Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
tweet
BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
tweet
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX should & will trade above $150 sooner rather than later.
Only one metric matters: annual transplant cases. Management's target is 10,000 and should be reached before EOY28.
At ~$103k per case (FY23–24 avg), that’s $1.03B in revenue.
We have a 25%+ grower in an expanding healthcare niche, largely insulated from AI risk, CapEx cycles, tariffs and recession noise.
Peers in the same sector with comparable growth trade 7–10x sales.
Middle ground gives you $8.8B valuation, or ~$256/share once 10k cases are reached - within the next two years as per management once again.
This is based on measured growth target and peer valuation.
Even with a lower multiples due to expansion execution risks, $TMDX stock price remains muted today, mostly by a missfocus from analysts and an incomprehension from the market.
👇
https://t.co/FThbpSnXtX
tweet
$TMDX should & will trade above $150 sooner rather than later.
Only one metric matters: annual transplant cases. Management's target is 10,000 and should be reached before EOY28.
At ~$103k per case (FY23–24 avg), that’s $1.03B in revenue.
We have a 25%+ grower in an expanding healthcare niche, largely insulated from AI risk, CapEx cycles, tariffs and recession noise.
Peers in the same sector with comparable growth trade 7–10x sales.
Middle ground gives you $8.8B valuation, or ~$256/share once 10k cases are reached - within the next two years as per management once again.
This is based on measured growth target and peer valuation.
Even with a lower multiples due to expansion execution risks, $TMDX stock price remains muted today, mostly by a missfocus from analysts and an incomprehension from the market.
👇
https://t.co/FThbpSnXtX
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/usu7Mj4yti
tweet
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/usu7Mj4yti
tweet
Wasteland Capital
At this point, the insane velocity of shipping new AI features and products at Google is simply unprecedented. They seem to be shipping more than all other AI companies combined.
Everyone else is focused on fund raising. $GOOG just ships new product.
tweet
At this point, the insane velocity of shipping new AI features and products at Google is simply unprecedented. They seem to be shipping more than all other AI companies combined.
Everyone else is focused on fund raising. $GOOG just ships new product.
Learning just leveled up.
Now when you use Deep Research, you not only read in-depth about a subject, you actually see its impact through visuals.
Get charts, diagrams, animations, and more for a deeper understanding. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
G3mini (@GeminiApp) on X
Learning just leveled up.
Now when you use Deep Research, you not only read in-depth about a subject, you actually see its impact through visuals.
Get charts, diagrams, animations, and more for a deeper understanding.
Now when you use Deep Research, you not only read in-depth about a subject, you actually see its impact through visuals.
Get charts, diagrams, animations, and more for a deeper understanding.
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: Oracle’s Future Is Big But The Bill Is Bigger
Cloud revenue is growing fast, up to about $8B this quarter from $6B a year ago, while traditional software is flat to down. Oracle is no longer just selling licenses; it’s increasingly running workloads.
The backlog is the headline number for a reason. RPO jumped to $523B, up from under $100B a year ago, driven by a handful of very large cloud contracts. These are signed commitments. The catch is timing, only about 10% converts to revenue in the next 12 months. Most of it lives years out.
Operating profitability is still solid. Core margins aren’t distressed, and the business is not falling apart operationally.
What looks strong but is partly cosmetic
Net income almost doubled, but that’s not because the business suddenly became far more profitable. A large portion came from non operating investment gains, not customers or pricing power.
The tax rate also flatters the quarter. Oracle explicitly tells you that once you strip out one offs, the real tax rate is closer to 21%. In other words…don’t extrapolate this quarter’s GAAP earnings too far.
Cash on hand went up, but mostly because Oracle issued debt and sold an investment, not because free cash flow suddenly surged. This wasn’t a cash harvesting quarter, it was a funding quarter.
Where the pressure is building
The strain isn’t on the revenue line. It’s on the cost of becoming a cloud infrastructure company at speed.
