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EndGame Macro
Worth your time reading. @DiMartinoBooth doesn’t mince words about what’s at stake for Fed independence…
“Generations of mission creep had led the Committee, not the Board, astray. No longer was monetary policy conducted to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest.’”
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Worth your time reading. @DiMartinoBooth doesn’t mince words about what’s at stake for Fed independence…
“Generations of mission creep had led the Committee, not the Board, astray. No longer was monetary policy conducted to promote the effective operation of the U.S. economy and, more generally, the public interest.’”
The Weekly Quill — OPEN LETTER to The Federal Open Market Committee on behalf of Every Hardworking American Who Wakes Up in the Morning Asking Themselves What Went Wrong
https://t.co/CL8kERJVDP
#federalreserve #powell #dimartinobooth #economy https://t.co/2Zv6pdRqHn tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Cleo Fields just filed purchases of up to $500K of Netflix stock, $NFLX https://t.co/9xh3B6qF9M
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JUST IN: Representative Cleo Fields just filed purchases of up to $500K of Netflix stock, $NFLX https://t.co/9xh3B6qF9M
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Card Limits, BNPL Lifelines And The Real Consumer Pulse
The picture here isn’t dramatic, but it’s meaningful. Total card spending didn’t fall off a cliff it just flattened out in November. And that matters because momentum is what usually signals the tone of the consumer. The blue bars (month to month changes) are not pushing higher anymore, while the red line (year over year) is holding up but no longer climbing. That combination usually shows up when people are still spending, but they’re getting more careful about how they spend.
Why Card Spending Softened
The real reason isn’t mysterious. Prices aren’t rising as fast, households are adjusting to higher costs elsewhere in rent, insurance, student loans and discretionary budgets feel thinner. And for a meaningful share of households, it may also be about capacity: maxed out cards, shrinking credit lines, or banks tightening standards. When people flatten their card usage, it’s often not because they stop buying; it’s because they start swapping to cheaper versions of the same habits or because they simply can’t put any more on the card. You still get the groceries, you just pick the cheaper options. You still shop in November, but you stretch the dollars differently.
How BNPL Fits the Story
And this is where Buy Now, Pay Later fills in the missing piece. November saw BNPL usage jump over $10 billion in online spend, up sharply from last year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday even crossed the $1 billion mark in a single day. That’s not a sign of exuberance. It’s a sign of people managing cash flow. For some, BNPL is a budgeting tool; for others, it’s a workaround when credit cards are tapped out and traditional credit won’t stretch any further. When the budget feels tight or the credit limits are hit, BNPL becomes the pressure valve: a way to keep participating without taking the full hit upfront.
The Bigger Message
Put the two together and the signal gets clearer. Card spending going sideways, BNPL ramping…that’s the behavior of a consumer who’s still engaged but stretched. Not collapsing, not thriving. Just trying to make the month work. And in a late cycle economy, that quiet shift says more about where things are headed than any headline retail number you’ll see.
tweet
Card Limits, BNPL Lifelines And The Real Consumer Pulse
The picture here isn’t dramatic, but it’s meaningful. Total card spending didn’t fall off a cliff it just flattened out in November. And that matters because momentum is what usually signals the tone of the consumer. The blue bars (month to month changes) are not pushing higher anymore, while the red line (year over year) is holding up but no longer climbing. That combination usually shows up when people are still spending, but they’re getting more careful about how they spend.
Why Card Spending Softened
The real reason isn’t mysterious. Prices aren’t rising as fast, households are adjusting to higher costs elsewhere in rent, insurance, student loans and discretionary budgets feel thinner. And for a meaningful share of households, it may also be about capacity: maxed out cards, shrinking credit lines, or banks tightening standards. When people flatten their card usage, it’s often not because they stop buying; it’s because they start swapping to cheaper versions of the same habits or because they simply can’t put any more on the card. You still get the groceries, you just pick the cheaper options. You still shop in November, but you stretch the dollars differently.
How BNPL Fits the Story
And this is where Buy Now, Pay Later fills in the missing piece. November saw BNPL usage jump over $10 billion in online spend, up sharply from last year. Black Friday and Cyber Monday even crossed the $1 billion mark in a single day. That’s not a sign of exuberance. It’s a sign of people managing cash flow. For some, BNPL is a budgeting tool; for others, it’s a workaround when credit cards are tapped out and traditional credit won’t stretch any further. When the budget feels tight or the credit limits are hit, BNPL becomes the pressure valve: a way to keep participating without taking the full hit upfront.
The Bigger Message
Put the two together and the signal gets clearer. Card spending going sideways, BNPL ramping…that’s the behavior of a consumer who’s still engaged but stretched. Not collapsing, not thriving. Just trying to make the month work. And in a late cycle economy, that quiet shift says more about where things are headed than any headline retail number you’ll see.
"Total card spending was flat MoM in November" - BofA credit and debit card data 💳 https://t.co/hBQhI5cb2y tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
UPDATE
In 2023, we posted this report on a purchase of $TCMD filed by Senator Tina Smith.
It’s a medical devices company. Senator Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
$TCMD has now risen 185% since then. https://t.co/ZHcdCn4Sgg
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UPDATE
In 2023, we posted this report on a purchase of $TCMD filed by Senator Tina Smith.
It’s a medical devices company. Senator Smith is on the Senate Committee on Health.
$TCMD has now risen 185% since then. https://t.co/ZHcdCn4Sgg
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