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Fiscal.ai
For the first time in 20+ years, Oracle is burning cash.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$ORCL https://t.co/ZRulzX39Lr
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For the first time in 20+ years, Oracle is burning cash.
Is the CapEx worth it?
$ORCL https://t.co/ZRulzX39Lr
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EndGame Macro
When the Yield Curve Starts Telling the Truth Before the Fed Does
Bills out to six months are all clustered around 3.65–3.70%. That’s basically sitting on top of a fed funds range of 3.50–3.75. So the very front end is saying that they believe the Fed for now, but every small move lower is a nod to softer data and more cuts down the road.
The 1 and 2 year notes are already below the policy range, around 3.55% and 3.52%. That’s the market stepping ahead of the Fed and saying…
“If growth and unemployment keep moving the way they have, you’re not staying this tight for long.”
Once you get to the 5 and 10 year area, yields around 3.7–4.1% are less about the next meeting and more about the next cycle. Those levels fit a world where growth is fading, inflation is coming off the boil, and we’re drifting toward another phase of support with more rate cuts plus balance sheet help rather than back to some clean, pre QE normal.
Then the 20 and 30 year yields near 4.75–4.80% sit there like a warning label. The long end is saying that even if they cut more and quietly restart QE through bill purchases, we’re still looking at big deficits, heavy issuance, and a choppy growth path. If you want to borrow for 30 years, you’re going to pay up.
What the Spreads Are Whispering
The shape matters as much as the levels.
Short bills yield a touch more than the 2 year. That’s the curve hinting that today’s stance is already too tight for where unemployment and growth are headed. The average rate over the next couple of years is expected to be lower than what you’re getting paid on 3 month paper.
The classic recession spreads with the 2s10s and 3 month vs 10 year have moved from deep inversion to a modest positive slope again. Historically that flip doesn’t mean all clear; it usually means we’ve moved from pricing the risk of a downturn to living through the early stages of it. The Fed has started cutting, but the labor market damage hasn’t fully shown up yet.
And the 10s and 30s spread, with the 30 year a good 60 plus bps above the 10 year, is the market baking in a future of repeated interventions. Tighten too far, unemployment rises, growth stalls, the Fed steps back in with some flavor of QE and all against a backdrop of structurally higher government borrowing.
The Big Picture Through That Lens
Viewed this way, the curve reads like a slow motion acknowledgement that the next leg of this story is weaker growth and rising unemployment, followed by a Fed that’s forced to do more than it wants to admit today.
The front end says we’re already pressing our luck. The belly says you’ll be easing into a soft or not so soft downturn. The long end says we don’t believe you can get out of this without more balance sheet games and we’re going to charge a long term premium for that.
It’s a curve that looks like it’s bracing for a slow bleed and another round of we’re not doing QE that everyone knows is QE.
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When the Yield Curve Starts Telling the Truth Before the Fed Does
Bills out to six months are all clustered around 3.65–3.70%. That’s basically sitting on top of a fed funds range of 3.50–3.75. So the very front end is saying that they believe the Fed for now, but every small move lower is a nod to softer data and more cuts down the road.
The 1 and 2 year notes are already below the policy range, around 3.55% and 3.52%. That’s the market stepping ahead of the Fed and saying…
“If growth and unemployment keep moving the way they have, you’re not staying this tight for long.”
Once you get to the 5 and 10 year area, yields around 3.7–4.1% are less about the next meeting and more about the next cycle. Those levels fit a world where growth is fading, inflation is coming off the boil, and we’re drifting toward another phase of support with more rate cuts plus balance sheet help rather than back to some clean, pre QE normal.
Then the 20 and 30 year yields near 4.75–4.80% sit there like a warning label. The long end is saying that even if they cut more and quietly restart QE through bill purchases, we’re still looking at big deficits, heavy issuance, and a choppy growth path. If you want to borrow for 30 years, you’re going to pay up.
What the Spreads Are Whispering
The shape matters as much as the levels.
Short bills yield a touch more than the 2 year. That’s the curve hinting that today’s stance is already too tight for where unemployment and growth are headed. The average rate over the next couple of years is expected to be lower than what you’re getting paid on 3 month paper.
The classic recession spreads with the 2s10s and 3 month vs 10 year have moved from deep inversion to a modest positive slope again. Historically that flip doesn’t mean all clear; it usually means we’ve moved from pricing the risk of a downturn to living through the early stages of it. The Fed has started cutting, but the labor market damage hasn’t fully shown up yet.
And the 10s and 30s spread, with the 30 year a good 60 plus bps above the 10 year, is the market baking in a future of repeated interventions. Tighten too far, unemployment rises, growth stalls, the Fed steps back in with some flavor of QE and all against a backdrop of structurally higher government borrowing.
