Clark Square Capital
RT @BerkelKip: Any small US fund managers recommend their auditor? Mine got acquired by a larger firm last year and jacked prices...
tweet
RT @BerkelKip: Any small US fund managers recommend their auditor? Mine got acquired by a larger firm last year and jacked prices...
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
When Oracle’s AI Story Starts Showing Up in CDS
The market is starting to look at Oracle less like a pure software company and more like a company taking on a massive, long dated infrastructure build. AI data centers sound exciting, but they’re capital heavy, slow to monetize, and extremely sensitive to financing terms. When news breaks that a major funding partner steps away or renegotiates, it forces investors to ask tougher questions about how these projects actually pencil out.
Why the CDS move matters more than the stock
The real signal is Oracle’s credit default swaps pushing above 150 basis points. CDS is the price of insuring Oracle’s debt. When that cost jumps, the credit market is saying it sees higher risk ahead. Not default tomorrow, but more leverage, more execution risk, and less margin for error.
Credit tends to get there before equity because it has to. Equity can live on optimism and long term stories. Credit lives on cash flow, balance sheets, and timing. Once spreads widen, funding gets more expensive, deal terms get tougher, and the math on big projects gets harder. That’s when confidence starts to wobble.
My View
This is a reminder that the AI build out isn’t free. When financing friction shows up, the market stops pricing upside first and starts pricing risk first. CDS widening tells you the market wants to be paid more to underwrite that risk and that usually happens when expectations shift from this will work to show me it can.
tweet
When Oracle’s AI Story Starts Showing Up in CDS
The market is starting to look at Oracle less like a pure software company and more like a company taking on a massive, long dated infrastructure build. AI data centers sound exciting, but they’re capital heavy, slow to monetize, and extremely sensitive to financing terms. When news breaks that a major funding partner steps away or renegotiates, it forces investors to ask tougher questions about how these projects actually pencil out.
Why the CDS move matters more than the stock
The real signal is Oracle’s credit default swaps pushing above 150 basis points. CDS is the price of insuring Oracle’s debt. When that cost jumps, the credit market is saying it sees higher risk ahead. Not default tomorrow, but more leverage, more execution risk, and less margin for error.
Credit tends to get there before equity because it has to. Equity can live on optimism and long term stories. Credit lives on cash flow, balance sheets, and timing. Once spreads widen, funding gets more expensive, deal terms get tougher, and the math on big projects gets harder. That’s when confidence starts to wobble.
My View
This is a reminder that the AI build out isn’t free. When financing friction shows up, the market stops pricing upside first and starts pricing risk first. CDS widening tells you the market wants to be paid more to underwrite that risk and that usually happens when expectations shift from this will work to show me it can.
BREAKING: Credit default swap spreads on Oracle's, $ORCL, debt have surged above 150 bps.
Investors are selling the stock over concerns around the company's ability to deliver on recently announced data center buildouts. https://t.co/40SIicXLJd tweet
AkhenOsiris
$NET $JD
Cloudflare and JD Cloud announced an expansion of their partnership to create a global platform for AI inference workloads. The companies project the collaboration will reduce latency for AI inference by up to 80 percent.
The partnership aims to connect global developers to the China market and Chinese developers to international markets through a unified networking experience. The integration allows customers to activate their presence in China without changing code, with traffic automatically routed to local JD Cloud data centers while other traffic uses Cloudflare locations worldwide.
tweet
$NET $JD
Cloudflare and JD Cloud announced an expansion of their partnership to create a global platform for AI inference workloads. The companies project the collaboration will reduce latency for AI inference by up to 80 percent.
The partnership aims to connect global developers to the China market and Chinese developers to international markets through a unified networking experience. The integration allows customers to activate their presence in China without changing code, with traffic automatically routed to local JD Cloud data centers while other traffic uses Cloudflare locations worldwide.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
What's a few dollars between friends?
$ORCL price of $172.75 would be a 50% drawdown...$7 bucks away
tweet
What's a few dollars between friends?
