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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Emily Randall has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Now at 15 signatures. https://t.co/uOHtcF3KNy
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JUST IN: Representative Emily Randall has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
Now at 15 signatures. https://t.co/uOHtcF3KNy
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Offshore
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Quartr
If you find yourself going deep on how great companies operate, we want you.
Join us to build Edge into the leading source for business stories. https://t.co/ecY7dIJo6U
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If you find yourself going deep on how great companies operate, we want you.
Join us to build Edge into the leading source for business stories. https://t.co/ecY7dIJo6U
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EndGame Macro
The Challenger Report: Behind the Headlines, The Labor Market Is Losing Altitude
November’s layoff number looks calmer at first glance: 71,321 cuts, far below October’s spike. But the moment you zoom out, the mood shifts. That 71k is still up 24% from last year, still the highest November since 2022, and one of the only Novembers since 2008 to break above 70,000.
Healthy late year labor markets don’t behave this way. Companies don’t trim into the holidays unless they’re bracing for slower demand. Even the report itself notes how rare this threshold is outside recessionary chapters. The monthly drop matters but the level matters more.
And the level says the labor market isn’t easing. It’s tightening.
The real signal is the hiring drought
Layoffs tell you how companies react. Hiring tells you what they believe. And this report makes that belief painfully clear that the planned hires through November are down 35%, the lowest since 2010. Seasonal hiring is also at its lowest level on record, and Challenger found no new seasonal hiring plans in November.
That’s the part you can’t spin. When businesses feel confident, they hire ahead of demand. When they’re unsure, they pause. And pauses like this usually show up months before the broader economy slows. It’s the first real sign the engine is losing torque.
You see the same tone in the sectors blinking first. Retail layoffs are up 139%, tied to softening demand and tariff uncertainty. Services, normally the stabilizer more than doubled their cuts from October.
It isn’t collapse. It’s drift. Drift is quieter, and more telling.
Why the policy layoffs narrative doesn’t actually comfort me
A huge portion of this year’s cuts are tied to government restructuring. DOGE related actions total nearly 294,000, with another 20,976 coming from downstream funding losses.
At first glance, that softens the signal. It gives people an easy explanation that this isn’t economic weakness, it’s just government adjustments. But the effect on the real economy is the same. A contractor who loses funding still spends less. A nonprofit cutting staff still removes demand. These layoffs ripple outward the same way cyclical cuts do.
So instead of invalidating recession risk, DOGE actually amplifies it by tightening labor conditions in the very sectors that support local economies.
What this report is really saying about where things are heading
Taken together, the data doesn’t look like an economy preparing for another year of solid growth. It looks like one that’s bracing. Restructuring is high, hiring is low, demand facing industries are cutting early, and the cumulative layoff count of 1.17 million through November sits right in the range of past recession years.
This doesn’t feel like a sudden break. It feels like a slow turn, a labor market that’s no longer absorbing shocks, but starting to transmit them. Companies aren’t panicking; they’re preparing. Households aren’t collapsing; they’re hesitating. And hesitation is usually the first real sign the cycle is shifting.
My View
The economy hasn’t crashed, but it’s no longer climbing. It’s drifting into a slower, more fragile 2026. And unless hiring rebounds early next year, the conversation moves from soft landing to recession almost automatically not because something dramatic happened, but because the ground quietly shifted underneath us.
tweet
The Challenger Report: Behind the Headlines, The Labor Market Is Losing Altitude
November’s layoff number looks calmer at first glance: 71,321 cuts, far below October’s spike. But the moment you zoom out, the mood shifts. That 71k is still up 24% from last year, still the highest November since 2022, and one of the only Novembers since 2008 to break above 70,000.
Healthy late year labor markets don’t behave this way. Companies don’t trim into the holidays unless they’re bracing for slower demand. Even the report itself notes how rare this threshold is outside recessionary chapters. The monthly drop matters but the level matters more.
And the level says the labor market isn’t easing. It’s tightening.
The real signal is the hiring drought
Layoffs tell you how companies react. Hiring tells you what they believe. And this report makes that belief painfully clear that the planned hires through November are down 35%, the lowest since 2010. Seasonal hiring is also at its lowest level on record, and Challenger found no new seasonal hiring plans in November.
