Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative @AOC has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/yortdczuq6
tweet
JUST IN: Representative @AOC has signed the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/yortdczuq6
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
It’s been a wild ride, to say the least
Yet those with strong conviction—who stayed focused on fundamentals & understood the value of the transition $SNPS is undergoing—were the ones most likely to hold steady and see the stock reclaim $475+ https://t.co/qPOYY4E5cW
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
•5-Year Mean: 37.80x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
•5-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.32B
$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️🆗
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
•LTM: 2.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️🆗
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
•LTM: 6.5%
$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)
REVENUES✅
•2019: $3.36B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 12.77%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $602.38M
•2024: $1.28B
•CAGR: 16.34%
*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $4.56
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 23.68%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)
$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $645.44💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $625.27💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
30x P/E: $605.10💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $584.93💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $564.76💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $544.59💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $350💵 I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧[...]
It’s been a wild ride, to say the least
Yet those with strong conviction—who stayed focused on fundamentals & understood the value of the transition $SNPS is undergoing—were the ones most likely to hold steady and see the stock reclaim $475+ https://t.co/qPOYY4E5cW
A quality valuation analysis on $SNPS 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 30.84x
•5-Year Mean: 37.80x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.42%
•5-Year Mean: 2.67%
As you can see, $SNPS appears to be trading somewhere below fair value & near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~22% MORE in earnings per share & ~9% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $SNPS is a good business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $2.59B
•Long-Term Debt: $14.32B
$SNPS has a good balance sheet & 5.38x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅➡️🆗
•2020: 11.8%
•2021: 12.9%
•2022: 18.7%
•2023: 19.3%
•2024: 14.0%
•LTM: 2.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅➡️🆗
•2020: 14.7%
•2021: 14.8%
•2022: 17.8%
•2023: 20.7%
•2024: 18.6%
•LTM: 6.5%
$SNPS had stronger return metrics, but they decreased in the LTM due to the Ansys acquisition (to be expected)
REVENUES✅
•2019: $3.36B
•2024: $6.13B
•CAGR: 12.77%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2019: $602.38M
•2024: $1.28B
•CAGR: 16.34%
*FCF revised down in 2025 to $954.74M, with 2026E at $2.04B
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2019: $4.56
•2024: $13.20
•CAGR: 23.68%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2019 Shares Outstanding: 154.19M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 157.68M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 81.1%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 18.1%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~22% MORE in EPS & ~9% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $SNPS has to grow earnings at a 15.42% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (15.42%) required growth rate:
2025E: $12.82 (-3% YoY) *FY Oct
2026E: $14.02 (9% YoY)
2027E: $17.10 (22% YoY)
2028E: $20.17 (18% YoY)
$SNPS had a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $SNPS ends 2028 with $20.17 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:
32x P/E: $645.44💵 … ~17.6% CAGR
31x P/E: $625.27💵 … ~16.4% CAGR
30x P/E: $605.10💵 … ~15.2% CAGR
29x P/E: $584.93💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
28x P/E: $564.76💵 … ~12.7% CAGR
27x P/E: $544.59💵 … ~11.4% CAGR
Given its quality, moat, predictability, & growth rate, I am comfortable relying on a ~28x multiple, making $SNPS a great consideration today at $387💵
$SNPS will thrive as AI and tech advancements drive chip demand, boosting the need for its cutting-edge semiconductor design software that helps create faster, smarter chips, among other things
Of course recent downward revisions impose a level of skepticism over the short-term, however EDA (75% of revenue) continues to be a strong segment, growing +23% YoY in its latest Q3 report
I consider $SNPS a strong purchase with a substantial margin of safety closer to $350💵, or ~27x NTM earnings (~10% below todays price)
Given today’s estimates, at $350💵 I can reasonably expect ~13.7% CAGR while assuming an attractive & conservative 26x multiple
___
𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧[...]
Offshore
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® It’s been a wild ride, to say the least Yet those with strong conviction—who stayed focused on fundamentals & understood the value of the transition $SNPS is undergoing—were the ones most likely to hold steady and see the…
𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. - Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® tweet
WealthyReadings
$ADBE did everything right.
Another steady quarter, record cash generation, big buybacks, guidance above expectations for stable continuation.
But the market doesn’t care. Why?
Because it wants financial proof of dominance. And that hasn’t shown up yet.
Patience.
tweet
$ADBE did everything right.
Another steady quarter, record cash generation, big buybacks, guidance above expectations for stable continuation.
But the market doesn’t care. Why?
Because it wants financial proof of dominance. And that hasn’t shown up yet.
Patience.
$ADBE is cheap for very good reasons.
Is the company bad? No.
Is it making money? Lots.
Does it have high multiples? No.
Doesn't the market realise that? It does.
The problem is uncertainty.
No one doubt of the quality of the business and its cash generation potential; many doubts about its sustainability in an AI dominated world, even if Adobe does AI.