$ORCL price of $172.75 would be a 50% drawdown...$7 bucks away
$ORCL now down 25% since the close before the RPO pop.
~$240 before RPO pop (ran to ~$340, now <$180}tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
It's hard to find better capital allocation than O'Reilly Automotive over the last decade.
Since 2011:
Shares Outstanding -56%
Earnings per Share +1,067%
$ORLY https://t.co/uNeOLq1PAp
tweet
It's hard to find better capital allocation than O'Reilly Automotive over the last decade.
Since 2011:
Shares Outstanding -56%
Earnings per Share +1,067%
$ORLY https://t.co/uNeOLq1PAp
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Tucker Carlson, discussing potential U.S. action against Venezuela on the Judging Freedom podcast, said he doesn't know if President Trump will start a war but revealed that members of Congress were briefed yesterday on an impending war, expected to be announced in a national address tonight at 9 p.m. though he cautioned he didn't want to overstate unconfirmed details. 🤔
tweet
Tucker Carlson, discussing potential U.S. action against Venezuela on the Judging Freedom podcast, said he doesn't know if President Trump will start a war but revealed that members of Congress were briefed yesterday on an impending war, expected to be announced in a national address tonight at 9 p.m. though he cautioned he didn't want to overstate unconfirmed details. 🤔
TUCKER: "Members of Congress were briefed yesterday that a war is coming and it will be announced in the address to the nation tonight."
https://t.co/LFbdRQvGXx tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
Friendly reminder that $ORCL has a massive cash generation and that it has been accelerating post AI cloud services.
A moment will come where its cash generation will healthily cover its debt. https://t.co/pOk5rdnric
tweet
Friendly reminder that $ORCL has a massive cash generation and that it has been accelerating post AI cloud services.
A moment will come where its cash generation will healthily cover its debt. https://t.co/pOk5rdnric
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Venezuela Is on the Tape And Markets Are Still Waiting for Confirmation
If there were a probable escalation of military action, and if Trump were set to address the nation tonight, we’d usually expect to see markets leaning harder into that risk ahead of time. What we’re seeing instead looks more conditional with equities softer, volatility up a notch, oil and gold bid, the market acknowledging the headline without committing to the outcome. That’s consistent with traders treating this as a binary event, where it makes more sense to wait for confirmation than to fully reposition early.
That said, this isn’t a clean nothing is priced signal either. A lot of real war risk pricing happens off the main screens in shipping rates, insurance premia, crude differentials, and dealer hedging and not necessarily in the S&P or the VIX. And Venezuela is a scenario markets could view as containable, which keeps reactions narrow until something definitive happens. So markets seem aware of the situation and lightly hedged, and skeptical. If the address turns probability into action, pricing will likely shift fast and mechanically. Until then, this looks like a market standing by the door and aware of the situation but not convinced enough to run. Let’s see what he has to say tonight…
tweet
Venezuela Is on the Tape And Markets Are Still Waiting for Confirmation
If there were a probable escalation of military action, and if Trump were set to address the nation tonight, we’d usually expect to see markets leaning harder into that risk ahead of time. What we’re seeing instead looks more conditional with equities softer, volatility up a notch, oil and gold bid, the market acknowledging the headline without committing to the outcome. That’s consistent with traders treating this as a binary event, where it makes more sense to wait for confirmation than to fully reposition early.
That said, this isn’t a clean nothing is priced signal either. A lot of real war risk pricing happens off the main screens in shipping rates, insurance premia, crude differentials, and dealer hedging and not necessarily in the S&P or the VIX. And Venezuela is a scenario markets could view as containable, which keeps reactions narrow until something definitive happens. So markets seem aware of the situation and lightly hedged, and skeptical. If the address turns probability into action, pricing will likely shift fast and mechanically. Until then, this looks like a market standing by the door and aware of the situation but not convinced enough to run. Let’s see what he has to say tonight…
tweet