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The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: Find broken stocks. Not broken companies.
$LULU https://t.co/XYhgOyRiir
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RT @WealthyReadings: Find broken stocks. Not broken companies.
$LULU https://t.co/XYhgOyRiir
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The Few Bets That Matter
$ORCL pushed back completion of one of its datacenters for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 because of labor & material shortages.
And management confirmed this delay doesn’t affect their contractual commitments.
The market is reading this new as: “OpenAI is defaulting.”
You need a strong stomach and strong conviction in the markets lately.
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$ORCL pushed back completion of one of its datacenters for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 because of labor & material shortages.
And management confirmed this delay doesn’t affect their contractual commitments.
The market is reading this new as: “OpenAI is defaulting.”
You need a strong stomach and strong conviction in the markets lately.
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Clark Square Capital
AppInvestor put together a great little dashboard to track $GRVY. Awesome stuff.
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AppInvestor put together a great little dashboard to track $GRVY. Awesome stuff.
@ClarkSquareCap No better way to respond to this but by giving you the link to the $GRVY dashboard I've just setup / refreshed for Gravity ;) (Works better on desktop than mobile because using a shit embed tool for now)
Mobile data, news and financial data
https://t.co/GrJg4zR0wt tweet
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App Economy Insights
RT @EconomyApp: Wealthfront is going public this week.
Ticker: $WLTH
Valuation: ~$2B
Funded Clients: 1.3M
Platform Assets: $88B
📊 How They Make Money: ~75% of revenue comes from cash management (not advisory fees). This makes the model highly sensitive to interest rates.
Would you buy this over $HOOD or $SOFI?
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RT @EconomyApp: Wealthfront is going public this week.
Ticker: $WLTH
Valuation: ~$2B
Funded Clients: 1.3M
Platform Assets: $88B
📊 How They Make Money: ~75% of revenue comes from cash management (not advisory fees). This makes the model highly sensitive to interest rates.
Would you buy this over $HOOD or $SOFI?
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EndGame Macro
The 10 Year Isn’t Buying the Fed’s Easing Story
The Fed is easing at the front end, and you can see that in short term rates. But the 10 year isn’t playing along. It’s staying high and even pulling away from Fed Funds which is why this spread is as wide as it’s been in years. That’s the bond market quietly reminding everyone who sets the price of long term money.
The Fed can cut, but it can’t force investors to lend long on the cheap.
Why the 10 Year Is Pushing Back
Part of this is straightforward. The economy is cooling. Layoffs are creeping up, hiring is less confident, and housing is rolling over first in the places that always turn early. That’s enough for the Fed to start cutting.
But the 10 year is focused on a different problem. There’s a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced over the next couple of years. Treasury supply is heavy, deficits aren’t going away, and the global backdrop is noisier with more tariffs, more geopolitics, more uncertainty. Even if inflation ends up cooling, the fear of inflation sticks around longer than the reality.
So investors are basically saying “Cut if you want but if I’m lending for ten years in this environment, I still want to be paid.” That’s term premium coming back.
What This Means And Where The Fed Gets Boxed In
This kind of widening doesn’t mean the economy is about to fall apart tomorrow. But it does mean relief doesn’t travel very far. Credit cards might get a little cheaper, but mortgages and long term financing don’t magically follow if the 10 year stays elevated.
Historically, this shows up late in the cycle. Growth is slowing, stress is building, and policy is reacting rather than leading. Cuts work, just unevenly.
If unemployment keeps rising and the economy keeps softening, the 10 year will eventually come down on its own as growth fears take over. If it doesn’t, the Fed faces a tougher choice that they either accept tighter financial conditions, or step in more directly to compress long term rates. That’s where talk of QE starts to matter and not because inflation is low, but because the transmission from policy to the real economy is breaking down.
The risk isn’t that rate cuts fail. It’s that they don’t reach the places that matter until the slowdown has already done some damage.
tweet
The 10 Year Isn’t Buying the Fed’s Easing Story
The Fed is easing at the front end, and you can see that in short term rates. But the 10 year isn’t playing along. It’s staying high and even pulling away from Fed Funds which is why this spread is as wide as it’s been in years. That’s the bond market quietly reminding everyone who sets the price of long term money.
The Fed can cut, but it can’t force investors to lend long on the cheap.
