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EndGame Macro
Miran Isn’t Warning About Inflation He’s Warning About a Policy Mistake
Miran isn’t warning about inflation coming back. He’s warning about the Fed fighting the wrong enemy. His core message is that today’s inflation numbers are still carrying the after effects of 2021–22, not evidence of fresh overheating. Prices are high, yes but they’re mostly stable now, and policy shouldn’t be trying to undo a level shift that already happened.
The shelter tell
Housing is the biggest giveaway. Miran is very clear that shelter inflation is a lagging echo, not a live fire. Market rents rolled over a while ago; the official PCE shelter measure just took longer to catch up and, in his view, has already overshot. That means the next move is down, and probably faster than most people expect. Add in slowing population growth from weaker net migration, and the demand side softens even more. That’s not an inflation setup, that’s a disinflation pipeline that’s already in motion.
The part he really cares about
What stood out most to me was how blunt he was about phantom inflation.
He basically calls out parts of PCE especially portfolio management fees as statistical noise that has nothing to do with real world pricing pressure. Asset prices go up, fee revenue rises mechanically, and the index treats that as inflation even though actual fees are compressing. His point is simple…policy is being kept tighter than necessary because of measurement artifacts, not genuine demand pressure.
Tariffs aren’t the villain
On tariffs, Miran goes out of his way to cool the room. Even if tariffs push prices up, he frames it as a small, one!time level shift something central banks should look through, not react to. More importantly, he doesn’t even think tariffs explain the recent goods inflation. U.S. goods prices don’t stand out versus other countries, and import heavy goods aren’t behaving differently enough to justify the narrative. In his mind, this isn’t an inflation regime change.
The real risk
The clearest signal in the whole speech is that he’s worried about the labor market. He keeps coming back to how quickly employment can weaken once it turns, and how hard that is to reverse. Given policy lags, his argument is basically that if you wait for inflation to look perfect on lagging or distorted measures, you’ll be cutting after the damage is already done.
My View
Miran is quietly staking out a very dovish risk assessment without sounding dovish. He’s saying disinflation is doing the work on its own, inflation risks are overstated by the data we’re fixated on, and the bigger mistake now would be holding policy too tight for too long. Read plainly, this isn’t an inflation warning, it’s a policy error warning, aimed squarely at deflationary and labor market downside that the Fed could still avoid if it moves in time.
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Miran Isn’t Warning About Inflation He’s Warning About a Policy Mistake
Miran isn’t warning about inflation coming back. He’s warning about the Fed fighting the wrong enemy. His core message is that today’s inflation numbers are still carrying the after effects of 2021–22, not evidence of fresh overheating. Prices are high, yes but they’re mostly stable now, and policy shouldn’t be trying to undo a level shift that already happened.
The shelter tell
Housing is the biggest giveaway. Miran is very clear that shelter inflation is a lagging echo, not a live fire. Market rents rolled over a while ago; the official PCE shelter measure just took longer to catch up and, in his view, has already overshot. That means the next move is down, and probably faster than most people expect. Add in slowing population growth from weaker net migration, and the demand side softens even more. That’s not an inflation setup, that’s a disinflation pipeline that’s already in motion.
The part he really cares about
What stood out most to me was how blunt he was about phantom inflation.
He basically calls out parts of PCE especially portfolio management fees as statistical noise that has nothing to do with real world pricing pressure. Asset prices go up, fee revenue rises mechanically, and the index treats that as inflation even though actual fees are compressing. His point is simple…policy is being kept tighter than necessary because of measurement artifacts, not genuine demand pressure.
Tariffs aren’t the villain
On tariffs, Miran goes out of his way to cool the room. Even if tariffs push prices up, he frames it as a small, one!time level shift something central banks should look through, not react to. More importantly, he doesn’t even think tariffs explain the recent goods inflation. U.S. goods prices don’t stand out versus other countries, and import heavy goods aren’t behaving differently enough to justify the narrative. In his mind, this isn’t an inflation regime change.
