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RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
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RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
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Why Pressure on Venezuela Rarely Ends Until Leadership Changes
This isn’t about the U.S. literally owning oil fields in Venezuela. It’s about decades of contracts, concessions, and investments that got pushed out as Venezuela in 1976 nationalized in its oil industry and tightened control over PDVSA. Some U.S. companies left, some sued, and Chevron stayed in a narrow lane under special waivers. Since then, U.S. policy has been a balancing act where they apply pressure, but keep just enough access to retain leverage. That’s how we ended up with sanctions, carve outs, and now a blockade.
Why this keeps escalating
History is pretty consistent here. When a country nationalizes strategic Western assets and then refuses to negotiate a way forward, the response usually isn’t instant war…it’s sanctions, isolation, financial pressure, and indirect moves aimed at forcing a political outcome. Iran in the 50s, Guatemala, Chile, Cuba, Libya…different details, same pattern. Mexico in 1938 is the exception people forget, and that only worked because they negotiated and paid compensation. In most cases, pressure doesn’t really ease until the leadership changes or gets out of the way.
Where this leaves us now
So the blockade isn’t a random flare up, just the next step in a long standoff that’s been building for years. The likely endgame is Maduro eventually having to step aside so a deal can be cut and the system can reset. Whether this stops here or keeps escalating depends less on speeches and more on behavior of whether or not Caracas bends, bargains, or decides to double down. History suggests that when the door stays shut, pressure doesn’t fade, it just tightens until something gives.
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Why Pressure on Venezuela Rarely Ends Until Leadership Changes
This isn’t about the U.S. literally owning oil fields in Venezuela. It’s about decades of contracts, concessions, and investments that got pushed out as Venezuela in 1976 nationalized in its oil industry and tightened control over PDVSA. Some U.S. companies left, some sued, and Chevron stayed in a narrow lane under special waivers. Since then, U.S. policy has been a balancing act where they apply pressure, but keep just enough access to retain leverage. That’s how we ended up with sanctions, carve outs, and now a blockade.
Why this keeps escalating
History is pretty consistent here. When a country nationalizes strategic Western assets and then refuses to negotiate a way forward, the response usually isn’t instant war…it’s sanctions, isolation, financial pressure, and indirect moves aimed at forcing a political outcome. Iran in the 50s, Guatemala, Chile, Cuba, Libya…different details, same pattern. Mexico in 1938 is the exception people forget, and that only worked because they negotiated and paid compensation. In most cases, pressure doesn’t really ease until the leadership changes or gets out of the way.
Where this leaves us now
So the blockade isn’t a random flare up, just the next step in a long standoff that’s been building for years. The likely endgame is Maduro eventually having to step aside so a deal can be cut and the system can reset. Whether this stops here or keeps escalating depends less on speeches and more on behavior of whether or not Caracas bends, bargains, or decides to double down. History suggests that when the door stays shut, pressure doesn’t fade, it just tightens until something gives.
PRESIDENT TRUMP:
"Venezuela took all of our oil and we want it back."
Oil prices rise to a new high of the day. https://t.co/4qtUArsogC tweet
EndGame Macro
The risk of not acting is that Europe slowly loses control of one of the last industries it truly dominates. Cheap Chinese EVs don’t just undercut on price they squeeze margins, drain scale, and weaken Europe’s manufacturing base over time. Yes, China buys a lot of European cars, but that dependence cuts both ways. If Europe relies on China for growth abroad while absorbing Chinese imports at home, its leverage fades fast. The real danger is waking up years from now with a hollowed out auto sector and far less ability to push back at all.
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The risk of not acting is that Europe slowly loses control of one of the last industries it truly dominates. Cheap Chinese EVs don’t just undercut on price they squeeze margins, drain scale, and weaken Europe’s manufacturing base over time. Yes, China buys a lot of European cars, but that dependence cuts both ways. If Europe relies on China for growth abroad while absorbing Chinese imports at home, its leverage fades fast. The real danger is waking up years from now with a hollowed out auto sector and far less ability to push back at all.
What if Europe stopped buying Chinese cars tomorrow?
That would be a monumental show of European leverage.
And a major setback for China Car Inc’s global offensive - enough to swing the pendulum.
Could it happen? tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Michael Dunne (@dunne_insights) on X
What if Europe stopped buying Chinese cars tomorrow?
That would be a monumental show of European leverage.
