Offshore
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memenodes
less money with good sleep is better than huge money with less sleep
Crypto broy with less money and less sleep : https://t.co/sPhhFob2J6
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less money with good sleep is better than huge money with less sleep
Crypto broy with less money and less sleep : https://t.co/sPhhFob2J6
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Offshore
Video
memenodes
When you've watched a few youtube videos and now you're ready to become a crypto trader https://t.co/kuYskDpmm4
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When you've watched a few youtube videos and now you're ready to become a crypto trader https://t.co/kuYskDpmm4
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Behind the Lines of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report And Why the Labor Market Isn’t As Strong As It Pretends to Be
Seasonally adjusted claims rose to 236,000, which is a noticeable jump but still inside the range we’ve been stuck in for over a year. The insured unemployment rate is just 1.2%, a level that historically lines up with a slowing economy. If you only glance at the seasonally smoothed charts the tight band of initial claims floating around 220k and the remarkably flat line of insured unemployment you’d think we’re gliding through a soft landing.
But that’s the 30,000 foot view, and at that distance almost anything looks calm.
Zoom in, and the tone changes.
The Raw Data Is Where the Cracks Show Up
The unadjusted claims, the ones not smoothed by holiday models and seasonal filters jumped 58% in a single week. That’s 313,140 real people filing for new benefits versus the 198k in the previous week. Yes, early December always brings noise, but this surge is too large to hand wave away. It tells you the labor market is losing resilience beneath the surface.
Even more telling is the insured unemployment in state programs where it spiked 15.8% in one week, far above what the seasonal factors anticipated. And the increases weren’t random they were concentrated in the classic early recession sectors…
•transportation and warehousing
•manufacturing
•construction
•accommodation and food services
These are the industries that turn first when demand softens and companies quietly prepare for leaner months ahead.
When these sectors flash red, history says the broader economy follows.
The Good Data Isn’t As Good As It Looks
Some improvements in the report aren’t signs of strength, they’re artifacts.
A few examples…
The low insured unemployment rate?
That number only counts people eligible for unemployment insurance. Gig workers, temp workers, part!timers, people who exhausted benefits, people forced into early retirement, they all disappear from the data. A low insured rate can mean everyone has jobs, but it can just as easily mean the safety net covers fewer people.
The drop in continued claims?
A fall in continued claims can mean folks are getting jobs… but it can also mean they’re running out of eligibility. With benefit durations shrinking in many states, exhaustion looks like “improvement” in the headline but is anything but.
This is why forensic reads matter, you have to interrogate the good data, not just the bad.
The Pattern That Stands Out
Across the entire report, one theme repeats…
The labor market is no longer buffering the economy.
All year long, continued claims have drifted higher despite rate cuts, easier financial conditions, and a Fed that’s saying it’s trying to protect employment. If this is the best the labor market can do with policy help, then it’s already running out of cushion.
The seasonally adjusted line is the heartbeat. The unadjusted line is the arrhythmia. And it’s the arrhythmia you watch when you want to know what comes next.
My Take
This is exactly the kind of claims profile you see right before a recession becomes obvious, not after. Not a spike. Not a collapse. A slow erosion of strength beneath a still orderly surface.
All the stress is showing up in the places you’d expect it to show up first…cyclical sectors, wage sensitive employers, and states tied to manufacturing and goods movement. And the big moves are in the unadjusted data, which tends to turn earlier than the sanitized headline number.
If the broader macro environment keeps weakening with tighter credit, higher refinancing costs, compressed margins then this labor market won’t act as a shock absorber. It’ll act as an amplifier.
That’s the real message of this report.
The ground beneath us is getting thinner, and the seasonal smoothing is the only thing making it look steady.
tweet
Behind the Lines of the Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report And Why the Labor Market Isn’t As Strong As It Pretends to Be
Seasonally adjusted claims rose to 236,000, which is a noticeable jump but still inside the range we’ve been stuck in for over a year. The insured unemployment rate is just 1.2%, a level that historically lines up with a slowing economy. If you only glance at the seasonally smoothed charts the tight band of initial claims floating around 220k and the remarkably flat line of insured unemployment you’d think we’re gliding through a soft landing.
But that’s the 30,000 foot view, and at that distance almost anything looks calm.
Zoom in, and the tone changes.
The Raw Data Is Where the Cracks Show Up
The unadjusted claims, the ones not smoothed by holiday models and seasonal filters jumped 58% in a single week. That’s 313,140 real people filing for new benefits versus the 198k in the previous week. Yes, early December always brings noise, but this surge is too large to hand wave away. It tells you the labor market is losing resilience beneath the surface.
Even more telling is the insured unemployment in state programs where it spiked 15.8% in one week, far above what the seasonal factors anticipated. And the increases weren’t random they were concentrated in the classic early recession sectors…
•transportation and warehousing
•manufacturing
•construction
•accommodation and food services
These are the industries that turn first when demand softens and companies quietly prepare for leaner months ahead.
When these sectors flash red, history says the broader economy follows.
The Good Data Isn’t As Good As It Looks
Some improvements in the report aren’t signs of strength, they’re artifacts.
