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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/VMNQAOybUq
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Fed's Waller: We are not seeing the job market go off a cliff tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Shares of Roblox are now down 23% since they added 40 million DAUs in a single quarter.
$RBLX https://t.co/vUcex9YYQM
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Shares of Roblox are now down 23% since they added 40 million DAUs in a single quarter.
$RBLX https://t.co/vUcex9YYQM
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Oracle is now down 40%+ from its highs
After peaking at ~46x earnings, $ORCL multiple has been nearly halved
That’s the risk of chasing stocks at euphoric valuations — when sentiment cools, multiple compression can do far more damage than fundamentals
$ORCL balance sheet 🚨 https://t.co/D6F5yFHBcD
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Oracle is now down 40%+ from its highs
After peaking at ~46x earnings, $ORCL multiple has been nearly halved
That’s the risk of chasing stocks at euphoric valuations — when sentiment cools, multiple compression can do far more damage than fundamentals
$ORCL balance sheet 🚨 https://t.co/D6F5yFHBcD
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EndGame Macro
Why JPMorgan Is Locking In Yield Now
JPM is moving money that earns whatever the Fed pays today into Treasuries that lock in a yield for longer. It’s less about making a call on the next meeting and more about getting set for the next phase of the cycle.
What they expect from the Fed and the economy
In my opinion JPM sees rates drifting lower and growth slowing, not reaccelerating. In that world, cash stops being attractive pretty quickly. Every cut makes reserves less valuable. Treasuries, on the other hand, do two things at once..they hold their yield and they tend to rise in price when the Fed leans easier. That’s a good trade if you think policy support is about stability, not reflation.
There’s also a plumbing angle. When the Fed steps away from QT, it’s usually because the system needs breathing room. Banks that remember 2019 and 2008 know how fast liquidity can matter again.
Why history backs this up
JPM has been here before. In 2019, small reserve changes turned into a repo shock. In 2008, the institutions with clean collateral and flexibility survived while others scrambled. And in 2022, loading up on duration too early was a painful lesson many banks learned the hard way.
This is JPM preparing for a softer economy, easier policy, and a market that starts caring less about squeezing returns and more about staying liquid. When a bank this size makes a move like this, it’s usually about being early to what matters next.
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Why JPMorgan Is Locking In Yield Now
JPM is moving money that earns whatever the Fed pays today into Treasuries that lock in a yield for longer. It’s less about making a call on the next meeting and more about getting set for the next phase of the cycle.
What they expect from the Fed and the economy
In my opinion JPM sees rates drifting lower and growth slowing, not reaccelerating. In that world, cash stops being attractive pretty quickly. Every cut makes reserves less valuable. Treasuries, on the other hand, do two things at once..they hold their yield and they tend to rise in price when the Fed leans easier. That’s a good trade if you think policy support is about stability, not reflation.
There’s also a plumbing angle. When the Fed steps away from QT, it’s usually because the system needs breathing room. Banks that remember 2019 and 2008 know how fast liquidity can matter again.
Why history backs this up
JPM has been here before. In 2019, small reserve changes turned into a repo shock. In 2008, the institutions with clean collateral and flexibility survived while others scrambled. And in 2022, loading up on duration too early was a painful lesson many banks learned the hard way.
This is JPM preparing for a softer economy, easier policy, and a market that starts caring less about squeezing returns and more about staying liquid. When a bank this size makes a move like this, it’s usually about being early to what matters next.
JPMORGAN PULLS $350 BLN FROM FEDERAL RESERVE TO BUY UP TREASURIES - FT tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
First Squawk (@FirstSquawk) on X
JPMORGAN PULLS $350 BLN FROM FEDERAL RESERVE TO BUY UP TREASURIES - FT
Clark Square Capital
RT @BerkelKip: Any small US fund managers recommend their auditor? Mine got acquired by a larger firm last year and jacked prices...
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RT @BerkelKip: Any small US fund managers recommend their auditor? Mine got acquired by a larger firm last year and jacked prices...
