AkhenOsiris
Ads:
WPP Media, one of the world's largest ad-buying agencies, now says it expects the global advertising market to grow by 8.8% this year (excluding U.S. political advertising), up from 6% in June.
Similarly, Brian Wieser — a top advertising industry analyst — raised his U.S. forecast for 2025, projecting 11% growth for 2025 (excluding political advertising), compared to 6% in June.
WPP Media is so optimistic that is has increased its growth estimates for 2026, from the 6.1% it predicted in June to 7.1% now. In the U.S., Wieser believes the ad market will grow 8.9% next year, thanks in part to a boost in midterm political advertising spend.
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Ads:
WPP Media, one of the world's largest ad-buying agencies, now says it expects the global advertising market to grow by 8.8% this year (excluding U.S. political advertising), up from 6% in June.
Similarly, Brian Wieser — a top advertising industry analyst — raised his U.S. forecast for 2025, projecting 11% growth for 2025 (excluding political advertising), compared to 6% in June.
WPP Media is so optimistic that is has increased its growth estimates for 2026, from the 6.1% it predicted in June to 7.1% now. In the U.S., Wieser believes the ad market will grow 8.9% next year, thanks in part to a boost in midterm political advertising spend.
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI COO Lightcap on "code red":
“I think a big part of it is really just starting to push on the rate at which we see improvement in focus areas within the models,” Lightcap said on stage at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday. “What you’re going to see, even starting fairly soon, will be a really exciting series of things that we release.”
Lightcap framed the code red alert as a standard practice that many businesses occasionally undertake to sharpen focus, and not an OpenAI specific action. But Lightcap acknowledged the importance of the move at OpenAI at this moment, given the growth in headcount and projects over the past couple of years.
“It’s a way of forcing company focus,” Lightcap said. “For a company that’s doing a bazillion things, it’s actually quite refreshing.”
He continued: “We will come out of it. I think what comes out of it that way will be really exciting.”
Lightcap told the audience that the company was focused on pushing enterprise adoption of AI tools. He said OpenAI was developing two main levels of enterprise products: user-focused solutions like ChatGPT, which boost team productivity, and lower-level APIs for developers to build custom applications. However, he noted the company currently lacks offerings in the middle tier, such as tools are user-directed but also have deep integration into enterprise systems, like AI coding assistants that employees can direct while tapping into the organization’s code bases. He said the company was also prioritizing further investments to enable enterprises to tackle longer-term, complex tasks using AI.
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OpenAI COO Lightcap on "code red":
“I think a big part of it is really just starting to push on the rate at which we see improvement in focus areas within the models,” Lightcap said on stage at Fortune’s Brainstorm AI conference in San Francisco on Tuesday. “What you’re going to see, even starting fairly soon, will be a really exciting series of things that we release.”
Lightcap framed the code red alert as a standard practice that many businesses occasionally undertake to sharpen focus, and not an OpenAI specific action. But Lightcap acknowledged the importance of the move at OpenAI at this moment, given the growth in headcount and projects over the past couple of years.
“It’s a way of forcing company focus,” Lightcap said. “For a company that’s doing a bazillion things, it’s actually quite refreshing.”
He continued: “We will come out of it. I think what comes out of it that way will be really exciting.”
Lightcap told the audience that the company was focused on pushing enterprise adoption of AI tools. He said OpenAI was developing two main levels of enterprise products: user-focused solutions like ChatGPT, which boost team productivity, and lower-level APIs for developers to build custom applications. However, he noted the company currently lacks offerings in the middle tier, such as tools are user-directed but also have deep integration into enterprise systems, like AI coding assistants that employees can direct while tapping into the organization’s code bases. He said the company was also prioritizing further investments to enable enterprises to tackle longer-term, complex tasks using AI.
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Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
tweet
Are Companies Using AI as Cover for Economic Layoffs?
I’d love to know how many layoffs are being blamed on AI when the real driver is economic pressure. In my opinion the narrative has to stay alive because just four AI centric stocks including Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, and Broadcom have made up about 60% of the S&P’s gains this year, with Nvidia alone driving roughly a quarter of it. That’s how delicate the market really is right now. If the AI story hits a wall, you’re not just losing a narrative you’re pulling the support beam out from under trillions in market cap.
Now imagine you’re a big company staring at slowing revenue, higher funding costs, or consumer weakness. You need to cut jobs. If you say the economy forced our hand, you risk sending the wrong message to investors and hurting your own stock. But if they say they’re restructuring for the AI era, suddenly it sounds strategic, forward leaning, and shareholder friendly even if the actual AI footprint is tiny compared to the scale of the layoffs.
