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The Few Bets That Matter
Friendly reminder that $ORCL has a massive cash generation and that it has been accelerating post AI cloud services.
A moment will come where its cash generation will healthily cover its debt. https://t.co/pOk5rdnric
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Friendly reminder that $ORCL has a massive cash generation and that it has been accelerating post AI cloud services.
A moment will come where its cash generation will healthily cover its debt. https://t.co/pOk5rdnric
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EndGame Macro
Venezuela Is on the Tape And Markets Are Still Waiting for Confirmation
If there were a probable escalation of military action, and if Trump were set to address the nation tonight, we’d usually expect to see markets leaning harder into that risk ahead of time. What we’re seeing instead looks more conditional with equities softer, volatility up a notch, oil and gold bid, the market acknowledging the headline without committing to the outcome. That’s consistent with traders treating this as a binary event, where it makes more sense to wait for confirmation than to fully reposition early.
That said, this isn’t a clean nothing is priced signal either. A lot of real war risk pricing happens off the main screens in shipping rates, insurance premia, crude differentials, and dealer hedging and not necessarily in the S&P or the VIX. And Venezuela is a scenario markets could view as containable, which keeps reactions narrow until something definitive happens. So markets seem aware of the situation and lightly hedged, and skeptical. If the address turns probability into action, pricing will likely shift fast and mechanically. Until then, this looks like a market standing by the door and aware of the situation but not convinced enough to run. Let’s see what he has to say tonight…
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Venezuela Is on the Tape And Markets Are Still Waiting for Confirmation
If there were a probable escalation of military action, and if Trump were set to address the nation tonight, we’d usually expect to see markets leaning harder into that risk ahead of time. What we’re seeing instead looks more conditional with equities softer, volatility up a notch, oil and gold bid, the market acknowledging the headline without committing to the outcome. That’s consistent with traders treating this as a binary event, where it makes more sense to wait for confirmation than to fully reposition early.
That said, this isn’t a clean nothing is priced signal either. A lot of real war risk pricing happens off the main screens in shipping rates, insurance premia, crude differentials, and dealer hedging and not necessarily in the S&P or the VIX. And Venezuela is a scenario markets could view as containable, which keeps reactions narrow until something definitive happens. So markets seem aware of the situation and lightly hedged, and skeptical. If the address turns probability into action, pricing will likely shift fast and mechanically. Until then, this looks like a market standing by the door and aware of the situation but not convinced enough to run. Let’s see what he has to say tonight…
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The Few Bets That Matter
$MU proving once again that demand for hardware is inevitable, be it GPUs, TPUs, memory, accelerators...
While the market sells $NVDA and $ALAB on fears of rising competition, it misses the bigger picture: the total compute “cake” is exploding.
Even with lower market share, a slice of tomorrow’s market can be twice the size of a 100% market share just two years ago.
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$MU proving once again that demand for hardware is inevitable, be it GPUs, TPUs, memory, accelerators...
While the market sells $NVDA and $ALAB on fears of rising competition, it misses the bigger picture: the total compute “cake” is exploding.
Even with lower market share, a slice of tomorrow’s market can be twice the size of a 100% market share just two years ago.
The AI trade isn't over.
$NBIS $ALAB
👇 https://t.co/g2onKBMbzw tweet
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Clark Square Capital
RT @ClarkSquareCap: Just shared a new write-up on a left-for-dead US-listed stock. Be sure to check it out. https://t.co/xT3CrKGqoA
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RT @ClarkSquareCap: Just shared a new write-up on a left-for-dead US-listed stock. Be sure to check it out. https://t.co/xT3CrKGqoA
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Wasteland Capital
I’m short of words to describe this $MU earnings report.
Revenue +57% y-on-y, +21% on last Q. EPS +167%.
Guide is off the f**king charts. Next Q revenue +30% above consensus, $18.7 bn vs $14.3bn (WTF!?!).
This is absolutely mindblowing.
The Memory Man wins again. https://t.co/9ehiqcI55K
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I’m short of words to describe this $MU earnings report.
Revenue +57% y-on-y, +21% on last Q. EPS +167%.
Guide is off the f**king charts. Next Q revenue +30% above consensus, $18.7 bn vs $14.3bn (WTF!?!).