Cloud costs are rising fast. Data center capacity is expensive, and Oracle says directly that these costs will continue climbing as it expands footprint and geography. Segment margins are compressing, and restructuring charges are showing up as the company tries to keep that compression contained.
This is the classic transition risk where revenue can look fine for a while even as cash economics worsen, because spending happens up front and revenue arrives later.
Balance sheet and cash flow reality
Oracle is clearly in build mode.
Property, plant, and equipment jumped sharply in just 6 months. Total assets ballooned. Debt is higher, and recent issuance locked in long dated fixed coupons in the mid 4% to low 6% range, which tells you financing is no longer cheap.
The most important disclosure is off the balance sheet where Oracle has $248B in uncommitted future data center lease obligations, starting in FY26–FY28, with 15–19 year terms. These don’t fully show up yet, but they are real future costs.
Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is deeply negative because capex is running far ahead of cash generation. Some of that spend hasn’t even hit cash yet and is sitting in unpaid capex.
Liquidity looks better, but it’s been engineered to support the buildout, not because the business is throwing off excess cash.
Why the stock is acting this way
The market isn’t confused about growth. It’s uneasy about timing and execution.
Oracle is being repriced like an infrastructure builder, not a pure software name. When long term rates are high and credit is less forgiving, investors get less patient with “we’ll earn it later” stories especially when the company has already committed to massive fixed costs.
That’s why even rumors about delays matter. It’s not about whether Oracle is lying. It’s about the fact that small timing slips matter a lot when spending is front loaded and margins are under pressure.
My Read
Oracle today is a company with real cloud demand and a massive long term opportunity, but also very real near term financial strain from building that future all at once.
Earnings optics look good, but cash flow tells a harder story. The balance sheet can handle it for now but the margin for execution error is thinner than the stock price was implying.
The market isn’t rejecting the growth story. It’s deciding how much it trusts Oracle to deliver it on time, at scale, and without letting cash flow and leverage become the story instead.
[...]
RT @onechancefreedm: Oracle’s Future Is Big But The Bill Is Bigger
Cloud revenue is growing fast, up to about $8B this quarter from $6B a year ago, while traditional software is flat to down. Oracle is no longer just selling licenses; it’s increasingly running workloads.
The backlog is the headline number for a reason. RPO jumped to $523B, up from under $100B a year ago, driven by a handful of very large cloud contracts. These are signed commitments. The catch is timing, only about 10% converts to revenue in the next 12 months. Most of it lives years out.
Operating profitability is still solid. Core margins aren’t distressed, and the business is not falling apart operationally.
What looks strong but is partly cosmetic
Net income almost doubled, but that’s not because the business suddenly became far more profitable. A large portion came from non operating investment gains, not customers or pricing power.
The tax rate also flatters the quarter. Oracle explicitly tells you that once you strip out one offs, the real tax rate is closer to 21%. In other words…don’t extrapolate this quarter’s GAAP earnings too far.
Cash on hand went up, but mostly because Oracle issued debt and sold an investment, not because free cash flow suddenly surged. This wasn’t a cash harvesting quarter, it was a funding quarter.
Where the pressure is building
The strain isn’t on the revenue line. It’s on the cost of becoming a cloud infrastructure company at speed.
Cloud costs are rising fast. Data center capacity is expensive, and Oracle says directly that these costs will continue climbing as it expands footprint and geography. Segment margins are compressing, and restructuring charges are showing up as the company tries to keep that compression contained.
This is the classic transition risk where revenue can look fine for a while even as cash economics worsen, because spending happens up front and revenue arrives later.
Balance sheet and cash flow reality
Oracle is clearly in build mode.
Property, plant, and equipment jumped sharply in just 6 months. Total assets ballooned. Debt is higher, and recent issuance locked in long dated fixed coupons in the mid 4% to low 6% range, which tells you financing is no longer cheap.
