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EndGame Macro
Everyone keeps waiting for Fed cuts to magically fix housing but this chart shows why that’s the wrong frame. Mortgage rates don’t really price off the Fed; they price off the 10 year plus the spread, and that spread only tightened because Fannie and Freddie quietly stepped in as buyers, growing their retained MBS portfolios by roughly 25% since May. That’s intervention to keep the plumbing from cracking.
And the results tell the story. Rates eased a bit, but November sales barely moved (about 4.13M annualized, still down YoY), affordability is still broken, vacancies are up around 7.2% the highest since 2017, and rents are falling. That’s not recovery. It’s managed decline…smoothing the downside, shifting risk onto public balance sheets, and buying time while fundamentals lag. Housing cycles don’t snap back…they freeze, get propped up, then drift lower as reality catches up.
Curious what everyone is seeing locally in their own markets…still frozen, or starting to crack?
And if you don’t already follow Melody she has some of the clearest, most honest housing analysis right now, follow her on X @m3_melody and read her Substack https://t.co/MmnMI8zoRl
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Everyone keeps waiting for Fed cuts to magically fix housing but this chart shows why that’s the wrong frame. Mortgage rates don’t really price off the Fed; they price off the 10 year plus the spread, and that spread only tightened because Fannie and Freddie quietly stepped in as buyers, growing their retained MBS portfolios by roughly 25% since May. That’s intervention to keep the plumbing from cracking.
And the results tell the story. Rates eased a bit, but November sales barely moved (about 4.13M annualized, still down YoY), affordability is still broken, vacancies are up around 7.2% the highest since 2017, and rents are falling. That’s not recovery. It’s managed decline…smoothing the downside, shifting risk onto public balance sheets, and buying time while fundamentals lag. Housing cycles don’t snap back…they freeze, get propped up, then drift lower as reality catches up.
Curious what everyone is seeing locally in their own markets…still frozen, or starting to crack?
And if you don’t already follow Melody she has some of the clearest, most honest housing analysis right now, follow her on X @m3_melody and read her Substack https://t.co/MmnMI8zoRl
Desperate times call for desperate measures it seems, and the GSEs and powers that be are getting desperate
Retained MBS up by 25%? Such news sends shivers down my GFC-hardened spine
Plus what Nov home sales and price results tell us about what’s next
https://t.co/NvrDwThUnT https://t.co/KqvuGEAEjX tweet
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EndGame Macro
Why Nike’s Turnaround Won’t Be Fast
Nike’s drop doesn’t look like a random selloff. The chart had been warning for a while with lower highs, a shaky base in the mid $60s, then a clean break. When that happens after months of hope, it’s usually the market saying, we need more than promises now.
Why the Q3 outlook mattered
Management guided to lower revenue in Q3, another hit to margins, and made it clear that tariffs are doing real damage. Strip tariffs out and the business looks more stable but tariffs don’t strip out in reality. They show up in prices, margins, and demand, all at the same time.
China is the bigger drag. A double digit decline there isn’t a short term wobble, and management didn’t sound like a quick turnaround was coming. North America is holding up, but not enough to carry the whole story.
What’s really going on
My read is that Nike is being repriced as a normal, competitive retailer instead of a once untouchable growth brand. Competition is real…Hoka and On feel fresher and own the innovation narrative right now while Nike works through product refreshes, inventory cleanup, and a slower than expected DTC reset. Promotions help move shoes, but they quietly eat margins and dull brand power.
This feels like Nike is in the middle of a reset. Elliott Hill, who stepped back in to lead the company after decades inside Nike, has been pretty upfront about that. He knows the brand, the product cycle, and the mistakes that were made, and he’s been clear that fixing them takes time, not a quarter or two. That’s why this phase looks messy. The stock might look cheaper on paper, but markets don’t reward price alone. They wait for proof with cleaner inventories, steadier margins, and real product momentum and that’s usually when the bottom actually forms, not before.
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Why Nike’s Turnaround Won’t Be Fast
Nike’s drop doesn’t look like a random selloff. The chart had been warning for a while with lower highs, a shaky base in the mid $60s, then a clean break. When that happens after months of hope, it’s usually the market saying, we need more than promises now.
Why the Q3 outlook mattered
Management guided to lower revenue in Q3, another hit to margins, and made it clear that tariffs are doing real damage. Strip tariffs out and the business looks more stable but tariffs don’t strip out in reality. They show up in prices, margins, and demand, all at the same time.
China is the bigger drag. A double digit decline there isn’t a short term wobble, and management didn’t sound like a quick turnaround was coming. North America is holding up, but not enough to carry the whole story.
What’s really going on
My read is that Nike is being repriced as a normal, competitive retailer instead of a once untouchable growth brand. Competition is real…Hoka and On feel fresher and own the innovation narrative right now while Nike works through product refreshes, inventory cleanup, and a slower than expected DTC reset. Promotions help move shoes, but they quietly eat margins and dull brand power.
