AkhenOsiris
$APP CEO on full launch of self-serve in 2026:
"Yeah. So the web model is starting earlier. So as you've already seen with prospecting coming out, we're making really big innovations quickly. The underlying model has improved over the last year as well. And if you talk to the customers, you get a sense that their performance keeps improving. We're also starting at a point of data penetration that's really low relative to where we are in gaming. So as we get more data that comes from more customers, that model is going to keep improving. So what really excites us is that we're already really good, yet we know that the model and the data position is going to get only much stronger over time. On the former, we're building tools really fast. The dashboard, the Axon Ads Manager, is very effective for the customer. They're having a good experience. Customers can sign up today. I mentioned on the earnings call that since we went to referral state at point of earnings, we were seeing 50% roughly a week, week-over-week growth on that business line. Now it's starting small, but I've started multiple businesses. If you're ever going through a period of 50% week-over-week growth, you get ecstatic about a business opportunity like that.
VCs would be lining up with a lot of money to fund something like that. So we're seeing that the opportunity is going to be really large. Now, what gets us to open is that we're able to execute on marketing the brand, being able to tell small businesses around the world that this Axon Ads Manager and this Axon opportunity could be a game changer for them and their business. Of course, this brand didn't even exist a couple of months ago. So we have to nail the marketing side. The way I think about it, and this has been helpful for investors to understand, is that I talk to our team that's doing this growth marketing testing right now and say, look, a great outcome next year would be if we could spend $1 million a day in advertising, and we'll do sponsorships, we'll do advertising, we'll do more media, we'll do podcasts, but if you combine it all and we spend $1 million a day, and it costs us $2,000 to sign up a new customer that goes live on our platform, you'd spend $365 million over the year, and you would get 182,500 new customers in one year.
Now, recall that we've disclosed we only have thousands of customers. If the number can ramp up that quickly with a number that's very immaterial against a revenue base, so you wouldn't even expect much of a margin impact, this business is going to be off to the races. We think it's doable. The second we're ready to do it, we'll open up the platform. We'll be talking about it with investors. And certainly, the small businesses in the world will start seeing that opportunity out there for them."
$APP CEO on new customers in e-commerce
At today's Nasdaq Investor Conference in London with Morgan Stanley:
"And what we saw when we put this into pilot in October is that the results were universally phenomenal. You had customers where they were getting, as an example, 40% new customers, 60% retargeting. Click a button in our dashboard, instantly go to 80% new customer rate. So if you end up doing industry checks and talking to a customer that's buying on our platform in this method, they'll say the results are great. They do measure up really well against the market leader. Why that's exciting for us is that if you take that disclosure that we made with the 600 advertisers, billion-dollar spend, and understand the biggest customers in that cohort were not maximized in spend potential, and that this prospecting tool will maximize their spend on our platform as we go forward, it really makes our ability to extract dollars from customer base even larger than what we put out there. Which then, as you say, we have an opportunity in front of us to go acquire hundreds of thousands of customers, makes the potential future opportunity even bigger than it was before." - AkhenOsiris tweet
$APP CEO on full launch of self-serve in 2026:
"Yeah. So the web model is starting earlier. So as you've already seen with prospecting coming out, we're making really big innovations quickly. The underlying model has improved over the last year as well. And if you talk to the customers, you get a sense that their performance keeps improving. We're also starting at a point of data penetration that's really low relative to where we are in gaming. So as we get more data that comes from more customers, that model is going to keep improving. So what really excites us is that we're already really good, yet we know that the model and the data position is going to get only much stronger over time. On the former, we're building tools really fast. The dashboard, the Axon Ads Manager, is very effective for the customer. They're having a good experience. Customers can sign up today. I mentioned on the earnings call that since we went to referral state at point of earnings, we were seeing 50% roughly a week, week-over-week growth on that business line. Now it's starting small, but I've started multiple businesses. If you're ever going through a period of 50% week-over-week growth, you get ecstatic about a business opportunity like that.
VCs would be lining up with a lot of money to fund something like that. So we're seeing that the opportunity is going to be really large. Now, what gets us to open is that we're able to execute on marketing the brand, being able to tell small businesses around the world that this Axon Ads Manager and this Axon opportunity could be a game changer for them and their business. Of course, this brand didn't even exist a couple of months ago. So we have to nail the marketing side. The way I think about it, and this has been helpful for investors to understand, is that I talk to our team that's doing this growth marketing testing right now and say, look, a great outcome next year would be if we could spend $1 million a day in advertising, and we'll do sponsorships, we'll do advertising, we'll do more media, we'll do podcasts, but if you combine it all and we spend $1 million a day, and it costs us $2,000 to sign up a new customer that goes live on our platform, you'd spend $365 million over the year, and you would get 182,500 new customers in one year.
Now, recall that we've disclosed we only have thousands of customers. If the number can ramp up that quickly with a number that's very immaterial against a revenue base, so you wouldn't even expect much of a margin impact, this business is going to be off to the races. We think it's doable. The second we're ready to do it, we'll open up the platform. We'll be talking about it with investors. And certainly, the small businesses in the world will start seeing that opportunity out there for them."
