Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @realroseceline: Thoughts on $NFLX buying $WBD:
$NFLX is buying $WBD for about $83b using mostly cash and a small amount of stock. The deal gives $NFLX the entire Warner Bros studio HBO and major franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Friends and more. $NFLX will keep Warner Bros operating the same way including theatrical releases.
The logic behind the deal is straightforward. $NFLX gets a massive library of proven hits which strengthens the service and gives members more to watch. Creators get more chances to work with top tier IP and scale it globally. Shareholders get more value because stronger content drives more members more engagement and more revenue. $NFLX also expects $2-3b in annual cost savings and says the deal will be accretive by year two.
$WBD shareholders will receive $23.25 in cash and about $4.50 in $NFLX stock for each share depending on where $NFLX trades at closing. Before the deal closes $WBD will spin off its global networks division (CNN, TNT, etc) in Q3 next year. The deal still needs regulatory approval and shareholder approval but both boards have signed off and $NFLX expects to close in 12 to 18 months.
Here is the part most people miss. At $NFLX scale $83b is not the big deal people imagine. Spread across hundreds of millions of subscribers the entire cost can be covered by a small price increase of $1-2 dollars a month over time. $NFLX has raised prices before and almost no one cancels because the value is still great. And when you compare it to buying HBO on its own for around $20 a month getting all of that content plus the entire Warner Bros library for an extra $2 is almost nothing from a consumer perspective.
This is why the headline looks huge but the economics are simple. Scale turns big numbers into manageable ones and $NFLX is operating at a scale very few companies ever reach.
🌹
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RT @realroseceline: Thoughts on $NFLX buying $WBD:
$NFLX is buying $WBD for about $83b using mostly cash and a small amount of stock. The deal gives $NFLX the entire Warner Bros studio HBO and major franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Friends and more. $NFLX will keep Warner Bros operating the same way including theatrical releases.
The logic behind the deal is straightforward. $NFLX gets a massive library of proven hits which strengthens the service and gives members more to watch. Creators get more chances to work with top tier IP and scale it globally. Shareholders get more value because stronger content drives more members more engagement and more revenue. $NFLX also expects $2-3b in annual cost savings and says the deal will be accretive by year two.
$WBD shareholders will receive $23.25 in cash and about $4.50 in $NFLX stock for each share depending on where $NFLX trades at closing. Before the deal closes $WBD will spin off its global networks division (CNN, TNT, etc) in Q3 next year. The deal still needs regulatory approval and shareholder approval but both boards have signed off and $NFLX expects to close in 12 to 18 months.
Here is the part most people miss. At $NFLX scale $83b is not the big deal people imagine. Spread across hundreds of millions of subscribers the entire cost can be covered by a small price increase of $1-2 dollars a month over time. $NFLX has raised prices before and almost no one cancels because the value is still great. And when you compare it to buying HBO on its own for around $20 a month getting all of that content plus the entire Warner Bros library for an extra $2 is almost nothing from a consumer perspective.
This is why the headline looks huge but the economics are simple. Scale turns big numbers into manageable ones and $NFLX is operating at a scale very few companies ever reach.
🌹
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Quiver Quantitative
President Trump was just awarded the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize. https://t.co/d6V6mA6Wmt
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President Trump was just awarded the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize. https://t.co/d6V6mA6Wmt
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EndGame Macro
The Guidance Mirage And Why Corporate Optimism Is Rising While the Economy Quietly Breaks
This chart makes it look like companies are thriving again with more S&P 500 firms raising earnings guidance, climbing back toward levels we saw during periods of real strength. But guidance isn’t the economy. It’s a forecast. And forecasts just like actuarial assumptions are built on models, incentives, and a lot of wishful thinking.
That’s why charts like this can be so deceiving. Companies don’t start with neutral expectations, they start with lowballed numbers they know they can beat. They update guidance against analyst consensus that’s been revised downward all year. And the firms struggling the most usually stop giving guidance altogether, quietly exiting the data set. What’s left is the healthiest slice of the market, not the full picture.
Guidance Also Lags…Badly
The other thing no one mentions is the timing problem. Earnings expectations almost always lag real economic deterioration. In 2008, forward earnings estimates didn’t actually roll over until the summer, just a few weeks before Lehman collapsed even though markets had been breaking down for a year. Analysts stayed optimistic right up until the crisis was unavoidable, and then expectations fell off a cliff after the real damage was already done.