The most important disclosure is off the balance sheet where Oracle has $248B in uncommitted future data center lease obligations, starting in FY26–FY28, with 15–19 year terms. These don’t fully show up yet, but they are real future costs.
Operating cash flow is positive, but free cash flow is deeply negative because capex is running far ahead of cash generation. Some of that spend hasn’t even hit cash yet and is sitting in unpaid capex.
Liquidity looks better, but it’s been engineered to support the buildout, not because the business is throwing off excess cash.
Why the stock is acting this way
The market isn’t confused about growth. It’s uneasy about timing and execution.
Oracle is being repriced like an infrastructure builder, not a pure software name. When long term rates are high and credit is less forgiving, investors get less patient with “we’ll earn it later” stories especially when the company has already committed to massive fixed costs.
That’s why even rumors about delays matter. It’s not about whether Oracle is lying. It’s about the fact that small timing slips matter a lot when spending is front loaded and margins are under pressure.
My Read
Oracle today is a company with real cloud demand and a massive long term opportunity, but also very real near term financial strain from building that future all at once.
Earnings optics look good, but cash flow tells a harder story. The balance sheet can handle it for now but the margin for execution error is thinner than the stock price was implying.
The market isn’t rejecting the growth story. It’s deciding how much it trusts Oracle to deliver it on time, at scale, and without letting cash flow and leverage become the story instead.
[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro RT @onechancefreedm: Oracle’s Future Is Big But The Bill Is Bigger Cloud revenue is growing fast, up to about $8B this quarter from $6B a year ago, while traditional software is flat to down. Oracle is no longer just selling licenses; it’s increasingly…
Oracle Shares Rebound After Denying 'Delays' https://t.co/V9H3ghr5CB - zerohedge tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Signal Burry Pointed To in Household Wealth
This isn’t saying people have ditched housing for stocks. It’s showing that, at the system level, equity gains have grown so large that stocks now make up a bigger share of household net worth than real estate. That only tends to happen when markets have run well ahead of the rest of the economy. It’s less a snapshot of confidence and more a measure of imbalance.
You don’t see this setup often. When it shows up, it’s usually late in the cycle, after years of strong returns have pulled future gains forward.
Why the risk matters
Stocks move fast. Housing doesn’t. When most of the wealth effect is coming from something that can reprice in weeks instead of years, the economy becomes more sensitive to drawdowns. A selloff doesn’t just hit portfolios…it hits spending, hiring, and sentiment all at once.
The modern wrinkle is concentration. A big share of household equity exposure now sits inside index funds, and those indexes are increasingly driven by a handful of names. That means the system doesn’t need a broad collapse to feel pain. Stress in a few leaders can ripple outward quickly.
The historical warning
The last time this balance tipped was in the late 60s and late 90s and the adjustment didn’t come through housing strength. It came through equity underperformance over time. Not always dramatic, but persistent. Years where markets went sideways, valuations slowly came down, and investors learned that paper wealth can fade without a single obvious catalyst.
That’s the real risk here. Not an imminent crash, but a setup where the upside requires everything to keep going right while the downside only needs something small to go wrong.
tweet
The Signal Burry Pointed To in Household Wealth
This isn’t saying people have ditched housing for stocks. It’s showing that, at the system level, equity gains have grown so large that stocks now make up a bigger share of household net worth than real estate. That only tends to happen when markets have run well ahead of the rest of the economy. It’s less a snapshot of confidence and more a measure of imbalance.
You don’t see this setup often. When it shows up, it’s usually late in the cycle, after years of strong returns have pulled future gains forward.
Why the risk matters
Stocks move fast. Housing doesn’t. When most of the wealth effect is coming from something that can reprice in weeks instead of years, the economy becomes more sensitive to drawdowns. A selloff doesn’t just hit portfolios…it hits spending, hiring, and sentiment all at once.
The modern wrinkle is concentration. A big share of household equity exposure now sits inside index funds, and those indexes are increasingly driven by a handful of names. That means the system doesn’t need a broad collapse to feel pain. Stress in a few leaders can ripple outward quickly.
