Offshore
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WealthyReadings
934 views. Six months ago.
Since, $DG is up 44% and $DLTR 45%.
No one cared. Because they aren't the next big thing.
But money isn't always made on the next big thing.
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934 views. Six months ago.
Since, $DG is up 44% and $DLTR 45%.
No one cared. Because they aren't the next big thing.
But money isn't always made on the next big thing.
$DG & $DLTR are consumer discretionary business & received lots of liquidity lately.
Why? Fundamentals are getting better? Not really.
The market anticipates they will as uncertainty & fears a recession grows.
Price action is starting to move, things are starting to shape.
The market is a machine to anticipate. Keep an eye on where liquidity goes. tweet
AkhenOsiris
$U
Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight, target to $51 from $42
"We upgrade Unity to O/W on 1) favorable industry backdrop in 2026 and 2) direct exposure to the direct payments migration w/'Unity Commerce'. We raise FY26 grow segment rev growth to +17% y/y from +14% prior on faster industry growth. Unity announced 'Unity Commerce' 10/22 to facilitate the transition from app store to direct payments. We see U as well positioned vs. incumbents Xsolla, Appcharge & Aghanim. Now modeling $55M 2027 Unity Commerce revs, 8% upside vs our prior Create segment revs."
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$U
Wells Fargo Upgrades to Overweight, target to $51 from $42
"We upgrade Unity to O/W on 1) favorable industry backdrop in 2026 and 2) direct exposure to the direct payments migration w/'Unity Commerce'. We raise FY26 grow segment rev growth to +17% y/y from +14% prior on faster industry growth. Unity announced 'Unity Commerce' 10/22 to facilitate the transition from app store to direct payments. We see U as well positioned vs. incumbents Xsolla, Appcharge & Aghanim. Now modeling $55M 2027 Unity Commerce revs, 8% upside vs our prior Create segment revs."
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AkhenOsiris
OpenAI:
Newcomer:
That brings us back to Altman’s “Code Red.”
First off, while the alarm came in a company-wide memo that wasn’t officially announced publicly, we can stipulate that the “leak” of the memo, if not necessarily orchestrated, was almost certainly part of the plan. A media maestro like Altman surely knew that a memo going out to thousands of employees with charged language like “Code Red” was all but guaranteed to make its way to the press.
Publicizing a panicked internal reaction to a competitor’s new product might seem like a counter-intuitive way to maintain your reputation as the industry leader.
Yet if history is a guide there’s a good chance OpenAI’s next model will match or surpass Google. Now, when it’s launched, Altman will be able to declare “Code Red” a smashing success, gaining some extra publicity and coming across as a decisive leader who did the tough things when it mattered and put his company back on top.
An even simpler dynamic is likely part of the mix too. The “Code Red” memo kept OpenAI in the headlines, and being in the headlines is a core competency of the company and its CEO (and we don’t mean that sarcastically). Altman’s brilliant leveraging of the company’s first-mover advantage to build a global brand overnight and become the face of the AI revolution has itself been a big contributor to the unprecedented uptake of ChatGPT.
If what you’re saying internally to your troops about a competitive challenge is front-page news in The Wall Street Journal, one of the messages there is that you’re the market leader. Why else would anyone care?
tweet
OpenAI:
Newcomer:
That brings us back to Altman’s “Code Red.”
First off, while the alarm came in a company-wide memo that wasn’t officially announced publicly, we can stipulate that the “leak” of the memo, if not necessarily orchestrated, was almost certainly part of the plan. A media maestro like Altman surely knew that a memo going out to thousands of employees with charged language like “Code Red” was all but guaranteed to make its way to the press.
Publicizing a panicked internal reaction to a competitor’s new product might seem like a counter-intuitive way to maintain your reputation as the industry leader.