A few examples…
The low insured unemployment rate?
That number only counts people eligible for unemployment insurance. Gig workers, temp workers, part!timers, people who exhausted benefits, people forced into early retirement, they all disappear from the data. A low insured rate can mean everyone has jobs, but it can just as easily mean the safety net covers fewer people.
The drop in continued claims?
A fall in continued claims can mean folks are getting jobs… but it can also mean they’re running out of eligibility. With benefit durations shrinking in many states, exhaustion looks like “improvement” in the headline but is anything but.
This is why forensic reads matter, you have to interrogate the good data, not just the bad.
The Pattern That Stands Out
Across the entire report, one theme repeats…
The labor market is no longer buffering the economy.
All year long, continued claims have drifted higher despite rate cuts, easier financial conditions, and a Fed that’s saying it’s trying to protect employment. If this is the best the labor market can do with policy help, then it’s already running out of cushion.
The seasonally adjusted line is the heartbeat. The unadjusted line is the arrhythmia. And it’s the arrhythmia you watch when you want to know what comes next.
My Take
This is exactly the kind of claims profile you see right before a recession becomes obvious, not after. Not a spike. Not a collapse. A slow erosion of strength beneath a still orderly surface.
All the stress is showing up in the places you’d expect it to show up first…cyclical sectors, wage sensitive employers, and states tied to manufacturing and goods movement. And the big moves are in the unadjusted data, which tends to turn earlier than the sanitized headline number.
If the broader macro environment keeps weakening with tighter credit, higher refinancing costs, compressed margins then this labor market won’t act as a shock absorber. It’ll act as an amplifier.
That’s the real message of this report.
The ground beneath us is getting thinner, and the seasonal smoothing is the only thing making it look steady.
tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Chris Deluzio has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/X5dLirwyWd
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JUST IN: Representative Chris Deluzio has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/X5dLirwyWd
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AkhenOsiris
$SHOP
Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $185 price target on Shopify.
"This morning, Shopify released Shopify '26 Winter Editions, its biannual product update whereby the company shipped over 150 updates with AI powering a new wave of efficiency, personalization, and innovation for Shopify merchants. Our key takeaway from the release is that Shopify is integrating AI across all aspects of commerce as the company continues to improve the overall experience for merchants through smarter tooling, automation, and simpler ways to use Shopify. This as we also believe Shopify is at the forefront of agentic commerce as the company expands the surface area where merchants can meet customers, which we believe should help drive further share gains and GMV growth for eCommerce merchants. To that end, we remain confident that Shopify can continue to take share of the $6T+ eCommerce market with Shopify being the leader in online, offline, and B2B, while we believe international is an additional growth lever. To that end, we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $185 price target."
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$SHOP
Citizens analyst Andrew Boone reiterated a Market Outperform rating and $185 price target on Shopify.
"This morning, Shopify released Shopify '26 Winter Editions, its biannual product update whereby the company shipped over 150 updates with AI powering a new wave of efficiency, personalization, and innovation for Shopify merchants. Our key takeaway from the release is that Shopify is integrating AI across all aspects of commerce as the company continues to improve the overall experience for merchants through smarter tooling, automation, and simpler ways to use Shopify. This as we also believe Shopify is at the forefront of agentic commerce as the company expands the surface area where merchants can meet customers, which we believe should help drive further share gains and GMV growth for eCommerce merchants. To that end, we remain confident that Shopify can continue to take share of the $6T+ eCommerce market with Shopify being the leader in online, offline, and B2B, while we believe international is an additional growth lever. To that end, we reiterate our Market Outperform rating and $185 price target."
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
🏰 Disney invests $1B in OpenAI.
• Disney becomes a major OpenAI customer.
• Sora & ChatGPT will be able to generate content featuring 200+ Disney characters for social posts (no talent likenesses or voices included). https://t.co/iPNyYbIb89
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🏰 Disney invests $1B in OpenAI.
• Disney becomes a major OpenAI customer.
• Sora & ChatGPT will be able to generate content featuring 200+ Disney characters for social posts (no talent likenesses or voices included). https://t.co/iPNyYbIb89
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Offshore
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memenodes
Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Thanks to crypto, I take this $500,000 vehicle to work every morning https://t.co/bapQm14lES
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
tweet
2008. 2020. And Now 2025 You Know What Comes Around
A 58% surge in unadjusted claims and a 15.8% jump in insured unemployment in a single week might look small compared to the extremes of 2008 or March 2020, but the pattern is what matters. Those episodes started the same way…a sharp rise in claims beneath the seasonally adjusted surface, led by the cyclical parts of the economy that feel the slowdown first. Transportation, manufacturing, construction, food services in every recession of the last four decades began with those sectors rolling over before the broader economy caught on.
So when people say we’ve seen worse, that’s true but the early signals before things got worse looked almost exactly like this. Historically, these kinds of spikes are the tremors before the earthquake, not after. They don’t call the recession by themselves, but they show you where the pressure is building. And if the past is any guide, this is the kind of shift that stops being brushed off as “seasonal noise” a few months later, once the headlines finally catch up to what the raw data was showing first.
tweet