Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Dollar Tree has now delivered 17 consecutive quarters of positive comp store sales growth.
Shares of the discount retailer are now up 62.5% since announcing the sale of the Family Dollar banner in March 2025.
$DLTR https://t.co/Oh0JW50NvF
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Dollar Tree has now delivered 17 consecutive quarters of positive comp store sales growth.
Shares of the discount retailer are now up 62.5% since announcing the sale of the Family Dollar banner in March 2025.
$DLTR https://t.co/Oh0JW50NvF
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The First Crack You Can’t Ignore: ADP Just Showed Us Where the Slowdown Really Lives
The headline number from ADP is rough…private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November. That’s not the kind of thing you can wave away as noise when you look at how the losses are distributed. The real story sits underneath and it’s a lot more recession!flavored than people want to admit.
The most troubling piece is what happened to small businesses. They didn’t just slow hiring, they shed 120,000 jobs. And the smallest firms (1–19 employees) alone cut 46,000. When tiny companies retreat like this, it usually means two things: demand is softening, and credit is tight. They don’t have the buffers big firms have. They react first. They show stress first. And they’re usually right.
Then you look at the industries carrying the losses…
• Professional and business services: -26k
• Information: -20k
• Manufacturing: -18k
• Construction: -9k
That’s a mix you tend to see when the economy is shifting from slowing to actually rolling over. White collar cuts mean companies are pausing projects, freezing budgets, or scaling back plans. Manufacturing and construction weakness means orders are thinning out. And when those two sides of the economy weaken at the same time, it usually isn’t a false signal.
But here’s where the picture bends a little. This wasn’t an across the board collapse. Education and health added 33k, and leisure and hospitality added 13k. Those are late cycle sectors, they tend to hold up longer because people still need care, and people still look for services even when they pull back elsewhere. So you end up with a split labor market with essential services still hiring, cyclical and white collar areas pulling back.
Wages tell the same story. Pay is still up, but the momentum is fading. Job stayers are at 4.4%, job changers at 6.3%, both slowing. And small firms, the ones that cut the most jobs are now only giving 2.5% raises. That’s not a thriving environment; that’s survival mode.
If you’re looking for contradictions, they’re there. Job losses are mounting, but layoffs in other datasets still look muted. Some regions (like the West) added 67k jobs, while the Northeast alone lost 100k. And despite all this weakness, ADP revised October up from 42k to 47k.
None of that screams panic. But taken together, it does suggest an economy that’s starting to lose its footing.
My Read
This is what the early stage of a downturn looks like in real time. Not dramatic. Not clean. Just a slow tightening in all the places that matter: small firms, cyclicals, white collar work, wage growth. It’s the phase where the labor market stops adding oxygen before anyone sees the smoke.
If this pattern repeats even one more month, the conversation won’t be about whether the job market is cooling, it’ll be about how far along the slowdown already is.
tweet
The First Crack You Can’t Ignore: ADP Just Showed Us Where the Slowdown Really Lives
The headline number from ADP is rough…private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November. That’s not the kind of thing you can wave away as noise when you look at how the losses are distributed. The real story sits underneath and it’s a lot more recession!flavored than people want to admit.
The most troubling piece is what happened to small businesses. They didn’t just slow hiring, they shed 120,000 jobs. And the smallest firms (1–19 employees) alone cut 46,000. When tiny companies retreat like this, it usually means two things: demand is softening, and credit is tight. They don’t have the buffers big firms have. They react first. They show stress first. And they’re usually right.
Then you look at the industries carrying the losses…
• Professional and business services: -26k
• Information: -20k
• Manufacturing: -18k
• Construction: -9k
That’s a mix you tend to see when the economy is shifting from slowing to actually rolling over. White collar cuts mean companies are pausing projects, freezing budgets, or scaling back plans. Manufacturing and construction weakness means orders are thinning out. And when those two sides of the economy weaken at the same time, it usually isn’t a false signal.