The Big Picture Through That Lens
Viewed this way, the curve reads like a slow motion acknowledgement that the next leg of this story is weaker growth and rising unemployment, followed by a Fed that’s forced to do more than it wants to admit today.
The front end says we’re already pressing our luck. The belly says you’ll be easing into a soft or not so soft downturn. The long end says we don’t believe you can get out of this without more balance sheet games and we’re going to charge a long term premium for that.
It’s a curve that looks like it’s bracing for a slow bleed and another round of we’re not doing QE that everyone knows is QE.
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AkhenOsiris
Fuck $CART (and any others engaged in this)
https://t.co/H8XZd8baYr
To determine if Instacart is experimenting with pricing, and if so, just how costly it is for shoppers, Groundwork Collaborative, Consumer Reports, and More Perfect Union conducted an independent experiment involving 437 shoppers in live tests across four cities. Researchers assisted shoppers in simultaneously adding items from a specific grocery store to their Instacart shopping carts, but they stopped short of making the purchase. Researchers measured the prices displayed to each shopper and how much those prices varied from one shopper to the next. The results demonstrate how companies could quietly and opaquely charge different customers different prices for the same groceries:
Almost three quarters (74%) of grocery items in the experiment were offered to shoppers at multiple price points on Instacart. The platform offered as many as five different sales prices for the exact same grocery item, in the exact same store, at the exact same time. A dozen Lucerne eggs sold for $3.99, $4.28, $4.59, $4.69, and $4.79 on Instacart at a Safeway store in Washington, D.C. A box of Clif Chocolate Chip Energy bars (10 count) sold for $19.43, $19.99, and $21.99 on Instacart at a Safeway store in Seattle.
Of those items that we found Instacart experimented on, the average difference between the lowest and highest prices was 13%. Some shoppers found grocery prices that were up to 23% higher than prices available to other shoppers for the exact same items, in the exact same store, at the exact same time. A box of Signature SELECT Corn Flakes (18 ounce) on Instacart from a Safeway store in Washington, D.C., sold for $2.99, $3.49, and $3.69, with the highest price 23% greater than the lowest one.
Researchers found that overall Instacart basket totals varied by an average of about 7% for the exact same items from the exact same locations, at the exact same time. The exact same basket of groceries on Instacart from a Safeway store in Seattle, cost some shoppers $114.34, while other shoppers were shown $119.85 and $123.93. At a Target store in North Canton, Ohio, shoppers were shown different prices — $84.43, $84.81, $84.92, $87.91, and $90.47 — for the same basket of groceries.
Based on the average of about 7% difference in basket totals and the amount that Instacart says the average household of four spends on groceries in the U.S., that could translate into a cost swing of about $1,200 per year.
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Fuck $CART (and any others engaged in this)
https://t.co/H8XZd8baYr
To determine if Instacart is experimenting with pricing, and if so, just how costly it is for shoppers, Groundwork Collaborative, Consumer Reports, and More Perfect Union conducted an independent experiment involving 437 shoppers in live tests across four cities. Researchers assisted shoppers in simultaneously adding items from a specific grocery store to their Instacart shopping carts, but they stopped short of making the purchase. Researchers measured the prices displayed to each shopper and how much those prices varied from one shopper to the next. The results demonstrate how companies could quietly and opaquely charge different customers different prices for the same groceries:
Almost three quarters (74%) of grocery items in the experiment were offered to shoppers at multiple price points on Instacart. The platform offered as many as five different sales prices for the exact same grocery item, in the exact same store, at the exact same time. A dozen Lucerne eggs sold for $3.99, $4.28, $4.59, $4.69, and $4.79 on Instacart at a Safeway store in Washington, D.C. A box of Clif Chocolate Chip Energy bars (10 count) sold for $19.43, $19.99, and $21.99 on Instacart at a Safeway store in Seattle.
Of those items that we found Instacart experimented on, the average difference between the lowest and highest prices was 13%. Some shoppers found grocery prices that were up to 23% higher than prices available to other shoppers for the exact same items, in the exact same store, at the exact same time. A box of Signature SELECT Corn Flakes (18 ounce) on Instacart from a Safeway store in Washington, D.C., sold for $2.99, $3.49, and $3.69, with the highest price 23% greater than the lowest one.
Researchers found that overall Instacart basket totals varied by an average of about 7% for the exact same items from the exact same locations, at the exact same time. The exact same basket of groceries on Instacart from a Safeway store in Seattle, cost some shoppers $114.34, while other shoppers were shown $119.85 and $123.93. At a Target store in North Canton, Ohio, shoppers were shown different prices — $84.43, $84.81, $84.92, $87.91, and $90.47 — for the same basket of groceries.