That’s the part you can’t spin. When businesses feel confident, they hire ahead of demand. When they’re unsure, they pause. And pauses like this usually show up months before the broader economy slows. It’s the first real sign the engine is losing torque.
You see the same tone in the sectors blinking first. Retail layoffs are up 139%, tied to softening demand and tariff uncertainty. Services, normally the stabilizer more than doubled their cuts from October.
It isn’t collapse. It’s drift. Drift is quieter, and more telling.
Why the policy layoffs narrative doesn’t actually comfort me
A huge portion of this year’s cuts are tied to government restructuring. DOGE related actions total nearly 294,000, with another 20,976 coming from downstream funding losses.
At first glance, that softens the signal. It gives people an easy explanation that this isn’t economic weakness, it’s just government adjustments. But the effect on the real economy is the same. A contractor who loses funding still spends less. A nonprofit cutting staff still removes demand. These layoffs ripple outward the same way cyclical cuts do.
So instead of invalidating recession risk, DOGE actually amplifies it by tightening labor conditions in the very sectors that support local economies.
What this report is really saying about where things are heading
Taken together, the data doesn’t look like an economy preparing for another year of solid growth. It looks like one that’s bracing. Restructuring is high, hiring is low, demand facing industries are cutting early, and the cumulative layoff count of 1.17 million through November sits right in the range of past recession years.
This doesn’t feel like a sudden break. It feels like a slow turn, a labor market that’s no longer absorbing shocks, but starting to transmit them. Companies aren’t panicking; they’re preparing. Households aren’t collapsing; they’re hesitating. And hesitation is usually the first real sign the cycle is shifting.
My View
The economy hasn’t crashed, but it’s no longer climbing. It’s drifting into a slower, more fragile 2026. And unless hiring rebounds early next year, the conversation moves from soft landing to recession almost automatically not because something dramatic happened, but because the ground quietly shifted underneath us.
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WealthyReadings
"we are talking about significant survival difference, significant improvement in post-transplant complication rate."
"... based on 9,000 livers we have done, we are convinced that it should be malpractice if the livers are not put on the OCS"
- Waleed Hassanein, CEO $TMDX
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"we are talking about significant survival difference, significant improvement in post-transplant complication rate."
"... based on 9,000 livers we have done, we are convinced that it should be malpractice if the livers are not put on the OCS"
- Waleed Hassanein, CEO $TMDX
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WealthyReadings
"The 10,000 is, as far as we’re concerned, something we are highly confident that we will achieve by 2028."
My valuation based on this transplant volume target would bring $TMDX ~$295 at a 9x P/S for a 26% CAGR by FY28.
And Waleed tells me this is the floor. Not the ceiling.
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"The 10,000 is, as far as we’re concerned, something we are highly confident that we will achieve by 2028."
My valuation based on this transplant volume target would bring $TMDX ~$295 at a 9x P/S for a 26% CAGR by FY28.
And Waleed tells me this is the floor. Not the ceiling.
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Fiscal.ai
Apple v. NVIDIA
Which would you rather own at current prices?
Forward EV/EBIT:
$AAPL 28.9x
$NVDA 21.6x https://t.co/syaYxqk0HD
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Apple v. NVIDIA
Which would you rather own at current prices?
Forward EV/EBIT:
$AAPL 28.9x
$NVDA 21.6x https://t.co/syaYxqk0HD
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
Senator Josh Hawley has proposed that healthcare spending be deducted from taxes. https://t.co/2IefiUGPBq
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Senator Josh Hawley has proposed that healthcare spending be deducted from taxes. https://t.co/2IefiUGPBq
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WealthyReadings
$PATH is up 37% since that post.
And no one said thank you.
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$PATH is up 37% since that post.
And no one said thank you.
Finished looking into $PATH: I’m not convinced, mainly due to ARR dollar growth deceleration.
I understand the bull case. But until the data backs it up, I’ll stay out.
That said, $PATH has one of the best chart on the market and reports next week.
Now onto $ZETA. Which one should I check next? tweet