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EndGame Macro
For most of the last decade, platinum went nowhere. It chopped around, failed on rallies, and slowly fell out of favor while gold and silver grabbed the spotlight. This chart shows that long period of frustration and then a clean, decisive break higher. When a market spends years building supply overhead and suddenly clears it, that’s usually not noise. It’s a regime shift, or at least the market admitting something it had been ignoring.
This is happening now because a few forces finally lined up at the same time. Supply has been tight for years, inventories are thin, and production can’t ramp quickly. Industrial demand never really disappeared with hybrids, emissions standards, and new uses like hydrogen kept a floor under it. Then gold ran hard, got expensive, and investors started rotating into what still looked cheap by comparison. Platinum is a smaller, thinner market, so when that rotation hits, the move gets exaggerated fast. This looks like the market repricing scarcity after years of complacency.
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For most of the last decade, platinum went nowhere. It chopped around, failed on rallies, and slowly fell out of favor while gold and silver grabbed the spotlight. This chart shows that long period of frustration and then a clean, decisive break higher. When a market spends years building supply overhead and suddenly clears it, that’s usually not noise. It’s a regime shift, or at least the market admitting something it had been ignoring.
This is happening now because a few forces finally lined up at the same time. Supply has been tight for years, inventories are thin, and production can’t ramp quickly. Industrial demand never really disappeared with hybrids, emissions standards, and new uses like hydrogen kept a floor under it. Then gold ran hard, got expensive, and investors started rotating into what still looked cheap by comparison. Platinum is a smaller, thinner market, so when that rotation hits, the move gets exaggerated fast. This looks like the market repricing scarcity after years of complacency.
JUST IN 🚨: Platinum soars to highest price in more than 14 years 📈📈 tweet
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EndGame Macro
What the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Is Really Telling Us
This Empire State print is basically a good news and bad news split screen. The current side cooled fast where general business conditions swung from +18.7 to -3.9, new orders fell back to 0.0, and shipments slipped to -5.7. That’s not a meltdown, but it is the kind of sudden air pocket that shows up when the marginal buyer steps away and everyone starts managing risk instead of pressing growth.
The more forensic tells are in the plumbing. Unfilled orders sank to -14.9 and delivery times flipped to -5.9, while inventories stayed modestly positive at 4.0. In plain English the pipeline is thinning, things are arriving faster, and there’s a whiff of inventory build. That combo is late cycle DNA, it’s how slowdowns start quietly, not with fireworks.
The recession signals that stick out
If I’m hunting for recessionary fingerprints, I don’t start with the headline index I start with backlogs and pricing power.
•Backlog bleed: Unfilled orders at -14.9 is the future revenue warning. When backlogs drain, production usually follows with a lag.
•Disinflation: Prices paid dropped to 37.6 and prices received to 19.8. That’s a clear cooling signal but it’s still positive, meaning more firms are raising prices than cutting them. This is less inflation, not prices are falling.
•Hours before headcount:
Employment stayed positive at 7.3, but the average workweek cooled to 3.5. That pattern matters. In the real world, managers trim overtime and hours first. Layoffs come later if the demand soft patch doesn’t pass.
And then there’s the curveball…expectations jumped. 6 months ahead general business conditions rose to 35.7, with future new orders at 38.0 and future shipments at 33.3. That’s a pretty loud statement…firms are saying right now is choppy but we think the next act looks better.
Here’s the nuance that keeps me honest…optimism isn’t proof. Sometimes it’s just psychology with people anchoring to the idea that the worst is behind them. But it can also be a real signal that the slowdown is inventory driven and temporary.
My View
This report is not the U.S. economy in one page, but it’s a solid canary for the rate sensitive, goods producing side. And the canary is saying that growth is losing momentum, disinflation is doing its work, and the weak spot is demand pipelines. The Fed’s own summary basically says the same where activity contracted slightly; price increases slowed for a second month; firms got more optimistic.
So in my opinion the economy is still functioning, but the risk for now is a slow bleed and not a sudden break. If these next prints keep showing shrinking backlogs, softer shipments, weakening workweeks, you’re not looking at a soft landing anymore and you’re watching the early mechanics of a broader slowdown.
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What the Empire State Manufacturing Survey Is Really Telling Us
This Empire State print is basically a good news and bad news split screen. The current side cooled fast where general business conditions swung from +18.7 to -3.9, new orders fell back to 0.0, and shipments slipped to -5.7. That’s not a meltdown, but it is the kind of sudden air pocket that shows up when the marginal buyer steps away and everyone starts managing risk instead of pressing growth.
