Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
CrowdStrike just reported Q3 revenue growth of 22%, vs. estimates of 20%.
Does any SaaS company have a better revenue chart over the last 5 years?
$CRWD https://t.co/xRm9p9baAd
tweet
CrowdStrike just reported Q3 revenue growth of 22%, vs. estimates of 20%.
Does any SaaS company have a better revenue chart over the last 5 years?
$CRWD https://t.co/xRm9p9baAd
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Wasteland Capital
$AEO FUUK YEAH! Massive beat as expected (Aerie SSS accelerated to +11%), but the Q4 guide of +8-9% total SSS and operating income at $155-160m (vs $130m cons) looks absolutely insane.
Simply flabbergasted. I’m just undefeated in retail & brand investing.
Sydney, call me 🤙 https://t.co/NxHhtFbrwh
tweet
$AEO FUUK YEAH! Massive beat as expected (Aerie SSS accelerated to +11%), but the Q4 guide of +8-9% total SSS and operating income at $155-160m (vs $130m cons) looks absolutely insane.
Simply flabbergasted. I’m just undefeated in retail & brand investing.
Sydney, call me 🤙 https://t.co/NxHhtFbrwh
Sydney Sweeney doing the fall campaign at $AEO.
Consensus EPS next year is $1.23 (Feb-27), which implies 8.5x P/E at the $10.50 price. Stock’s beaten down due to poor (-3%) Q1 SSS & tariff-induced margin pressure.
I think they can do $1.60 in EPS, which would be $24 @ 15x P/E. https://t.co/SiNGjPetF8 tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
tweet
RT @onechancefreedm: (1/2) Empire’s Workshop, Crude Interventions, and the New Struggle for Venezuela: U.S., China, Russia, and the Fight to Lock Down the Hemisphere
Greg Grandin’s Empire’s Workshop argued that Latin America was the testing ground where Washington refined the tools of modern empire with sanctions, covert wars, regime destabilization, and the ability to fold raw power into the language of democracy. Garry Leech’s Crude Interventions showed how U.S. foreign policy cannot be separated from oil, with military campaigns and financial pressure used to guarantee access to hydrocarbons and maintain the global dollar order. When read together, these books describe with eerie precision the storm now unfolding around Venezuela.
The U.S. is not treating Venezuela as a peripheral crisis but as a hinge point for the Western Hemisphere. Washington knows that in a Fourth Turning moment, when institutional and monetary systems globally are under stress, it cannot afford to let rivals exploit instability in its own backyard. This is why the narrative of a drug war has given way to a broader strategic frame: cartels as shadow sovereigns, controlling not only narcotics but also ports, trucking fleets, pipelines, minerals, and even migration flows. By designating them as terrorist entities, sanctioning their banks, and targeting their logistics networks, the U.S. is asserting that migration, minerals, and energy corridors fall under national security, not law enforcement.
Here Grandin’s thesis is alive: Latin America once again becomes the workshop where imperial methods are refined. But Leech’s oil centric warning is also central: this is not ultimately about law enforcement, it is about restructuring energy and financial flows to ensure they remain under U.S. command. Guyana’s new oil reserves, Venezuelan offshore rigs, and cartel linked extortion of refineries are treated as strategic arteries of the global economy. Washington’s military patrols in the Caribbean, sanctions on narco linked banks, and crackdowns on illicit shipping are less about Maduro than about guaranteeing that adversaries cannot disrupt or capture these arteries.
China and Russia complicate this picture. Beijing has become Venezuela’s primary creditor and economic lifeline, providing billions in loans, supplying oil and goods to circumvent U.S. sanctions, and securing new deals to develop oil fields that could generate over $1 billion in investment by 2026. Beyond Venezuela, China is now the leading trading partner for much of South America, backing infrastructure projects from Brazilian ports to Chilean energy grids. Its strategy is patient, embedding influence through debt, trade, and long term supply chains.
Russia, by contrast, plays a narrower but sharper role. Its influence rests on military and security cooperation. In 2025, Moscow and Caracas signed a new strategic partnership, followed by the opening of a Kalashnikov ammunition factory in Venezuela. Russia also positions itself as lender of last resort, offering oil swaps and financial lifelines despite sanctions. On the information front, it aligns with Maduro’s worldview, using state media to amplify narratives of resistance against U.S. imperialism. Its objective is less about economic penetration than about ensuring the U.S. faces constant friction in its own hemisphere. Continued on page 2…..
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$MDB MongoDB just surged +22%.
Everyone is focused on chips.
But there is a lot of alpha moving up the stack.
The market is finally separating the AI enablers from the AI victims.
Here is the breakdown. 👇
https://t.co/aAb7VakJHR
tweet
$MDB MongoDB just surged +22%.
Everyone is focused on chips.
But there is a lot of alpha moving up the stack.
The market is finally separating the AI enablers from the AI victims.
