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EndGame Macro
The Bank of England Knows What’s Coming
If you read this Financial Stability Report the way they want you to read it, everything looks steady. The Bank of England keeps repeating the same familiar phrases that they are resilient, well capitalized with manageable risks. It’s the usual central bank posture…calm voice, steady hands, nothing to see here.
But once you slow down and sit with the details, you start to feel the tension in the edges. The report is built around reassurance, yet the numbers, the caveats, and the stress scenarios tell a quieter, more anxious story. They’re not panicking but they’re not relaxed either. And they’re definitely not as confident as the headline messaging suggests.
The Quiet Worry They Have About the Dollar
The dollar sections are where their guard slips. They talk about reliance on dollar funding as if it’s just a fact of life, but the charts make it clear that access to dollar liquidity is getting harder, not easier. The cost of hedging dollars is rising. Short term FX swap funding is growing more volatile. And the maturities are stacking up in a way that leaves UK institutions exposed if global conditions tighten even a little.
They include a scenario where dollar markets seize up and funding disappears, hedging costs spike, rollover risk climbs and they present it almost like a thought experiment. But central banks don’t model scenarios they aren’t worried about. This is the kind of thing you prepare for when you know the global plumbing can clog in an instant. The Bank remembers 2008. It remembers March 2020. It remembers September 2022 when the gilt market broke in broad daylight. These what if sections are not academic; they’re preparation.
And the fact that the UK sits outside the U.S. funding core makes this more than a theoretical concern. When the dollar tightens, the UK feels it before almost anyone.
The Contradictions They Don’t Acknowledge Out Loud
The Bank says households are resilient, but the debt service ratios show a steady climb as mortgages reprice into higher rates. That’s pressure slowly building.
They say corporate risks are contained, but the refinancing wall they describe is massive, and margins are being squeezed by higher borrowing costs across whole sectors.
They say banks are well capitalized, but in the same breath they highlight rising wholesale funding needs, shorter maturities, and sensitivity to global liquidity swings. Those aren’t the markers of a system sitting comfortably.
You can feel the push pull everywhere. Reassurance at the top of the paragraph, warning signs in the footnotes. Calm language next to charts that suggest the opposite. It’s the tone of an institution that knows the surface looks fine, but the underlying momentum is shifting the wrong way.
My Read
This report reads like an institution trying to hold two truths at the same time, that the system is stable right now, but the ground beneath it is softer than anyone wants to admit. The risks are cumulative. Higher rates slowly grinding households. Corporate debt rolling into a tougher environment. Banks leaning more on short term funding. And a global dollar system that’s turning more unpredictable, right as the UK needs it the most.
They’re not forecasting a crisis. But they are quietly preparing for one. And once you read past the official tone, it becomes clear that they know how quickly being fine can turn into them being exposed when global liquidity tightens.
What I see in this report is a central bank bracing for a world that’s getting harder to navigate.
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The Bank of England Knows What’s Coming
If you read this Financial Stability Report the way they want you to read it, everything looks steady. The Bank of England keeps repeating the same familiar phrases that they are resilient, well capitalized with manageable risks. It’s the usual central bank posture…calm voice, steady hands, nothing to see here.
But once you slow down and sit with the details, you start to feel the tension in the edges. The report is built around reassurance, yet the numbers, the caveats, and the stress scenarios tell a quieter, more anxious story. They’re not panicking but they’re not relaxed either. And they’re definitely not as confident as the headline messaging suggests.
The Quiet Worry They Have About the Dollar
The dollar sections are where their guard slips. They talk about reliance on dollar funding as if it’s just a fact of life, but the charts make it clear that access to dollar liquidity is getting harder, not easier. The cost of hedging dollars is rising. Short term FX swap funding is growing more volatile. And the maturities are stacking up in a way that leaves UK institutions exposed if global conditions tighten even a little.
They include a scenario where dollar markets seize up and funding disappears, hedging costs spike, rollover risk climbs and they present it almost like a thought experiment. But central banks don’t model scenarios they aren’t worried about. This is the kind of thing you prepare for when you know the global plumbing can clog in an instant. The Bank remembers 2008. It remembers March 2020. It remembers September 2022 when the gilt market broke in broad daylight. These what if sections are not academic; they’re preparation.
And the fact that the UK sits outside the U.S. funding core makes this more than a theoretical concern. When the dollar tightens, the UK feels it before almost anyone.
The Contradictions They Don’t Acknowledge Out Loud
The Bank says households are resilient, but the debt service ratios show a steady climb as mortgages reprice into higher rates. That’s pressure slowly building.
They say corporate risks are contained, but the refinancing wall they describe is massive, and margins are being squeezed by higher borrowing costs across whole sectors.
They say banks are well capitalized, but in the same breath they highlight rising wholesale funding needs, shorter maturities, and sensitivity to global liquidity swings. Those aren’t the markers of a system sitting comfortably.
You can feel the push pull everywhere. Reassurance at the top of the paragraph, warning signs in the footnotes. Calm language next to charts that suggest the opposite. It’s the tone of an institution that knows the surface looks fine, but the underlying momentum is shifting the wrong way.
My Read
This report reads like an institution trying to hold two truths at the same time, that the system is stable right now, but the ground beneath it is softer than anyone wants to admit. The risks are cumulative. Higher rates slowly grinding households. Corporate debt rolling into a tougher environment. Banks leaning more on short term funding. And a global dollar system that’s turning more unpredictable, right as the UK needs it the most.
