EndGame Macro
RT @TOzgokmen: Decades of ZIRP & QE had no influence on Japan economy because these were banking matters (follow Richard Koo's explanations on this on utube), while households & corporations followed their own instinct: they paid off debt, saved and produced, enhancing Japan exports and economy. In other words, while BoJ was trying to recover debt-based system, people of Japan need subscribed to that again post 1989.
Now, tariffs means Japan's exports are collapsing. There are obstacles everywhere. China is producing competitive cars. Hence real-deal economy is being hit ๐ฏ
The result is loss of Yen's value, hectic movements by BoJ to deal with potential inflation as well as economic collapse. Sell this, buy this, as pillars of Japan economy are hit, in an aging population.
People just looking at financial markets curves ๐๐will NEVER see this, as they never understood anything.
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RT @TOzgokmen: Decades of ZIRP & QE had no influence on Japan economy because these were banking matters (follow Richard Koo's explanations on this on utube), while households & corporations followed their own instinct: they paid off debt, saved and produced, enhancing Japan exports and economy. In other words, while BoJ was trying to recover debt-based system, people of Japan need subscribed to that again post 1989.
Now, tariffs means Japan's exports are collapsing. There are obstacles everywhere. China is producing competitive cars. Hence real-deal economy is being hit ๐ฏ
The result is loss of Yen's value, hectic movements by BoJ to deal with potential inflation as well as economic collapse. Sell this, buy this, as pillars of Japan economy are hit, in an aging population.
People just looking at financial markets curves ๐๐will NEVER see this, as they never understood anything.
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Quiver Quantitative
If someone bought and held $10,000 of Carvana stock when this was posted, they would have $1 million today.
$CVNA has now risen 10,663% since this post.
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If someone bought and held $10,000 of Carvana stock when this was posted, they would have $1 million today.
$CVNA has now risen 10,663% since this post.
Carvana going bankrupt? Insiders don't think so
They've bought more than $663 million in $CVNA shares over the past year https://t.co/xRUSoJPUQh tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Julie Johnson just filed 63 new stock trades.
All sales.
She sold up to $945K of stock in total.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/59P33zG36N
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JUST IN: Representative Julie Johnson just filed 63 new stock trades.
All sales.
She sold up to $945K of stock in total.
Full trade list up on Quiver. https://t.co/59P33zG36N
tweet
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EndGame Macro
When Borrowing Now Stops Being Cheap Later
The blue bars are the total global debt in dollars, and it just keeps grinding higher to new records. The red line is the global debt as a share of world GDP. That ratio exploded during COVID when governments borrowed aggressively and GDP collapsed, then eased as economies reopened and inflation boosted nominal growth.
At a glance, that easing makes things look more stable than they really are. The ratio going sideways doesnโt mean the system healed. It mostly means the denominator caught up for a while.
Why the picture is more fragile than it looks
The real shift isnโt the level of debt, itโs the cost of carrying it. When rates were near zero, you could pile on debt without immediate consequences. Now that rates are structurally higher, the pressure shows up in budgets, not charts. Interest expense starts eating fiscal space, and new borrowing increasingly goes toward servicing old borrowing rather than doing anything productive.
Thereโs also a political reality baked into this. Aging populations, healthcare, defense, supply chain reshoring, energy securityโฆnone of that is optional, and none of it is cheap. Democracies donโt like upfront pain, so deficits become permanent. Borrowing isnโt a temporary bridge anymore; itโs the default setting.
If you zoom out further the world is less stable and less efficient than it was a decade ago. Globalization isnโt gone, but itโs messier. Redundancy replaces efficiency. Geopolitics replaces pure economics. That all costs money, and governments are the ones footing the bill.
The takeaway
So this chart shows that every shock gets handled the same wayโฆborrow first, worry later and the cost of that keeps climbing.
The risk isnโt the size of the debt by itself. Itโs that the old assumptions behind it, that cheap money, plenty of time, and steady growth are starting to break down.
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When Borrowing Now Stops Being Cheap Later
The blue bars are the total global debt in dollars, and it just keeps grinding higher to new records. The red line is the global debt as a share of world GDP. That ratio exploded during COVID when governments borrowed aggressively and GDP collapsed, then eased as economies reopened and inflation boosted nominal growth.
At a glance, that easing makes things look more stable than they really are. The ratio going sideways doesnโt mean the system healed. It mostly means the denominator caught up for a while.
Why the picture is more fragile than it looks
The real shift isnโt the level of debt, itโs the cost of carrying it. When rates were near zero, you could pile on debt without immediate consequences. Now that rates are structurally higher, the pressure shows up in budgets, not charts. Interest expense starts eating fiscal space, and new borrowing increasingly goes toward servicing old borrowing rather than doing anything productive.
Thereโs also a political reality baked into this. Aging populations, healthcare, defense, supply chain reshoring, energy securityโฆnone of that is optional, and none of it is cheap. Democracies donโt like upfront pain, so deficits become permanent. Borrowing isnโt a temporary bridge anymore; itโs the default setting.