New tools are taking over some basic work. Who's to say demand will continue to go to $ADBE?
The market doesn't like risk it can't measure. This uncertainty doesn't make the risk/reward attractive right now. That's why $ADBE isn't catching a bid.
Do I believe $ADBE will be disrupted? No.
Do I believe $ADBE will retain its users? Yes.
Am I buying? No.
Simply because the situation isn't attractive. It could take $ADBE two years to bounce from here. It could never bounce. It could be disrupted.
$ADBE isn't an S-tier setup. It doesn't deserve liquidity, today. No matter my personal bias. Because nothing says my bias is right.
If it were right. Then I'll have time. Do you think $ADBE will trade at $1,000 tomorrow? It won't.
Money isn't made by catching the bottom or selling the tops. It is made in between, by minimizing risks to the point where you can be overly aggresive with your positionning and maximize returns.
This requires patience. $ADBE's time will come. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
WealthyReadings (@WealthyReadings) on X
$ADBE is cheap for very good reasons.
Is the company bad? No.
Is it making money? Lots.
Does it have high multiples? No.
Doesn't the market realise that? It does.
The problem is uncertainty.
No one doubt of the quality of the business and its cash generation…
Is the company bad? No.
Is it making money? Lots.
Does it have high multiples? No.
Doesn't the market realise that? It does.
The problem is uncertainty.
No one doubt of the quality of the business and its cash generation…
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$ORCL Oracle Q2 FY26 (Nov. quarter).
• RPO +438% Y/Y & +15% Q/Q to $523B.
• Cloud revenue +34% Y/Y to $8.0B.
• Revenue +14% Y/Y to $16.1B ($0.1B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.26 ($0.62 beat). https://t.co/llhvBEGyLE
tweet
$ORCL Oracle Q2 FY26 (Nov. quarter).
• RPO +438% Y/Y & +15% Q/Q to $523B.
• Cloud revenue +34% Y/Y to $8.0B.
• Revenue +14% Y/Y to $16.1B ($0.1B miss).
• Non-GAAP EPS $2.26 ($0.62 beat). https://t.co/llhvBEGyLE
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$ADBE Adobe Q4 FY25 (Nov. quarter):
• RPO +13% to $22.5B.
• ARR +12% to $25.2B.
• Revenue +10% to $6.2B ($80M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $5.50 ($0.10 beat).
• FY26 revenue ~$26B ($0.1B beat). https://t.co/QOjzephkyN
tweet
$ADBE Adobe Q4 FY25 (Nov. quarter):
• RPO +13% to $22.5B.
• ARR +12% to $25.2B.
• Revenue +10% to $6.2B ($80M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $5.50 ($0.10 beat).
• FY26 revenue ~$26B ($0.1B beat). https://t.co/QOjzephkyN
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
"Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by $68B in Q2 — up 15% sequentially to $523 billion — highlighted by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA, and others"
$ORCL: -9.8% after hours https://t.co/2sYJGUu5Im
tweet
"Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO) increased by $68B in Q2 — up 15% sequentially to $523 billion — highlighted by new commitments from Meta, NVIDIA, and others"
$ORCL: -9.8% after hours https://t.co/2sYJGUu5Im
tweet
AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $CRWD $ZS $PANW
OpenAI says the cyber capabilities of its frontier AI models are accelerating and warns Wednesday that upcoming models are likely to pose a "high" risk, according to a report shared first with Axios.
Why it matters: The models' growing capabilities could significantly expand the number of people able to carry out cyberattacks.
Driving the news: OpenAI said it has already seen a significant increase in capabilities in recent releases, particularly as models are able to operate longer autonomously, paving the way for brute force attacks.
The company notes that GPT-5 scored a 27% on a capture-the-flag exercise in August, GPT-5.1-Codex-Max was able to score 76% last month.
"We expect that upcoming AI models will continue on this trajectory," the company says in the report. "In preparation, we are planning and evaluating as though each new model could reach 'high' levels of cybersecurity capability as measured by our Preparedness Framework."
tweet
OpenAI $CRWD $ZS $PANW
OpenAI says the cyber capabilities of its frontier AI models are accelerating and warns Wednesday that upcoming models are likely to pose a "high" risk, according to a report shared first with Axios.
Why it matters: The models' growing capabilities could significantly expand the number of people able to carry out cyberattacks.
Driving the news: OpenAI said it has already seen a significant increase in capabilities in recent releases, particularly as models are able to operate longer autonomously, paving the way for brute force attacks.
The company notes that GPT-5 scored a 27% on a capture-the-flag exercise in August, GPT-5.1-Codex-Max was able to score 76% last month.
"We expect that upcoming AI models will continue on this trajectory," the company says in the report. "In preparation, we are planning and evaluating as though each new model could reach 'high' levels of cybersecurity capability as measured by our Preparedness Framework."
tweet