Offshore
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memenodes
leverage trading is like gambling, it’s awesome https://t.co/2Zja8bFyuf
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leverage trading is like gambling, it’s awesome https://t.co/2Zja8bFyuf
JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump considers eliminating taxes on gambling winnings. https://t.co/hErigtE7wf tweet
The Few Bets That Matter
The market is the combinaison of millions individuals.
If you think you're smarter than this. You're certainly not as smart as you'd expect.
And even if you were to outsmart it. Once or many times. You won't make money until it agrees with you.
That's why patience matters. That's why I don't buy downtrends. That's why I try to leave my ego asides.
Because even being right doesn't matter until proven right.
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The market is the combinaison of millions individuals.
If you think you're smarter than this. You're certainly not as smart as you'd expect.
And even if you were to outsmart it. Once or many times. You won't make money until it agrees with you.
That's why patience matters. That's why I don't buy downtrends. That's why I try to leave my ego asides.
Because even being right doesn't matter until proven right.
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Clark Square Capital
RT @TiehackCapital: Bought some $VRA today during panic selling. Headline loss was mostly a write down of inventory. I think it’s trading at something like a 50% discount to liquidation value. Probably gets acquired after HQ leaseback. Agree w @ClarkSquareCap looks like good r/r from here.
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RT @TiehackCapital: Bought some $VRA today during panic selling. Headline loss was mostly a write down of inventory. I think it’s trading at something like a 50% discount to liquidation value. Probably gets acquired after HQ leaseback. Agree w @ClarkSquareCap looks like good r/r from here.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT…Reading Between the Lines
The national unemployment rate is sitting at 4.4%, barely changed on the month, and 40 states plus D.C. show no significant movement in unemployment. On the surface, nothing is breaking.
But if you stop at the headline, you miss the part of the story that actually matters.
18 states and D.C. have higher unemployment than a year ago and only nine states have seen improvement. Month to month, we also see eight states drifting higher, including New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and West Virginia. These aren’t small rural pockets. These are meaningful labor markets.
That’s not what strong, broad based expansions look like. That’s what late cycle cooling looks like.
Job Growth Is Still There But It’s Narrow
The payroll side tells the same story from a different angle. Only one state posted a statistically significant job gain in September (Missouri), and one state posted a loss (New York). The other 48 states and D.C. were essentially flat.
Over the full year, the pattern holds where 15 states added jobs in a meaningful way; 35 states and D.C. basically didn’t. That’s an extremely narrow foundation for national growth.
And when you look at the big contributors, it’s the same familiar names…Texas (+168k), Pennsylvania (+99.9k), and North Carolina (+79.7k). A handful of states are doing the heavy lifting while much of the country simply stalls in place.
This is the kind of distribution you usually see when the cycle is tiring not when the economy is finding a second wind.
Where the Slowdown Lives
The map of unemployment shows the geography of strain plainly where higher rates cluster on the West Coast (California, Oregon, Nevada), in D.C., in parts of the Northeast, and in some industrial Midwest pockets like Michigan and Ohio. These are places that benefited most from stimulus, tech, and early cycle demand and now they’re giving some of it back.
Meanwhile, the employment growth map is almost the inverse with the Sunbelt and Mountain West continue to add workers, while swaths of the country sit in the 0.0% to 0.5% zone…effectively no growth at all.
When Good Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Truth
Even the bright spots need context. A 4.4% unemployment rate looks fine on paper… but that’s 0.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. Historically, once unemployment rises half a point from cycle lows, recessions often follow. We’re not there but we’re walking toward it.
States with extremely low unemployment (South Dakota at 2.0%, Vermont and Hawaii around 2.5%–2.6%) aren’t booming; they’re shrinking. These are places with aging populations and weak labor force growth, not surging demand.
And the fact that payrolls are unchanged in 48 states is a sign of stagnation.
My Read
Here’s the simplest, clearest way to understand this report…
The labor market engine has clearly downshifted. The strength is narrower, the weakness is spreading, and the overall picture is drifting sideways rather than pushing forward.
