Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Excellent. Two of my favorites follows @GeorgeGammon and @m3_melody https://t.co/QHoF2Em89q
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Excellent. Two of my favorites follows @GeorgeGammon and @m3_melody https://t.co/QHoF2Em89q
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Offshore
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App Economy Insights
🍿 Netflix + Warner Bros. 📊
The $83B deal visualized:
• What Netflix is buying
• The bid vs. Paramount
• Who wins & who loses
• Balance sheet madness
• Vertical vs. horizontal merger👇
https://t.co/dGBendVe7H
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🍿 Netflix + Warner Bros. 📊
The $83B deal visualized:
• What Netflix is buying
• The bid vs. Paramount
• Who wins & who loses
• Balance sheet madness
• Vertical vs. horizontal merger👇
https://t.co/dGBendVe7H
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Future share cannibal?
Crocs has now reduced its total shares outstanding by 10.4% over the last 12 months.
Current Buyback Yield: 13.9%
$CROX https://t.co/TYQXGpAtYe
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Future share cannibal?
Crocs has now reduced its total shares outstanding by 10.4% over the last 12 months.
Current Buyback Yield: 13.9%
$CROX https://t.co/TYQXGpAtYe
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Offshore
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Clark Square Capital
RT @AstutexAi: The Curious Case of Vera Bradley: Influencer Stock Pumper, the Fund 1 Partial Exit, and the Pre-Sale Signals
I don’t typically address issues like this, as they’re outside my competence and I don’t bet on such outcomes, but this situation is a bit special. So here’s what happened recently with Vera Bradley. I’ll also attach a link to Gemini Deep Research in the first comment in case you want to dive into more details.
1) The company extended its poison pill for 1 year on October 10th
2) It amended the JPM credit agreement, pledging IP to unlock asset sales on October 27th
3) It listed its HQ for sale/leaseback - 1-year lease only (!) - on October 28th
4) Ivan Brockman from PJT was appointed to the board on November 17th
So sale preparations were going at full speed, but then comes the fun part (not so fun actually if you held through these days like me 😵💫):
5) Felix Prehn, a finfluencer, pumps the stock, which had technically started to improve earlier (entered Stage 2 on October 27th). Volume shoots up, shorts cover, some merger arbitragers and quants step in betting on a buyout, and the stock flies
6) Fund 1 decides to sell into this event and unloads all physical shares (10%), leaving exposure only through swaps (6.7%). they previously claimed an additional 10% exposure through swaps
7) Fund 1 files its updated ownership on November 20th, leaving a lot of speculators disappointed, stock crashes 18%
8) Now the hot air is coming out and distributing into the market with very few buyers before earnings on Thursday - the same pattern as CTKB, which Felix Prehn pumped earlier (November 14th)
But what is actually going on with the business itself? Two things worth mentioning:
1) The company is aggressively liquidating old inventory in the off-price channel - Costco, TJX, Marshalls, and even Dollar General. That means margins might be weaker than expected, but this is totally fine. Any potential buyer wouldn’t want to deal with inventory that’s similar in size to the deal value, so company prioritizes cash over margin
2) Several new products are doing very well - the Anthro collab, 100 Handbag, all Star Patchwork products, Peanuts collection and Aristocats (101 Dalmatians not so much, so cats win this time 🐱) mostly sold out. There might be an issue with artificially limiting availability to create online hype, but I’m not sure you’d want to do that before a sale
I still think $VRA is worth at least $5 per share, and at $2 it’s a steal. I own shares, so wish me luck🫡
Also big thanks to @ClarkSquareCap for valuable insights - he’s the man and a must-follow!
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RT @AstutexAi: The Curious Case of Vera Bradley: Influencer Stock Pumper, the Fund 1 Partial Exit, and the Pre-Sale Signals
I don’t typically address issues like this, as they’re outside my competence and I don’t bet on such outcomes, but this situation is a bit special. So here’s what happened recently with Vera Bradley. I’ll also attach a link to Gemini Deep Research in the first comment in case you want to dive into more details.
1) The company extended its poison pill for 1 year on October 10th
2) It amended the JPM credit agreement, pledging IP to unlock asset sales on October 27th
3) It listed its HQ for sale/leaseback - 1-year lease only (!) - on October 28th
4) Ivan Brockman from PJT was appointed to the board on November 17th
So sale preparations were going at full speed, but then comes the fun part (not so fun actually if you held through these days like me 😵💫):
5) Felix Prehn, a finfluencer, pumps the stock, which had technically started to improve earlier (entered Stage 2 on October 27th). Volume shoots up, shorts cover, some merger arbitragers and quants step in betting on a buyout, and the stock flies
6) Fund 1 decides to sell into this event and unloads all physical shares (10%), leaving exposure only through swaps (6.7%). they previously claimed an additional 10% exposure through swaps
7) Fund 1 files its updated ownership on November 20th, leaving a lot of speculators disappointed, stock crashes 18%
8) Now the hot air is coming out and distributing into the market with very few buyers before earnings on Thursday - the same pattern as CTKB, which Felix Prehn pumped earlier (November 14th)
But what is actually going on with the business itself? Two things worth mentioning:
1) The company is aggressively liquidating old inventory in the off-price channel - Costco, TJX, Marshalls, and even Dollar General. That means margins might be weaker than expected, but this is totally fine. Any potential buyer wouldn’t want to deal with inventory that’s similar in size to the deal value, so company prioritizes cash over margin
2) Several new products are doing very well - the Anthro collab, 100 Handbag, all Star Patchwork products, Peanuts collection and Aristocats (101 Dalmatians not so much, so cats win this time 🐱) mostly sold out. There might be an issue with artificially limiting availability to create online hype, but I’m not sure you’d want to do that before a sale
I still think $VRA is worth at least $5 per share, and at $2 it’s a steal. I own shares, so wish me luck🫡
Also big thanks to @ClarkSquareCap for valuable insights - he’s the man and a must-follow!
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