EndGame Macro
RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
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RT @leadlagreport: You know how I always say we’re fucked?
It’s time to find a way to profit from it.
Might involve the Yen.
And XRP.
tweet
Offshore
Video
EndGame Macro
If your default relationship with yourself is contempt, you’ll sabotage the very life you’re trying to build. Not because the world is cruel, but because an inner voice that constantly undercuts you quietly rewrites your choices…what you apply for, what you attempt, what you tolerate, what you walk away from when it gets hard.
Clinically, this is the boring but brutal part. Your brain treats your self talk like a running set of predictions. If the prediction is “I’m not that person,” you’ll avoid reps, you’ll interpret setbacks as proof, you’ll conserve effort to protect yourself, and you’ll call it realism. Cognitive behavioral therapy didn’t become a cornerstone of modern psychology because affirmations are magical; it did because those automatic thoughts shape mood, stress response, attention, and behavior and behavior compounds.
And this is where people get talent wrong. Sure, there are real differences in temperament and aptitude. But what looks like natural ability from a distance is often just unseen accumulation…the ugly first drafts, the quiet days of studying, the reps nobody clapped for, the discipline to be bad at something long enough to get good. Confidence isn’t a personality trait as much as it’s a pattern of keeping promises to yourself.
Talk yourself into what you want to become. Not with delusion, but with allegiance. Let your inner voice sound like a coach who expects more from you because it believes you can give more. Don’t doubt yourself into a smaller life.
tweet
If your default relationship with yourself is contempt, you’ll sabotage the very life you’re trying to build. Not because the world is cruel, but because an inner voice that constantly undercuts you quietly rewrites your choices…what you apply for, what you attempt, what you tolerate, what you walk away from when it gets hard.
Clinically, this is the boring but brutal part. Your brain treats your self talk like a running set of predictions. If the prediction is “I’m not that person,” you’ll avoid reps, you’ll interpret setbacks as proof, you’ll conserve effort to protect yourself, and you’ll call it realism. Cognitive behavioral therapy didn’t become a cornerstone of modern psychology because affirmations are magical; it did because those automatic thoughts shape mood, stress response, attention, and behavior and behavior compounds.
And this is where people get talent wrong. Sure, there are real differences in temperament and aptitude. But what looks like natural ability from a distance is often just unseen accumulation…the ugly first drafts, the quiet days of studying, the reps nobody clapped for, the discipline to be bad at something long enough to get good. Confidence isn’t a personality trait as much as it’s a pattern of keeping promises to yourself.
Talk yourself into what you want to become. Not with delusion, but with allegiance. Let your inner voice sound like a coach who expects more from you because it believes you can give more. Don’t doubt yourself into a smaller life.
No one is perfect, but if you don't think highly of yourself, you will ruin your life. tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Two charts, one message…Money got expensive, and now the bill is arriving
The first chart, the call money interbank rate is basically the heartbeat of the financial system. It’s the overnight price of dollars between banks. When the Fed tightens, this thing shoots up. When the system starts to feel the strain or the Fed begins easing, it rolls over. Sitting around 4.1% now tells you the max tightening phase is already behind us, and the short end of the market is being walked down.
The second chart, M2 velocity isn’t literally how fast people spend money. It’s a ratio of nominal GDP divided by M2. It rises when economic output grows faster than the money supply, and it falls when people hoard cash or when M2 balloons faster than the economy. What you’re seeing now is velocity recovering from the COVID collapse and then flattening out once policy stayed tight long enough to cool demand.
Why these two lines move together, and why it matters
These charts correlate because they’re both reacting to the same underlying forces of policy, credit creation, and how much risk the private sector is willing to take.
• In 2020, rates went to zero and M2 exploded. People sat on cash, activity lagged, and velocity collapsed.
• In 2022–2024, rates ripped higher while M2 growth slowed. Nominal spending kept going. That combination mechanically pushed velocity up.
• By mid-2024 and into 2025, both charts started flattening and rolling because the cycle shifted…tight money finally did its job, demand cooled, and now funding costs are easing not because everything is fine, but because the economy is losing momentum underneath.
So yes, they’re connected. Velocity isn’t causing the call money rate to fall, and the call money rate isn’t causing velocity to flatten. They’re both responding to the same turning point in the economy.
And here’s what it means for all of us
If rates keep easing and velocity doesn’t pick back up, that usually means cheaper money is meeting a cautious, slowing private sector with more saving, fewer transactions, and weaker economic force behind the scenes. It’s the setup you see when the cycle transitions from inflation heat to growth fatigue, long before the headline data admits it.
tweet
Two charts, one message…Money got expensive, and now the bill is arriving
The first chart, the call money interbank rate is basically the heartbeat of the financial system. It’s the overnight price of dollars between banks. When the Fed tightens, this thing shoots up. When the system starts to feel the strain or the Fed begins easing, it rolls over. Sitting around 4.1% now tells you the max tightening phase is already behind us, and the short end of the market is being walked down.
The second chart, M2 velocity isn’t literally how fast people spend money. It’s a ratio of nominal GDP divided by M2. It rises when economic output grows faster than the money supply, and it falls when people hoard cash or when M2 balloons faster than the economy. What you’re seeing now is velocity recovering from the COVID collapse and then flattening out once policy stayed tight long enough to cool demand.
Why these two lines move together, and why it matters
These charts correlate because they’re both reacting to the same underlying forces of policy, credit creation, and how much risk the private sector is willing to take.
• In 2020, rates went to zero and M2 exploded. People sat on cash, activity lagged, and velocity collapsed.
• In 2022–2024, rates ripped higher while M2 growth slowed. Nominal spending kept going. That combination mechanically pushed velocity up.
• By mid-2024 and into 2025, both charts started flattening and rolling because the cycle shifted…tight money finally did its job, demand cooled, and now funding costs are easing not because everything is fine, but because the economy is losing momentum underneath.
So yes, they’re connected. Velocity isn’t causing the call money rate to fall, and the call money rate isn’t causing velocity to flatten. They’re both responding to the same turning point in the economy.
And here’s what it means for all of us
If rates keep easing and velocity doesn’t pick back up, that usually means cheaper money is meeting a cautious, slowing private sector with more saving, fewer transactions, and weaker economic force behind the scenes. It’s the setup you see when the cycle transitions from inflation heat to growth fatigue, long before the headline data admits it.
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Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
Adobe is accelerating its share buybacks.
They have reduced their share count by 5.6% over the last 12 months.
$ADBE https://t.co/ZdaBO6NmfB
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Adobe is accelerating its share buybacks.
They have reduced their share count by 5.6% over the last 12 months.
$ADBE https://t.co/ZdaBO6NmfB
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Offshore
Video
memenodes
When someone says they are not unemployed, but an early investor for altseason
https://t.co/FUjJAyBujJ
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When someone says they are not unemployed, but an early investor for altseason
https://t.co/FUjJAyBujJ
tweet
Offshore
Video
memenodes
when your last $420 get rugged but at least the stress is gone https://t.co/05XZ1Y3Z7o
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when your last $420 get rugged but at least the stress is gone https://t.co/05XZ1Y3Z7o
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