The Sunbelt and Mountain West are keeping the headline numbers afloat. The coasts and several industrial states are quietly slipping. And if you removed Texas, Pennsylvania, and the Carolinas from the data, the national picture would look meaningfully worse.
The downturn isn’t loud but it’s persistent. And persistent slowdowns are how recessions begin long before they show up in the aggregate.
If this pattern holds for another couple of quarters, we’ll stop debating whether a slowdown is coming and start debating how deep it might get.
tweet
STATE EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT…Reading Between the Lines
The national unemployment rate is sitting at 4.4%, barely changed on the month, and 40 states plus D.C. show no significant movement in unemployment. On the surface, nothing is breaking.
But if you stop at the headline, you miss the part of the story that actually matters.
18 states and D.C. have higher unemployment than a year ago and only nine states have seen improvement. Month to month, we also see eight states drifting higher, including New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and West Virginia. These aren’t small rural pockets. These are meaningful labor markets.
That’s not what strong, broad based expansions look like. That’s what late cycle cooling looks like.
Job Growth Is Still There But It’s Narrow
The payroll side tells the same story from a different angle. Only one state posted a statistically significant job gain in September (Missouri), and one state posted a loss (New York). The other 48 states and D.C. were essentially flat.
Over the full year, the pattern holds where 15 states added jobs in a meaningful way; 35 states and D.C. basically didn’t. That’s an extremely narrow foundation for national growth.
And when you look at the big contributors, it’s the same familiar names…Texas (+168k), Pennsylvania (+99.9k), and North Carolina (+79.7k). A handful of states are doing the heavy lifting while much of the country simply stalls in place.
This is the kind of distribution you usually see when the cycle is tiring not when the economy is finding a second wind.
Where the Slowdown Lives
The map of unemployment shows the geography of strain plainly where higher rates cluster on the West Coast (California, Oregon, Nevada), in D.C., in parts of the Northeast, and in some industrial Midwest pockets like Michigan and Ohio. These are places that benefited most from stimulus, tech, and early cycle demand and now they’re giving some of it back.
Meanwhile, the employment growth map is almost the inverse with the Sunbelt and Mountain West continue to add workers, while swaths of the country sit in the 0.0% to 0.5% zone…effectively no growth at all.
When Good Numbers Don’t Tell the Whole Truth
Even the bright spots need context. A 4.4% unemployment rate looks fine on paper… but that’s 0.3 percentage points higher than a year ago. Historically, once unemployment rises half a point from cycle lows, recessions often follow. We’re not there but we’re walking toward it.
States with extremely low unemployment (South Dakota at 2.0%, Vermont and Hawaii around 2.5%–2.6%) aren’t booming; they’re shrinking. These are places with aging populations and weak labor force growth, not surging demand.
And the fact that payrolls are unchanged in 48 states is a sign of stagnation.
My Read
Here’s the simplest, clearest way to understand this report…
The labor market engine has clearly downshifted. The strength is narrower, the weakness is spreading, and the overall picture is drifting sideways rather than pushing forward.
The Sunbelt and Mountain West are keeping the headline numbers afloat. The coasts and several industrial states are quietly slipping. And if you removed Texas, Pennsylvania, and the Carolinas from the data, the national picture would look meaningfully worse.
The downturn isn’t loud but it’s persistent. And persistent slowdowns are how recessions begin long before they show up in the aggregate.
If this pattern holds for another couple of quarters, we’ll stop debating whether a slowdown is coming and start debating how deep it might get.
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Offshore
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memenodes
“The road to financial freedom starts with investing”
The road: https://t.co/79YhrUI2l6
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“The road to financial freedom starts with investing”
The road: https://t.co/79YhrUI2l6
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Offshore
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memenodes
crypto bro's after losing their entire net worth
“Scared money makes no money” https://t.co/RAzdORbpFX
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crypto bro's after losing their entire net worth
“Scared money makes no money” https://t.co/RAzdORbpFX
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