Yet if history is a guide there’s a good chance OpenAI’s next model will match or surpass Google. Now, when it’s launched, Altman will be able to declare “Code Red” a smashing success, gaining some extra publicity and coming across as a decisive leader who did the tough things when it mattered and put his company back on top.
An even simpler dynamic is likely part of the mix too. The “Code Red” memo kept OpenAI in the headlines, and being in the headlines is a core competency of the company and its CEO (and we don’t mean that sarcastically). Altman’s brilliant leveraging of the company’s first-mover advantage to build a global brand overnight and become the face of the AI revolution has itself been a big contributor to the unprecedented uptake of ChatGPT.
If what you’re saying internally to your troops about a competitive challenge is front-page news in The Wall Street Journal, one of the messages there is that you’re the market leader. Why else would anyone care?
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Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
Inflation Expectations Are Falling But It’s the Economy Signaling Trouble, Not the Fed Winning
The first thing these charts reveal is how deeply inflation expectations have become tied to politics. Republicans are sitting near 1–2%, Democrats are still up around 5%, and independents fall somewhere in between. When a gap this wide opens up, you’re not looking at a pure read on the economy anymore, you’re looking at how different groups feel about the country, the administration, and the future. Inflation becomes a proxy for trust, frustration, or optimism depending on who you ask.
But the more interesting part is the direction. Democratic expectations have fallen sharply from that massive spike earlier in the year, and that move lines up much more neatly with the cooling we’re seeing in the real economy than with any sudden burst of confidence in the Fed. When hiring slows, when layoffs creep higher, when people pull back on spending expectations almost always drift lower. Not because prices magically stabilize, but because households sense the slowdown before the data fully shows it.
Markets vs. Households: Two Very Different Worlds
Then you look at the longer term expectations, and the contrast is even sharper. Market based measures like the 5y inflation swap, the NY Fed’s 5 year ahead number are sitting calmly in the mid 2s to around 3%. Meanwhile, the Michigan Democrat 5–10 year series is still elevated, even after the pullback. That’s not a forecast gap. That’s a worldview gap. Markets focus on policy, growth, and supply/demand mechanics. People focus on lived experience like rising insurance costs, healthcare bills, rent that never goes down.
So when expectations fall, the question isn’t just is inflation improving? It’s why are people changing their minds?
And my read is simple, the drop reflects weakening economic momentum more than improving pricing dynamics. Households are adjusting expectations because they’re bracing for a softer environment, not celebrating a return to stability.
If that trend continues and all the leading indicators suggest it will then expectations will keep drifting down. Not because the Fed nailed the landing, but because the economy is losing altitude.
tweet
Inflation Expectations Are Falling But It’s the Economy Signaling Trouble, Not the Fed Winning
The first thing these charts reveal is how deeply inflation expectations have become tied to politics. Republicans are sitting near 1–2%, Democrats are still up around 5%, and independents fall somewhere in between. When a gap this wide opens up, you’re not looking at a pure read on the economy anymore, you’re looking at how different groups feel about the country, the administration, and the future. Inflation becomes a proxy for trust, frustration, or optimism depending on who you ask.
But the more interesting part is the direction. Democratic expectations have fallen sharply from that massive spike earlier in the year, and that move lines up much more neatly with the cooling we’re seeing in the real economy than with any sudden burst of confidence in the Fed. When hiring slows, when layoffs creep higher, when people pull back on spending expectations almost always drift lower. Not because prices magically stabilize, but because households sense the slowdown before the data fully shows it.
Markets vs. Households: Two Very Different Worlds
Then you look at the longer term expectations, and the contrast is even sharper. Market based measures like the 5y inflation swap, the NY Fed’s 5 year ahead number are sitting calmly in the mid 2s to around 3%. Meanwhile, the Michigan Democrat 5–10 year series is still elevated, even after the pullback. That’s not a forecast gap. That’s a worldview gap. Markets focus on policy, growth, and supply/demand mechanics. People focus on lived experience like rising insurance costs, healthcare bills, rent that never goes down.
