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memenodes
apple music users watching everyone talk about their spotify wrapped https://t.co/17btxEGuFW
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apple music users watching everyone talk about their spotify wrapped https://t.co/17btxEGuFW
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Offshore
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memenodes
The book will help you chill out and get rid of the chaos in your head https://t.co/gKNqsBvKrO
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The book will help you chill out and get rid of the chaos in your head https://t.co/gKNqsBvKrO
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Dollar Tree has now delivered 17 consecutive quarters of positive comp store sales growth.
Shares of the discount retailer are now up 62.5% since announcing the sale of the Family Dollar banner in March 2025.
$DLTR https://t.co/Oh0JW50NvF
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Dollar Tree has now delivered 17 consecutive quarters of positive comp store sales growth.
Shares of the discount retailer are now up 62.5% since announcing the sale of the Family Dollar banner in March 2025.
$DLTR https://t.co/Oh0JW50NvF
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The First Crack You Can’t Ignore: ADP Just Showed Us Where the Slowdown Really Lives
The headline number from ADP is rough…private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November. That’s not the kind of thing you can wave away as noise when you look at how the losses are distributed. The real story sits underneath and it’s a lot more recession!flavored than people want to admit.
The most troubling piece is what happened to small businesses. They didn’t just slow hiring, they shed 120,000 jobs. And the smallest firms (1–19 employees) alone cut 46,000. When tiny companies retreat like this, it usually means two things: demand is softening, and credit is tight. They don’t have the buffers big firms have. They react first. They show stress first. And they’re usually right.
Then you look at the industries carrying the losses…
• Professional and business services: -26k
• Information: -20k
• Manufacturing: -18k
• Construction: -9k
That’s a mix you tend to see when the economy is shifting from slowing to actually rolling over. White collar cuts mean companies are pausing projects, freezing budgets, or scaling back plans. Manufacturing and construction weakness means orders are thinning out. And when those two sides of the economy weaken at the same time, it usually isn’t a false signal.
But here’s where the picture bends a little. This wasn’t an across the board collapse. Education and health added 33k, and leisure and hospitality added 13k. Those are late cycle sectors, they tend to hold up longer because people still need care, and people still look for services even when they pull back elsewhere. So you end up with a split labor market with essential services still hiring, cyclical and white collar areas pulling back.
Wages tell the same story. Pay is still up, but the momentum is fading. Job stayers are at 4.4%, job changers at 6.3%, both slowing. And small firms, the ones that cut the most jobs are now only giving 2.5% raises. That’s not a thriving environment; that’s survival mode.
If you’re looking for contradictions, they’re there. Job losses are mounting, but layoffs in other datasets still look muted. Some regions (like the West) added 67k jobs, while the Northeast alone lost 100k. And despite all this weakness, ADP revised October up from 42k to 47k.
None of that screams panic. But taken together, it does suggest an economy that’s starting to lose its footing.
My Read
This is what the early stage of a downturn looks like in real time. Not dramatic. Not clean. Just a slow tightening in all the places that matter: small firms, cyclicals, white collar work, wage growth. It’s the phase where the labor market stops adding oxygen before anyone sees the smoke.
If this pattern repeats even one more month, the conversation won’t be about whether the job market is cooling, it’ll be about how far along the slowdown already is.
tweet
The First Crack You Can’t Ignore: ADP Just Showed Us Where the Slowdown Really Lives
The headline number from ADP is rough…private payrolls fell by 32,000 in November. That’s not the kind of thing you can wave away as noise when you look at how the losses are distributed. The real story sits underneath and it’s a lot more recession!flavored than people want to admit.
The most troubling piece is what happened to small businesses. They didn’t just slow hiring, they shed 120,000 jobs. And the smallest firms (1–19 employees) alone cut 46,000. When tiny companies retreat like this, it usually means two things: demand is softening, and credit is tight. They don’t have the buffers big firms have. They react first. They show stress first. And they’re usually right.
Then you look at the industries carrying the losses…
• Professional and business services: -26k
• Information: -20k
• Manufacturing: -18k
• Construction: -9k
That’s a mix you tend to see when the economy is shifting from slowing to actually rolling over. White collar cuts mean companies are pausing projects, freezing budgets, or scaling back plans. Manufacturing and construction weakness means orders are thinning out. And when those two sides of the economy weaken at the same time, it usually isn’t a false signal.
But here’s where the picture bends a little. This wasn’t an across the board collapse. Education and health added 33k, and leisure and hospitality added 13k. Those are late cycle sectors, they tend to hold up longer because people still need care, and people still look for services even when they pull back elsewhere. So you end up with a split labor market with essential services still hiring, cyclical and white collar areas pulling back.