The real risk
The clearest signal in the whole speech is that he’s worried about the labor market. He keeps coming back to how quickly employment can weaken once it turns, and how hard that is to reverse. Given policy lags, his argument is basically that if you wait for inflation to look perfect on lagging or distorted measures, you’ll be cutting after the damage is already done.
My View
Miran is quietly staking out a very dovish risk assessment without sounding dovish. He’s saying disinflation is doing the work on its own, inflation risks are overstated by the data we’re fixated on, and the bigger mistake now would be holding policy too tight for too long. Read plainly, this isn’t an inflation warning, it’s a policy error warning, aimed squarely at deflationary and labor market downside that the Fed could still avoid if it moves in time.
Speech by Governor Miran on the inflation outlook @ColumbiaIGP: https://t.co/jnodBVx6xK
Watch live: https://t.co/MmMIGmKklO
Learn more about Governor Miran: https://t.co/e2PfCOyRwd tweet
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EndGame Macro
The Real Battle Over South America’s Oil and Minerals
I know I’m on a Landman kick, but I think it offers a good look into what’s really at stake. In a lot of South America, the fight over oil and critical minerals isn’t just about what’s underground, it’s about who controls the ground above it. When armed groups or political factions can claim territory, tax operations, buy off officials, and enforce rules with violence, they become a shadow regulator sitting on top of the state. That changes everything where projects slow down, costs rise, security becomes a permanent line item, and supply turns fragile.
That’s why places like Venezuela matter so much. It’s not only the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but a huge stockpile of minerals that feed modern energy, technology, and defense. And despite all the noise, U.S. companies are still deeply involved across the region…Chevron in Venezuela under license, Exxon and Chevron in Guyana, Apache in Suriname, Exxon and Chevron in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Exxon offshore Brazil, Chevron downstream in Colombia. Put it together and the picture is clear…local disorder becomes global leverage. Oil, copper, lithium they all sit upstream of everything. This isn’t melodrama. It’s the risk premium hiding inside your commodity price.
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The Real Battle Over South America’s Oil and Minerals
I know I’m on a Landman kick, but I think it offers a good look into what’s really at stake. In a lot of South America, the fight over oil and critical minerals isn’t just about what’s underground, it’s about who controls the ground above it. When armed groups or political factions can claim territory, tax operations, buy off officials, and enforce rules with violence, they become a shadow regulator sitting on top of the state. That changes everything where projects slow down, costs rise, security becomes a permanent line item, and supply turns fragile.
That’s why places like Venezuela matter so much. It’s not only the world’s largest proven oil reserves, but a huge stockpile of minerals that feed modern energy, technology, and defense. And despite all the noise, U.S. companies are still deeply involved across the region…Chevron in Venezuela under license, Exxon and Chevron in Guyana, Apache in Suriname, Exxon and Chevron in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, Exxon offshore Brazil, Chevron downstream in Colombia. Put it together and the picture is clear…local disorder becomes global leverage. Oil, copper, lithium they all sit upstream of everything. This isn’t melodrama. It’s the risk premium hiding inside your commodity price.
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EndGame Macro
Keep an eye on this. When calls like this actually turn into real action, it’s usually not about fairness, it’s about timing. Bans on insider or political trading tend to show up late in cycles, when excess, optics, and public anger peak at the same time markets do. It’s the system trying to restore legitimacy after the easy money has already been made. That doesn’t mean prices crash the next day, but historically it’s a sign the environment is maturing, not beginning. When the rules tighten for the people closest to the information, it’s often because the upside has already been largely harvested.
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Keep an eye on this. When calls like this actually turn into real action, it’s usually not about fairness, it’s about timing. Bans on insider or political trading tend to show up late in cycles, when excess, optics, and public anger peak at the same time markets do. It’s the system trying to restore legitimacy after the easy money has already been made. That doesn’t mean prices crash the next day, but historically it’s a sign the environment is maturing, not beginning. When the rules tighten for the people closest to the information, it’s often because the upside has already been largely harvested.