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EndGame Macro
When Oracle’s AI Story Starts Showing Up in CDS
The market is starting to look at Oracle less like a pure software company and more like a company taking on a massive, long dated infrastructure build. AI data centers sound exciting, but they’re capital heavy, slow to monetize, and extremely sensitive to financing terms. When news breaks that a major funding partner steps away or renegotiates, it forces investors to ask tougher questions about how these projects actually pencil out.
Why the CDS move matters more than the stock
The real signal is Oracle’s credit default swaps pushing above 150 basis points. CDS is the price of insuring Oracle’s debt. When that cost jumps, the credit market is saying it sees higher risk ahead. Not default tomorrow, but more leverage, more execution risk, and less margin for error.
Credit tends to get there before equity because it has to. Equity can live on optimism and long term stories. Credit lives on cash flow, balance sheets, and timing. Once spreads widen, funding gets more expensive, deal terms get tougher, and the math on big projects gets harder. That’s when confidence starts to wobble.
My View
This is a reminder that the AI build out isn’t free. When financing friction shows up, the market stops pricing upside first and starts pricing risk first. CDS widening tells you the market wants to be paid more to underwrite that risk and that usually happens when expectations shift from this will work to show me it can.
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When Oracle’s AI Story Starts Showing Up in CDS
The market is starting to look at Oracle less like a pure software company and more like a company taking on a massive, long dated infrastructure build. AI data centers sound exciting, but they’re capital heavy, slow to monetize, and extremely sensitive to financing terms. When news breaks that a major funding partner steps away or renegotiates, it forces investors to ask tougher questions about how these projects actually pencil out.
Why the CDS move matters more than the stock
The real signal is Oracle’s credit default swaps pushing above 150 basis points. CDS is the price of insuring Oracle’s debt. When that cost jumps, the credit market is saying it sees higher risk ahead. Not default tomorrow, but more leverage, more execution risk, and less margin for error.
Credit tends to get there before equity because it has to. Equity can live on optimism and long term stories. Credit lives on cash flow, balance sheets, and timing. Once spreads widen, funding gets more expensive, deal terms get tougher, and the math on big projects gets harder. That’s when confidence starts to wobble.
My View
This is a reminder that the AI build out isn’t free. When financing friction shows up, the market stops pricing upside first and starts pricing risk first. CDS widening tells you the market wants to be paid more to underwrite that risk and that usually happens when expectations shift from this will work to show me it can.
BREAKING: Credit default swap spreads on Oracle's, $ORCL, debt have surged above 150 bps.
Investors are selling the stock over concerns around the company's ability to deliver on recently announced data center buildouts. https://t.co/40SIicXLJd tweet
AkhenOsiris
$NET $JD
Cloudflare and JD Cloud announced an expansion of their partnership to create a global platform for AI inference workloads. The companies project the collaboration will reduce latency for AI inference by up to 80 percent.
The partnership aims to connect global developers to the China market and Chinese developers to international markets through a unified networking experience. The integration allows customers to activate their presence in China without changing code, with traffic automatically routed to local JD Cloud data centers while other traffic uses Cloudflare locations worldwide.
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$NET $JD
Cloudflare and JD Cloud announced an expansion of their partnership to create a global platform for AI inference workloads. The companies project the collaboration will reduce latency for AI inference by up to 80 percent.
The partnership aims to connect global developers to the China market and Chinese developers to international markets through a unified networking experience. The integration allows customers to activate their presence in China without changing code, with traffic automatically routed to local JD Cloud data centers while other traffic uses Cloudflare locations worldwide.
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AkhenOsiris
What's a few dollars between friends?
$ORCL price of $172.75 would be a 50% drawdown...$7 bucks away
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What's a few dollars between friends?
$ORCL price of $172.75 would be a 50% drawdown...$7 bucks away
$ORCL now down 25% since the close before the RPO pop.
~$240 before RPO pop (ran to ~$340, now <$180}tweet
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Fiscal.ai
It's hard to find better capital allocation than O'Reilly Automotive over the last decade.
Since 2011:
Shares Outstanding -56%
Earnings per Share +1,067%
$ORLY https://t.co/uNeOLq1PAp
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It's hard to find better capital allocation than O'Reilly Automotive over the last decade.
Since 2011:
Shares Outstanding -56%
Earnings per Share +1,067%
$ORLY https://t.co/uNeOLq1PAp
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