Why the 10 Year Is Pushing Back
Part of this is straightforward. The economy is cooling. Layoffs are creeping up, hiring is less confident, and housing is rolling over first in the places that always turn early. That’s enough for the Fed to start cutting.
But the 10 year is focused on a different problem. There’s a lot of debt that needs to be refinanced over the next couple of years. Treasury supply is heavy, deficits aren’t going away, and the global backdrop is noisier with more tariffs, more geopolitics, more uncertainty. Even if inflation ends up cooling, the fear of inflation sticks around longer than the reality.
So investors are basically saying “Cut if you want but if I’m lending for ten years in this environment, I still want to be paid.” That’s term premium coming back.
What This Means And Where The Fed Gets Boxed In
This kind of widening doesn’t mean the economy is about to fall apart tomorrow. But it does mean relief doesn’t travel very far. Credit cards might get a little cheaper, but mortgages and long term financing don’t magically follow if the 10 year stays elevated.
Historically, this shows up late in the cycle. Growth is slowing, stress is building, and policy is reacting rather than leading. Cuts work, just unevenly.
If unemployment keeps rising and the economy keeps softening, the 10 year will eventually come down on its own as growth fears take over. If it doesn’t, the Fed faces a tougher choice that they either accept tighter financial conditions, or step in more directly to compress long term rates. That’s where talk of QE starts to matter and not because inflation is low, but because the transmission from policy to the real economy is breaking down.
The risk isn’t that rate cuts fail. It’s that they don’t reach the places that matter until the slowdown has already done some damage.
10yr yield hits the highest spread over Fed Funds in 3yrs
The number of people on Fox Business, CNBC, CNN, etc that claim FFR cuts will benefit average Americans thru lower CC rates, mortgage rates, etc is astounding
The 10yr is where those are priced & the spread is WIDENING https://t.co/Bb24XqzUzw tweet
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EndGame Macro
Watch this….
Now roll the tape forward into 2026 and assume unemployment keeps inching higher. That alone starts to matter. The quality of borrowers banks want to lend to keeps slipping, credit standards tighten, and lending gets more selective even if rates are coming down.
Now think about what that does to people’s heads. Even folks making good money start feeling uneasy about job security. If John sees a couple of coworkers get laid off, is he really going to sign up for a 30 year mortgage knowing he could be next? Probably not. Then look at retirees. If home prices are sliding and they’re sitting on a lot of equity, and the stock market corrects at the same time, the instinct shifts to protecting capital like downsizing, selling, getting liquid. And let’s be honest when the 10 year yield and mortgage rates are falling, that’s not a sign housing is fixed. It’s the bond market telling you growth is slowing and risk is rising. That’s how you can end up with home prices falling even as rates drop. It’s not about affordability. It’s about psychology. @patrickbetdavid @m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth
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Watch this….
Now roll the tape forward into 2026 and assume unemployment keeps inching higher. That alone starts to matter. The quality of borrowers banks want to lend to keeps slipping, credit standards tighten, and lending gets more selective even if rates are coming down.
Now think about what that does to people’s heads. Even folks making good money start feeling uneasy about job security. If John sees a couple of coworkers get laid off, is he really going to sign up for a 30 year mortgage knowing he could be next? Probably not. Then look at retirees. If home prices are sliding and they’re sitting on a lot of equity, and the stock market corrects at the same time, the instinct shifts to protecting capital like downsizing, selling, getting liquid. And let’s be honest when the 10 year yield and mortgage rates are falling, that’s not a sign housing is fixed. It’s the bond market telling you growth is slowing and risk is rising. That’s how you can end up with home prices falling even as rates drop. It’s not about affordability. It’s about psychology. @patrickbetdavid @m3_melody @DiMartinoBooth
“Pricing About To Go DOWN" - Housing Prices COLLAPSE As Delistings SKYROCKET Nationwide https://t.co/p5Sr0E6qMK tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Representative Dan Goldman has proposed a bill that would put a 20% tax on loans secured by capital assets for high-income individuals.
It's called the ROBINHOOD Act. https://t.co/pa3yUaCC0F
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Representative Dan Goldman has proposed a bill that would put a 20% tax on loans secured by capital assets for high-income individuals.
It's called the ROBINHOOD Act. https://t.co/pa3yUaCC0F
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