Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Sowell’s Lesson for Today…When Tariffs Turn a Slowdown Into a Decade Long Problem
Sowell’s argument about the Great Depression focuses less on the 1929 crash itself and more on the policy error that followed. The market break hurt confidence, but the economy wasn’t yet in free fall, unemployment was uneven but improving into mid 1930. The real turning point was Smoot-Hawley, when Washington imposed sweeping tariffs to protect jobs, ignoring warnings from more than 1,000 economists that retaliation would gut trade. That warning proved right. Global trade collapsed, retaliation spread quickly, and unemployment surged into double digits within months, staying there for the entire 1930s. In Sowell’s view, the depression wasn’t unavoidable, it was extended and deepened by policy choices.
That’s why today’s tariff escalation deserves more attention than it gets. Modern reciprocal tariffs, Section 232 actions, and tit for tat responses across China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and others rhyme uncomfortably with that period. Once trade shifts from being a pressure release to a blunt weapon, the damage compounds where supply chains fracture, exporters suffer, prices skew, and already weak sectors deteriorate further. The historical lesson is that broad, retaliatory protectionism has a habit of turning manageable slowdowns into long, grinding economic slogs.
tweet
Sowell’s Lesson for Today…When Tariffs Turn a Slowdown Into a Decade Long Problem
Sowell’s argument about the Great Depression focuses less on the 1929 crash itself and more on the policy error that followed. The market break hurt confidence, but the economy wasn’t yet in free fall, unemployment was uneven but improving into mid 1930. The real turning point was Smoot-Hawley, when Washington imposed sweeping tariffs to protect jobs, ignoring warnings from more than 1,000 economists that retaliation would gut trade. That warning proved right. Global trade collapsed, retaliation spread quickly, and unemployment surged into double digits within months, staying there for the entire 1930s. In Sowell’s view, the depression wasn’t unavoidable, it was extended and deepened by policy choices.
That’s why today’s tariff escalation deserves more attention than it gets. Modern reciprocal tariffs, Section 232 actions, and tit for tat responses across China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and others rhyme uncomfortably with that period. Once trade shifts from being a pressure release to a blunt weapon, the damage compounds where supply chains fracture, exporters suffer, prices skew, and already weak sectors deteriorate further. The historical lesson is that broad, retaliatory protectionism has a habit of turning manageable slowdowns into long, grinding economic slogs.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Prices Are Falling And Demand Is Frozen
Lennar’s average selling price on new homes is down about 27% from the pandemic peak, and that’s after adjusting for incentives. That matters, because a lot of the real price cutting isn’t showing up as big headline drops and is buried in mortgage buydowns, closing credits, and upgrades. On paper, prices look like they’re drifting. In practice, builders are doing whatever they can to make the monthly payment work.
Why this is happening
This is the hangover from higher rates. Existing homeowners are locked into cheap mortgages and don’t want to move, so resale supply stays tight. Builders don’t have that luxury. They have inventory to move, so they become the pressure valve for the whole market. That’s why new home prices and margins adjust first, even while people argue that housing is still strong.
My View
The real tell is in demand. Mortgage applications are still scraping along near multi decade lows, especially for purchases. That says buyers are constrained, not confident. This isn’t a sudden housing crash, it’s a slow reset. Prices soften where they can, volumes stay weak, and the market stalls until either rates come down meaningfully or incomes catch up.
*Credit to @nickgerli1 for the chart.
tweet
Prices Are Falling And Demand Is Frozen
Lennar’s average selling price on new homes is down about 27% from the pandemic peak, and that’s after adjusting for incentives. That matters, because a lot of the real price cutting isn’t showing up as big headline drops and is buried in mortgage buydowns, closing credits, and upgrades. On paper, prices look like they’re drifting. In practice, builders are doing whatever they can to make the monthly payment work.
Why this is happening
This is the hangover from higher rates. Existing homeowners are locked into cheap mortgages and don’t want to move, so resale supply stays tight. Builders don’t have that luxury. They have inventory to move, so they become the pressure valve for the whole market. That’s why new home prices and margins adjust first, even while people argue that housing is still strong.
My View
The real tell is in demand. Mortgage applications are still scraping along near multi decade lows, especially for purchases. That says buyers are constrained, not confident. This isn’t a sudden housing crash, it’s a slow reset. Prices soften where they can, volumes stay weak, and the market stalls until either rates come down meaningfully or incomes catch up.
*Credit to @nickgerli1 for the chart.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
🏠 Why Home Sellers Are Quietly Tapping Out
A growing share of sellers are pulling listings because homes are sitting longer, offers are softer, and cutting prices feels like locking in a loss. Redfin data shows nearly 70% of homes listed in September sat on the market for 60+ days, and roughly 15% of delistings were at risk of selling below purchase price, which helps explain why owners would rather wait than blink first.
What this says about the housing market
This is what a frozen market looks like. Buyers are constrained by affordability and rates; sellers are anchored to 2021–2022 price memories. So instead of prices clearing lower in a clean way, supply gets artificially pulled back. Historically, when listings are withdrawn en masse, it’s not the bottom; it’s the phase where neither side has accepted the new clearing price yet. Eventually, either rates fall meaningfully, incomes catch up, or prices do the work. Right now, sellers stepping away is the market telling you that adjustment is still unfinished.
tweet
🏠 Why Home Sellers Are Quietly Tapping Out
A growing share of sellers are pulling listings because homes are sitting longer, offers are softer, and cutting prices feels like locking in a loss. Redfin data shows nearly 70% of homes listed in September sat on the market for 60+ days, and roughly 15% of delistings were at risk of selling below purchase price, which helps explain why owners would rather wait than blink first.