This feels like Nike is in the middle of a reset. Elliott Hill, who stepped back in to lead the company after decades inside Nike, has been pretty upfront about that. He knows the brand, the product cycle, and the mistakes that were made, and he’s been clear that fixing them takes time, not a quarter or two. That’s why this phase looks messy. The stock might look cheaper on paper, but markets don’t reward price alone. They wait for proof with cleaner inventories, steadier margins, and real product momentum and that’s usually when the bottom actually forms, not before.
Nike $NKE suffers largest decline since April 🚨📉 https://t.co/HNdC5f8x3v tweet
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Fiscal.ai
12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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12 "Boring Stocks" that crush the market:
1. United Rentals $URI
10yr Total Return: +1,117% https://t.co/IyVRasKNY1
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RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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RT @WealthyReadings: $LULU is one to watch closely.
🔹New CEO after two years of misreading customer demand.
🔹Growth is accelerating outside the West.
🔹New products that should fit demand by H1-26.
🔹Lowest multiples in history.
🔹Market loves sportswear lately.
Setup is getting interesting. https://t.co/kZbhXiJupX
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RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
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RT @WealthyReadings: 🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap again, and I don’t say that often.
Markets are globally anxious and December flights were weaker than expected. They’re trending at 24.2 flights/day, below October–November averages, bringing Q4-25 to ~24.6 flights/day.
If this average holds:
~2,263 flights in Q4-25
$154.4M Q4 revenue
~$599M FY25 revenue
+35.6% YoY growth
~7x P/S
For context, OrganOx, with inferior growth and fundamentals, was acquired at 21x sales. That doesn’t mean $TMDX should trade there, but the gap is undeniable.
One odd data: 12 planes haven’t been used in December. No clear explanation why, could be slower transplant demand or maintenance keeping planes grounded, potentially increasing third-party or ground transports. I won't model this as I don't know but my assumptions are a floor, not a ceiling.
Bottom line: Even with a softer December, $TMDX can still hit midpoint guidance - guidance that’s been raised three times this year.
Looking ahead to FY26:
• New growth vectors (hearts & lungs)
• International expansion
• Minimal exposure to AI CapEx cycles or recession risk
$TMDX is once again one of the best buys in the market at this price.
🚨 $TMDX is dirt cheap, and I don’t say that often.
Financials are strong. Growth is strong. Multiples are reasonable. And we’re set up for a Q4 beat.
Here’s why $TMDX will go higher, why they’ll likely beat FY expectations and why it is one of the best buy on the market 👇
Quarter flight numbers so far.
🔹October: 773 flights → 24.9 per day
🔹November to date: 317 flights → 26.4 per day
🔹Q4 to date: 1,090 flights → 25.3 per day
As of today, not even halfway through Q4, $TMDX has generated around $74.4M in revenue, roughly half of what’s needed to hit the low end of its FY guidance - which has already been raised three times this year.
This comes after just 43 days, with 49 days left in the quarter.
At the current pace of 25.3 flights per day, they’re on track for.
≈ 2,330 flights total in Q4
≈ $159M in revenue
That would push FY25 revenue toward the high end of their guidance without any acceleration in flight frequency.
And december is historically the strongest month of the quarter, and the second strongest of the year in terms of transplant activity and flight data for $TMDX.
So if they simply maintain this rhythm, they’ll hit the high end of their guidance and if flights accelerate - as history suggests, we're up for a beat.
That being said, my calculations aren't perfect, nothing really is, but there are reasons to expect a strong quarter based on today data for $TMDX.
All while the stock trades at its lowest multiples in years, with many bullish catalysts ahead.
🔹 Rapid growth & expanding margins
🔹 Recession proof business model
🔹 Multiple short-term growth verticals
🔹 Strong winter seasonality
🔹 Competition acquirerd 20×+ sales
You'll find everything you need to build your convictions just below 👇 tweet
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RT @WealthyReadings: The AI trade isn't over.
$NBIS $ALAB
👇 https://t.co/g2onKBMbzw
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RT @WealthyReadings: The AI trade isn't over.
$NBIS $ALAB
👇 https://t.co/g2onKBMbzw
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They said that China was uninvestable at the start of the year and that no stocks were worth buying.
It ended up outperforming the U.S. and many other markets - and it’ll continue doing so.
The best asset remains $BABA, with many other stocks ready to fly through the year while they continue to ignore the country.
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They said that China was uninvestable at the start of the year and that no stocks were worth buying.
It ended up outperforming the U.S. and many other markets - and it’ll continue doing so.
The best asset remains $BABA, with many other stocks ready to fly through the year while they continue to ignore the country.