The more forensic tells are in the plumbing. Unfilled orders sank to -14.9 and delivery times flipped to -5.9, while inventories stayed modestly positive at 4.0. In plain English the pipeline is thinning, things are arriving faster, and there’s a whiff of inventory build. That combo is late cycle DNA, it’s how slowdowns start quietly, not with fireworks.
The recession signals that stick out
If I’m hunting for recessionary fingerprints, I don’t start with the headline index I start with backlogs and pricing power.
•Backlog bleed: Unfilled orders at -14.9 is the future revenue warning. When backlogs drain, production usually follows with a lag.
•Disinflation: Prices paid dropped to 37.6 and prices received to 19.8. That’s a clear cooling signal but it’s still positive, meaning more firms are raising prices than cutting them. This is less inflation, not prices are falling.
•Hours before headcount:
Employment stayed positive at 7.3, but the average workweek cooled to 3.5. That pattern matters. In the real world, managers trim overtime and hours first. Layoffs come later if the demand soft patch doesn’t pass.
And then there’s the curveball…expectations jumped. 6 months ahead general business conditions rose to 35.7, with future new orders at 38.0 and future shipments at 33.3. That’s a pretty loud statement…firms are saying right now is choppy but we think the next act looks better.
Here’s the nuance that keeps me honest…optimism isn’t proof. Sometimes it’s just psychology with people anchoring to the idea that the worst is behind them. But it can also be a real signal that the slowdown is inventory driven and temporary.
My View
This report is not the U.S. economy in one page, but it’s a solid canary for the rate sensitive, goods producing side. And the canary is saying that growth is losing momentum, disinflation is doing its work, and the weak spot is demand pipelines. The Fed’s own summary basically says the same where activity contracted slightly; price increases slowed for a second month; firms got more optimistic.
So in my opinion the economy is still functioning, but the risk for now is a slow bleed and not a sudden break. If these next prints keep showing shrinking backlogs, softer shipments, weakening workweeks, you’re not looking at a soft landing anymore and you’re watching the early mechanics of a broader slowdown.
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EndGame Macro
This looks like a demand and utilization story. When corporate budgets tighten, consulting is one of the first areas to get trimmed…strategy work, long transformation projects, anything that isn’t directly tied to near term cash flow. McKinsey hired aggressively coming out of the boom, and now the pipeline isn’t there to justify that headcount. AI probably makes it easier to cut around the edges, especially in research and support roles, but if AI were the real driver you’d expect strong demand with fewer people needed. A slow, multi quarter reduction reads more like clients pulling back, partners protecting margins, and the firm resizing to a world where companies are choosing caution over ambition.
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This looks like a demand and utilization story. When corporate budgets tighten, consulting is one of the first areas to get trimmed…strategy work, long transformation projects, anything that isn’t directly tied to near term cash flow. McKinsey hired aggressively coming out of the boom, and now the pipeline isn’t there to justify that headcount. AI probably makes it easier to cut around the edges, especially in research and support roles, but if AI were the real driver you’d expect strong demand with fewer people needed. A slow, multi quarter reduction reads more like clients pulling back, partners protecting margins, and the firm resizing to a world where companies are choosing caution over ambition.
McKinsey to reportedly cut thousands of jobs over the next 18-24 months
#MacroEdge tweet
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MacroEdge (@MacroEdgeRes) on X
McKinsey to reportedly cut thousands of jobs over the next 18-24 months
#MacroEdge
#MacroEdge
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EndGame Macro
Builders Are Cutting Prices for a Reason
Builder sentiment ticked up to 39 in December, but that number matters less than where it sits at well below the 50 breakeven, and it never crossed 50 once in all of 2025. Historically, that’s not a soft patch, it’s builders telling you conditions feel meaningfully restrictive. Current sales are weak (42), buyer traffic is outright depressed (26), and the only thing holding up is expectations six months out (52), which says more about hope tied to easier policy than demand that’s already here.
What really jumps out is behavior. Two thirds of builders are offering incentives, 40% are cutting prices, and they’re doing it back to back months at levels last seen during crisis periods. That’s inventory needing to move in an affordability constrained market. Builders aren’t choosing to discount; they’re being forced to.