Here is the breakdown. 👇
https://t.co/aAb7VakJHR
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Greg Steube will be signing Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/f62aH1SRXu
tweet
BREAKING: Representative Greg Steube will be signing Rep. Luna's discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/f62aH1SRXu
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @SahilBloom: Everyone should read this story…
One day, a young warrior was walking to his training when he spotted his teacher, a master warrior, tending to plants in the garden.
He approached cautiously and stood quietly, not wanting to disturb the man from whom he had learned so much.
“What is it you want?” Asked the master warrior, without breaking focus from the plants.
The student replied, “Why do we train for war? Would it not be more tranquil and serene to be a gardener and tend the plants?"
The master paused, turned to the student, and smiled.
“Tending the garden is a relaxing pastime, but it does not prepare one for the inevitable battles of life. It’s easy to be calm in such a serene setting. It’s hard to be calm when under attack.”
The student nodded and turned away, satisfied with the answer, but the master wasn’t finished.
“It is far better to be a warrior tending his garden than a gardener at war.”
I think about that story almost every day.
Because here’s the truth we all know: Life is hard. Chaos, uncertainty, failure, struggle, pain, loss. All of those things are a natural part of being alive. They’re not good or bad. They just are.
And most of the time, you don’t get to choose the battles that come to your doorstep. You don’t get to pick the adversaries you prefer. You can’t negotiate the timing or the terms. There’s no “timeout” if you’re not ready. There’s no holding period if you don’t like what you see.
The simple truth is that you meet life‘s inevitable battles at precisely the level of your preparation.
That preparation is built upon the hard things you chose when you didn’t have to choose them:
• The early mornings you endured.
• The focus you engaged.
• The boundaries you held.
• The commitments you honored.
• The difficult conversations you initiated.
Every single time you embrace voluntary struggle, you prepare yourself for the involuntary struggle that will inevitably come.
You don’t become invincible. You become capable.
Capable of staying calm when others panic. Capable of thinking clearly when things fall apart. Capable of leading, serving, protecting, and persisting when the moment calls your name.
Because one day, it will.
A loss. A setback. A betrayal. An unexpected blow.
And when that day comes, you will not meet the moment at the level of your hopes. You will meet it at the level of your preparation.
So, choose the hard things today. Choose the habits, the disciplines, the conversations, the commitments. Choose the voluntary struggles.
This is how you face the chaos of war with an internal calm.
This is how you become, as Marcus Aurelius once wrote, “like the rock that the waves keep crashing over...unmoved and the raging of the sea falls still around it.”
This is how you stand ready when the battle arrives at your door.
Remember: It’s better to be a warrior in the garden than a gardener at war.
tweet
RT @SahilBloom: Everyone should read this story…
One day, a young warrior was walking to his training when he spotted his teacher, a master warrior, tending to plants in the garden.
He approached cautiously and stood quietly, not wanting to disturb the man from whom he had learned so much.
“What is it you want?” Asked the master warrior, without breaking focus from the plants.
The student replied, “Why do we train for war? Would it not be more tranquil and serene to be a gardener and tend the plants?"
The master paused, turned to the student, and smiled.
“Tending the garden is a relaxing pastime, but it does not prepare one for the inevitable battles of life. It’s easy to be calm in such a serene setting. It’s hard to be calm when under attack.”
The student nodded and turned away, satisfied with the answer, but the master wasn’t finished.
“It is far better to be a warrior tending his garden than a gardener at war.”
I think about that story almost every day.
Because here’s the truth we all know: Life is hard. Chaos, uncertainty, failure, struggle, pain, loss. All of those things are a natural part of being alive. They’re not good or bad. They just are.
And most of the time, you don’t get to choose the battles that come to your doorstep. You don’t get to pick the adversaries you prefer. You can’t negotiate the timing or the terms. There’s no “timeout” if you’re not ready. There’s no holding period if you don’t like what you see.
The simple truth is that you meet life‘s inevitable battles at precisely the level of your preparation.
That preparation is built upon the hard things you chose when you didn’t have to choose them:
• The early mornings you endured.
• The focus you engaged.
• The boundaries you held.
• The commitments you honored.
• The difficult conversations you initiated.
Every single time you embrace voluntary struggle, you prepare yourself for the involuntary struggle that will inevitably come.
You don’t become invincible. You become capable.
Capable of staying calm when others panic. Capable of thinking clearly when things fall apart. Capable of leading, serving, protecting, and persisting when the moment calls your name.
Because one day, it will.
A loss. A setback. A betrayal. An unexpected blow.
And when that day comes, you will not meet the moment at the level of your hopes. You will meet it at the level of your preparation.
So, choose the hard things today. Choose the habits, the disciplines, the conversations, the commitments. Choose the voluntary struggles.
This is how you face the chaos of war with an internal calm.
This is how you become, as Marcus Aurelius once wrote, “like the rock that the waves keep crashing over...unmoved and the raging of the sea falls still around it.”
This is how you stand ready when the battle arrives at your door.
