Offshore
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Giuliano
I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
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I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Maxwell Frost has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Frost is the first Gen Z member of Congress. https://t.co/o09oowNIUK
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JUST IN: Representative Maxwell Frost has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Frost is the first Gen Z member of Congress. https://t.co/o09oowNIUK
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: At 26x Earnings & a 4.16% FCF Yield, $SPGI appears to be one of the better risk/reward long-term opportunities in today’s market
*(NTM) https://t.co/17nSo9cLlK
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RT @DimitryNakhla: At 26x Earnings & a 4.16% FCF Yield, $SPGI appears to be one of the better risk/reward long-term opportunities in today’s market
*(NTM) https://t.co/17nSo9cLlK
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
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BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
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The Few Bets That Matter
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
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$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
tweet
Offshore
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The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX should & will trade above $150 sooner rather than later.
Only one metric matters: annual transplant cases. Management's target is 10,000 and should be reached before EOY28.
At ~$103k per case (FY23–24 avg), that’s $1.03B in revenue.
We have a 25%+ grower in an expanding healthcare niche, largely insulated from AI risk, CapEx cycles, tariffs and recession noise.
Peers in the same sector with comparable growth trade 7–10x sales.
Middle ground gives you $8.8B valuation, or ~$256/share once 10k cases are reached - within the next two years as per management once again.
This is based on measured growth target and peer valuation.
Even with a lower multiples due to expansion execution risks, $TMDX stock price remains muted today, mostly by a missfocus from analysts and an incomprehension from the market.
👇
https://t.co/FThbpSnXtX
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$TMDX should & will trade above $150 sooner rather than later.
Only one metric matters: annual transplant cases. Management's target is 10,000 and should be reached before EOY28.
At ~$103k per case (FY23–24 avg), that’s $1.03B in revenue.
We have a 25%+ grower in an expanding healthcare niche, largely insulated from AI risk, CapEx cycles, tariffs and recession noise.
Peers in the same sector with comparable growth trade 7–10x sales.
Middle ground gives you $8.8B valuation, or ~$256/share once 10k cases are reached - within the next two years as per management once again.
This is based on measured growth target and peer valuation.
Even with a lower multiples due to expansion execution risks, $TMDX stock price remains muted today, mostly by a missfocus from analysts and an incomprehension from the market.
👇
https://t.co/FThbpSnXtX
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/usu7Mj4yti
tweet
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/usu7Mj4yti
tweet