Why this looks recessionary, not just cyclical
This is a classic tight money housing setup. Mortgage rates stayed high long enough to drain demand, while construction costs, labor, and regulatory friction never came back down. Builders are squeezed from both sides. Even with the Fed easing late in the year, financing conditions didn’t prove loose enough to restart traffic, and rising resale inventory is now competing directly with new builds. That combination usually shows up late cycle, not at a fresh expansion point.
The most deflationary signal here is buyer traffic stuck in the mid 20s. Historically, traffic turns first. Prices and starts follow later. Builders can stay solvent by cutting prices and offering incentives for a while, but that behavior tends to foreshadow slower starts, weaker construction employment, and softer downstream demand. The market is functioning, but it’s defensive.
My View
The NAHB index is telling you the floor is being tested by affordability, not supply. Builders see relief only if rates fall enough to revive traffic and so far, that hasn’t happened. When sentiment sits this low for this long, history says housing stops being a growth engine and starts acting like a drag. That’s a quietly recessionary signal, even if the surface data still looks okay.
tweet
Builders Are Cutting Prices for a Reason
Builder sentiment ticked up to 39 in December, but that number matters less than where it sits at well below the 50 breakeven, and it never crossed 50 once in all of 2025. Historically, that’s not a soft patch, it’s builders telling you conditions feel meaningfully restrictive. Current sales are weak (42), buyer traffic is outright depressed (26), and the only thing holding up is expectations six months out (52), which says more about hope tied to easier policy than demand that’s already here.
What really jumps out is behavior. Two thirds of builders are offering incentives, 40% are cutting prices, and they’re doing it back to back months at levels last seen during crisis periods. That’s inventory needing to move in an affordability constrained market. Builders aren’t choosing to discount; they’re being forced to.
Why this looks recessionary, not just cyclical
This is a classic tight money housing setup. Mortgage rates stayed high long enough to drain demand, while construction costs, labor, and regulatory friction never came back down. Builders are squeezed from both sides. Even with the Fed easing late in the year, financing conditions didn’t prove loose enough to restart traffic, and rising resale inventory is now competing directly with new builds. That combination usually shows up late cycle, not at a fresh expansion point.
The most deflationary signal here is buyer traffic stuck in the mid 20s. Historically, traffic turns first. Prices and starts follow later. Builders can stay solvent by cutting prices and offering incentives for a while, but that behavior tends to foreshadow slower starts, weaker construction employment, and softer downstream demand. The market is functioning, but it’s defensive.
My View
The NAHB index is telling you the floor is being tested by affordability, not supply. Builders see relief only if rates fall enough to revive traffic and so far, that hasn’t happened. When sentiment sits this low for this long, history says housing stops being a growth engine and starts acting like a drag. That’s a quietly recessionary signal, even if the surface data still looks okay.
Home builder confidence ticked up one point in December in the NAHB/@WellsFargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The 39 reading is the highest in six months, but still underwater. https://t.co/PKv2zYV18W #realestate #housing https://t.co/lcUyOfi2Ig tweet
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Wasteland Capital
$AEO +155% now at $26.74, new 52 week high.
Consensus Feb-27 YE EPS now at $1.63 (I’m at $1.80) as Aerie lingerie sales exploding higher.
Trust the DD. https://t.co/feUStn6wNg
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$AEO +155% now at $26.74, new 52 week high.
Consensus Feb-27 YE EPS now at $1.63 (I’m at $1.80) as Aerie lingerie sales exploding higher.
Trust the DD. https://t.co/feUStn6wNg
Sydney Sweeney doing the fall campaign at $AEO.
Consensus EPS next year is $1.23 (Feb-27), which implies 8.5x P/E at the $10.50 price. Stock’s beaten down due to poor (-3%) Q1 SSS & tariff-induced margin pressure.
I think they can do $1.60 in EPS, which would be $24 @ 15x P/E. https://t.co/SiNGjPetF8 tweet
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App Economy Insights
$ADBE Adobe is valued at ~14x FCF.
• ARR growing 12% Y/Y.
• Subscription-based business.
• 30%+ net margin still expanding.
• Incorporating AI tools everywhere.
Value play or value trap? https://t.co/c32E9IBHdF
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$ADBE Adobe is valued at ~14x FCF.
• ARR growing 12% Y/Y.
• Subscription-based business.
• 30%+ net margin still expanding.
• Incorporating AI tools everywhere.
Value play or value trap? https://t.co/c32E9IBHdF
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