What this says about the housing market
This is what a frozen market looks like. Buyers are constrained by affordability and rates; sellers are anchored to 2021–2022 price memories. So instead of prices clearing lower in a clean way, supply gets artificially pulled back. Historically, when listings are withdrawn en masse, it’s not the bottom; it’s the phase where neither side has accepted the new clearing price yet. Eventually, either rates fall meaningfully, incomes catch up, or prices do the work. Right now, sellers stepping away is the market telling you that adjustment is still unfinished.
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, I t’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
tweet
Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, I t’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, it’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
tweet
Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, it’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Inflation…disinflation…DEFLATION. https://t.co/TWIURAx3w2
tweet
Inflation…disinflation…DEFLATION. https://t.co/TWIURAx3w2
This is absolutely insane:
Inflation in the US just unexpectedly posted one of the largest monthly declines since 2023.
While a +10 basis point increase in inflation was expected, it actually FELL by -40 basis points.
This puts Core CPI inflation in the US at its lowest level since March 2021.
According to this data, inflation is now at its closest point to the Fed's 2% target since the pandemic.
2026 is going to be a wild year. tweet
Offshore
Photo
Wasteland Capital
Inflation collapse! CPI 2.7% vs 3.1% exp, Core CPI +2.6% vs. 3.0% exp, LOWEST since early 2021!
Energy the major CPI driver at +4.2%, while healthcare (+3.3%) and housing (+3.0%) still too high.
Tariff impact? Apparel +0.2%, new cars +0.6%. LOL, another Wasteland bullseye 🎯! https://t.co/QqxAGQvsLk
tweet
Inflation collapse! CPI 2.7% vs 3.1% exp, Core CPI +2.6% vs. 3.0% exp, LOWEST since early 2021!
Energy the major CPI driver at +4.2%, while healthcare (+3.3%) and housing (+3.0%) still too high.
Tariff impact? Apparel +0.2%, new cars +0.6%. LOL, another Wasteland bullseye 🎯! https://t.co/QqxAGQvsLk
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Yesterday, Micron reported $13.6 billion in quarterly revenue (+57% y/y).
That's their largest quarter ever... by a mile.
$MU: +14.8% pre-market https://t.co/wttO3c2woN
tweet
Yesterday, Micron reported $13.6 billion in quarterly revenue (+57% y/y).
That's their largest quarter ever... by a mile.
$MU: +14.8% pre-market https://t.co/wttO3c2woN
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
When Inflation Dies, Deflation Writes the Rules And Why Switzerland Is the Warning Shot
Switzerland isn’t drifting back toward negative rates because growth is strong, it’s doing it because inflation has quietly disappeared and the franc keeps getting too strong. In periods of global stress, capital floods into Switzerland as a safe haven, tightening financial conditions without the SNB ever touching policy rates. That hurts exporters, suppresses prices, and raises the risk of outright deflation. The response isn’t loud QE or panic cuts; it’s more technical and defensive…tiered reserves, penalties on excess cash, and subtle pressure to keep money moving instead of sitting idle. None of this sparks a boom. It simply prevents conditions from tightening further when demand is already weak. Historically, it buys time and keeps the credit system from stalling.
Why the U.S. Eventually Walks the Same Road
The U.S. starts from a different place with inflation first, restraint second but the destination can still converge. As higher rates linger, debt rolls over at worse terms, delinquencies rise, commercial real estate strains, and growth cools. When inflation finally breaks, the policy problem flips. The choice stops being about fighting prices and becomes about preventing a credit contraction from morphing into deflation. That’s when zero rates, QE, or even something that looks like NIRP come back, not because central bankers want them, but because a highly levered, refinancing dependent system can’t absorb tight money indefinitely. Switzerland is the early signal. When safe haven flows, weak demand, and deflation risks dominate, central banks don’t double down on discipline, they ease constraints to keep the plumbing from freezing.
tweet
When Inflation Dies, Deflation Writes the Rules And Why Switzerland Is the Warning Shot
Switzerland isn’t drifting back toward negative rates because growth is strong, it’s doing it because inflation has quietly disappeared and the franc keeps getting too strong. In periods of global stress, capital floods into Switzerland as a safe haven, tightening financial conditions without the SNB ever touching policy rates. That hurts exporters, suppresses prices, and raises the risk of outright deflation. The response isn’t loud QE or panic cuts; it’s more technical and defensive…tiered reserves, penalties on excess cash, and subtle pressure to keep money moving instead of sitting idle. None of this sparks a boom. It simply prevents conditions from tightening further when demand is already weak. Historically, it buys time and keeps the credit system from stalling.
Why the U.S. Eventually Walks the Same Road
The U.S. starts from a different place with inflation first, restraint second but the destination can still converge. As higher rates linger, debt rolls over at worse terms, delinquencies rise, commercial real estate strains, and growth cools. When inflation finally breaks, the policy problem flips. The choice stops being about fighting prices and becomes about preventing a credit contraction from morphing into deflation. That’s when zero rates, QE, or even something that looks like NIRP come back, not because central bankers want them, but because a highly levered, refinancing dependent system can’t absorb tight money indefinitely. Switzerland is the early signal. When safe haven flows, weak demand, and deflation risks dominate, central banks don’t double down on discipline, they ease constraints to keep the plumbing from freezing.
tweet