That’s how models work. They extrapolate the recent past. They don’t capture the turn until it’s staring them in the face.
We’re seeing that same dynamic now. Earnings guidance looks fine because management teams are living inside spreadsheets, not inside the consumer credit data or the refinancing math. They’re smoothing out the very bumps the economy is already tripping over.
The Real Economy Doesn’t Look Like This Chart
If you step outside the S&P’s polished reporting cycle, the broader U.S. economy is flashing stress from multiple angles…
• Corporate bankruptcies: Large U.S. bankruptcies are running at their highest pace in 15 years, matching levels from the post Great Financial Crisis.
• Layoffs: Announced layoffs are more than 1.17 million for the year, the most since 2020 led by tech, telecom, retail, and government sector cuts.
• Consumer strain: Household debt is at $18.6 trillion, and delinquencies in auto loans, student loans, and credit cards are all moving higher, especially among younger and subprime borrowers.
• The maturity wall: Roughly $9–12 trillion in government debt and at least $1.8 trillion in commercial debt will need refinancing at much higher rates by the end of 2026. This alone pressures growth and forces the Fed into an easing cycle.
When you look at the full landscape, the idea that companies are raising guidance should feel a little like reading a sunny actuarial projection for a pension fund that’s simultaneously bleeding cash. The numbers may be technically correct, but the assumptions are doing all the lifting.
What This Really Means
The disconnect between rising guidance and falling economic fundamentals is exactly what we saw in the run up to the 2008 collapse. Markets were already rolling over while analysts were still projecting stable earnings. Expectations didn’t adjust until the shock was already happening.
Guidance is a mood. The economy is a balance sheet. And right now, the mood looks better than the math.
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The Guidance Mirage And Why Corporate Optimism Is Rising While the Economy Quietly Breaks
This chart makes it look like companies are thriving again with more S&P 500 firms raising earnings guidance, climbing back toward levels we saw during periods of real strength. But guidance isn’t the economy. It’s a forecast. And forecasts just like actuarial assumptions are built on models, incentives, and a lot of wishful thinking.
That’s why charts like this can be so deceiving. Companies don’t start with neutral expectations, they start with lowballed numbers they know they can beat. They update guidance against analyst consensus that’s been revised downward all year. And the firms struggling the most usually stop giving guidance altogether, quietly exiting the data set. What’s left is the healthiest slice of the market, not the full picture.
Guidance Also Lags…Badly
The other thing no one mentions is the timing problem. Earnings expectations almost always lag real economic deterioration. In 2008, forward earnings estimates didn’t actually roll over until the summer, just a few weeks before Lehman collapsed even though markets had been breaking down for a year. Analysts stayed optimistic right up until the crisis was unavoidable, and then expectations fell off a cliff after the real damage was already done.
That’s how models work. They extrapolate the recent past. They don’t capture the turn until it’s staring them in the face.
We’re seeing that same dynamic now. Earnings guidance looks fine because management teams are living inside spreadsheets, not inside the consumer credit data or the refinancing math. They’re smoothing out the very bumps the economy is already tripping over.
The Real Economy Doesn’t Look Like This Chart
If you step outside the S&P’s polished reporting cycle, the broader U.S. economy is flashing stress from multiple angles…
• Corporate bankruptcies: Large U.S. bankruptcies are running at their highest pace in 15 years, matching levels from the post Great Financial Crisis.
• Layoffs: Announced layoffs are more than 1.17 million for the year, the most since 2020 led by tech, telecom, retail, and government sector cuts.
• Consumer strain: Household debt is at $18.6 trillion, and delinquencies in auto loans, student loans, and credit cards are all moving higher, especially among younger and subprime borrowers.
• The maturity wall: Roughly $9–12 trillion in government debt and at least $1.8 trillion in commercial debt will need refinancing at much higher rates by the end of 2026. This alone pressures growth and forces the Fed into an easing cycle.
When you look at the full landscape, the idea that companies are raising guidance should feel a little like reading a sunny actuarial projection for a pension fund that’s simultaneously bleeding cash. The numbers may be technically correct, but the assumptions are doing all the lifting.
What This Really Means
The disconnect between rising guidance and falling economic fundamentals is exactly what we saw in the run up to the 2008 collapse. Markets were already rolling over while analysts were still projecting stable earnings. Expectations didn’t adjust until the shock was already happening.
