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EndGame Macro
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Breaking Inflation News
CPI 2.7% consensus 3.1%
Core 2.6% consensus 3.0%
Wall Street estimates weren't even close. https://t.co/WtfWv3Trxu tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Inflation Is Narrowing, Demand Is Softening And The CPI Is Catching Up
When I read the CPI report, I don’t stop at 2.7% year over year. I try to figure out where inflation still has oxygen and where it’s clearly running out. One footnote matters…October CPI wasn’t collected because of the funding lapse, so we’re leaning on a two month Sept to Nov move with some gaps in the usual monthly detail. Even with that caveat, the signal is clear that headline CPI is 2.7% YoY, core is 2.6% YoY, and the pattern is familiar…cooling into spring, a mid year reacceleration, and now a renewed slowdown.
The Sticky Part Is Mostly Shelter And It’s Lagging Reality
Shelter is still doing a lot of heavy lifting at 3.0% YoY, and OER 3.4% YoY with an outsized contribution to the total. But here’s the key context people miss…private sector rent data is cooling much faster than CPI shelter. Zillow’s observed rent growth for apartments is around 1.1% YoY, and their multifamily outlook is negative in 2026 (-0.3%). That’s not a contradiction, it’s how the data is built. CPI shelter is slow because it reflects existing leases that reset over time. Private data captures today’s asking rents. So CPI is still showing shelter inflation because it’s looking in the rearview mirror, even as the real time housing market is already easing.
Where The Weakness Is Showing Up
The soft spots aren’t subtle. Travel linked categories normally resilient when demand is strong are outright negative year over year…lodging away from home (-4.1%), airline fares (-5.4%), public transportation (-4.0%). That’s what fading pricing power looks like. And goods are still a competitive battlefield…information technology commodities (-3.3%) and smartphones (-9.4%) are basically telling you nobody gets to raise prices there.
Meanwhile, the inflation that is hanging around looks more like cost structure than overheating demand. Energy services are up 7.4% YoY, with electricity 6.9% YoY, even though energy commodities are much tamer (1.2% YoY). That’s less consumers are splurging and more the fixed bills are still heavy.
My Read
This isn’t an economy reaccelerating. It’s an economy cooling in an uneven way…sticky, lagging shelter and non optional bills on one side, weakening discretionary pricing power on the other. If you sanity check it against real time signals, it lines up, WTI hanging in the mid $50s and trending down over the year doesn’t scream demand resurgence. The bigger implication is timing with the CPI still being propped up by backward looking shelter, while the forward looking parts of the economy are already acting softer. That’s how you end up with policy staying tight even after the underlying demand has rolled over.
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Inflation Is Narrowing, Demand Is Softening And The CPI Is Catching Up
When I read the CPI report, I don’t stop at 2.7% year over year. I try to figure out where inflation still has oxygen and where it’s clearly running out. One footnote matters…October CPI wasn’t collected because of the funding lapse, so we’re leaning on a two month Sept to Nov move with some gaps in the usual monthly detail. Even with that caveat, the signal is clear that headline CPI is 2.7% YoY, core is 2.6% YoY, and the pattern is familiar…cooling into spring, a mid year reacceleration, and now a renewed slowdown.
The Sticky Part Is Mostly Shelter And It’s Lagging Reality
Shelter is still doing a lot of heavy lifting at 3.0% YoY, and OER 3.4% YoY with an outsized contribution to the total. But here’s the key context people miss…private sector rent data is cooling much faster than CPI shelter. Zillow’s observed rent growth for apartments is around 1.1% YoY, and their multifamily outlook is negative in 2026 (-0.3%). That’s not a contradiction, it’s how the data is built. CPI shelter is slow because it reflects existing leases that reset over time. Private data captures today’s asking rents. So CPI is still showing shelter inflation because it’s looking in the rearview mirror, even as the real time housing market is already easing.
Where The Weakness Is Showing Up
The soft spots aren’t subtle. Travel linked categories normally resilient when demand is strong are outright negative year over year…lodging away from home (-4.1%), airline fares (-5.4%), public transportation (-4.0%). That’s what fading pricing power looks like. And goods are still a competitive battlefield…information technology commodities (-3.3%) and smartphones (-9.4%) are basically telling you nobody gets to raise prices there.
Meanwhile, the inflation that is hanging around looks more like cost structure than overheating demand. Energy services are up 7.4% YoY, with electricity 6.9% YoY, even though energy commodities are much tamer (1.2% YoY). That’s less consumers are splurging and more the fixed bills are still heavy.
My Read
This isn’t an economy reaccelerating. It’s an economy cooling in an uneven way…sticky, lagging shelter and non optional bills on one side, weakening discretionary pricing power on the other. If you sanity check it against real time signals, it lines up, WTI hanging in the mid $50s and trending down over the year doesn’t scream demand resurgence. The bigger implication is timing with the CPI still being propped up by backward looking shelter, while the forward looking parts of the economy are already acting softer. That’s how you end up with policy staying tight even after the underlying demand has rolled over.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
For those waiting to buy a home right now…how much would the price of the homes you are looking at have to come down at current mortgage rates?
If the prices stayed flat as is…how much would mortgage rates have to come down for you to buy?
Would the price of the mortgage have to $500 dollar cheaper a month for you to buy or $1,000 or more for you to buy?