$APP CEO on new customers in e-commerce
At today's Nasdaq Investor Conference in London with Morgan Stanley:
"And what we saw when we put this into pilot in October is that the results were universally phenomenal. You had customers where they were getting, as an example, 40% new customers, 60% retargeting. Click a button in our dashboard, instantly go to 80% new customer rate. So if you end up doing industry checks and talking to a customer that's buying on our platform in this method, they'll say the results are great. They do measure up really well against the market leader. Why that's exciting for us is that if you take that disclosure that we made with the 600 advertisers, billion-dollar spend, and understand the biggest customers in that cohort were not maximized in spend potential, and that this prospecting tool will maximize their spend on our platform as we go forward, it really makes our ability to extract dollars from customer base even larger than what we put out there. Which then, as you say, we have an opportunity in front of us to go acquire hundreds of thousands of customers, makes the potential future opportunity even bigger than it was before." - AkhenOsiris tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Home Depot Just Drew the Economic Roadmap for 2026 And It’s Not a Soft Landing
If you peel away the corporate gloss, Home Depot is basically admitting that the U.S. consumer is worn out and the housing engine isn’t ready to kick back on. Their early 2026 outlook doesn’t sound like a company expecting a smooth glide path. It sounds like a company preparing for another uneven, slow motion year.
Low single digit sales, flat comps, earnings still below where they were two years ago, none of that screams doom, but it also doesn’t scream recovery. It’s the kind of guidance you give when big ticket spending is frozen, affordability is still tight, and homeowners are doing the bare minimum because the macro backdrop feels unstable.
The Recovery Case Is Always One Step Beyond the Data
The only part of their message that feels upbeat is the scenario they call the “recovery case.” But even that lives in the future, after mortgage rates finally fall and after housing activity turns. They’re painting a rebound that arrives once the cycle resets, not something that happens just because the Fed cuts a few times.
And the part people keep missing is that if mortgage rates fall because the 10 year is sliding, it’s usually not a sign of economic strength, it’s a sign the real economy is weakening. Bond markets don’t front run housing euphoria; they front run slowing growth, rising unemployment, and the need for easier policy. Every sustained easing cycle in the modern era happened while the job market was deteriorating, not improving.
So Home Depot’s timing lines up perfectly with history. They’re effectively saying that they’re stuck in the hangover for a while, and the recovery only shows up after the breakage works through the economy.
And This Is Where Psychology Starts Driving the Cycle
Housing never moves on interest rates alone. It moves on confidence or the lack of it. If unemployment continues climbing the way it typically does once the Fed starts cutting, buyers freeze. People don’t take out 30 year mortgages when they’re watching coworkers get laid off. They don’t upgrade homes when they’re quietly asking themselves whether their job is recession proof. They wait. They postpone. They hunker down.
And the data already points in that direction with record delinquencies in key consumer credit categories, bankruptcies hitting 15 year highs, over 1.1 million layoffs announced this year, the most since 2020.
That’s not the backdrop for a demand boom; it’s the backdrop for caution.
My Read
Home Depot is signaling a long stretch of muddling through a tired consumer, cautious spending, and a housing market that doesn’t pick up until after the economy gets through whatever slowdown the bond market is already whispering about.
The recovery comes but only after the turbulence finishes working through the labor market and after households feel secure enough to take risk again.
tweet
Home Depot Just Drew the Economic Roadmap for 2026 And It’s Not a Soft Landing
If you peel away the corporate gloss, Home Depot is basically admitting that the U.S. consumer is worn out and the housing engine isn’t ready to kick back on. Their early 2026 outlook doesn’t sound like a company expecting a smooth glide path. It sounds like a company preparing for another uneven, slow motion year.
Low single digit sales, flat comps, earnings still below where they were two years ago, none of that screams doom, but it also doesn’t scream recovery. It’s the kind of guidance you give when big ticket spending is frozen, affordability is still tight, and homeowners are doing the bare minimum because the macro backdrop feels unstable.
The Recovery Case Is Always One Step Beyond the Data
The only part of their message that feels upbeat is the scenario they call the “recovery case.” But even that lives in the future, after mortgage rates finally fall and after housing activity turns. They’re painting a rebound that arrives once the cycle resets, not something that happens just because the Fed cuts a few times.
And the part people keep missing is that if mortgage rates fall because the 10 year is sliding, it’s usually not a sign of economic strength, it’s a sign the real economy is weakening. Bond markets don’t front run housing euphoria; they front run slowing growth, rising unemployment, and the need for easier policy. Every sustained easing cycle in the modern era happened while the job market was deteriorating, not improving.
So Home Depot’s timing lines up perfectly with history. They’re effectively saying that they’re stuck in the hangover for a while, and the recovery only shows up after the breakage works through the economy.
And This Is Where Psychology Starts Driving the Cycle
Housing never moves on interest rates alone. It moves on confidence or the lack of it. If unemployment continues climbing the way it typically does once the Fed starts cutting, buyers freeze. People don’t take out 30 year mortgages when they’re watching coworkers get laid off. They don’t upgrade homes when they’re quietly asking themselves whether their job is recession proof. They wait. They postpone. They hunker down.
And the data already points in that direction with record delinquencies in key consumer credit categories, bankruptcies hitting 15 year highs, over 1.1 million layoffs announced this year, the most since 2020.
That’s not the backdrop for a demand boom; it’s the backdrop for caution.
My Read
Home Depot is signaling a long stretch of muddling through a tired consumer, cautious spending, and a housing market that doesn’t pick up until after the economy gets through whatever slowdown the bond market is already whispering about.
The recovery comes but only after the turbulence finishes working through the labor market and after households feel secure enough to take risk again.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Excellent. Two of my favorites follows @GeorgeGammon and @m3_melody https://t.co/QHoF2Em89q
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Excellent. Two of my favorites follows @GeorgeGammon and @m3_melody https://t.co/QHoF2Em89q
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