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said: Stock trading by Congress members must end tweet
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unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) on X
BREAKING: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said: Stock trading by Congress members must end
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EndGame Macro
Why the Inflation Story May End in Deflation
The Harvard Pricing Lab chart is pretty straightforward. Goods prices were drifting lower, then the trade war started and the trend flipped. Imported goods jump the most, but what really matters is that domestic goods rise too. That’s the tell. Tariffs don’t stay neatly contained at the border because they leak into costs, supply chains, and pricing behavior across the whole economy.
Why the inflation story doesn’t end there
The first effect is obvious where prices go up. That’s the part everyone talks about. The next effect is quieter and more dangerous. A lot of these goods are price sensitive. People delay purchases, trade down, or walk away. Companies are stuck choosing between passing on costs and losing volume, or eating costs and losing margins. Either way, cash flow tightens. That’s not an inflation spiral, it’s a slow squeeze on liquidity.
Once margins get hit, behavior changes. Hiring slows. Investment gets pulled back. Inventories shrink. Retaliation from trading partners adds another layer of demand loss. What started as an inflationary shock begins to work in reverse, pulling demand and prices lower over time.
What comes next
There’s one more channel people tend to miss. If tariffs actually shrink trade imbalances, they also shrink the foreign dollars that usually get recycled back into U.S. stocks, bonds, and Treasuries. Less recycling means less marginal support for asset prices and funding markets. That’s another tightening force that doesn’t show up in CPI, but absolutely shows up in liquidity.
My View
This doesn’t end with runaway inflation. It ends with growth and liquidity doing the disinflation for you. The risk isn’t prices reaccelerating, it’s the system tightening until demand cracks. Watch margins, layoffs, credit spreads, and funding conditions.
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Why the Inflation Story May End in Deflation
The Harvard Pricing Lab chart is pretty straightforward. Goods prices were drifting lower, then the trade war started and the trend flipped. Imported goods jump the most, but what really matters is that domestic goods rise too. That’s the tell. Tariffs don’t stay neatly contained at the border because they leak into costs, supply chains, and pricing behavior across the whole economy.
Why the inflation story doesn’t end there
The first effect is obvious where prices go up. That’s the part everyone talks about. The next effect is quieter and more dangerous. A lot of these goods are price sensitive. People delay purchases, trade down, or walk away. Companies are stuck choosing between passing on costs and losing volume, or eating costs and losing margins. Either way, cash flow tightens. That’s not an inflation spiral, it’s a slow squeeze on liquidity.
Once margins get hit, behavior changes. Hiring slows. Investment gets pulled back. Inventories shrink. Retaliation from trading partners adds another layer of demand loss. What started as an inflationary shock begins to work in reverse, pulling demand and prices lower over time.
What comes next
There’s one more channel people tend to miss. If tariffs actually shrink trade imbalances, they also shrink the foreign dollars that usually get recycled back into U.S. stocks, bonds, and Treasuries. Less recycling means less marginal support for asset prices and funding markets. That’s another tightening force that doesn’t show up in CPI, but absolutely shows up in liquidity.
My View
This doesn’t end with runaway inflation. It ends with growth and liquidity doing the disinflation for you. The risk isn’t prices reaccelerating, it’s the system tightening until demand cracks. Watch margins, layoffs, credit spreads, and funding conditions.
Harvard’s Pricing Lab data shows that goods prices – which were previously declining – have been on the rise since Trump started his trade war. Even domestic goods prices rose, though by a smaller amount. https://t.co/A2PoivRJcK tweet
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Wasteland Capital
Mag 7 YTD. $GOOG still the reigning wealth creation champion.
$TSLA doing a late-year runner, now back at all time high.
And then there’s $AMZN... 🥴 https://t.co/jHUmv3tVV2
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Mag 7 YTD. $GOOG still the reigning wealth creation champion.
$TSLA doing a late-year runner, now back at all time high.
And then there’s $AMZN... 🥴 https://t.co/jHUmv3tVV2
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