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EndGame Macro
The Unemployment Signal That Rarely Lies
This chart is basically a reality check on where we are in the labor cycle. The blue line isn’t the unemployment rate itself, it’s the change in unemployment compared with 30 months ago. When it’s below zero, unemployment is lower than it was 2½ years earlier, which is what expansions look like. When it moves above zero, unemployment is higher than it was back then, a sign the labor market has shifted from tightening to loosening. The gray bars mark official recessions.
That’s why this line tends to cluster around downturns. Recessions aren’t about one bad month, they’re about unemployment rising and continuing to rise. A 30 month comparison strips out month to month noise and captures those sustained turns. When this measure flips positive, it’s usually telling you the labor regime has changed, even if the surface level data still looks calm.
Where we are on the chart right now
As of November 2025, unemployment is 4.6%, and the 30 month change is roughly +1 percentage point. This marks a clear shift away from expansion. Expansion is about momentum improving; this tells you that momentum has turned. The labor market is no longer tightening, it’s easing enough that a multi year comparison can’t hide it, even if the fallout hasn’t fully arrived yet.
Now layer in the broader backdrop. The Fed has already cut rates three times to 3.50–3.75%. A large refinancing wall is approaching, with roughly $9–10T in government debt and $1.5–1.8T in commercial real estate maturing. Delinquencies are elevated across autos, credit cards, and student loans. Office vacancy remains near record highs. Bankruptcies and job cuts are rising. Initial claims are drifting higher.
This doesn’t describe an economy entering a new expansion; it describes one running out of room.
My Read
I put the odds of a recession at about 70%, if we’re not already in one. That reflects a labor market that’s shifted from tightening to loosening while credit stress is already visible. The path out is narrow because jobs must stabilize fast, rate cuts need to ease refinancing pressure, and credit stress can’t keep spreading. Historically, that’s hard to pull off once labor softens and financial strain is visible.
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The Unemployment Signal That Rarely Lies
This chart is basically a reality check on where we are in the labor cycle. The blue line isn’t the unemployment rate itself, it’s the change in unemployment compared with 30 months ago. When it’s below zero, unemployment is lower than it was 2½ years earlier, which is what expansions look like. When it moves above zero, unemployment is higher than it was back then, a sign the labor market has shifted from tightening to loosening. The gray bars mark official recessions.
That’s why this line tends to cluster around downturns. Recessions aren’t about one bad month, they’re about unemployment rising and continuing to rise. A 30 month comparison strips out month to month noise and captures those sustained turns. When this measure flips positive, it’s usually telling you the labor regime has changed, even if the surface level data still looks calm.
Where we are on the chart right now
As of November 2025, unemployment is 4.6%, and the 30 month change is roughly +1 percentage point. This marks a clear shift away from expansion. Expansion is about momentum improving; this tells you that momentum has turned. The labor market is no longer tightening, it’s easing enough that a multi year comparison can’t hide it, even if the fallout hasn’t fully arrived yet.
Now layer in the broader backdrop. The Fed has already cut rates three times to 3.50–3.75%. A large refinancing wall is approaching, with roughly $9–10T in government debt and $1.5–1.8T in commercial real estate maturing. Delinquencies are elevated across autos, credit cards, and student loans. Office vacancy remains near record highs. Bankruptcies and job cuts are rising. Initial claims are drifting higher.
This doesn’t describe an economy entering a new expansion; it describes one running out of room.
My Read
I put the odds of a recession at about 70%, if we’re not already in one. That reflects a labor market that’s shifted from tightening to loosening while credit stress is already visible. The path out is narrow because jobs must stabilize fast, rate cuts need to ease refinancing pressure, and credit stress can’t keep spreading. Historically, that’s hard to pull off once labor softens and financial strain is visible.
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The Few Bets That Matter
Beth is one of the most interesting and grounded AI analysts you can follow and listen to in the markets.
Been constantly right for years and very interesting, calm at explaining the markets' shenanigan and the rational behind AI dynamics.