So when expectations fall, the question isn’t just is inflation improving? It’s why are people changing their minds?
And my read is simple, the drop reflects weakening economic momentum more than improving pricing dynamics. Households are adjusting expectations because they’re bracing for a softer environment, not celebrating a return to stability.
If that trend continues and all the leading indicators suggest it will then expectations will keep drifting down. Not because the Fed nailed the landing, but because the economy is losing altitude.
Democrat 1-Yr inflation expectations down from 9.4% in May to 5.2% and plunging, much more to go https://t.co/CnebUdTn9c tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @realroseceline: Thoughts on $NFLX buying $WBD:
$NFLX is buying $WBD for about $83b using mostly cash and a small amount of stock. The deal gives $NFLX the entire Warner Bros studio HBO and major franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Friends and more. $NFLX will keep Warner Bros operating the same way including theatrical releases.
The logic behind the deal is straightforward. $NFLX gets a massive library of proven hits which strengthens the service and gives members more to watch. Creators get more chances to work with top tier IP and scale it globally. Shareholders get more value because stronger content drives more members more engagement and more revenue. $NFLX also expects $2-3b in annual cost savings and says the deal will be accretive by year two.
$WBD shareholders will receive $23.25 in cash and about $4.50 in $NFLX stock for each share depending on where $NFLX trades at closing. Before the deal closes $WBD will spin off its global networks division (CNN, TNT, etc) in Q3 next year. The deal still needs regulatory approval and shareholder approval but both boards have signed off and $NFLX expects to close in 12 to 18 months.
Here is the part most people miss. At $NFLX scale $83b is not the big deal people imagine. Spread across hundreds of millions of subscribers the entire cost can be covered by a small price increase of $1-2 dollars a month over time. $NFLX has raised prices before and almost no one cancels because the value is still great. And when you compare it to buying HBO on its own for around $20 a month getting all of that content plus the entire Warner Bros library for an extra $2 is almost nothing from a consumer perspective.
This is why the headline looks huge but the economics are simple. Scale turns big numbers into manageable ones and $NFLX is operating at a scale very few companies ever reach.
🌹
tweet
RT @realroseceline: Thoughts on $NFLX buying $WBD:
$NFLX is buying $WBD for about $83b using mostly cash and a small amount of stock. The deal gives $NFLX the entire Warner Bros studio HBO and major franchises like Game of Thrones, Harry Potter, Friends and more. $NFLX will keep Warner Bros operating the same way including theatrical releases.
The logic behind the deal is straightforward. $NFLX gets a massive library of proven hits which strengthens the service and gives members more to watch. Creators get more chances to work with top tier IP and scale it globally. Shareholders get more value because stronger content drives more members more engagement and more revenue. $NFLX also expects $2-3b in annual cost savings and says the deal will be accretive by year two.
$WBD shareholders will receive $23.25 in cash and about $4.50 in $NFLX stock for each share depending on where $NFLX trades at closing. Before the deal closes $WBD will spin off its global networks division (CNN, TNT, etc) in Q3 next year. The deal still needs regulatory approval and shareholder approval but both boards have signed off and $NFLX expects to close in 12 to 18 months.
Here is the part most people miss. At $NFLX scale $83b is not the big deal people imagine. Spread across hundreds of millions of subscribers the entire cost can be covered by a small price increase of $1-2 dollars a month over time. $NFLX has raised prices before and almost no one cancels because the value is still great. And when you compare it to buying HBO on its own for around $20 a month getting all of that content plus the entire Warner Bros library for an extra $2 is almost nothing from a consumer perspective.
This is why the headline looks huge but the economics are simple. Scale turns big numbers into manageable ones and $NFLX is operating at a scale very few companies ever reach.
🌹
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Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
President Trump was just awarded the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize. https://t.co/d6V6mA6Wmt
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President Trump was just awarded the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize. https://t.co/d6V6mA6Wmt
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