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EndGame Macro
When the Math Stops Working, Projects Stop
This isn’t a story about construction being strong or weak. It’s a story about where risk is still allowed to exist. Commercial real estate spending rolled over first and pretty cleanly because it’s the most sensitive to higher rates, refinancing risk, and tighter underwriting. Once the math stopped working, projects quietly stopped getting funded. That’s not panic; that’s discipline returning.
Manufacturing construction looks very different because it’s been living in a protected lane. A lot of that spending is policy driven, subsidized, or tied to long term strategic commitments like reshoring, CHIPS, energy, and defense. Those projects don’t shut down just because rates are high, they were approved for reasons beyond near term ROI.
My View
This is a tight money economy wearing a calm mask. The system is still functioning, but fewer big risks are being taken. You can see it in the skyline with commercial cranes down sharply, lenders and capital partners clearly unwilling to believe the old growth assumptions anymore. Public and institutional spending is stepping in to fill part of the gap, which keeps activity from falling off a cliff but it rarely creates a broad, self reinforcing growth cycle.
Manufacturing can stay elevated for a while even as CRE grinds lower, but if manufacturing construction is now topping too, forward momentum slows. Less backfill, fewer second order jobs, and more pressure on local economies that depended on constant build cycles. Late cycle doesn’t look dramatic, it looks like this where the skyline still moves, but it’s clearly being choosier.
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When the Math Stops Working, Projects Stop
This isn’t a story about construction being strong or weak. It’s a story about where risk is still allowed to exist. Commercial real estate spending rolled over first and pretty cleanly because it’s the most sensitive to higher rates, refinancing risk, and tighter underwriting. Once the math stopped working, projects quietly stopped getting funded. That’s not panic; that’s discipline returning.
Manufacturing construction looks very different because it’s been living in a protected lane. A lot of that spending is policy driven, subsidized, or tied to long term strategic commitments like reshoring, CHIPS, energy, and defense. Those projects don’t shut down just because rates are high, they were approved for reasons beyond near term ROI.
My View
This is a tight money economy wearing a calm mask. The system is still functioning, but fewer big risks are being taken. You can see it in the skyline with commercial cranes down sharply, lenders and capital partners clearly unwilling to believe the old growth assumptions anymore. Public and institutional spending is stepping in to fill part of the gap, which keeps activity from falling off a cliff but it rarely creates a broad, self reinforcing growth cycle.
Manufacturing can stay elevated for a while even as CRE grinds lower, but if manufacturing construction is now topping too, forward momentum slows. Less backfill, fewer second order jobs, and more pressure on local economies that depended on constant build cycles. Late cycle doesn’t look dramatic, it looks like this where the skyline still moves, but it’s clearly being choosier.
Manufacturing & CRE Construction spend peaked over a year ago https://t.co/Y85IYVCPLl tweet
Offshore
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memenodes
Me holding my shitcoins while the rest of the market is in shambles https://t.co/W6Sjgyz96W
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Me holding my shitcoins while the rest of the market is in shambles https://t.co/W6Sjgyz96W
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AkhenOsiris
$FLUT $DKNG $SRAD $GENI
Sports betting hold for November is in excess of 11% in reporting states; if that trend holds, it will be one of the highest figures in US history. Handle continues to be robust despite the rise of prediction markets.
H/T @DustinGouker
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$FLUT $DKNG $SRAD $GENI
Sports betting hold for November is in excess of 11% in reporting states; if that trend holds, it will be one of the highest figures in US history. Handle continues to be robust despite the rise of prediction markets.
H/T @DustinGouker
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AkhenOsiris
WSJ:
Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, though many haven’t yet seen meaningful returns on their investments.
After a year in which trillions of dollars worth of AI investments buoyed global markets and the economy, 68% of CEOs plan to spend even more on AI in 2026, according to an annual survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs from advisory firm Teneo.
Less than half of current AI projects had generated more in returns than they had cost, respondents said. They reported the most success using AI in marketing and customer service and challenges using it in higher-risk areas such as security, legal and human resources.
Teneo also surveyed about 400 institutional investors, of which 53% expect that AI initiatives would begin to deliver returns on investments within six months. That compares to the 84% of CEOs of large companies—those with revenue of $10 billion or more—who believe it will take more than six months.
Surprisingly, 67% of CEOs believe AI will increase their entry-level head count, while 58% believe AI will increase senior leadership head count.
The survey was conducted from mid-October to mid-November, and CEOs surveyed were from public companies with revenue of $1 billion or more.
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WSJ:
Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, though many haven’t yet seen meaningful returns on their investments.
After a year in which trillions of dollars worth of AI investments buoyed global markets and the economy, 68% of CEOs plan to spend even more on AI in 2026, according to an annual survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs from advisory firm Teneo.
Less than half of current AI projects had generated more in returns than they had cost, respondents said. They reported the most success using AI in marketing and customer service and challenges using it in higher-risk areas such as security, legal and human resources.
Teneo also surveyed about 400 institutional investors, of which 53% expect that AI initiatives would begin to deliver returns on investments within six months. That compares to the 84% of CEOs of large companies—those with revenue of $10 billion or more—who believe it will take more than six months.
Surprisingly, 67% of CEOs believe AI will increase their entry-level head count, while 58% believe AI will increase senior leadership head count.
The survey was conducted from mid-October to mid-November, and CEOs surveyed were from public companies with revenue of $1 billion or more.