Based on the average of about 7% difference in basket totals and the amount that Instacart says the average household of four spends on groceries in the U.S., that could translate into a cost swing of about $1,200 per year.
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/xq1QcEH1AU
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https://t.co/xq1QcEH1AU
BREAKING: 236,000 people filed for unemployment last week, above expectations. tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
You only need a few great names to make a fortune, as long as you size up when you find them.
So why not focus on those only?
Current positions: $TMDX $ALAB $ONON $ETH $BTC $BABA $NBIS
👇
https://t.co/hU7DJiXwyQ
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You only need a few great names to make a fortune, as long as you size up when you find them.
So why not focus on those only?
Current positions: $TMDX $ALAB $ONON $ETH $BTC $BABA $NBIS
👇
https://t.co/hU7DJiXwyQ
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EndGame Macro
Silver’s ripping because a bunch of slow moving forces finally hit at the same time. We’ve been running a structural supply deficit for years, inventories keep thinning out, and mine production hasn’t meaningfully grown because most silver comes as a by product, you can’t just flip a switch and make more. At the same time, industrial demand has quietly become the real driver with solar, EVs, AI hardware, data centers…all of that is pulling silver into the must have input category where buyers don’t back off when the price jumps.
Then you layer on a Fed that’s easing, real yields drifting lower, and investors nervous about debt, deficits, and the dollar, and suddenly silver looks like the cheaper, higher beta version of gold. So this move is the overdue collision of tight supply, price inelastic demand, and a macro backdrop that invites people back into hard assets.
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Silver’s ripping because a bunch of slow moving forces finally hit at the same time. We’ve been running a structural supply deficit for years, inventories keep thinning out, and mine production hasn’t meaningfully grown because most silver comes as a by product, you can’t just flip a switch and make more. At the same time, industrial demand has quietly become the real driver with solar, EVs, AI hardware, data centers…all of that is pulling silver into the must have input category where buyers don’t back off when the price jumps.
Then you layer on a Fed that’s easing, real yields drifting lower, and investors nervous about debt, deficits, and the dollar, and suddenly silver looks like the cheaper, higher beta version of gold. So this move is the overdue collision of tight supply, price inelastic demand, and a macro backdrop that invites people back into hard assets.
Silver soars to $64 for the first time in history 🚨📈 Dear God 🤯👀 https://t.co/2ffpTOUB1E tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Why to track politicians on Quiver:
Last year, we noticed a suspicious trade made by Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
We posted this report.
$HL has now risen 272% since the trade was made. https://t.co/VQQbo5VItA
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Why to track politicians on Quiver:
Last year, we noticed a suspicious trade made by Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
We posted this report.
$HL has now risen 272% since the trade was made. https://t.co/VQQbo5VItA
tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
$TMDX has reshaped the transplant industry by making Donation after Circulatory Death (DCD) organs scalable.
Since the liver OCS rolled out late 2021, DCD liver transplants grew at 10% CAGR. That’s about 3,500 additional liver transplants compared with what we would have expected without this tech. On top of that, success rates climbed from ~62.5% to ~70% over the same period.
$TMDX OCS is the main driver behind this jump in usable organs and better results. This is what the company does, and data backs their systems.
A system which allows organs to function outside of a body, allows organisation, transportation, better conservation and therefore higher outcomes. Combined with an optimized logistic and medical service to provide the best end-to-end system.
Scalling is a matter of time. Expanding to other organs is a matter of time. Expanding to other geographies is a matter of time.
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$TMDX has reshaped the transplant industry by making Donation after Circulatory Death (DCD) organs scalable.
Since the liver OCS rolled out late 2021, DCD liver transplants grew at 10% CAGR. That’s about 3,500 additional liver transplants compared with what we would have expected without this tech. On top of that, success rates climbed from ~62.5% to ~70% over the same period.
$TMDX OCS is the main driver behind this jump in usable organs and better results. This is what the company does, and data backs their systems.
A system which allows organs to function outside of a body, allows organisation, transportation, better conservation and therefore higher outcomes. Combined with an optimized logistic and medical service to provide the best end-to-end system.
Scalling is a matter of time. Expanding to other organs is a matter of time. Expanding to other geographies is a matter of time.
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App Economy Insights
$AVGO Broadcom's Semiconductor solutions segment is on a roll. https://t.co/pd7MCUcdxV
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$AVGO Broadcom's Semiconductor solutions segment is on a roll. https://t.co/pd7MCUcdxV
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