And a major setback for China Car Inc’s global offensive - enough to swing the pendulum.
Could it happen?
That would be a monumental show of European leverage.
And a major setback for China Car Inc’s global offensive - enough to swing the pendulum.
Could it happen?
EndGame Macro
RT @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: President Trump's address to the nation concludes with no mention of Venezuela.
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RT @KobeissiLetter: BREAKING: President Trump's address to the nation concludes with no mention of Venezuela.
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Clark Square Capital
RT @ClarkSquareCap: Idea thread time!
What's your best idea heading into 2026? (Any style, any market cap, any geography).
Be sure to add why you like it + valuation.
I will compile the responses and share.
Appreciate a RT for visibility! 🙏
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RT @ClarkSquareCap: Idea thread time!
What's your best idea heading into 2026? (Any style, any market cap, any geography).
Be sure to add why you like it + valuation.
I will compile the responses and share.
Appreciate a RT for visibility! 🙏
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And just like that… https://t.co/U1bkPoQnlb
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And just like that… https://t.co/U1bkPoQnlb
BREAKING: US oil prices erase gains after President Trump concludes his address to the nation with no mention of Venezuela. https://t.co/s9EVr2mG6A tweet
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Sowell’s Lesson for Today…When Tariffs Turn a Slowdown Into a Decade Long Problem
Sowell’s argument about the Great Depression focuses less on the 1929 crash itself and more on the policy error that followed. The market break hurt confidence, but the economy wasn’t yet in free fall, unemployment was uneven but improving into mid 1930. The real turning point was Smoot-Hawley, when Washington imposed sweeping tariffs to protect jobs, ignoring warnings from more than 1,000 economists that retaliation would gut trade. That warning proved right. Global trade collapsed, retaliation spread quickly, and unemployment surged into double digits within months, staying there for the entire 1930s. In Sowell’s view, the depression wasn’t unavoidable, it was extended and deepened by policy choices.
That’s why today’s tariff escalation deserves more attention than it gets. Modern reciprocal tariffs, Section 232 actions, and tit for tat responses across China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and others rhyme uncomfortably with that period. Once trade shifts from being a pressure release to a blunt weapon, the damage compounds where supply chains fracture, exporters suffer, prices skew, and already weak sectors deteriorate further. The historical lesson is that broad, retaliatory protectionism has a habit of turning manageable slowdowns into long, grinding economic slogs.
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Sowell’s Lesson for Today…When Tariffs Turn a Slowdown Into a Decade Long Problem
Sowell’s argument about the Great Depression focuses less on the 1929 crash itself and more on the policy error that followed. The market break hurt confidence, but the economy wasn’t yet in free fall, unemployment was uneven but improving into mid 1930. The real turning point was Smoot-Hawley, when Washington imposed sweeping tariffs to protect jobs, ignoring warnings from more than 1,000 economists that retaliation would gut trade. That warning proved right. Global trade collapsed, retaliation spread quickly, and unemployment surged into double digits within months, staying there for the entire 1930s. In Sowell’s view, the depression wasn’t unavoidable, it was extended and deepened by policy choices.
That’s why today’s tariff escalation deserves more attention than it gets. Modern reciprocal tariffs, Section 232 actions, and tit for tat responses across China, Europe, Canada, Mexico, and others rhyme uncomfortably with that period. Once trade shifts from being a pressure release to a blunt weapon, the damage compounds where supply chains fracture, exporters suffer, prices skew, and already weak sectors deteriorate further. The historical lesson is that broad, retaliatory protectionism has a habit of turning manageable slowdowns into long, grinding economic slogs.
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Prices Are Falling And Demand Is Frozen
Lennar’s average selling price on new homes is down about 27% from the pandemic peak, and that’s after adjusting for incentives. That matters, because a lot of the real price cutting isn’t showing up as big headline drops and is buried in mortgage buydowns, closing credits, and upgrades. On paper, prices look like they’re drifting. In practice, builders are doing whatever they can to make the monthly payment work.
Why this is happening
This is the hangover from higher rates. Existing homeowners are locked into cheap mortgages and don’t want to move, so resale supply stays tight. Builders don’t have that luxury. They have inventory to move, so they become the pressure valve for the whole market. That’s why new home prices and margins adjust first, even while people argue that housing is still strong.
