WealthyReadings
RT @WealthySwings: $ALAB had a great consolidation, great breakout and is giving us a perfect retest today after strong earnings from Credo confirming the need and demand for their products.

Man only want one thing and it's disgusting: this. https://t.co/jjgFyybD40
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EndGame Macro
RT @DiMartinoBooth: Nothing like thorough analysis that cuts through the… well, you know.

Reading Between the Lines of the ISM Manufacturing Report: A Cooling Economy in Motion

If you read this month’s ISM report without overthinking it, it comes across pretty plainly: the manufacturing side of the economy is still slowing, and the parts that look healthy are being held up by things that won’t last. The PMI at 48.2 marks nine straight months of contraction, new orders fell again, backlogs shrank for the 38th month, and employment continues to roll over. Those aren’t noisy month to month wiggles. they’re long stretches of weakness, the kind that only show up when demand has been soft for a long time. You can hear it in the actual comments too: companies talking about cutting staff, customers refusing to plan ahead, and everyone tiptoeing around uncertainty. None of that sounds like a sector that’s confident about next year.

The Awkward Mix That Doesn’t Quite Add Up

At the same time, the report throws out a few numbers that don’t match the slowdown narrative on the surface. Production actually rose this month, and customers inventories are still marked as too low, which usually hints at future restocking. Prices are also still rising, not dramatically but enough to keep the prices index in the high 50s. On paper, that’s the kind of mix you’d expect from an expansion: higher output, low inventories, firm prices. But when you look at why these things are happening, the story gets more fragile. Production is up because factories are burning through old backlogs, not because new demand is coming in. Customers’ inventories are too low because they’re scared to commit, they’re ordering only what they need right now. And prices aren’t rising because buyers are flush with cash; they’re rising because tariffs and input costs are working their way through the system. It’s late cycle behavior dressed up as resilience.

Why This Can Slide Toward Deflation

My biggest takeaway from all of this is that the underlying momentum is fading, and the more companies rely on cutting labor and squeezing margins to keep things steady, the closer they get to the point where something finally breaks. When backlogs run out, and 38 months of contraction tells you they already have production eventually has to fall. When customers stay cautious long enough, low inventories stop being bullish and start being a sign that people simply don’t want to hold excess goods. And when firms keep trying to raise prices into weakening demand, there’s a point where the pricing power just cracks. That’s how an inflation story quietly flips into a disinflation or even deflation story: first volumes roll over, then margins, then prices. You can already see the outline. The report doesn’t scream recession or collapse, it’s quieter than that but it’s full of the kind of slow, grinding weakness that eventually forces companies to lower prices because demand just isn’t there anymore. And once that shift happens, it tends to move faster than people expect. - EndGame Macro
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
MercadoLibre is trading near its lowest multiple in the past 2 years (P/E & FCF Yield) 💸

Here’s $MELI projected CAGR through 2028 assuming EPS hits $106.00 (-10% below consensus):

36x P/E: $3816💵 | ~20% CAGR

34x P/E: $3604💵 | ~18% CAGR

32x P/E: $3392💵 | ~16% CAGR

30x P/E: $3180💵 | ~14% CAGR

28x P/E: $2968💵 | ~11% CAGR
___

Even assuming EPS comes in 10% below consensus and a 28% multiple contraction (ending at 30x), $MELI still offers compelling return potential
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Anna Paulina Luna has filed a discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.

This is huge, it will force every member to take an official stance.
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EndGame Macro
Forget the Headlines The 3 Month Treasury Just Told You the Truth.

The 3 month Treasury is basically the market’s closest read on the Fed. It sits right on top of the policy rate, so when it starts drifting meaningfully below that range, it’s the market’s way of saying, “We’re already looking past today’s rate and pricing where the Fed is headed next.”

Historically, it’s also one of the key pieces in recession tracking. When short rates fall while long rates stay sticky, you’re almost always in that late cycle zone where the Fed shifts from tightening to cushioning.

What It’s Telling You Right Now

Given the timing, this move isn’t subtle at all. The Fed has already cut twice this year in September and October and officially ended QT yesterday. They’ve now moved from shrinking the balance sheet to reinvesting everything into T-bills, and the market sees an extremely high likelihood of another cut in a matter of days.

That context is exactly why the 3 month hitting a new 52 week low matters. The front end is basically saying the tightening phase is over. The rate hikes are behind you and traders are now pricing in a real easing cycle, not a one off adjustment.

What jumps out most is how sharply the 3 month has fallen while the 10 year is still sitting around 4%. That’s the classic pattern you get when the Fed begins cutting into a slowing economy, not because things have stabilized, but because the pressure is already showing through the data. Bills trade below fed funds when the market thinks the Fed will have to keep going.

So the way I read it, the 3 month is the cleanest confirmation so far that the cycle has turned. The peak in cash yields is behind us. The Fed is shifting from restraint to support. And the bond market is quietly acknowledging that the economy needs that support sooner rather than later.

It’s late cycle behavior dressed up in a simple number.

3 month T-Bill…another 52 week low. https://t.co/Gp6VBD7vzd - Edward Dowd
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Tim Burchett has signed the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/ogqiJPLKEo
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AkhenOsiris
Anthropic:

"Claude Code reached $1 billion in run-rate revenue in only 6 months, and bringing the Bun team into Anthropic means we can build the infrastructure to compound that momentum and keep pace with the exponential growth in AI adoption."

https://t.co/SX8Ts54Z31
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AkhenOsiris
Hotel reservations by Chinese tourists visiting Japan have dropped by more than half in recent weeks, the latest indication that deteriorating relations between Beijing and Tokyo are impacting Japan's tourism.

Hotel reservations from China between Nov. 21 and Nov. 27 plunged by 57% compared with Nov. 6 through Nov. 12, according to the booking management platform Tripla.

Overall hotel bookings have declined 9% over the same period.

The fallout stems from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's comments early in November that an invasion of Taiwan could escalate into a situation that requires Japan to mobilize its defense forces. China's response included telling citizens to refrain from traveling to Japan.

So far, there has not been a significant drop in prices. The average daily rate for reservations made in the week through Nov. 27 increased 1.1% nationwide.

However, the rate declined 9.4% in Kyoto prefecture.

Because of the holiday season, hotel unit prices in December will be "relatively high," according to a source from Imperial Hotel Osaka. Yet many hotels are taking a wait-and-see approach to their pricing strategy out of concern that the diplomatic row may become protracted.

China is crucial to Japan's tourism industry. A total of 10.22 million people came from mainland China and Hong Kong between January to October. This far surpasses the 7.66 million travelers from South Korea and the 5.63 million visitors from Taiwan.

The Kansai region, encompassing Osaka and Kyoto, once welcomed a large number of Chinese tourists. Now, the region is struggling to cope with the sudden absence of travelers.

"I believe the number of Chinese visitors has decreased by 20% to 30%," said a fish seller in Kyoto. "I think this will affect my store's sales."
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Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Representative Elise Stefanik will be signing the new discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban. https://t.co/KlLKuxU5Li
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