The historical warning
The last time this balance tipped was in the late 60s and late 90s and the adjustment didn’t come through housing strength. It came through equity underperformance over time. Not always dramatic, but persistent. Years where markets went sideways, valuations slowly came down, and investors learned that paper wealth can fade without a single obvious catalyst.
That’s the real risk here. Not an imminent crash, but a setup where the upside requires everything to keep going right while the downside only needs something small to go wrong.
This is a very interesting chart, as household stock wealth being higher than real estate wealth has only happened in the late 60s and late 90s, the last two times the ensuing bear market lasted years.
Beary Burry https://t.co/OqD3B7qGIl tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Gold and silver track Japan’s 10 year because Japan has been the anchor of ultra low rates and cheap global funding for decades. When JGB yields rise, it signals that the market is questioning how long financial repression and debt monetization can hold. That pushes investors toward assets that don’t rely on central banks or government balance sheets. It’s not the yield itself, it’s what the move represents like rising sovereign risk, tighter global liquidity, and uncertainty about currency credibility. Gold responds as protection, and silver follows with more volatility.
tweet
Gold and silver track Japan’s 10 year because Japan has been the anchor of ultra low rates and cheap global funding for decades. When JGB yields rise, it signals that the market is questioning how long financial repression and debt monetization can hold. That pushes investors toward assets that don’t rely on central banks or government balance sheets. It’s not the yield itself, it’s what the move represents like rising sovereign risk, tighter global liquidity, and uncertainty about currency credibility. Gold responds as protection, and silver follows with more volatility.
🔥Gold and silver are moving almost perfectly in line with Japanese government bond yields:
Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen roughly 1.5 percentage points since the beginning of 2023, reaching 1.98%, the highest level since the 1990s.
During this same period, gold and silver prices have skyrocketed by 135% and 175%, respectively.
Precious metals are being used as a primary hedge against the rising cost of government debt.
Incredible shift. tweet
EndGame Macro
Data Centers…Demand Is There, Permission Is Not
This isn’t about demand slowing for data centers. Demand is still there. What’s changing is the politics around them. DeKalb County’s extension of the moratorium is really about local pushback finally catching up with an industry that grew fast and quietly. Residents are focused on the tangible costs like noise, diesel generators, power and water usage, quality of life issues and local governments are responding by slowing things down so they can rewrite the rules.
Why the business model gets harder
For companies building and operating data centers, time suddenly matters a lot more. Delays push revenue out while costs keep running. New projects now face more permitting risk, more legal and community negotiations, and more required spending to mitigate environmental and health concerns. On top of that, the generous tax incentives that used to smooth approvals are increasingly under scrutiny, which compresses returns even further.
The irony is that constrained supply can lift pricing for existing, approved facilities, but it also makes growth less predictable. What used to be a fairly straightforward infrastructure play is turning into a capital intensive, politically exposed business. Going forward, the winners are likely the operators who already have sites permitted and plugged into the grid and the losers are the ones counting on frictionless expansion that no longer exists.
tweet
Data Centers…Demand Is There, Permission Is Not
This isn’t about demand slowing for data centers. Demand is still there. What’s changing is the politics around them. DeKalb County’s extension of the moratorium is really about local pushback finally catching up with an industry that grew fast and quietly. Residents are focused on the tangible costs like noise, diesel generators, power and water usage, quality of life issues and local governments are responding by slowing things down so they can rewrite the rules.
Why the business model gets harder
For companies building and operating data centers, time suddenly matters a lot more. Delays push revenue out while costs keep running. New projects now face more permitting risk, more legal and community negotiations, and more required spending to mitigate environmental and health concerns. On top of that, the generous tax incentives that used to smooth approvals are increasingly under scrutiny, which compresses returns even further.