My View
The real tell is in demand. Mortgage applications are still scraping along near multi decade lows, especially for purchases. That says buyers are constrained, not confident. This isn’t a sudden housing crash, it’s a slow reset. Prices soften where they can, volumes stay weak, and the market stalls until either rates come down meaningfully or incomes catch up.
*Credit to @nickgerli1 for the chart.
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Prices Are Falling And Demand Is Frozen
Lennar’s average selling price on new homes is down about 27% from the pandemic peak, and that’s after adjusting for incentives. That matters, because a lot of the real price cutting isn’t showing up as big headline drops and is buried in mortgage buydowns, closing credits, and upgrades. On paper, prices look like they’re drifting. In practice, builders are doing whatever they can to make the monthly payment work.
Why this is happening
This is the hangover from higher rates. Existing homeowners are locked into cheap mortgages and don’t want to move, so resale supply stays tight. Builders don’t have that luxury. They have inventory to move, so they become the pressure valve for the whole market. That’s why new home prices and margins adjust first, even while people argue that housing is still strong.
My View
The real tell is in demand. Mortgage applications are still scraping along near multi decade lows, especially for purchases. That says buyers are constrained, not confident. This isn’t a sudden housing crash, it’s a slow reset. Prices soften where they can, volumes stay weak, and the market stalls until either rates come down meaningfully or incomes catch up.
*Credit to @nickgerli1 for the chart.
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🏠 Why Home Sellers Are Quietly Tapping Out
A growing share of sellers are pulling listings because homes are sitting longer, offers are softer, and cutting prices feels like locking in a loss. Redfin data shows nearly 70% of homes listed in September sat on the market for 60+ days, and roughly 15% of delistings were at risk of selling below purchase price, which helps explain why owners would rather wait than blink first.
What this says about the housing market
This is what a frozen market looks like. Buyers are constrained by affordability and rates; sellers are anchored to 2021–2022 price memories. So instead of prices clearing lower in a clean way, supply gets artificially pulled back. Historically, when listings are withdrawn en masse, it’s not the bottom; it’s the phase where neither side has accepted the new clearing price yet. Eventually, either rates fall meaningfully, incomes catch up, or prices do the work. Right now, sellers stepping away is the market telling you that adjustment is still unfinished.
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🏠 Why Home Sellers Are Quietly Tapping Out
A growing share of sellers are pulling listings because homes are sitting longer, offers are softer, and cutting prices feels like locking in a loss. Redfin data shows nearly 70% of homes listed in September sat on the market for 60+ days, and roughly 15% of delistings were at risk of selling below purchase price, which helps explain why owners would rather wait than blink first.
What this says about the housing market
This is what a frozen market looks like. Buyers are constrained by affordability and rates; sellers are anchored to 2021–2022 price memories. So instead of prices clearing lower in a clean way, supply gets artificially pulled back. Historically, when listings are withdrawn en masse, it’s not the bottom; it’s the phase where neither side has accepted the new clearing price yet. Eventually, either rates fall meaningfully, incomes catch up, or prices do the work. Right now, sellers stepping away is the market telling you that adjustment is still unfinished.
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Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, I t’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
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Warren Buffett’s Subtle Warning About the Endgame of Debt
This is Warren Buffett speaking on May 3, 2025, at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholder Meeting broadcast on CNBC. His point isn’t about imminent collapse, I t’s about incentives and arithmetic. Modern democracies are structurally wired to spend more than they tax, especially when growth slows and voters feel pressure. Promising relief is rewarded; restraint isn’t. Over time, that bias shows up as persistent deficits, rising debt loads, and a growing dependence on easier money to smooth the cycle. That’s the backdrop of today: elevated delinquencies, a massive 2026 refinancing wall, stressed commercial real estate, and government interest costs at their highest levels since the GFC. None of this requires bad actors, it’s the system doing what it’s designed to do when obligations outrun growth.
What makes Buffett’s warning matter is the gap between concern and inevitability. He’s uneasy about long term currency erosion, yet Berkshire’s huge cash and Treasury position tells you he still sees the dollar as the best house in a shaky neighborhood. But the sequence is familiar with stress first, intervention second. As refinancing pressure builds and growth cools, the Fed’s room to maneuver narrows. Rates can stay restrictive only until something breaks, at which point the playbook tends to reappear with liquidity backstops, renewed QE, and eventually some form of financial repression. It’s not a call for panic or an imminent crash; it’s a reminder that currency strength is preserved carefully or diluted gradually, then suddenly, when the math leaves no alternative.
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