This is absolutely mindblowing.
The Memory Man wins again. https://t.co/9ehiqcI55K
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App Economy Insights
$MU Micron Q1 FY26 (November quarter).
• Revenue +57% Y/Y to $13.6B ($0.8B beat).
☁️ Cloud Memory +100% Y/Y.
⚙️ Core Data Center +4% Y/Y.
📱 Mobile & Client +63% Y/Y.
🛞 Auto & Embedded +49% Y/Y.
• Non-GAAP EPS $4.78 ($0.82 beat). https://t.co/0IPiFbFvU6
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$MU Micron Q1 FY26 (November quarter).
• Revenue +57% Y/Y to $13.6B ($0.8B beat).
☁️ Cloud Memory +100% Y/Y.
⚙️ Core Data Center +4% Y/Y.
📱 Mobile & Client +63% Y/Y.
🛞 Auto & Embedded +49% Y/Y.
• Non-GAAP EPS $4.78 ($0.82 beat). https://t.co/0IPiFbFvU6
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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
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RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
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EndGame Macro
Why Pressure on Venezuela Rarely Ends Until Leadership Changes
This isn’t about the U.S. literally owning oil fields in Venezuela. It’s about decades of contracts, concessions, and investments that got pushed out as Venezuela in 1976 nationalized in its oil industry and tightened control over PDVSA. Some U.S. companies left, some sued, and Chevron stayed in a narrow lane under special waivers. Since then, U.S. policy has been a balancing act where they apply pressure, but keep just enough access to retain leverage. That’s how we ended up with sanctions, carve outs, and now a blockade.
Why this keeps escalating
History is pretty consistent here. When a country nationalizes strategic Western assets and then refuses to negotiate a way forward, the response usually isn’t instant war…it’s sanctions, isolation, financial pressure, and indirect moves aimed at forcing a political outcome. Iran in the 50s, Guatemala, Chile, Cuba, Libya…different details, same pattern. Mexico in 1938 is the exception people forget, and that only worked because they negotiated and paid compensation. In most cases, pressure doesn’t really ease until the leadership changes or gets out of the way.
Where this leaves us now
So the blockade isn’t a random flare up, just the next step in a long standoff that’s been building for years. The likely endgame is Maduro eventually having to step aside so a deal can be cut and the system can reset. Whether this stops here or keeps escalating depends less on speeches and more on behavior of whether or not Caracas bends, bargains, or decides to double down. History suggests that when the door stays shut, pressure doesn’t fade, it just tightens until something gives.
tweet
Why Pressure on Venezuela Rarely Ends Until Leadership Changes
This isn’t about the U.S. literally owning oil fields in Venezuela. It’s about decades of contracts, concessions, and investments that got pushed out as Venezuela in 1976 nationalized in its oil industry and tightened control over PDVSA. Some U.S. companies left, some sued, and Chevron stayed in a narrow lane under special waivers. Since then, U.S. policy has been a balancing act where they apply pressure, but keep just enough access to retain leverage. That’s how we ended up with sanctions, carve outs, and now a blockade.
Why this keeps escalating
History is pretty consistent here. When a country nationalizes strategic Western assets and then refuses to negotiate a way forward, the response usually isn’t instant war…it’s sanctions, isolation, financial pressure, and indirect moves aimed at forcing a political outcome. Iran in the 50s, Guatemala, Chile, Cuba, Libya…different details, same pattern. Mexico in 1938 is the exception people forget, and that only worked because they negotiated and paid compensation. In most cases, pressure doesn’t really ease until the leadership changes or gets out of the way.
Where this leaves us now
So the blockade isn’t a random flare up, just the next step in a long standoff that’s been building for years. The likely endgame is Maduro eventually having to step aside so a deal can be cut and the system can reset. Whether this stops here or keeps escalating depends less on speeches and more on behavior of whether or not Caracas bends, bargains, or decides to double down. History suggests that when the door stays shut, pressure doesn’t fade, it just tightens until something gives.
PRESIDENT TRUMP:
"Venezuela took all of our oil and we want it back."
Oil prices rise to a new high of the day. https://t.co/4qtUArsogC tweet