But here’s where the picture bends a little. This wasn’t an across the board collapse. Education and health added 33k, and leisure and hospitality added 13k. Those are late cycle sectors, they tend to hold up longer because people still need care, and people still look for services even when they pull back elsewhere. So you end up with a split labor market with essential services still hiring, cyclical and white collar areas pulling back.
Wages tell the same story. Pay is still up, but the momentum is fading. Job stayers are at 4.4%, job changers at 6.3%, both slowing. And small firms, the ones that cut the most jobs are now only giving 2.5% raises. That’s not a thriving environment; that’s survival mode.
If you’re looking for contradictions, they’re there. Job losses are mounting, but layoffs in other datasets still look muted. Some regions (like the West) added 67k jobs, while the Northeast alone lost 100k. And despite all this weakness, ADP revised October up from 42k to 47k.
None of that screams panic. But taken together, it does suggest an economy that’s starting to lose its footing.
My Read
This is what the early stage of a downturn looks like in real time. Not dramatic. Not clean. Just a slow tightening in all the places that matter: small firms, cyclicals, white collar work, wage growth. It’s the phase where the labor market stops adding oxygen before anyone sees the smoke.
If this pattern repeats even one more month, the conversation won’t be about whether the job market is cooling, it’ll be about how far along the slowdown already is.
ADP highlights https://t.co/iRvdbnTNhI tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 this year.
The Trade Desk: -66%
Lululemon: -52%
Charter: -42%
Strategy: -37%
Atlassian: -37%
Copart: -32%
PayPal: -29%
Adobe: -27%
Comcast: -27%
Paychex: -20%
$TTD $LULU $CHTR $MSTR $TEAM $CPRT $PYPL $ADBE $CMCSA $PAYX https://t.co/0Tbgfh2S44
tweet
Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 this year.
The Trade Desk: -66%
Lululemon: -52%
Charter: -42%
Strategy: -37%
Atlassian: -37%
Copart: -32%
PayPal: -29%
Adobe: -27%
Comcast: -27%
Paychex: -20%
$TTD $LULU $CHTR $MSTR $TEAM $CPRT $PYPL $ADBE $CMCSA $PAYX https://t.co/0Tbgfh2S44
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WealthyReadings
The economy: clear signs of weakness from low income household consumption.
The U.S. government:
- "Substantial Tax Refunds".
- $2,000 Stimulus Check Proposal.
- Rate Cuts Boost With New Fed Chair.
- Tariff Reductions.
Maybe not that curious to see $ONON, $DECK, $NKE & $LULU catch a bid if we're back to liquidity injection.
tweet
The economy: clear signs of weakness from low income household consumption.
The U.S. government:
- "Substantial Tax Refunds".
- $2,000 Stimulus Check Proposal.
- Rate Cuts Boost With New Fed Chair.
- Tariff Reductions.
Maybe not that curious to see $ONON, $DECK, $NKE & $LULU catch a bid if we're back to liquidity injection.
tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Thomas Massie just spoke on the budget deficit.
"This year we've increased spending by $200B...this whole place is unserious about balancing the budget"
- @RepThomasMassie https://t.co/SQF73qs9XD
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JUST IN: Thomas Massie just spoke on the budget deficit.
"This year we've increased spending by $200B...this whole place is unserious about balancing the budget"
- @RepThomasMassie https://t.co/SQF73qs9XD
tweet
WealthyReadings
Nothing good happens below the 21.
There are no reasons to buy too early in the markets. You can certainly take more risks and buy stocks with higher beta, but this is different from buying early.
Buying too early is jumping in before a stock stabilizes, often while the price is still below the 21 average and the fall continues. It's buying a falling knife.
That urge to press the green button because "this might be the bottom" and "what if it is" or "it is too cheap to ignore now" often yields long pain, long enough to trigger capitulation.
Investing means discipline.
Wait for the average to catch up. You won't miss anything by waiting a few more days. Even a few more weeks. Stock don't pass from falling knives to tripple valuation in two days.
