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EndGame Macro
When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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When Gold Buys This Much Oil, the Market Is Bracing for Something
This chart is really just asking how much oil can you buy with gold? And at about 0.51 grams per barrel, the answer right now is a lot. That’s extreme. Historically, you don’t see oil this cheap relative to gold unless something is off in the real economy or people are paying up for insurance. Oil is tied to actual demand with shipping, travel, production. Gold is tied to trust, uncertainty, and the long arc of policy. When gold buys this much oil, the market is leaning toward protection over growth.
Look at the past troughs and the pattern is pretty consistent. These lows show up around demand shocks or financial stress like in the late 90s in Asia, 2008, 2020. Oil gets hit first because demand weakens, while gold holds up because uncertainty doesn’t fade as fast as inflation. That fits the current backdrop if a global slowdown is coming. The key thing, though, is that these extremes rarely last forever. Either recession deepens and oil stays suppressed longer than people expect, or policy easing, supply risk, or recovery flips the script and oil snaps back hard. Historically, when this ratio turns, it tends to do so fast and that’s what makes this level less a resting place and more a sign that something is about to change.
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EndGame Macro
When the Consumer Stops Feeling It, the Economy Usually Follows
This chart is basically a snapshot of how people feel about their finances right now, not where they think things are headed. And when this index sinks toward the low 50s, history says that’s not just grumbling, it usually lines up with real economic stress. You see it in the mid 70s during inflation and unemployment shocks, in the early 80s during aggressive tightening, in 2008 when housing and credit broke, and in 2020 when the economy suddenly stopped. The common thread isn’t fear about the future, it’s that people’s day to day math stopped working.
What makes this moment different is that the drop hasn’t come from a single shock. It’s been a slow erosion. Prices reset higher, borrowing got more expensive, and even as inflation cooled, the level of costs stayed elevated. That’s why sentiment hasn’t bounced the way it usually does when inflation rolls over. People don’t feel relief just because prices rise more slowly, they feel it when their pay, savings, and purchasing power actually catch up. The consumer is already defensive. When current conditions sit this low, spending usually weakens next, not all at once, but gradually…first discretionary, then credit, then labor. At this point, it wouldn’t take a big jobs shock to turn this from frustration into something more tangible.
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When the Consumer Stops Feeling It, the Economy Usually Follows
This chart is basically a snapshot of how people feel about their finances right now, not where they think things are headed. And when this index sinks toward the low 50s, history says that’s not just grumbling, it usually lines up with real economic stress. You see it in the mid 70s during inflation and unemployment shocks, in the early 80s during aggressive tightening, in 2008 when housing and credit broke, and in 2020 when the economy suddenly stopped. The common thread isn’t fear about the future, it’s that people’s day to day math stopped working.
What makes this moment different is that the drop hasn’t come from a single shock. It’s been a slow erosion. Prices reset higher, borrowing got more expensive, and even as inflation cooled, the level of costs stayed elevated. That’s why sentiment hasn’t bounced the way it usually does when inflation rolls over. People don’t feel relief just because prices rise more slowly, they feel it when their pay, savings, and purchasing power actually catch up. The consumer is already defensive. When current conditions sit this low, spending usually weakens next, not all at once, but gradually…first discretionary, then credit, then labor. At this point, it wouldn’t take a big jobs shock to turn this from frustration into something more tangible.
The University of Michigan Current Conditions Index declined to the lowest level in recorded history in December. https://t.co/ZoKfHhnEdU tweet
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EndGame Macro
President Trump Says He’s Looking At Emergency Action On Housing
President Trump says he is considering declaring a national housing emergency to tackle affordability while trying not to undercut existing homeowners’ wealth. He frames housing as a core store of net worth especially for older households and argues that rapidly expanding supply could push prices down in a way that hurts current owners, even as younger buyers struggle to enter the market.
A national emergency declaration would give him broad executive powers to act without Congress, potentially allowing the administration to free up federal land, waive or fast track regulations, reduce closing costs, adjust mortgage programs through agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and apply pressure on zoning and construction costs, all aimed at increasing access to housing without triggering a sharp price correction.
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President Trump Says He’s Looking At Emergency Action On Housing
President Trump says he is considering declaring a national housing emergency to tackle affordability while trying not to undercut existing homeowners’ wealth. He frames housing as a core store of net worth especially for older households and argues that rapidly expanding supply could push prices down in a way that hurts current owners, even as younger buyers struggle to enter the market.
A national emergency declaration would give him broad executive powers to act without Congress, potentially allowing the administration to free up federal land, waive or fast track regulations, reduce closing costs, adjust mortgage programs through agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and apply pressure on zoning and construction costs, all aimed at increasing access to housing without triggering a sharp price correction.
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Fiscal.ai
Throwback to one of the best investment pitches of all time.
Norbert Lou in 2001:
"NVR is a homebuilder. Their operating model, which is unique, allows them to assume the least risk in the industry and produce returns that are the largest."
$NVR is up 4,858% since. https://t.co/NckQIIwoZF
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Throwback to one of the best investment pitches of all time.
Norbert Lou in 2001:
"NVR is a homebuilder. Their operating model, which is unique, allows them to assume the least risk in the industry and produce returns that are the largest."
$NVR is up 4,858% since. https://t.co/NckQIIwoZF
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App Economy Insights
📊 This Week in Visuals
$ACN Accenture
$NKE Nike
$FDX FedEx
$CCL Carnival
$GIS General Mills
$DRI Darden
https://t.co/81IZoEjWLG
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📊 This Week in Visuals
$ACN Accenture
$NKE Nike
$FDX FedEx
$CCL Carnival
$GIS General Mills
$DRI Darden
https://t.co/81IZoEjWLG
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