The irony is that constrained supply can lift pricing for existing, approved facilities, but it also makes growth less predictable. What used to be a fairly straightforward infrastructure play is turning into a capital intensive, politically exposed business. Going forward, the winners are likely the operators who already have sites permitted and plugged into the grid and the losers are the ones counting on frictionless expansion that no longer exists.
DeKalb County extends data center moratorium amid public health concerns
#MacroEdge tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) on X
DeKalb County extends data center moratorium amid public health concerns
#MacroEdge
#MacroEdge
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Why Full Exposure Feels Good Until It Doesn’t
This is a positioning story. Retail investors are already heavily in stocks, and professional managers aren’t hanging back either, they’re close to fully invested. When everyone is leaning the same way, the market doesn’t get stronger, it gets more fragile. There just isn’t much new money left to push prices higher if something changes.
Why managers end up fully invested
It’s about incentives. Managers are judged against benchmarks and peers, constantly. Being cautious too early is usually worse for a career than being late. So they stay invested, ride what’s working, and assume they’ll dial back risk once conditions shift. The problem is that markets don’t usually give you a slow, polite warning. When things change, they tend to change fast.
Why this matters for retirees
For retirees, this doesn’t feel like being all in. It feels diversified…spread across funds, accounts, and strategies. But when managers across the system are near max exposure, those distinctions matter less. When volatility spikes, risk isn’t reduced ahead of time. It’s reduced after prices are already falling. That means selling into weakness and locking in losses at exactly the wrong moment when stability matters most.
We’ve seen this setup before
No major financial crisis including 1907, 1929, 2000, or 2008 started with managers defensively positioned. They all started with confidence, crowding, and high exposure. Risk only came off after liquidity broke, volatility surged, and correlations snapped higher.
This kind of setup isn’t a timing signal. It’s a risk signal. When positioning is this full, upside gets harder and downside tends to arrive faster than people expect, not because everyone is wrong, but because everyone is already in.
tweet
Why Full Exposure Feels Good Until It Doesn’t
This is a positioning story. Retail investors are already heavily in stocks, and professional managers aren’t hanging back either, they’re close to fully invested. When everyone is leaning the same way, the market doesn’t get stronger, it gets more fragile. There just isn’t much new money left to push prices higher if something changes.
Why managers end up fully invested
It’s about incentives. Managers are judged against benchmarks and peers, constantly. Being cautious too early is usually worse for a career than being late. So they stay invested, ride what’s working, and assume they’ll dial back risk once conditions shift. The problem is that markets don’t usually give you a slow, polite warning. When things change, they tend to change fast.
Why this matters for retirees
For retirees, this doesn’t feel like being all in. It feels diversified…spread across funds, accounts, and strategies. But when managers across the system are near max exposure, those distinctions matter less. When volatility spikes, risk isn’t reduced ahead of time. It’s reduced after prices are already falling. That means selling into weakness and locking in losses at exactly the wrong moment when stability matters most.
We’ve seen this setup before
No major financial crisis including 1907, 1929, 2000, or 2008 started with managers defensively positioned. They all started with confidence, crowding, and high exposure. Risk only came off after liquidity broke, volatility surged, and correlations snapped higher.
This kind of setup isn’t a timing signal. It’s a risk signal. When positioning is this full, upside gets harder and downside tends to arrive faster than people expect, not because everyone is wrong, but because everyone is already in.
Investment Managers now have close to 100% exposure to the stock market 🚨🚨 https://t.co/tFuKfiE14s tweet
Offshore
Video
The Few Bets That Matter
Imagine the size of demand if retail image generation forced a major player to shift R&D compute R&D to production.
A bubble? Hm...
We have so many features, so many products we wanna launch, that get held back because we don't have enough compute
https://t.co/WZKzLyFVNz
tweet
Imagine the size of demand if retail image generation forced a major player to shift R&D compute R&D to production.
A bubble? Hm...
We have so many features, so many products we wanna launch, that get held back because we don't have enough compute
https://t.co/WZKzLyFVNz
tweet