They’re not forecasting a crisis. But they are quietly preparing for one. And once you read past the official tone, it becomes clear that they know how quickly being fine can turn into them being exposed when global liquidity tightens.
What I see in this report is a central bank bracing for a world that’s getting harder to navigate.
Our Financial Stability Report looks at the risks in our financial system and what we are doing to ensure households and businesses can rely on it.
🔗 Read here:
https://t.co/VA8VI98UjL https://t.co/mZIHWfpcvj tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks & CAGR Potential Based on 2028 EPS Est & Reasonable Multiples 💵
1. $V 12% | 27x
2. $SPGI 12% | 28x
3. $MSFT 12% | 29x
4. $NVDA 13% | 25x
5. $ABNB 13% | 26x
6. $MA 13% | 30x
7. $BKNG 14% | 21x
8. $ICE 14% | 25x
9. $AMZN 15% | 28x
10. $MELI 17% | 33x
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10 Quality Stocks & CAGR Potential Based on 2028 EPS Est & Reasonable Multiples 💵
1. $V 12% | 27x
2. $SPGI 12% | 28x
3. $MSFT 12% | 29x
4. $NVDA 13% | 25x
5. $ABNB 13% | 26x
6. $MA 13% | 30x
7. $BKNG 14% | 21x
8. $ICE 14% | 25x
9. $AMZN 15% | 28x
10. $MELI 17% | 33x
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Offshore
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Wasteland Capital
$NFLX announces it won the $WBD auction at $27.75 per share, +260% higher than Warner traded in April.
Huge win for shareholders, a loss for everyone else. Subscription price increases of 100%+ incoming! Plus HBO will now be 95% garbage slop.
I hope this sh*t gets blocked. https://t.co/zFgGnsYUOR
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$NFLX announces it won the $WBD auction at $27.75 per share, +260% higher than Warner traded in April.
Huge win for shareholders, a loss for everyone else. Subscription price increases of 100%+ incoming! Plus HBO will now be 95% garbage slop.
I hope this sh*t gets blocked. https://t.co/zFgGnsYUOR
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memenodes
hardwork beats talent until generational wealth walks in like a final boss https://t.co/Cy22avtI7u
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hardwork beats talent until generational wealth walks in like a final boss https://t.co/Cy22avtI7u
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EndGame Macro
The Day Netflix Became the New Hollywood
Netflix is buying Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion. They are not buying all of WBD, it’s taking the crown jewels…Warner Bros. studios, HBO, HBO Max, DC, and the entire premium content engine. The old school cable networks, the legacy bundle, the melting ice cube? Those get spun off into a separate public company before the deal closes. Netflix gets the future. Someone else gets the past.
Why Now And Why This Price
The timing says everything. Streaming is no longer a land grab, it’s consolidation season. Growth has slowed, costs have ballooned, and only a few players have the balance sheet and global scale to survive. Netflix doesn’t want to spend the next decade renting iconic IP when it could own it outright. And Warner, despite having world class content, has been dragged down by debt, cord cutting, and management resets. One side needed a buyer. The other needed a moat.
Netflix can afford to pay a premium because its stock is one of the strongest currencies left in media. And WBD shareholders taking part of the deal in Netflix shares tells you they believe Netflix and not Warner is the winning platform going forward.
What This Deal Really Signals
This is the formation of a cultural superpower. One company now controls the most global streaming distribution and some of the most valuable content libraries on earth. That’s why regulators will swarm this, not because the deal is strange, but because it’s logical. When industries mature, they consolidate. And when they consolidate, power concentrates.
Netflix just moved from being a platform… to being the new Hollywood.
tweet
The Day Netflix Became the New Hollywood
Netflix is buying Warner Bros. Discovery for $72 billion. They are not buying all of WBD, it’s taking the crown jewels…Warner Bros. studios, HBO, HBO Max, DC, and the entire premium content engine. The old school cable networks, the legacy bundle, the melting ice cube? Those get spun off into a separate public company before the deal closes. Netflix gets the future. Someone else gets the past.
Why Now And Why This Price
The timing says everything. Streaming is no longer a land grab, it’s consolidation season. Growth has slowed, costs have ballooned, and only a few players have the balance sheet and global scale to survive. Netflix doesn’t want to spend the next decade renting iconic IP when it could own it outright. And Warner, despite having world class content, has been dragged down by debt, cord cutting, and management resets. One side needed a buyer. The other needed a moat.
Netflix can afford to pay a premium because its stock is one of the strongest currencies left in media. And WBD shareholders taking part of the deal in Netflix shares tells you they believe Netflix and not Warner is the winning platform going forward.
What This Deal Really Signals
This is the formation of a cultural superpower. One company now controls the most global streaming distribution and some of the most valuable content libraries on earth. That’s why regulators will swarm this, not because the deal is strange, but because it’s logical. When industries mature, they consolidate. And when they consolidate, power concentrates.
Netflix just moved from being a platform… to being the new Hollywood.
Today, Netflix announced our acquisition of Warner Bros. Together, we’ll define the next century of storytelling, creating an extraordinary entertainment offering for audiences everywhere. https://t.co/rXPFMNIs1A https://t.co/0pdsMUEob8 tweet
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WealthyReadings
RT @WealthySwings: $LULU is breaking out a three months breakout after a 12 month downtrend which pushed the stock to its lowest multiples ever.
Not to ignore. https://t.co/CNbHpEx7ZN
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RT @WealthySwings: $LULU is breaking out a three months breakout after a 12 month downtrend which pushed the stock to its lowest multiples ever.
Not to ignore. https://t.co/CNbHpEx7ZN
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