifting downstream away from plain vanilla lending and toward nonbank financial exposures and smaller business restructurings that don’t immediately trip system wide alarms.
My View
Banks are still extending credit, drawing down cash, and increasingly financing the nonbank financial system at the same time that business failures are rising, just not in a way that looks explosive. That works fine when markets are calm. It’s exactly the setup where pressure shows up first when volatility spikes, funding tightens, or confidence slips. The H.8 and the bankruptcy data are quietly telling you where the stress is being parked and where it’s most likely to surface if conditions turn.
Now available: Weekly data on the H.8 release, Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States (1/2) #FedData https://t.co/WeJhdaARrt tweet