Guidance is a mood. The economy is a balance sheet. And right now, the mood looks better than the math.
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: Stop complaining about the $PYPL CFO telling the truth.
Weakness is here for longer. The mistake isn't on them for being honest; it's on us for selecting a weaker stock than we thought.
Accept the truth and move on. Don't blame it on them.
Focus on your next move. That is all that matters.
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RT @WealthyReadings: Stop complaining about the $PYPL CFO telling the truth.
Weakness is here for longer. The mistake isn't on them for being honest; it's on us for selecting a weaker stock than we thought.
Accept the truth and move on. Don't blame it on them.
Focus on your next move. That is all that matters.
tweet
Offshore
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: $ALAB is setting up to be one of the major winners of the next AI narrative: optimization.
The bulk of compute has already been deployed. The next frontier isn’t “more GPUs”, it’s better use of the hardware we have and will have, both on software & hardware.
Hardware optimization is what $ALAB does.
They build the invisible backbone of AI data centers, systems that move data faster, smoother and with far less waste. They eliminate the bottlenecks that slow AI down.
Why this matters:
🔹 Every AI giant is now obsessed with efficiency, energy is capped and data centers can’t scale fast enough so they need to optimize.
🔹 Bigger models + more demand = more data movement = more & larger bottlenecks.
🔹 Every second of compute lost or non optimized costs companies more than the hardware to fix that situation.
🔹 The future is about squeezing every ounce of performance out of existing infrastructure
That's what $ALAB proposes.
As AI continues to scale, the next winners won’t be the companies selling volume anymore, they’ll be the ones unlocking above average optimization.
The leap from “great” to “perfect” is where the next trillion-dollar value will be created. And only a few specialized players can deliver that.
$ALAB might be one of the biggest opportunities in that narrative.
Details below 👇
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RT @WealthyReadings: $ALAB is setting up to be one of the major winners of the next AI narrative: optimization.
The bulk of compute has already been deployed. The next frontier isn’t “more GPUs”, it’s better use of the hardware we have and will have, both on software & hardware.
Hardware optimization is what $ALAB does.
They build the invisible backbone of AI data centers, systems that move data faster, smoother and with far less waste. They eliminate the bottlenecks that slow AI down.
Why this matters:
🔹 Every AI giant is now obsessed with efficiency, energy is capped and data centers can’t scale fast enough so they need to optimize.
🔹 Bigger models + more demand = more data movement = more & larger bottlenecks.
🔹 Every second of compute lost or non optimized costs companies more than the hardware to fix that situation.
🔹 The future is about squeezing every ounce of performance out of existing infrastructure
That's what $ALAB proposes.
As AI continues to scale, the next winners won’t be the companies selling volume anymore, they’ll be the ones unlocking above average optimization.
The leap from “great” to “perfect” is where the next trillion-dollar value will be created. And only a few specialized players can deliver that.
$ALAB might be one of the biggest opportunities in that narrative.
Details below 👇
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memenodes
Family:
you bought bitcoin are you dumb, it's a scam
Meanwhile your favorite uncle : https://t.co/2CfJ4OOhnz
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Family:
you bought bitcoin are you dumb, it's a scam
Meanwhile your favorite uncle : https://t.co/2CfJ4OOhnz
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memenodes
Me as the cool uncle with no kids & wife doing whatever I want https://t.co/0nkIIx2uOU
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Me as the cool uncle with no kids & wife doing whatever I want https://t.co/0nkIIx2uOU
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/CoJMQYx2FS
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https://t.co/CoJMQYx2FS
Recent Layoff Announcements:
1. US Government: 307,000 employees
2. UPS: 48,000 employees
3. Amazon: Up to 30,000 employees
4. Intel: 24,000 employees
5. Nestle: 16,000 employees
6. Verizon: 15,000 employees
7. Accenture: 11,000 employees
8. Ford: 11,000 employees
9. Novo Nordisk: 9,000 employees
10. Microsoft: 7,000 employees
11. PwC: 5,600 employees
12. Salesforce: 4,000 employees
13. IBM: 2,700 employees
14. American Airlines: 2,700 employees
15. Paramount: 2,000 employees
16. Target: 1,800 employees
17. General Motors: 1,500 employees
18. Applied Materials: 1,444 employees
19. Kroger: 1,000 employees
20. Meta: 600 employees
Where will all these people go? tweet