Nothing good happens below the 21.
tweet
Nothing good happens below the 21.
There are no reasons to buy too early in the markets. You can certainly take more risks and buy stocks with higher beta, but this is different from buying early.
Buying too early is jumping in before a stock stabilizes, often while the price is still below the 21 average and the fall continues. It's buying a falling knife.
That urge to press the green button because "this might be the bottom" and "what if it is" or "it is too cheap to ignore now" often yields long pain, long enough to trigger capitulation.
Investing means discipline.
Wait for the average to catch up. You won't miss anything by waiting a few more days. Even a few more weeks. Stock don't pass from falling knives to tripple valuation in two days.
Nothing good happens below the 21.
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Number Everyone Will Celebrate… Until They Read the Fine Print in the ISM Services PMI
On the surface, the November ISM Services PMI looks steady. The headline sits at 52.6, business activity at 54.5, and new orders at 52.9, all technically in expansion. But once you move past the top line, the tone shifts. This doesn’t feel like a sector gaining momentum. It feels like one that’s still moving, but more out of inertia and backlog than genuine strength.
The clearest signal comes from the labor line. The Employment Index is 48.9, marking the sixth straight month of contraction. In a services driven economy, that’s not a minor detail. When hiring slows, confidence tends to fade first, discretionary spending follows, and then credit stress creeps in. Even the respondent comments hint at hesitation: firms say they’re filling vacancies, yet applicants aren’t showing up because the jobs require being back in the office. That’s not a hot labor market, it’s a cautious one.
New orders tell a similar story. They’re still above 50, but weaker than last month’s 56.2, and almost 60% of firms say orders are simply unchanged. That’s not momentum. That’s a plateau. And the anecdotes reinforce the split…one says pharma spending is up, another says customer uncertainty is getting in the way of commitments. That’s selective strength inside a broader slowdown.
Where the Cracks Start to Show
Trade components are already in contraction. New export orders at 48.7 and imports at 48.9 point to cooling global and domestic flow. This usually shows up downstream with a lag…transportation slows, warehousing adjusts, and labor demand eventually reacts. Transportation and warehousing are indeed among the sectors reporting contraction.
Housing linked categories also remain stuck. Construction and real estate show contraction again, and the construction comment reads like a small recession story with mortgage rates freezing buyers, margins getting squeezed, subcontractors tightening up. Housing doesn’t need to collapse to drag the cycle lower; it just needs to stay stagnant long enough for confidence to slip.
One of the more misleading bright spots is Supplier Deliveries. The index jumped to 54.1, which normally would be a sign of strong demand since slower deliveries usually mean suppliers are busy. But ISM spells out the real cause which was the shutdown driven air traffic disruptions and customs delays tied to new tariffs. Because Supplier Deliveries is part of the composite PMI, a delay caused by dysfunction can unintentionally inflate the headline number.
The Quiet Signals Beneath the Surface
Backlog rose sharply to 49.1, its highest in months, but still below 50 meaning it’s still contracting. A rising backlog inside contraction often means work is piling up because the system is slow, not because demand is surging. Inventories moved back into expansion at 53.4, but inventory sentiment remains too high for the 31st straight month. That’s not a sign of confidence; it’s a sign businesses are unsure whether demand will actually show up.
Prices remain elevated at 65.4, above 60 for a full year, even after easing slightly.
That mix of cooling demand, sticky costs, and policy uncertainty is exactly what makes late cycle environments fragile.
What This Really Means
This report is telegraphing a slowdown. The headline stays above 50 partly because Supplier Deliveries is being distorted by shutdown friction rather than real demand. Meanwhile, the core components like hiring, new orders, trade flow, and inventory behavior are softer than the composite suggests.
The real message is that services are still expanding, but the underlying posture is increasingly cautious. Firms are executing on the work they already have, not leaning into new commitments. And in a services led economy, that kind of hesitation is usually how slowdowns begin, quietly at first, and then all at once.