Wages tell the same story. Pay is still up, but the momentum is fading. Job stayers are at 4.4%, job changers at 6.3%, both slowing. And small firms, the ones that cut the most jobs are now only giving 2.5% raises. That’s not a thriving environment; that’s survival mode.
If you’re looking for contradictions, they’re there. Job losses are mounting, but layoffs in other datasets still look muted. Some regions (like the West) added 67k jobs, while the Northeast alone lost 100k. And despite all this weakness, ADP revised October up from 42k to 47k.
None of that screams panic. But taken together, it does suggest an economy that’s starting to lose its footing.
My Read
This is what the early stage of a downturn looks like in real time. Not dramatic. Not clean. Just a slow tightening in all the places that matter: small firms, cyclicals, white collar work, wage growth. It’s the phase where the labor market stops adding oxygen before anyone sees the smoke.
If this pattern repeats even one more month, the conversation won’t be about whether the job market is cooling, it’ll be about how far along the slowdown already is.
ADP highlights https://t.co/iRvdbnTNhI tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 this year.
The Trade Desk: -66%
Lululemon: -52%
Charter: -42%
Strategy: -37%
Atlassian: -37%
Copart: -32%
PayPal: -29%
Adobe: -27%
Comcast: -27%
Paychex: -20%
$TTD $LULU $CHTR $MSTR $TEAM $CPRT $PYPL $ADBE $CMCSA $PAYX https://t.co/0Tbgfh2S44
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Here are the 10 worst performing stocks in the NASDAQ 100 this year.
The Trade Desk: -66%
Lululemon: -52%
Charter: -42%
Strategy: -37%
Atlassian: -37%
Copart: -32%
PayPal: -29%
Adobe: -27%
Comcast: -27%
Paychex: -20%
$TTD $LULU $CHTR $MSTR $TEAM $CPRT $PYPL $ADBE $CMCSA $PAYX https://t.co/0Tbgfh2S44
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WealthyReadings
The economy: clear signs of weakness from low income household consumption.
The U.S. government:
- "Substantial Tax Refunds".
- $2,000 Stimulus Check Proposal.
- Rate Cuts Boost With New Fed Chair.
- Tariff Reductions.
Maybe not that curious to see $ONON, $DECK, $NKE & $LULU catch a bid if we're back to liquidity injection.
tweet
The economy: clear signs of weakness from low income household consumption.
The U.S. government:
- "Substantial Tax Refunds".
- $2,000 Stimulus Check Proposal.
- Rate Cuts Boost With New Fed Chair.
- Tariff Reductions.
Maybe not that curious to see $ONON, $DECK, $NKE & $LULU catch a bid if we're back to liquidity injection.
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Thomas Massie just spoke on the budget deficit.
"This year we've increased spending by $200B...this whole place is unserious about balancing the budget"
- @RepThomasMassie https://t.co/SQF73qs9XD
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JUST IN: Thomas Massie just spoke on the budget deficit.
"This year we've increased spending by $200B...this whole place is unserious about balancing the budget"
- @RepThomasMassie https://t.co/SQF73qs9XD
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WealthyReadings
Nothing good happens below the 21.
There are no reasons to buy too early in the markets. You can certainly take more risks and buy stocks with higher beta, but this is different from buying early.
Buying too early is jumping in before a stock stabilizes, often while the price is still below the 21 average and the fall continues. It's buying a falling knife.
That urge to press the green button because "this might be the bottom" and "what if it is" or "it is too cheap to ignore now" often yields long pain, long enough to trigger capitulation.
Investing means discipline.
Wait for the average to catch up. You won't miss anything by waiting a few more days. Even a few more weeks. Stock don't pass from falling knives to tripple valuation in two days.
Nothing good happens below the 21.
tweet
Nothing good happens below the 21.
There are no reasons to buy too early in the markets. You can certainly take more risks and buy stocks with higher beta, but this is different from buying early.
Buying too early is jumping in before a stock stabilizes, often while the price is still below the 21 average and the fall continues. It's buying a falling knife.
That urge to press the green button because "this might be the bottom" and "what if it is" or "it is too cheap to ignore now" often yields long pain, long enough to trigger capitulation.
Investing means discipline.
Wait for the average to catch up. You won't miss anything by waiting a few more days. Even a few more weeks. Stock don't pass from falling knives to tripple valuation in two days.
Nothing good happens below the 21.
tweet