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App Economy Insights
$CRM 'Platform, Slack & Other' is slowly becoming the largest segment at Salesforce. https://t.co/Ct8QQj6ObZ
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$CRM 'Platform, Slack & Other' is slowly becoming the largest segment at Salesforce. https://t.co/Ct8QQj6ObZ
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Data Centers Are Growing Faster Than the Grid Can Keep Up
This is the realization that the original forecasts were way too conservative. The dashed line was the old BloombergNEF estimate from early 2025. The solid bars are the new one, and the gap between them is the story.
Data center power demand doesn’t rise a little. It ramps like a new industrial sector being built in real time. By the mid 2030s, we’re talking about power needs that rival the output of dozens of major power plants. And this isn’t like air conditioning or heating, where usage spikes and drops. Data centers are more like factories that barely sleep…high, steady, always on load.
That means the grid can’t just produce more energy over a year. It needs to deliver instantaneous power reliably, 24/7, to highly concentrated clusters. That’s the kind of demand that strains transformers, substations, transmission lines, and local generation, not just total supply.
Why PJM is the punchline
Zerohedge’s “Good luck PJM” line isn’t random. PJM covers Northern Virginia, basically the epicenter of global server infrastructure. Once a region becomes the hub for data centers, everything reinforces itself: latency advantages, fiber density, construction talent, existing supply chains.
But data centers can be built fast. Transmission upgrades can’t. New substations, transformer capacity, new gas lines, and regional planning take years. In some cases, nearly a decade. That gap is the real issue. It’s not that PJM can’t power these things, it’s that the load is growing faster than the infrastructure that feeds it.
When you get that mismatch, the pressure doesn’t show up evenly. It shows up as interconnection queues stretching into the 2030s, local bottlenecks, and political fights about who pays for upgrades and who gets priority access.
My View
The problem isn’t that AI will break the grid. The problem is that AI growth moves at tech speed and the grid moves at utility speed. The first stress points won’t be rolling blackouts, they’ll be permitting delays, transformer shortages, and regions quietly telling data center developers not here and not yet.
Over time, this demand reshapes the map. New hubs form where power is cheap, easy to build, or politically welcomed, places like ERCOT, MISO, and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, regions like PJM will be forced into hard choices about prioritizing reliability for households versus supporting industrial scale cloud demand.
This chart is predicting constraint. And the regions that figure out how to deliver reliable, scalable power the fastest will end up owning the next wave of AI growth.
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Data Centers Are Growing Faster Than the Grid Can Keep Up
This is the realization that the original forecasts were way too conservative. The dashed line was the old BloombergNEF estimate from early 2025. The solid bars are the new one, and the gap between them is the story.
Data center power demand doesn’t rise a little. It ramps like a new industrial sector being built in real time. By the mid 2030s, we’re talking about power needs that rival the output of dozens of major power plants. And this isn’t like air conditioning or heating, where usage spikes and drops. Data centers are more like factories that barely sleep…high, steady, always on load.
That means the grid can’t just produce more energy over a year. It needs to deliver instantaneous power reliably, 24/7, to highly concentrated clusters. That’s the kind of demand that strains transformers, substations, transmission lines, and local generation, not just total supply.
Why PJM is the punchline
Zerohedge’s “Good luck PJM” line isn’t random. PJM covers Northern Virginia, basically the epicenter of global server infrastructure. Once a region becomes the hub for data centers, everything reinforces itself: latency advantages, fiber density, construction talent, existing supply chains.
But data centers can be built fast. Transmission upgrades can’t. New substations, transformer capacity, new gas lines, and regional planning take years. In some cases, nearly a decade. That gap is the real issue. It’s not that PJM can’t power these things, it’s that the load is growing faster than the infrastructure that feeds it.
When you get that mismatch, the pressure doesn’t show up evenly. It shows up as interconnection queues stretching into the 2030s, local bottlenecks, and political fights about who pays for upgrades and who gets priority access.
My View
The problem isn’t that AI will break the grid. The problem is that AI growth moves at tech speed and the grid moves at utility speed. The first stress points won’t be rolling blackouts, they’ll be permitting delays, transformer shortages, and regions quietly telling data center developers not here and not yet.
Over time, this demand reshapes the map. New hubs form where power is cheap, easy to build, or politically welcomed, places like ERCOT, MISO, and parts of the Southeast. Meanwhile, regions like PJM will be forced into hard choices about prioritizing reliability for households versus supporting industrial scale cloud demand.
This chart is predicting constraint. And the regions that figure out how to deliver reliable, scalable power the fastest will end up owning the next wave of AI growth.
Good luck PJM https://t.co/3I0nN7Hh85 tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Bitcoin Is Screaming And M2 Velocity Is Whispering Something Else
A taker buy/sell ratio around 1.17 basically means the aggressive side of the market is hitting buy. On the surface, that looks powerful. But this ratio tends to spike when positioning is already crowded. It measures urgency, not depth. And in crypto, urgency is usually leverage…not slow, steady accumulation.