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For those waiting to buy a home right now…how much would the price of the homes you are looking at have to come down at current mortgage rates?
If the prices stayed flat as is…how much would mortgage rates have to come down for you to buy?
Would the price of the mortgage have to $500 dollar cheaper a month for you to buy or $1,000 or more for you to buy?
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Fiscal.ai
There are currently 23 software companies globally that spend more than 20% of their revenue on stock-based compensation.
Here they are. https://t.co/dJUc7hqTdU
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There are currently 23 software companies globally that spend more than 20% of their revenue on stock-based compensation.
Here they are. https://t.co/dJUc7hqTdU
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The Few Bets That Matter
The current state of the AI bubble.
$NVDA has a ~$500B backlog for the next 12 months excluding China, with permits being delivered.
$NBIS is turning away customers with next years' compute almost fully booked.
$AVGO is sold out across its capacity through FY26.
$TSM has to expand fab capacity to meet growing demand.
$MU keeps raising guidance as incremental compute demands more memory.
$ALAB is in active discussions with every hyperscaler as accelerator demand to optimize compute explodes - confirmed by $CRDO earnings.
The first supply constraint bubble without stupidly extended multiples and overly bullish sentiment ever.
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The current state of the AI bubble.
$NVDA has a ~$500B backlog for the next 12 months excluding China, with permits being delivered.
$NBIS is turning away customers with next years' compute almost fully booked.
$AVGO is sold out across its capacity through FY26.
$TSM has to expand fab capacity to meet growing demand.
$MU keeps raising guidance as incremental compute demands more memory.
$ALAB is in active discussions with every hyperscaler as accelerator demand to optimize compute explodes - confirmed by $CRDO earnings.
The first supply constraint bubble without stupidly extended multiples and overly bullish sentiment ever.
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The Few Bets That Matter
$MELI is trading at its lowest valuation ever just because the market is taking a breather.
That is factually true.
But there's no need to rush. You only make money when stocks go up.
Money isn't made catching bottoms.
It is made by following uptrends. https://t.co/dMwwOp579Q
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$MELI is trading at its lowest valuation ever just because the market is taking a breather.
That is factually true.
But there's no need to rush. You only make money when stocks go up.
Money isn't made catching bottoms.
It is made by following uptrends. https://t.co/dMwwOp579Q
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
Efficiency, not raw scale, is the next leg of the AI trade.
That requires maximizing compute per unit of space & energy. Companies who propose this will yield returns.
This is what $ALAB's business is based on.
This is where $NBIS shines 👇.
https://t.co/1wgtIIMIBC
tweet
Efficiency, not raw scale, is the next leg of the AI trade.
That requires maximizing compute per unit of space & energy. Companies who propose this will yield returns.
This is what $ALAB's business is based on.
This is where $NBIS shines 👇.
https://t.co/1wgtIIMIBC
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
OpenAI with another video of poor taste...
Begging the markets not to let the AI trade fade and using the famous Chinese competition to do so...
This isn't what tech is about.
Markets reward execution and cash.
So execute & generate cash.
https://t.co/2ImqKWYyq2
tweet
OpenAI with another video of poor taste...
Begging the markets not to let the AI trade fade and using the famous Chinese competition to do so...
This isn't what tech is about.
Markets reward execution and cash.
So execute & generate cash.
https://t.co/2ImqKWYyq2
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
$PATH bull case rests on one metric only: net new ARR.
Q3 delivered the first sequential growth.
Q4 guidance points to acceleration.
That’s it.
I break down the thesis and how to capitalize on it in my latest article. Link's in bio. https://t.co/yFT9gOq9Wo
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$PATH bull case rests on one metric only: net new ARR.
Q3 delivered the first sequential growth.
Q4 guidance points to acceleration.
That’s it.
I break down the thesis and how to capitalize on it in my latest article. Link's in bio. https://t.co/yFT9gOq9Wo
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
This feels like market mechanics doing what they do when liquidity thins out. You get a fast break lower once price slips through obvious intraday levels, stops get tripped, and systematic sellers lean in. That selling feeds on itself for a bit, not because everyone suddenly got bearish, but because that’s how these systems are wired to react.
Then you hit a level where selling pressure runs out, shorts start covering, and the same machines that sold on the way down flip into buy mode as price stabilizes and reclaims key averages. The snapback is a reflex. This is less about fundamentals changing in an hour and more about how a market dominated by algorithms, options hedging, and shallow liquidity can swing hundreds of billions on autopilot before most humans even react.
tweet
This feels like market mechanics doing what they do when liquidity thins out. You get a fast break lower once price slips through obvious intraday levels, stops get tripped, and systematic sellers lean in. That selling feeds on itself for a bit, not because everyone suddenly got bearish, but because that’s how these systems are wired to react.
Then you hit a level where selling pressure runs out, shorts start covering, and the same machines that sold on the way down flip into buy mode as price stabilizes and reclaims key averages. The snapback is a reflex. This is less about fundamentals changing in an hour and more about how a market dominated by algorithms, options hedging, and shallow liquidity can swing hundreds of billions on autopilot before most humans even react.
We are seeing MASSIVE swings in markets right now:
Between 11:55 AM ET and 12:25 PM ET, the S&P 500 erased -$450 billion in market cap.
23 minutes later and $320 billion in market cap has been added back.
That's a $720 BILLION swing in market cap in under 1 hour.
Capitalize on volatility. tweet