And the kicker is many of these same corporations through pension plans, treasury operations, or stock based comp are heavily invested in the very AI names that are propping up the market. So when their core business is under pressure, it’s incredibly convenient to attribute cuts to AI transformation rather than economic deterioration. Blaming AI protects the narrative that is driving their investment gains. Blaming the economy risks undermining the only part of the market that’s still working for them.
What do you guys think?
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Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Hump That’s Hinting at a Harder Road Ahead
Forward inflation swaps are doing that classic market thing where they’re not losing faith in the long run, but they’re pricing a rougher ride getting there.
You’ve got 1y1y a bit above 3, 2y2y up in the mid 3s, and 5y5y still anchored in the mid 2s. The shape is the message. It’s basically saying inflation probably cools over time… but the next couple years won’t be smooth.
And if you layer in growth concerns alongside ongoing disinflation maybe even a brush with deflation then that hump doesn’t have to mean inflation is coming back. Often it’s the market hedging policy risk and macro messiness at the same time. Demand can weaken while certain categories stay sticky (tariffs, supply frictions, lagging services). Credit can tighten in the background. Inflation trends down, but the path is uneven and that unevenness shows up as a premium in the forwards.
The timing matters too. With a 25 bp cut expected tomorrow, swaps ticking up into the meeting can be partly macro, partly mechanics. People don’t want to be positioned for a clean mission accomplished story if the Fed signals it’s cutting because the economy is bending.
My Read On What’s Driving It
If I had to rank it…
• Most likely…it’s path and policy uncertainty, the market saying the destination is lower inflation, but the next 1–3 years could be messy.
• Next…structural stickiness (tariffs, services, fiscal/geopolitical frictions) keeping the middle of the curve noisy even as inflation cools.
• Also in the mix…flows and hedging into a major Fed decision in a post‑QT setup.
The Foreshadowing
This points to a stop and go easing cycle not because the Fed wants drama, but because the economy is forcing their hand in stages. Think…cut, reassess, cut again as weakness shows up, then move more cautiously not because they’re done, but because the data is laggy and the cycle is hard to read in real time.
And honestly, the backdrop matters here with the refinancing wall, rising delinquencies, and growing default pressure make a true pause and relax posture harder to sustain. Even if the Fed varies the pace, the gravitational pull is still toward more easing.
The real tell remains 5y5y, just viewed through the right lens…
• If it stays steady, it’s the market saying long run expectations are holding.
• If it slips, that’s the growth and disinflation scare getting louder.
• If it rises, that’s the market testing credibility.
Either way, the next chapter probably won’t be linear. It’s going to be about judgment. because the economy can cool into something weaker even while a few stubborn price pressures refuse to fully let go.
tweet
The Hump That’s Hinting at a Harder Road Ahead
Forward inflation swaps are doing that classic market thing where they’re not losing faith in the long run, but they’re pricing a rougher ride getting there.
You’ve got 1y1y a bit above 3, 2y2y up in the mid 3s, and 5y5y still anchored in the mid 2s. The shape is the message. It’s basically saying inflation probably cools over time… but the next couple years won’t be smooth.
And if you layer in growth concerns alongside ongoing disinflation maybe even a brush with deflation then that hump doesn’t have to mean inflation is coming back. Often it’s the market hedging policy risk and macro messiness at the same time. Demand can weaken while certain categories stay sticky (tariffs, supply frictions, lagging services). Credit can tighten in the background. Inflation trends down, but the path is uneven and that unevenness shows up as a premium in the forwards.
The timing matters too. With a 25 bp cut expected tomorrow, swaps ticking up into the meeting can be partly macro, partly mechanics. People don’t want to be positioned for a clean mission accomplished story if the Fed signals it’s cutting because the economy is bending.
My Read On What’s Driving It
If I had to rank it…
• Most likely…it’s path and policy uncertainty, the market saying the destination is lower inflation, but the next 1–3 years could be messy.
• Next…structural stickiness (tariffs, services, fiscal/geopolitical frictions) keeping the middle of the curve noisy even as inflation cools.
• Also in the mix…flows and hedging into a major Fed decision in a post‑QT setup.
The Foreshadowing
This points to a stop and go easing cycle not because the Fed wants drama, but because the economy is forcing their hand in stages. Think…cut, reassess, cut again as weakness shows up, then move more cautiously not because they’re done, but because the data is laggy and the cycle is hard to read in real time.
And honestly, the backdrop matters here with the refinancing wall, rising delinquencies, and growing default pressure make a true pause and relax posture harder to sustain. Even if the Fed varies the pace, the gravitational pull is still toward more easing.
The real tell remains 5y5y, just viewed through the right lens…
• If it stays steady, it’s the market saying long run expectations are holding.
• If it slips, that’s the growth and disinflation scare getting louder.
• If it rises, that’s the market testing credibility.