It feels bullish. But these are exactly the kinds of readings that show up when a market is stretched, not necessarily when it’s healthy.
And then there’s M2 velocity which tells a very different story
Let me explain M2 velocity. Velocity is a simple idea…it’s how many times a dollar changes hands in the economy. When businesses are busy, consumers are confident, and transactions are flowing, velocity rises. When things slow down and when people hesitate, save more, or just buy less frequently velocity drops.
Over the past few years, velocity collapsed to the lowest level we’ve seen in modern history (around the COVID period). Then it started climbing back up, which looked encouraging. But here’s the key…it has now stopped rising. It’s flattened out.
Think of it like a runner who sprinted off the starting line, regained speed… and is now breathing hard, leveling off, and not accelerating anymore.
That flattening is important because velocity tends to behave like a big, smooth cycle. It rises for years, peaks, then slowly rolls over. And when it rolls over, it usually reflects an economy that’s running out of momentum before the official data catches it.
You don’t need a recession for velocity to fall. You just need the pulse of the economy to stop quickening and we’re right at that turning point.
Why these two things together matter
So on one side you have Bitcoin showing aggressive buying activity. On the other, you have an economy where the pace of money changing hands is plateauing. That’s the kind of mismatch you see late in a cycle where risk assets get loud and excitable while the underlying economy gets quieter.
That’s why the buy/sell ratio can be deceiving. It tells you the market is heated, not that the foundation underneath is strengthening. If anything, the flattening of velocity suggests the opposite that the engine that drives real economic momentum may be topping out and rolling over.
My View
If Bitcoin pushes higher from here, it won’t be because the macro backdrop is improving. It’ll be because positioning and leverage overpower the fundamentals, at least temporarily.
And when that happens, the moves are faster, but so are the reversals. The aggressive buying you see isn’t telling you new investors are stepping in. It’s telling you the market is leaning harder… at the same time the broader economic current is flattening.
That’s the tension you have to pay attention to.
tweet
Bitcoin Is Screaming And M2 Velocity Is Whispering Something Else
A taker buy/sell ratio around 1.17 basically means the aggressive side of the market is hitting buy. On the surface, that looks powerful. But this ratio tends to spike when positioning is already crowded. It measures urgency, not depth. And in crypto, urgency is usually leverage…not slow, steady accumulation.
It feels bullish. But these are exactly the kinds of readings that show up when a market is stretched, not necessarily when it’s healthy.
And then there’s M2 velocity which tells a very different story
Let me explain M2 velocity. Velocity is a simple idea…it’s how many times a dollar changes hands in the economy. When businesses are busy, consumers are confident, and transactions are flowing, velocity rises. When things slow down and when people hesitate, save more, or just buy less frequently velocity drops.
Over the past few years, velocity collapsed to the lowest level we’ve seen in modern history (around the COVID period). Then it started climbing back up, which looked encouraging. But here’s the key…it has now stopped rising. It’s flattened out.
Think of it like a runner who sprinted off the starting line, regained speed… and is now breathing hard, leveling off, and not accelerating anymore.
That flattening is important because velocity tends to behave like a big, smooth cycle. It rises for years, peaks, then slowly rolls over. And when it rolls over, it usually reflects an economy that’s running out of momentum before the official data catches it.
You don’t need a recession for velocity to fall. You just need the pulse of the economy to stop quickening and we’re right at that turning point.
Why these two things together matter
So on one side you have Bitcoin showing aggressive buying activity. On the other, you have an economy where the pace of money changing hands is plateauing. That’s the kind of mismatch you see late in a cycle where risk assets get loud and excitable while the underlying economy gets quieter.
That’s why the buy/sell ratio can be deceiving. It tells you the market is heated, not that the foundation underneath is strengthening. If anything, the flattening of velocity suggests the opposite that the engine that drives real economic momentum may be topping out and rolling over.
My View
If Bitcoin pushes higher from here, it won’t be because the macro backdrop is improving. It’ll be because positioning and leverage overpower the fundamentals, at least temporarily.
And when that happens, the moves are faster, but so are the reversals. The aggressive buying you see isn’t telling you new investors are stepping in. It’s telling you the market is leaning harder… at the same time the broader economic current is flattening.
That’s the tension you have to pay attention to.
🔥 BULLISH: Bitcoin's market buy-to-sell ratio hit 1.17, the highest since this cycle began in Jan 2023 per CryptoQuant. https://t.co/aPjHE9ZR2T tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/vvb7gjVfBJ
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BREAKING: Representatives Brian Fitzpatrick has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/vvb7gjVfBJ
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Mike Lawler has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/S3J3OGJWCZ
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JUST IN: Representative Mike Lawler has signed Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/S3J3OGJWCZ
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES
MUNICIPALITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
HIKE IN MUNICIPALITY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES https://t.co/Dohg35hAEs
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COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE VALUES
MUNICIPALITY COMMERCIAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUES
HIKE IN MUNICIPALITY RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY TAXES https://t.co/Dohg35hAEs
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