If you zoom out further the world is less stable and less efficient than it was a decade ago. Globalization isnโt gone, but itโs messier. Redundancy replaces efficiency. Geopolitics replaces pure economics. That all costs money, and governments are the ones footing the bill.
The takeaway
So this chart shows that every shock gets handled the same wayโฆborrow first, worry later and the cost of that keeps climbing.
The risk isnโt the size of the debt by itself. Itโs that the old assumptions behind it, that cheap money, plenty of time, and steady growth are starting to break down.
"The Institute of International Finance estimates that global sovereign debt surged by $8 trillion in the third quarter, up more than 8% from the previous quarter. The US and China accounted for almost a third of the increase."
@johnauthers https://t.co/23smKIXCkB tweet
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memenodes
Do you keep your money onchain, on a CEX, or in a bank?
Crypto traders: https://t.co/P2BcvCAuvW
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Do you keep your money onchain, on a CEX, or in a bank?
Crypto traders: https://t.co/P2BcvCAuvW
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App Economy Insights
$ORCL Oracle just crashed 15% in 2 days.
Itโs down over 40% from its September peak.
The backlog is wild ($523B).
But the cash burn is even wilder.
You need to see their cash flow chart. ๐
https://t.co/VL2r6J50Cv
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$ORCL Oracle just crashed 15% in 2 days.
Itโs down over 40% from its September peak.
The backlog is wild ($523B).
But the cash burn is even wilder.
You need to see their cash flow chart. ๐
https://t.co/VL2r6J50Cv
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Quartr
"It pissed us off when somebody was wearing our high-tech products in the street with jeans. It really bugged us. It's like buying a Porsche and going shopping."
Olivier Bernhard knew the highs of a world-class triathlon career, and the strain of its closing years.
As injuries piled up, he began to wonder if there was room for a new kind of running sensation.
A prototype made from cut-up garden hose became CloudTec, the innovation behind "running on clouds."
What began in the Swiss Alps with a running shoe became a global sportswear brand.
Edge #70: On.
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"It pissed us off when somebody was wearing our high-tech products in the street with jeans. It really bugged us. It's like buying a Porsche and going shopping."
Olivier Bernhard knew the highs of a world-class triathlon career, and the strain of its closing years.
As injuries piled up, he began to wonder if there was room for a new kind of running sensation.
A prototype made from cut-up garden hose became CloudTec, the innovation behind "running on clouds."
What began in the Swiss Alps with a running shoe became a global sportswear brand.
Edge #70: On.
tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
โAt the same time, Iโve found it important to balance those โbuildersโ with the cash cows โ $MA, $V, $SPGI, $FICO etc โ businesses with exceptional FCF margins, durable moats, and minimal capital requirements.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฌ.โ
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โAt the same time, Iโve found it important to balance those โbuildersโ with the cash cows โ $MA, $V, $SPGI, $FICO etc โ businesses with exceptional FCF margins, durable moats, and minimal capital requirements.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฌ.โ
There are several respected investors who have long stayed away from companies like $GOOG, $AMZN, $MSFT & $META โ skeptical of the returns on the enormous capital expenditures tied to cloud and AI infrastructure.
I understand the concern, but I donโt think thatโs the right conclusion.
These businesses are building the digital backbone of the next decade, and exposure to them still remains beneficial.
At the same time, Iโve found it important to balance those โbuildersโ with the cash cows โ $MA, $V, $SPGI, $FICO etc โ businesses with exceptional FCF margins, durable moats, and minimal capital requirements.
๐๐ก๐๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ๐จ๐ฐ๐ฌ ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ซ๐ญ๐๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐จ ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐ญ๐ข๐๐ข๐ฉ๐๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐ฅ๐จ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ข๐ฅ๐๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ก๐ข๐ฅ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฆ๐๐ข๐ง๐ข๐ง๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ข๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ฉ๐๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐จ๐จ๐ฅ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐ข๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ฌ๐ก๐ข๐๐ญ๐ฌ.
The builders power the future; the cash cows become even more efficient by leveraging AI within their own operations โ expanding margins, driving automation, & compounding value quietly in the background.
Lately, weโve seen many quality compounders sold down to compelling valuations, while capital has chased anything labeled โAI,โ even pre-revenue businesses now worth tens of billions.
๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ต ๐ฅ๐บ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฎ๐ช๐ค ๐ญ๐ช๐ฌ๐ฆ๐ญ๐บ ๐ธ๐ฐ๐ฏโ๐ต ๐ญ๐ข๐ด๐ต ๐ง๐ฐ๐ณ๐ฆ๐ท๐ฆ๐ณ.
Eventually, when the market begins to see cracks in AI-related CapEx or re-evaluates growth expectations, capital will likely rotate back toward predictable, high-margin compounders quietly executing in the background.
Itโs not about being contrarian against AI โ itโs about being contrarian within quality.
The great opportunities often come from owning world-class businesses everyoneโs temporarily disinterested in. tweet