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EndGame Macro
Why a $12.5B Buyback Matters More for Liquidity Than Debt
This isn’t the Treasury trying to juice the market or retire debt like a corporation buying back shares. It’s more like upkeep on a market that’s gotten massive, uneven, and occasionally twitchy. Treasury accepted about $12.5B of older notes even though almost triple that amount was offered. That alone tells you this wasn’t a scramble, it was controlled, targeted, and aimed at maturities clustered in 2026–2027.
Older bonds naturally lose liquidity. They drift off the benchmark curve, trading gets thinner, and small stress can turn into sloppy pricing. Treasury stepping in to clean up those pockets is housekeeping. They’re smoothing out the parts of the market that tend to wobble at exactly the wrong time.
And the reason this matters more now is simple…Treasuries aren’t just investments, they’re the core collateral of the entire overnight funding world.
Why it’s happening now
Look at the bigger backdrop. The Fed has already cut twice and formally ended QT on December 1. That’s policymakers basically saying they’re done draining liquidity. Now we’re focused on keeping the machine running smoothly.
This is where SOFR comes in. SOFR is built on the repo market, the overnight lending engine where Treasuries are exchanged for cash. When SOFR volumes explode the way it has lately, it means the entire financial system is leaning heavily on collateralized overnight financing. That’s fine… until some slice of the Treasury market starts trading weird. Then volatility in one corner spreads everywhere because the collateral itself becomes harder to move.
Buybacks help keep that from happening. Cleaner collateral means cleaner repo markets. And cleaner repo markets mean fewer chances for a sudden, unnecessary funding hiccup.
Why it matters
The number $12.5B isn’t the real story. It’s the fact that buybacks are becoming a tool, not a headline. Paired with the end of QT, it’s a pretty clear sign that stability is rising up the priority ladder.
My Read
This is what late cycle policy looks like in a system built on leverage and constant refinancing. You rarely get one big dramatic break. You get a series of quiet adjustments meant to keep the cracks from forming in the first place.
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Why a $12.5B Buyback Matters More for Liquidity Than Debt
This isn’t the Treasury trying to juice the market or retire debt like a corporation buying back shares. It’s more like upkeep on a market that’s gotten massive, uneven, and occasionally twitchy. Treasury accepted about $12.5B of older notes even though almost triple that amount was offered. That alone tells you this wasn’t a scramble, it was controlled, targeted, and aimed at maturities clustered in 2026–2027.
Older bonds naturally lose liquidity. They drift off the benchmark curve, trading gets thinner, and small stress can turn into sloppy pricing. Treasury stepping in to clean up those pockets is housekeeping. They’re smoothing out the parts of the market that tend to wobble at exactly the wrong time.
And the reason this matters more now is simple…Treasuries aren’t just investments, they’re the core collateral of the entire overnight funding world.
Why it’s happening now
Look at the bigger backdrop. The Fed has already cut twice and formally ended QT on December 1. That’s policymakers basically saying they’re done draining liquidity. Now we’re focused on keeping the machine running smoothly.
This is where SOFR comes in. SOFR is built on the repo market, the overnight lending engine where Treasuries are exchanged for cash. When SOFR volumes explode the way it has lately, it means the entire financial system is leaning heavily on collateralized overnight financing. That’s fine… until some slice of the Treasury market starts trading weird. Then volatility in one corner spreads everywhere because the collateral itself becomes harder to move.
Buybacks help keep that from happening. Cleaner collateral means cleaner repo markets. And cleaner repo markets mean fewer chances for a sudden, unnecessary funding hiccup.
Why it matters
The number $12.5B isn’t the real story. It’s the fact that buybacks are becoming a tool, not a headline. Paired with the end of QT, it’s a pretty clear sign that stability is rising up the priority ladder.
My Read
This is what late cycle policy looks like in a system built on leverage and constant refinancing. You rarely get one big dramatic break. You get a series of quiet adjustments meant to keep the cracks from forming in the first place.
JUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury just bought back $12.5 Billion of their own debt, the largest Treasury buyback in history 🤯👀 tweet
WealthyReadings
RT @WealthyReadings: Too many people buy stocks simply because they think the company is great.
But every single buy should come with the answer to one very simple question: Why would that stock go up?
One of the most common answer is "because it’s cheap". Buying a stock because it's "cheap" is certainly one of the biggest source of underperformance in the markets.
If you do not have an answer and form a clear thesis, then there’s no reason to be buying that stock at that moment. Your liquidity is always better elsewhere.
Liking a company or following a great business does not mean it will end up being a great investment.
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RT @WealthyReadings: Too many people buy stocks simply because they think the company is great.
But every single buy should come with the answer to one very simple question: Why would that stock go up?
One of the most common answer is "because it’s cheap". Buying a stock because it's "cheap" is certainly one of the biggest source of underperformance in the markets.