.@ISM® Services PMI® Report: Supplier deliveries slowed (likel[...]
The Number Everyone Will Celebrate… Until They Read the Fine Print in the ISM Services PMI
On the surface, the November ISM Services PMI looks steady. The headline sits at 52.6, business activity at 54.5, and new orders at 52.9, all technically in expansion. But once you move past the top line, the tone shifts. This doesn’t feel like a sector gaining momentum. It feels like one that’s still moving, but more out of inertia and backlog than genuine strength.
The clearest signal comes from the labor line. The Employment Index is 48.9, marking the sixth straight month of contraction. In a services driven economy, that’s not a minor detail. When hiring slows, confidence tends to fade first, discretionary spending follows, and then credit stress creeps in. Even the respondent comments hint at hesitation: firms say they’re filling vacancies, yet applicants aren’t showing up because the jobs require being back in the office. That’s not a hot labor market, it’s a cautious one.
New orders tell a similar story. They’re still above 50, but weaker than last month’s 56.2, and almost 60% of firms say orders are simply unchanged. That’s not momentum. That’s a plateau. And the anecdotes reinforce the split…one says pharma spending is up, another says customer uncertainty is getting in the way of commitments. That’s selective strength inside a broader slowdown.
Where the Cracks Start to Show
Trade components are already in contraction. New export orders at 48.7 and imports at 48.9 point to cooling global and domestic flow. This usually shows up downstream with a lag…transportation slows, warehousing adjusts, and labor demand eventually reacts. Transportation and warehousing are indeed among the sectors reporting contraction.
Housing linked categories also remain stuck. Construction and real estate show contraction again, and the construction comment reads like a small recession story with mortgage rates freezing buyers, margins getting squeezed, subcontractors tightening up. Housing doesn’t need to collapse to drag the cycle lower; it just needs to stay stagnant long enough for confidence to slip.
One of the more misleading bright spots is Supplier Deliveries. The index jumped to 54.1, which normally would be a sign of strong demand since slower deliveries usually mean suppliers are busy. But ISM spells out the real cause which was the shutdown driven air traffic disruptions and customs delays tied to new tariffs. Because Supplier Deliveries is part of the composite PMI, a delay caused by dysfunction can unintentionally inflate the headline number.
The Quiet Signals Beneath the Surface
Backlog rose sharply to 49.1, its highest in months, but still below 50 meaning it’s still contracting. A rising backlog inside contraction often means work is piling up because the system is slow, not because demand is surging. Inventories moved back into expansion at 53.4, but inventory sentiment remains too high for the 31st straight month. That’s not a sign of confidence; it’s a sign businesses are unsure whether demand will actually show up.
Prices remain elevated at 65.4, above 60 for a full year, even after easing slightly.
That mix of cooling demand, sticky costs, and policy uncertainty is exactly what makes late cycle environments fragile.
What This Really Means
This report is telegraphing a slowdown. The headline stays above 50 partly because Supplier Deliveries is being distorted by shutdown friction rather than real demand. Meanwhile, the core components like hiring, new orders, trade flow, and inventory behavior are softer than the composite suggests.
The real message is that services are still expanding, but the underlying posture is increasingly cautious. Firms are executing on the work they already have, not leaning into new commitments. And in a services led economy, that kind of hesitation is usually how slowdowns begin, quietly at first, and then all at once.
.@ISM® Services PMI® Report: Supplier deliveries slowed (likel[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro The Number Everyone Will Celebrate… Until They Read the Fine Print in the ISM Services PMI On the surface, the November ISM Services PMI looks steady. The headline sits at 52.6, business activity at 54.5, and new orders at 52.9, all technically…
y due to government shutdown air-traffic disruptions and #tariffs), but business activity remained solid as the #ISMPMI hit 52.6% in November. Twelve of 18 industries reported growth. https://t.co/RE3dQxIIu4 #economy - Institute for Supply Management tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Part People Miss About Falling Yields
When the 3 year drops like this, most folks instinctively see it as good news…easier money, relief, a sign things are calming down. But in the real plumbing of the system, fast rate declines don’t land softly. They hit balance sheets, hedges, and cash flows immediately.