Either way, the next chapter probably won’t be linear. It’s going to be about judgment. because the economy can cool into something weaker even while a few stubborn price pressures refuse to fully let go.
Swaps stirring https://t.co/Cp7u1ZSA7b tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MA increased its quarterly dividend by +14% to $0.87 per share & authorized a new $14B buyback program 💳
The new repurchase plan will go into effect after the remaining $4.2B under the existing authorization is completed https://t.co/onRThbjubF
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$MA increased its quarterly dividend by +14% to $0.87 per share & authorized a new $14B buyback program 💳
The new repurchase plan will go into effect after the remaining $4.2B under the existing authorization is completed https://t.co/onRThbjubF
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The U.S. is an outlier because it’s built differently from almost every other advanced economy. You can see it the moment you look at income distribution. The top end lives in a completely different universe, and the bottom end lives in a system where the basics cost more and security isn’t guaranteed in the same way. That contrast is the heart of the American story, remarkable upside paired with real vulnerability.
The Power Side of the Equation
America rewards scale, ideas, and ownership like no one else.
If you create something valuable, build a company, hold equity, or land in a high productivity city, the sky is almost uncapped. The country is wired for invention with deep capital markets, a culture that tolerates risk, and a legal system that protects intellectual property. That mix produces billion dollar companies and life changing wealth. It’s why the top quintile earns so much more than its counterparts abroad. In that sense, the U.S. is still the world’s best engine for turning ambition into real economic gains.
You also can’t ignore the strategic layer where the U.S. carries an enormous share of global defense and security costs. Most of its allies spend a fraction of what America does because they rely on the U.S. military umbrella. That burden shapes federal budgets and limits how much can be redirected toward social programs. It doesn’t erase the country’s strengths, but it does define the terrain the U.S. operates on.
The Fragile Side of the Equation
The bottom half of the country doesn’t experience the same lift. Not because people aren’t working, but because the American model offloads so much onto the individual like healthcare tied to your job, education paid through debt, childcare priced like rent, and housing clustered in the places where opportunity is highest and affordability is lowest. So even when income looks okay on paper, life can feel stretched. A small setback like a medical bill, a layoff, a move can ripple through a household in a way that would be absorbed in countries with stronger social cushions.
And geography deepens the divide. Coastal tech hubs operate almost like separate countries compared to rural regions or old industrial towns. It’s one national economy with multiple economic climates, and that difference shapes everything from mobility to political attitudes.
The Real American Paradox
Put it all together and the U.S. becomes a study in contrasts, the place where global wealth gets created, and the place where everyday life can feel precarious for people not riding the upside. It’s not just inequality, it’s the structure of inequality. A spectacular ceiling. A thinner floor. And a system that asks individuals to absorb more risk while also carrying the weight of being the world’s stabilizing force.
The question going forward isn’t whether America is wealthy…it clearly is.
It’s whether that wealth keeps lifting only the top or eventually finds a way to rebuild the floor underneath everyone else.
tweet
The U.S. is an outlier because it’s built differently from almost every other advanced economy. You can see it the moment you look at income distribution. The top end lives in a completely different universe, and the bottom end lives in a system where the basics cost more and security isn’t guaranteed in the same way. That contrast is the heart of the American story, remarkable upside paired with real vulnerability.
The Power Side of the Equation
America rewards scale, ideas, and ownership like no one else.
If you create something valuable, build a company, hold equity, or land in a high productivity city, the sky is almost uncapped. The country is wired for invention with deep capital markets, a culture that tolerates risk, and a legal system that protects intellectual property. That mix produces billion dollar companies and life changing wealth. It’s why the top quintile earns so much more than its counterparts abroad. In that sense, the U.S. is still the world’s best engine for turning ambition into real economic gains.
You also can’t ignore the strategic layer where the U.S. carries an enormous share of global defense and security costs. Most of its allies spend a fraction of what America does because they rely on the U.S. military umbrella. That burden shapes federal budgets and limits how much can be redirected toward social programs. It doesn’t erase the country’s strengths, but it does define the terrain the U.S. operates on.
The Fragile Side of the Equation
The bottom half of the country doesn’t experience the same lift. Not because people aren’t working, but because the American model offloads so much onto the individual like healthcare tied to your job, education paid through debt, childcare priced like rent, and housing clustered in the places where opportunity is highest and affordability is lowest. So even when income looks okay on paper, life can feel stretched. A small setback like a medical bill, a layoff, a move can ripple through a household in a way that would be absorbed in countries with stronger social cushions.
And geography deepens the divide. Coastal tech hubs operate almost like separate countries compared to rural regions or old industrial towns. It’s one national economy with multiple economic climates, and that difference shapes everything from mobility to political attitudes.