If you do not have an answer and form a clear thesis, then there’s no reason to be buying that stock at that moment. Your liquidity is always better elsewhere.
Liking a company or following a great business does not mean it will end up being a great investment.
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App Economy Insights
$CRM Salesforce Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Current RPO +11% Y/Y to $29.4B
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $10.3B (in-line)
• Operating margin 21% (+1pp Y/Y)
• Non-GAAP EPS $3.25 ($0.39 beat)
FY26 guide:
• Revenue +10% to $41.5B ($0.3B raise)
• Adj. op. margin unchanged 34.1% https://t.co/FKRG4P3OIV
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$CRM Salesforce Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Current RPO +11% Y/Y to $29.4B
• Revenue +9% Y/Y to $10.3B (in-line)
• Operating margin 21% (+1pp Y/Y)
• Non-GAAP EPS $3.25 ($0.39 beat)
FY26 guide:
• Revenue +10% to $41.5B ($0.3B raise)
• Adj. op. margin unchanged 34.1% https://t.co/FKRG4P3OIV
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Fiscal.ai
Salesforce Q3 Results
Revenue +9% (v. +10% estimate)
Adj. EPS +35% (v. +19% estimate)
Remaining Performance Obligations +12%
$CRM: +4.05% after hours https://t.co/pozuv6sFJp
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Salesforce Q3 Results
Revenue +9% (v. +10% estimate)
Adj. EPS +35% (v. +19% estimate)
Remaining Performance Obligations +12%
$CRM: +4.05% after hours https://t.co/pozuv6sFJp
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App Economy Insights
$SNOW Snowflake Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Customers +20% Y/Y to 12,621.
• RPO +37% Y/Y to $7.9B.
• DBNR 125% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +29% Y/Y to $1.213B ($30M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.35 ($0.04 beat).
• FY26 Product revenue $4.446B ($51M raise). https://t.co/V72PBa5NCx
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$SNOW Snowflake Q3 FY26 (October quarter):
• Customers +20% Y/Y to 12,621.
• RPO +37% Y/Y to $7.9B.
• DBNR 125% (-2pp Y/Y).
• Revenue +29% Y/Y to $1.213B ($30M beat).
• Non-GAAP EPS $0.35 ($0.04 beat).
• FY26 Product revenue $4.446B ($51M raise). https://t.co/V72PBa5NCx
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Wasteland Capital
$AEO closed today at +128% since the late July entry.
Many quick flipped this at +30-50% on the back of the media attention, instead of trusting the fundamentals.
In cases like this, you have to let the fundamental case play out. Let it cook. Compounding always wins. https://t.co/Y1Qy0xbtpT
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$AEO closed today at +128% since the late July entry.
Many quick flipped this at +30-50% on the back of the media attention, instead of trusting the fundamentals.
In cases like this, you have to let the fundamental case play out. Let it cook. Compounding always wins. https://t.co/Y1Qy0xbtpT
Sydney Sweeney doing the fall campaign at $AEO.
Consensus EPS next year is $1.23 (Feb-27), which implies 8.5x P/E at the $10.50 price. Stock’s beaten down due to poor (-3%) Q1 SSS & tariff-induced margin pressure.
I think they can do $1.60 in EPS, which would be $24 @ 15x P/E. https://t.co/SiNGjPetF8 tweet
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Fiscal.ai
Shares of Snowflake are down 22% over the last 5 years.
Meanwhile, revenue is up 659%.
Valuation matters.
$SNOW https://t.co/WNJ787sO29
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Shares of Snowflake are down 22% over the last 5 years.
Meanwhile, revenue is up 659%.
Valuation matters.
$SNOW https://t.co/WNJ787sO29
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: MercadoLibre is trading near its lowest multiple in the past 2 years (P/E & FCF Yield) 💸
Here’s $MELI projected CAGR through 2028 assuming EPS hits $106.00 (-10% below consensus):
36x P/E: $3816💵 | ~20% CAGR
34x P/E: $3604💵 | ~18% CAGR
32x P/E: $3392💵 | ~16% CAGR
30x P/E: $3180💵 | ~14% CAGR
28x P/E: $2968💵 | ~11% CAGR
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Even assuming EPS comes in 10% below consensus and a 28% multiple contraction (ending at 30x), $MELI still offers compelling return potential
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RT @DimitryNakhla: MercadoLibre is trading near its lowest multiple in the past 2 years (P/E & FCF Yield) 💸
Here’s $MELI projected CAGR through 2028 assuming EPS hits $106.00 (-10% below consensus):
36x P/E: $3816💵 | ~20% CAGR
34x P/E: $3604💵 | ~18% CAGR
32x P/E: $3392💵 | ~16% CAGR
30x P/E: $3180💵 | ~14% CAGR
28x P/E: $2968💵 | ~11% CAGR
___
Even assuming EPS comes in 10% below consensus and a 28% multiple contraction (ending at 30x), $MELI still offers compelling return potential
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