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AkhenOsiris
$MSFT AI CEO Suleyman in Bloomberg Interview:
Q: Are the first uses of superintelligence going to be in the medical field?
A: I think so. This is probably the most exciting application of superintelligence. We now have systems that can diagnose any rare condition found in the literature, significantly better than human performance, more cheaply, with fewer tests and with higher accuracy. We are putting it through independent peer review at the moment and soon there’ll be clinical trials. So this is very, very, very exciting.
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$MSFT AI CEO Suleyman in Bloomberg Interview:
Q: Are the first uses of superintelligence going to be in the medical field?
A: I think so. This is probably the most exciting application of superintelligence. We now have systems that can diagnose any rare condition found in the literature, significantly better than human performance, more cheaply, with fewer tests and with higher accuracy. We are putting it through independent peer review at the moment and soon there’ll be clinical trials. So this is very, very, very exciting.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Yes. Yes it is. I’ll let Lacy Hunt break it down… https://t.co/kRCd3qtEO8
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Yes. Yes it is. I’ll let Lacy Hunt break it down… https://t.co/kRCd3qtEO8
*TRUMP: INFLATION 'TOTALLY NEUTRALIZED,' YOU DON'T WANT DEFLATION
*TRUMP: DELFATION IS IN MANY WAYS WORSE THAN INFLATION tweet
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memenodes
“So you made a good amount using leverage ?”
“Yes, Dave”
“And you lost everything in 10/10 liquidation black swan, because you slept on your 2x position?”
“That’s correct, Dave” https://t.co/CS1t1Rs2HU
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“So you made a good amount using leverage ?”
“Yes, Dave”
“And you lost everything in 10/10 liquidation black swan, because you slept on your 2x position?”
“That’s correct, Dave” https://t.co/CS1t1Rs2HU
Inviting all the fudders to dinner. https://t.co/RgqCDQOUEq tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Why Capital Is Finding a Home in Emerging Markets
This isn’t about a sudden love affair with emerging markets. It’s about where capital can still do its job. Banks have pulled back because of higher rates, tighter rules, and a few ugly credit blowups have made them cautious, especially in places that don’t fit neatly into a balance sheet box. In a lot of emerging economies, that leaves real businesses and infrastructure projects with fewer options. Private credit steps in because it can price the risk, structure the deal, and move when banks won’t.
Why it’s happening now
For investors, it’s the mix of yield, protection, and control that matters. EM private credit offers returns that are hard to find in developed markets without taking full equity risk, and the deals often come with stronger covenants and collateral than what’s become common in U.S. credit. In a tight money world, certainty of cash flow beats promises of growth. This is capital adapting to scarcity. When traditional funding dries up, private credit doesn’t chase the market. It becomes the market.
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Why Capital Is Finding a Home in Emerging Markets
This isn’t about a sudden love affair with emerging markets. It’s about where capital can still do its job. Banks have pulled back because of higher rates, tighter rules, and a few ugly credit blowups have made them cautious, especially in places that don’t fit neatly into a balance sheet box. In a lot of emerging economies, that leaves real businesses and infrastructure projects with fewer options. Private credit steps in because it can price the risk, structure the deal, and move when banks won’t.
Why it’s happening now
For investors, it’s the mix of yield, protection, and control that matters. EM private credit offers returns that are hard to find in developed markets without taking full equity risk, and the deals often come with stronger covenants and collateral than what’s become common in U.S. credit. In a tight money world, certainty of cash flow beats promises of growth. This is capital adapting to scarcity. When traditional funding dries up, private credit doesn’t chase the market. It becomes the market.
Private Credit Lending in Emerging Markets jumps to an all-time high of $18 Billion 🚨🚨 https://t.co/41RjBYlu99 tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
For most of the last decade, platinum went nowhere. It chopped around, failed on rallies, and slowly fell out of favor while gold and silver grabbed the spotlight. This chart shows that long period of frustration and then a clean, decisive break higher. When a market spends years building supply overhead and suddenly clears it, that’s usually not noise. It’s a regime shift, or at least the market admitting something it had been ignoring.
This is happening now because a few forces finally lined up at the same time. Supply has been tight for years, inventories are thin, and production can’t ramp quickly. Industrial demand never really disappeared with hybrids, emissions standards, and new uses like hydrogen kept a floor under it. Then gold ran hard, got expensive, and investors started rotating into what still looked cheap by comparison. Platinum is a smaller, thinner market, so when that rotation hits, the move gets exaggerated fast. This looks like the market repricing scarcity after years of complacency.
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For most of the last decade, platinum went nowhere. It chopped around, failed on rallies, and slowly fell out of favor while gold and silver grabbed the spotlight. This chart shows that long period of frustration and then a clean, decisive break higher. When a market spends years building supply overhead and suddenly clears it, that’s usually not noise. It’s a regime shift, or at least the market admitting something it had been ignoring.
This is happening now because a few forces finally lined up at the same time. Supply has been tight for years, inventories are thin, and production can’t ramp quickly. Industrial demand never really disappeared with hybrids, emissions standards, and new uses like hydrogen kept a floor under it. Then gold ran hard, got expensive, and investors started rotating into what still looked cheap by comparison. Platinum is a smaller, thinner market, so when that rotation hits, the move gets exaggerated fast. This looks like the market repricing scarcity after years of complacency.
JUST IN 🚨: Platinum soars to highest price in more than 14 years 📈📈 tweet