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Beth is one of the most interesting and grounded AI analysts you can follow and listen to in the markets.
Been constantly right for years and very interesting, calm at explaining the markets' shenanigan and the rational behind AI dynamics.
There will be a moment when companies are able to monetize AI to where capex costs are absorbed. In terms of the ability to monetize AI, this is being proven as we speak with OpenAI exhibiting the fastest run rate from $0 to $20 billion in all of tech’s history.
I joined @technology to discuss how the incoming AI monetization wave can help absorb elevated capex costs, and how the AI accelerator market will widen beyond Nvidia $NVDA and benefit other firms such as Broadcom $AVGO. tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @TheShortBear: In terms of how I think about $MELI.
Cheapest multiples since 2008.
There are only 2 instances in the past 20y that exceeded a -40% pullback, 2021 (ultra high multiples) and 2008(global financial crisis and newer less establishes business at the time).
We are 12% from testing that level.
A bit of risk for a multi 100% potential.
That is an easy framework to think about risk.
Second layer is finer busienss metrics, space macro, beta-led pressure...
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RT @TheShortBear: In terms of how I think about $MELI.
Cheapest multiples since 2008.
There are only 2 instances in the past 20y that exceeded a -40% pullback, 2021 (ultra high multiples) and 2008(global financial crisis and newer less establishes business at the time).
We are 12% from testing that level.
A bit of risk for a multi 100% potential.
That is an easy framework to think about risk.
Second layer is finer busienss metrics, space macro, beta-led pressure...
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App Economy Insights
Warner plans to tell shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid (and recommend the Netflix deal).
Perhaps more fascinating is that prediction markets still gave Paramount a 50% chance of closing the acquisition this morning (now 22%).
What are people smoking? https://t.co/QiUu56lJpk
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Warner plans to tell shareholders to reject Paramount’s hostile takeover bid (and recommend the Netflix deal).
Perhaps more fascinating is that prediction markets still gave Paramount a 50% chance of closing the acquisition this morning (now 22%).
What are people smoking? https://t.co/QiUu56lJpk
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Wasteland Capital
Wild that a $3.6bn closed end Real Estate fund $BPRE can immediately crash -40% vs NAV on becoming publicly listed.
Hard assets? More like a meme-coin valuation mirage, sold to the dumb and naive by unscrupulous advisers…
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Wild that a $3.6bn closed end Real Estate fund $BPRE can immediately crash -40% vs NAV on becoming publicly listed.
Hard assets? More like a meme-coin valuation mirage, sold to the dumb and naive by unscrupulous advisers…
Worst fears confirmed for BlueRock investors. 😱
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.
Shareholders approved, not realizing the disaster that awaited them. From $24 to $15 in the blink of a greedy eye. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
boaz weinstein (@boazweinstein) on X
Worst fears confirmed for BlueRock investors. 😱
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.…
BPRE opens at ~$15 vs. $24+ NAV. -38% discount.
Instant ~$1.5B wealth destruction. No more 5% quarterly liquidity at NAV.
Bluerock management chose to entrench themselves in a closed-end fund conversion.…
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memenodes
When you're in crypto for generational wealth but end up in generational debt https://t.co/V5SbrSUZ8A
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When you're in crypto for generational wealth but end up in generational debt https://t.co/V5SbrSUZ8A
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Giuliano
I've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/8M5LF57lwP
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I've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/8M5LF57lwP
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Offshore
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Giuliano
I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
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I might've read The Psychology of Human Misjudgment over ten times by now.
I've listened to it a likely other 5 times at least.
Every single time I revisit it, I'm flabbergasted.
Listening to Munger is like listening to an orchestra of geniuses. https://t.co/RJgMFpMXHi
tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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$MSFT trades at a fairly attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~28x
2026 EPS➡️ $16.24 (+19%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $18.73 (+15%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $22.29 (+19%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS estimates of $22.29
31x | 16.5%
30x | 15.0%
29x | 13.5%
28x | 12.0%
27x | 10.4%
26x | 8.8% https://t.co/CngF3iENPs
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