Offshore
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Giuliano
I've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/8M5LF57lwP
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I've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/8M5LF57lwP
tweet
Offshore
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Giuliano
I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
tweet
I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Maxwell Frost has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Frost is the first Gen Z member of Congress. https://t.co/o09oowNIUK
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JUST IN: Representative Maxwell Frost has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Frost is the first Gen Z member of Congress. https://t.co/o09oowNIUK
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: At 26x Earnings & a 4.16% FCF Yield, $SPGI appears to be one of the better risk/reward long-term opportunities in today’s market
*(NTM) https://t.co/17nSo9cLlK
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RT @DimitryNakhla: At 26x Earnings & a 4.16% FCF Yield, $SPGI appears to be one of the better risk/reward long-term opportunities in today’s market
*(NTM) https://t.co/17nSo9cLlK
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
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BREAKING: Hakeem Jeffries' discharge petition to extend Obamacare subsidies has reached 218 signatures.
Four Republicans who are in vulnerable districts signed on.
This forces a vote on a clean three-year extension. https://t.co/sx6KFRlIXY
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The Few Bets That Matter
$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
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$DUOL is a great company with real potential.
But the stock still trades at ~9x sales - not cheap, while the market has no idea on what growth will look like.
At today's price, $DUOL needs ~25% growth just to justify the multiple - probably even more. There’s no sign nor reasons for near/short-term acceleration and Q4-25 guidance was nowhere close that growth level.
Buying here to beat the market over the next ~12 months is a mistake in my view. You’re betting that FY26 guidance comes in around 30% growth - the only way returns work from here, and there’s no data supporting that today.
That’s the thesis: hope FY26 is guided at ≥30%.
Could it happen? Yes.
Would I bet on it? No.
Are odds in favor? No.
$DUOL isn’t cheap just because its stock is at a lower price than months ago. Thinking that way is a mistake. If you’re buying here, you’d better get your stomach ready for volatility.
You could be right. But the better question is to ask yourself what proves your thesis right.
Right now? Nothing.
👇
https://t.co/STgkogyAQn
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