Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
"China Mainland revenue increased 46%, or 47% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing 25%."
Lululemon is seeing major adoption in China.
The region now accounts for 20% of overall sales.
$LULU https://t.co/0KfW68eR0F
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"China Mainland revenue increased 46%, or 47% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing 25%."
Lululemon is seeing major adoption in China.
The region now accounts for 20% of overall sales.
$LULU https://t.co/0KfW68eR0F
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Post Pandemic Pay Boom Is Fading…Starting at the Bottom
This chart is showing how wage growth has cooled, and who’s feeling it most. Coming out of the pandemic, lower wage workers saw huge raises because employers were desperate to hire. If you were in a service job or anything frontline, switching jobs was the fastest way to get paid more, and companies were forced to keep up. That’s why the blue line shot higher than anything we’d seen in years.
Now that dynamic is fading. Hiring has slowed, job openings are down, and employers don’t have to bid against each other the same way. When that happens, wage growth at the bottom cools first and it cools fast. That’s what you’re seeing as the blue line drops back toward more normal levels.
Why higher earners are holding up better
Higher earners live in a different pay world. Their raises are usually planned, contractual, or tied to retention rather than constant job switching. Companies may slow hiring, but they’re still reluctant to lose experienced talent, so pay at the top tends to drift down more slowly. That’s why the red line doesn’t fall off a cliff the way the blue one does.
This isn’t about the top suddenly winning again. It’s about the bottom losing the unusual leverage it briefly had.
The bigger takeaway
Wages are still rising, but the power balance in the labor market is changing. The era where low wage workers could reliably leapfrog pay by hopping jobs is ending. That’s disinflationary, which policymakers like but it also means the consumer becomes more fragile, because lower earners spend most of what they make.
So this chart isn’t saying the labor market is broken. It’s saying the post pandemic anomaly is over, and we’re sliding back toward a slower, more employer friendly phase of the cycle.
tweet
The Post Pandemic Pay Boom Is Fading…Starting at the Bottom
This chart is showing how wage growth has cooled, and who’s feeling it most. Coming out of the pandemic, lower wage workers saw huge raises because employers were desperate to hire. If you were in a service job or anything frontline, switching jobs was the fastest way to get paid more, and companies were forced to keep up. That’s why the blue line shot higher than anything we’d seen in years.
Now that dynamic is fading. Hiring has slowed, job openings are down, and employers don’t have to bid against each other the same way. When that happens, wage growth at the bottom cools first and it cools fast. That’s what you’re seeing as the blue line drops back toward more normal levels.
Why higher earners are holding up better
Higher earners live in a different pay world. Their raises are usually planned, contractual, or tied to retention rather than constant job switching. Companies may slow hiring, but they’re still reluctant to lose experienced talent, so pay at the top tends to drift down more slowly. That’s why the red line doesn’t fall off a cliff the way the blue one does.
This isn’t about the top suddenly winning again. It’s about the bottom losing the unusual leverage it briefly had.
The bigger takeaway
Wages are still rising, but the power balance in the labor market is changing. The era where low wage workers could reliably leapfrog pay by hopping jobs is ending. That’s disinflationary, which policymakers like but it also means the consumer becomes more fragile, because lower earners spend most of what they make.
So this chart isn’t saying the labor market is broken. It’s saying the post pandemic anomaly is over, and we’re sliding back toward a slower, more employer friendly phase of the cycle.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
SOFR Is Falling Because the Fed Is Quietly Opening the Liquidity Valves
At its core, SOFR is the price of overnight money when it’s backed by Treasuries. If you want to borrow cash for a day and you post safe collateral, SOFR is the rate you pay. That’s why it replaced LIBOR, it’s based on actual transactions, not guesses, and it lives right in the middle of the financial plumbing.
So when SOFR moves, it’s not about vibes or forecasts. It’s a live read on whether cash is easy or tight right now and how hard the pipes are being pressurized.
Why this drop matters
Seeing SOFR down around 3.9% isn’t random. It tells you overnight funding has gotten easier. Banks, funds, and dealers aren’t scrambling for cash the way they were earlier in the cycle. Liquidity is available enough that money trades cheaply without stress leaking into rates.
That kind of move usually happens for one of two reasons…either the Fed is actively easing, or the system is being positioned so easing doesn’t cause a problem. Right now, it’s clearly the second and quietly sliding into the first.
What’s driving it under the hood
Part of this is policy gravity. As the Fed cuts rates and signals it’s done tightening, the front end of the curve naturally drifts lower. SOFR doesn’t resist that, it follows it.
But the more important piece is direct plumbing support. The Fed has started reserve management purchases with roughly $40B in Treasury bills explicitly to keep reserve levels ample. That cash ends up in the banking system, and when reserves rise, overnight funding pressure falls. SOFR reflects that immediately.
On top of that, the Fed removed the aggregate cap on the Standing Overnight Repo Facility, moving it to full allotment. That means any eligible counterparty with Treasuries can get cash overnight without worrying about hitting a limit. When that backstop is unlimited, there’s no reason for repo rates or SOFR to trade with a stress premium.
Then there’s collateral demand. Treasuries are increasingly valuable not just as investments, but as balance sheet grease. Between reserve purchases, reinvestments, and an open repo window, the system is being flooded with both cash and usable collateral. When that happens, lenders are willing to accept a lower rate to stay deployed.
The bigger message
SOFR falling like this isn’t saying everything is great. It’s saying the Fed is making sure overnight funding stays calm as growth slows and risks move from inflation to demand, jobs, and stability.