When yields fall quickly, anyone who was positioned the other way that are short Treasuries, paying fixed in swaps, running duration hedges takes an instant mark to market loss. And in modern markets, losses aren’t theoretical. They trigger margin calls. Real cash, due right now. That’s how you end up with global collateral calls even when the headline narrative is rates are easing.
A lot of that hedging sits in global institutions, leveraged vehicles, mortgage portfolios, foreign reserve managers, all linked through dollar collateral. When those calls hit, people sell what’s liquid, pull back on lending, and raise cash however they can. Paradoxically, falling yields can briefly tighten conditions for the players holding the hedges.
Why Lower Rates Can Feel Like Lower Income
There’s also the slow grind effect. When rates fall, income on collateral drops, reinvestment yields fall, and net interest margins get squeezed. You don’t feel it instantly, but across the system, it reduces the carry cushion that keeps risk taking comfortable. Lower rates aren’t always a stimulus…sometimes they quietly drain the compensation that investors and lenders rely on.
And then there’s housing. When rates fall, it reopens the refinancing door. Even a modest move lower can restart the prepayment cycle after a long freeze. Once that happens, mortgage bonds shorten in duration. Investors who hold them then have to buy duration back often by buying Treasuries or receiving fixed in swaps,
which can push yields lower still. It’s the old negative convexity loop.
What This Really Signals
The risk here isn’t that rates are lower, it’s how fast they’re getting there. Quick drops expose leverage, force cash out of hiding, and shake up the mortgage hedge complex. That’s the kind of move that looks calm from a distance but feels stressful underneath. The market might be right about growth slowing, but that doesn’t mean the adjustment will be orderly.
tweet
The Part People Miss About Falling Yields
When the 3 year drops like this, most folks instinctively see it as good news…easier money, relief, a sign things are calming down. But in the real plumbing of the system, fast rate declines don’t land softly. They hit balance sheets, hedges, and cash flows immediately.
When yields fall quickly, anyone who was positioned the other way that are short Treasuries, paying fixed in swaps, running duration hedges takes an instant mark to market loss. And in modern markets, losses aren’t theoretical. They trigger margin calls. Real cash, due right now. That’s how you end up with global collateral calls even when the headline narrative is rates are easing.
A lot of that hedging sits in global institutions, leveraged vehicles, mortgage portfolios, foreign reserve managers, all linked through dollar collateral. When those calls hit, people sell what’s liquid, pull back on lending, and raise cash however they can. Paradoxically, falling yields can briefly tighten conditions for the players holding the hedges.
Why Lower Rates Can Feel Like Lower Income
There’s also the slow grind effect. When rates fall, income on collateral drops, reinvestment yields fall, and net interest margins get squeezed. You don’t feel it instantly, but across the system, it reduces the carry cushion that keeps risk taking comfortable. Lower rates aren’t always a stimulus…sometimes they quietly drain the compensation that investors and lenders rely on.
And then there’s housing. When rates fall, it reopens the refinancing door. Even a modest move lower can restart the prepayment cycle after a long freeze. Once that happens, mortgage bonds shorten in duration. Investors who hold them then have to buy duration back often by buying Treasuries or receiving fixed in swaps,
which can push yields lower still. It’s the old negative convexity loop.
What This Really Signals
The risk here isn’t that rates are lower, it’s how fast they’re getting there. Quick drops expose leverage, force cash out of hiding, and shake up the mortgage hedge complex. That’s the kind of move that looks calm from a distance but feels stressful underneath. The market might be right about growth slowing, but that doesn’t mean the adjustment will be orderly.
Beware of lower rates.
This produces global collateral calls this reduces income, and this will accelerate mortgage pre-payments https://t.co/A1m7sN3Chk tweet