The Real American Paradox
Put it all together and the U.S. becomes a study in contrasts, the place where global wealth gets created, and the place where everyday life can feel precarious for people not riding the upside. It’s not just inequality, it’s the structure of inequality. A spectacular ceiling. A thinner floor. And a system that asks individuals to absorb more risk while also carrying the weight of being the world’s stabilizing force.
The question going forward isn’t whether America is wealthy…it clearly is.
It’s whether that wealth keeps lifting only the top or eventually finds a way to rebuild the floor underneath everyone else.
Income distribution within the world's 15 biggest economies 📊
What do you notice? 🤔 https://t.co/92BCBBMJ5Q tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: The odds of AI being named Time's Person of the Year are soaring on Polymarket.
There doesn't seem to be any public news that explains this.
We will see if this ends up being insiders. https://t.co/2PgFR91zCB
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JUST IN: The odds of AI being named Time's Person of the Year are soaring on Polymarket.
There doesn't seem to be any public news that explains this.
We will see if this ends up being insiders. https://t.co/2PgFR91zCB
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
The Student Loan Whiplash And How 7 Million Borrowers Can Reshape Credit and Lending Overnight
The government is basically shutting down the SAVE plan and pushing millions of borrowers back into real repayment. It’s not a small administrative move because it forces people who’ve been in a kind of suspended animation to choose a new plan and start paying again. And because the SAVE group is huge, the shift is going to hit a very wide slice of younger and lower income borrowers all at once.
How many people this touches
Somewhere between 7 and 7.7 million borrowers get pulled out of the pause and dropped back into repayment. That’s a meaningful chunk of the entire federal loan system. For a lot of them, the new plans mean higher monthly payments than what they were expecting under SAVE.
Why this matters for credit and banks
When you restart payments for that many people at once, not everyone is going to land smoothly. Some will miss payments. Some will fall behind. And student loan delinquencies hit credit files fast. Once that happens, credit scores drop, debt to income ratios worsen, and suddenly the pool of qualified borrowers shrinks. Banks don’t ignore that, they tighten lending, raise overlays, and become less willing to take chances on borderline files. It doesn’t take a crisis to change lending behavior; it just takes millions of borrowers getting squeezed at the same time.
Why Fannie Mae’s Recent Move Matters
This is the backdrop for Fannie Mae removing the hard 620 credit score floor and shifting to a full profile underwriting approach. It’s not a loosening as much as a recognition…the borrower pool is changing, credit scores alone aren’t telling the whole story, and if lenders cling to rigid cutoffs, the market will freeze. Fannie is trying to widen the funnel without pretending risk has vanished, more weight on income stability, cash flow, and payment patterns, less on one blunt number.
What ties all of this together is simple…the system is adjusting because the pressure is building. Millions reenter repayment, credit quality softens, lenders get cautious, and the agencies start rewriting the rules just to keep the gears turning.
tweet
The Student Loan Whiplash And How 7 Million Borrowers Can Reshape Credit and Lending Overnight
The government is basically shutting down the SAVE plan and pushing millions of borrowers back into real repayment. It’s not a small administrative move because it forces people who’ve been in a kind of suspended animation to choose a new plan and start paying again. And because the SAVE group is huge, the shift is going to hit a very wide slice of younger and lower income borrowers all at once.
How many people this touches
Somewhere between 7 and 7.7 million borrowers get pulled out of the pause and dropped back into repayment. That’s a meaningful chunk of the entire federal loan system. For a lot of them, the new plans mean higher monthly payments than what they were expecting under SAVE.
Why this matters for credit and banks
When you restart payments for that many people at once, not everyone is going to land smoothly. Some will miss payments. Some will fall behind. And student loan delinquencies hit credit files fast. Once that happens, credit scores drop, debt to income ratios worsen, and suddenly the pool of qualified borrowers shrinks. Banks don’t ignore that, they tighten lending, raise overlays, and become less willing to take chances on borderline files. It doesn’t take a crisis to change lending behavior; it just takes millions of borrowers getting squeezed at the same time.
Why Fannie Mae’s Recent Move Matters
This is the backdrop for Fannie Mae removing the hard 620 credit score floor and shifting to a full profile underwriting approach. It’s not a loosening as much as a recognition…the borrower pool is changing, credit scores alone aren’t telling the whole story, and if lenders cling to rigid cutoffs, the market will freeze. Fannie is trying to widen the funnel without pretending risk has vanished, more weight on income stability, cash flow, and payment patterns, less on one blunt number.
What ties all of this together is simple…the system is adjusting because the pressure is building. Millions reenter repayment, credit quality softens, lenders get cautious, and the agencies start rewriting the rules just to keep the gears turning.
Trump administration moves to remove millions of student loan borrowers from payment pause
#MacroEdge tweet