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EndGame Macro
Touching the Hull And How the U.S. Is Rewriting the Rules of Sanctions Enforcement
This isn’t really about one tanker, or even Venezuela’s oil in isolation. It’s the U.S. turning sanctions from something you litigate into something you physically enforce. Boarding ships, seizing cargo, and openly talking about pursuing additional vessels is a signal that sanctions evasion is no longer a paperwork game. The audience isn’t just Caracas, it’s the entire ecosystem that makes gray market oil move including ship owners, insurers, brokers, banks, port services, and the flags of convenience system that shields them. Once enforcement touches hulls instead of spreadsheets, the risk math changes fast.
Why this goes beyond Venezuela
Venezuela’s barrels alone don’t move global oil prices much. The pressure comes from what enforcement does to the plumbing. Insurance premiums rise, counterparties disappear, financing costs jump, routes get longer, and margins compress. That’s how sanctions actually bite by making the whole shadow supply chain fragile and expensive. Even traders who never touch Venezuelan crude pay attention, because the same tactics apply anywhere sanctions are being skirted.
The China angle and why it’s indirect
Most of these vessels operate under flags like Panama and move as part of a dark fleet. China’s role is as the end buyer of discounted crude, not the operator of the ships themselves. That’s intentional. Washington is squeezing the middle m of logistics, insurance, shipping rather than confronting Beijing directly. It raises friction and cost without forcing an overt diplomatic clash.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Angle
The U.S. is reasserting control in the Western Hemisphere, not just diplomatically but physically, to push out rival influence and lock down energy flows close to home. That’s why this feels different from past sanctions cycles. Its enforcement paired with deterrence, a reminder that the U.S. still controls maritime, legal, and financial choke points in its near abroad.
The real risk
The upside, from Washington’s perspective, is restoring credibility. Sanctions only work if people believe enforcement is real. The risk is escalation with Venezuelan naval escorts, tighter standoffs at sea, and precedent setting behavior that other regions may mirror. If this stays contained, the impact shows up as higher friction and volatility, not a supply shock. If it spirals, it stops being a sanctions story and starts looking like a geopolitical one with spillovers into energy markets, insurance, and global risk sentiment.
My View
This is not about oil shortages tomorrow. It’s a calculated move to reprice risk in the shadow energy trade and reassert hemispheric control. The real question is how far the U.S. is willing to go to make sanctions enforcement physical again, and how the rest of the system adapts once it realizes the rules have changed.
tweet
Touching the Hull And How the U.S. Is Rewriting the Rules of Sanctions Enforcement
This isn’t really about one tanker, or even Venezuela’s oil in isolation. It’s the U.S. turning sanctions from something you litigate into something you physically enforce. Boarding ships, seizing cargo, and openly talking about pursuing additional vessels is a signal that sanctions evasion is no longer a paperwork game. The audience isn’t just Caracas, it’s the entire ecosystem that makes gray market oil move including ship owners, insurers, brokers, banks, port services, and the flags of convenience system that shields them. Once enforcement touches hulls instead of spreadsheets, the risk math changes fast.
Why this goes beyond Venezuela
Venezuela’s barrels alone don’t move global oil prices much. The pressure comes from what enforcement does to the plumbing. Insurance premiums rise, counterparties disappear, financing costs jump, routes get longer, and margins compress. That’s how sanctions actually bite by making the whole shadow supply chain fragile and expensive. Even traders who never touch Venezuelan crude pay attention, because the same tactics apply anywhere sanctions are being skirted.
The China angle and why it’s indirect
Most of these vessels operate under flags like Panama and move as part of a dark fleet. China’s role is as the end buyer of discounted crude, not the operator of the ships themselves. That’s intentional. Washington is squeezing the middle m of logistics, insurance, shipping rather than confronting Beijing directly. It raises friction and cost without forcing an overt diplomatic clash.
Monroe Doctrine 2.0 Angle
The U.S. is reasserting control in the Western Hemisphere, not just diplomatically but physically, to push out rival influence and lock down energy flows close to home. That’s why this feels different from past sanctions cycles. Its enforcement paired with deterrence, a reminder that the U.S. still controls maritime, legal, and financial choke points in its near abroad.
The real risk
The upside, from Washington’s perspective, is restoring credibility. Sanctions only work if people believe enforcement is real. The risk is escalation with Venezuelan naval escorts, tighter standoffs at sea, and precedent setting behavior that other regions may mirror. If this stays contained, the impact shows up as higher friction and volatility, not a supply shock. If it spirals, it stops being a sanctions story and starts looking like a geopolitical one with spillovers into energy markets, insurance, and global risk sentiment.
My View
This is not about oil shortages tomorrow. It’s a calculated move to reprice risk in the shadow energy trade and reassert hemispheric control. The real question is how far the U.S. is willing to go to make sanctions enforcement physical again, and how the rest of the system adapts once it realizes the rules have changed.
BREAKING: The US has seized a 3rd oil tanker near Venezuela tweet