Remember: It’s better to be a warrior in the garden than a gardener at war.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
EndGame Macro
The Chart That Quietly Explains America’s Next 20 Years
If you strip this thing down, it’s a simple story of a country that used to add workers every decade… and now mostly adds retirees and debt.
From the 1960s through about 2000, the U.S. grows by piling in millions of new people into the workforce. You can see it in the tall blue bars…huge gains in the 15–64 population and, more importantly, huge gains in actual employees. That’s the demographic engine that made 3–4% real growth feel normal.
The gray bars…the 65+ population are small. Retirees are steady, manageable, predictable.
And the red bars…marketable federal debt, barely move. We’re talking rounding error increases compared to today.
Then the chart flips. Starting in the 2000s, worker growth flattens. By the 2010s, it collapses. Meanwhile the 65+ population surges and the debt explodes upward. And the black line, the average Fed funds rate, sinks decade after decade. It’s not hard to see the connection…fewer workers, more retirees, more debt… and a central bank forced to keep rates lower just to keep the system moving.
What That Means Going Forward
This is the part people don’t always want to say out loud.
A country that isn’t adding many new workers can’t count on old school, momentum driven growth anymore. Trend growth slows. Productivity has to do more of the heavy lifting. Immigration matters more. And fiscal policy fills the gap, usually with borrowing, because politically that’s easier than asking anyone to sacrifice.
But that’s how you get to the right side of the chart…an aging population, a shrinking share of workers, and trillions of new debt layered on top. That’s not a temporary imbalance; it’s the new baseline.
And it tells you a lot about the future…
Rates will drift lower over time because the system can’t tolerate high ones for long.
Fiscal fights will get louder because the math gets harder. Growth will be more start and stop, with short bursts followed by long plateaus. And the U.S. economy will depend more on policy support than it did in the past.
This means a different era, one where demographics and debt shape the boundaries of what’s possible, and the old normal doesn’t come back just because we want it to.
That’s the message sitting inside this chart.
tweet
The Chart That Quietly Explains America’s Next 20 Years
If you strip this thing down, it’s a simple story of a country that used to add workers every decade… and now mostly adds retirees and debt.
From the 1960s through about 2000, the U.S. grows by piling in millions of new people into the workforce. You can see it in the tall blue bars…huge gains in the 15–64 population and, more importantly, huge gains in actual employees. That’s the demographic engine that made 3–4% real growth feel normal.
The gray bars…the 65+ population are small. Retirees are steady, manageable, predictable.
And the red bars…marketable federal debt, barely move. We’re talking rounding error increases compared to today.
Then the chart flips. Starting in the 2000s, worker growth flattens. By the 2010s, it collapses. Meanwhile the 65+ population surges and the debt explodes upward. And the black line, the average Fed funds rate, sinks decade after decade. It’s not hard to see the connection…fewer workers, more retirees, more debt… and a central bank forced to keep rates lower just to keep the system moving.
What That Means Going Forward
This is the part people don’t always want to say out loud.
A country that isn’t adding many new workers can’t count on old school, momentum driven growth anymore. Trend growth slows. Productivity has to do more of the heavy lifting. Immigration matters more. And fiscal policy fills the gap, usually with borrowing, because politically that’s easier than asking anyone to sacrifice.
But that’s how you get to the right side of the chart…an aging population, a shrinking share of workers, and trillions of new debt layered on top. That’s not a temporary imbalance; it’s the new baseline.
And it tells you a lot about the future…
Rates will drift lower over time because the system can’t tolerate high ones for long.
Fiscal fights will get louder because the math gets harder. Growth will be more start and stop, with short bursts followed by long plateaus. And the U.S. economy will depend more on policy support than it did in the past.
This means a different era, one where demographics and debt shape the boundaries of what’s possible, and the old normal doesn’t come back just because we want it to.
That’s the message sitting inside this chart.
America is F'd. Why you ask? In a system premised on perpetual growth in a finite world, somethings got to give (keep in mind the lack of growth...let alone decline...is a recession).
For each colored component, check chart below:
light blue=change per decade, 15 to 64yr/old population.
dark blue=change per decade, 15 to 64yr/old employees
(15 to 64yr/olds have about a 75% LFP rate and are at "full employment" presently...or for every 4 additional 15 to 64yr/olds, there are generally 3 net new employees).
grey=change per decade, 65+yr/old population.
white=change per decade, 65+yr/old employees
(65+yr/olds have about a 20% LFP rate and are at "full employment"...or for every 5 new 65+yr/olds, one net new employee).
Growth of working age has decelerated to very little while growth of elderly still accelerating...both at full employment but resulting employment growth will be pathetic based primarily on growth of elderly.
black=Average Federal Funds interest rate per decade
red=change per decade in marketable federal debt
(as potential growth in working age and working age employee's tanks, Federal Reserve drops interest rates to incentive higher governmental, corporate, and consumer debt to maintain the appearance of growth amid fast decelerating organic demand). Only question is how long the Fed Res and Fed Gov can get decelerating organic growth to keep accelerating synthetic, debt fueled consumption? tweet