In plain terms the plumbing is loosening on purpose. Not because we’re entering a boom, but because the cycle is turning and the Fed is making sure the system doesn’t crack while it does.
tweet
SOFR Is Falling Because the Fed Is Quietly Opening the Liquidity Valves
At its core, SOFR is the price of overnight money when it’s backed by Treasuries. If you want to borrow cash for a day and you post safe collateral, SOFR is the rate you pay. That’s why it replaced LIBOR, it’s based on actual transactions, not guesses, and it lives right in the middle of the financial plumbing.
So when SOFR moves, it’s not about vibes or forecasts. It’s a live read on whether cash is easy or tight right now and how hard the pipes are being pressurized.
Why this drop matters
Seeing SOFR down around 3.9% isn’t random. It tells you overnight funding has gotten easier. Banks, funds, and dealers aren’t scrambling for cash the way they were earlier in the cycle. Liquidity is available enough that money trades cheaply without stress leaking into rates.
That kind of move usually happens for one of two reasons…either the Fed is actively easing, or the system is being positioned so easing doesn’t cause a problem. Right now, it’s clearly the second and quietly sliding into the first.
What’s driving it under the hood
Part of this is policy gravity. As the Fed cuts rates and signals it’s done tightening, the front end of the curve naturally drifts lower. SOFR doesn’t resist that, it follows it.
But the more important piece is direct plumbing support. The Fed has started reserve management purchases with roughly $40B in Treasury bills explicitly to keep reserve levels ample. That cash ends up in the banking system, and when reserves rise, overnight funding pressure falls. SOFR reflects that immediately.
On top of that, the Fed removed the aggregate cap on the Standing Overnight Repo Facility, moving it to full allotment. That means any eligible counterparty with Treasuries can get cash overnight without worrying about hitting a limit. When that backstop is unlimited, there’s no reason for repo rates or SOFR to trade with a stress premium.
Then there’s collateral demand. Treasuries are increasingly valuable not just as investments, but as balance sheet grease. Between reserve purchases, reinvestments, and an open repo window, the system is being flooded with both cash and usable collateral. When that happens, lenders are willing to accept a lower rate to stay deployed.
The bigger message
SOFR falling like this isn’t saying everything is great. It’s saying the Fed is making sure overnight funding stays calm as growth slows and risks move from inflation to demand, jobs, and stability.
In plain terms the plumbing is loosening on purpose. Not because we’re entering a boom, but because the cycle is turning and the Fed is making sure the system doesn’t crack while it does.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) falls to 3.9%, its lowest level in 3 years 📉📉 https://t.co/NyfSspcXJu tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Momentum is building on the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
On Monday, it was at 16 signatures.
On Tuesday, it was at 23 signatures.
On Wednesday, it was at 41 signatures.
Today, it is up to 59 signatures.
218 signatures are needed.
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Momentum is building on the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
On Monday, it was at 16 signatures.
On Tuesday, it was at 23 signatures.
On Wednesday, it was at 41 signatures.
Today, it is up to 59 signatures.
218 signatures are needed.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
What @elonmusk is pointing at is the slow math of demographics finally showing up in everyday life. Japan didn’t collapse overnight; it aged. Fewer kids, more elderly, and over time the economy quietly reorganized around care, automation, and maintenance instead of growth. That’s why his diaper example matters. It’s crude, but it’s a clean signal of where a society’s spending and labor are going. Japan crossed the point where adult diapers outsell baby diapers years ago, and that was the inevitable result of decades of low birth rates.
The U.S. isn’t Japan, but it’s earlier in the same process. Right now we’re still around 2 baby diapers for every 1 adult diaper, but adult diaper demand is growing roughly 9% a year, and projections show it overtaking baby diapers by around 2034. Immigration buys time and keeps the population from outright shrinking, but the Boomer wave is real. Labor gets scarcer in jobs you can’t automate, healthcare and housing costs rise, and growth slows not because of a crisis, but because the economy is running with fewer workers relative to dependents. Japan is the warning label, not the panic button and the U.S. is already on the same road, just a few exits back.
tweet
What @elonmusk is pointing at is the slow math of demographics finally showing up in everyday life. Japan didn’t collapse overnight; it aged. Fewer kids, more elderly, and over time the economy quietly reorganized around care, automation, and maintenance instead of growth. That’s why his diaper example matters. It’s crude, but it’s a clean signal of where a society’s spending and labor are going. Japan crossed the point where adult diapers outsell baby diapers years ago, and that was the inevitable result of decades of low birth rates.
The U.S. isn’t Japan, but it’s earlier in the same process. Right now we’re still around 2 baby diapers for every 1 adult diaper, but adult diaper demand is growing roughly 9% a year, and projections show it overtaking baby diapers by around 2034. Immigration buys time and keeps the population from outright shrinking, but the Boomer wave is real. Labor gets scarcer in jobs you can’t automate, healthcare and housing costs rise, and growth slows not because of a crisis, but because the economy is running with fewer workers relative to dependents. Japan is the warning label, not the panic button and the U.S. is already on the same road, just a few exits back.
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memenodes
when you wake up from a dream that was better than your actual life https://t.co/tsh8ifU2lU
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when you wake up from a dream that was better than your actual life https://t.co/tsh8ifU2lU
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memenodes
Me in 2011 instead of buying bitcoin https://t.co/a0wiMehjWh
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Me in 2011 instead of buying bitcoin https://t.co/a0wiMehjWh
2011 regrets.. nice shirt tho 🙄 https://t.co/8WLWzAeN3L tweet