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EndGame Macro
🇲🇽 Mexico’s Factory Engine Is Flashing a Warning
When you look at this chart, you’re not just seeing a bad month. You’re seeing a decade long arc where Mexico’s manufacturing base quietly shifted from steady expansion to something much more fragile. The PMI used to live in the mid 50s. Now it can’t stay above 50 for long, and the latest print drops again into contraction. That’s a sign that the underlying engine just isn’t firing the way it used to.
And the timing matters. 3 straight months of contraction now, and it’s not just one category. New orders are soft, exports are sliding, companies are cutting headcount, and costs are rising at the same time. It’s the kind of setup where managers start tapping the brakes because they don’t trust the environment in front of them.
A Squeeze from Both Sides of the Border
Yes, tariffs play a role, but it’s not as simple as the U.S. raised duties, so Mexico fell apart. What’s really happening is a two front squeeze. On one side, Mexican exporters are facing new frictions getting goods into the U.S. especially anything that fails USMCA content rules or requires steel, aluminum, or certain auto parts. Margins get thinner, production plans become uncertain, and suddenly the optimism that carried the nearshoring wave starts to fade.
On the other side, Mexico raised its own tariffs on a long list of imported inputs from countries like China, Korea, and India. That makes raw materials and components more expensive for local manufacturers just as the U.S. market is getting tougher. The PMI captures that stress perfectly: input costs rise, but firms can’t pass the pain along because demand isn’t strong enough to support higher prices.
Put those together and you get the classic manufacturing slowdown. It’s not a collapse, it’s a grind. A slow tightening of conditions until the average factory manager stops hiring, delays capex, and waits for clarity.
The Nearshoring Boom Is Real But It’s Not Broad
The tricky part is that Mexico can still post record export numbers while the PMI contracts. And that’s exactly what’s happening. A handful of large, high value sectors tied to U.S. tech, data centers, and advanced manufacturing are thriving. They’re big enough to push export totals higher. But the broader industrial ecosystem like the mid sized suppliers, the old line manufacturers, the firms relying on cheap imported inputs is struggling. And the PMI, which asks managers across the spectrum how they feel, reflects the weakness underneath the headline success.
This is the part that gets missed in the surface level take. Mexico didn’t suddenly lose the nearshoring story. It’s just that the gains are concentrated in a few places, while the rest of the manufacturing base is fighting rising costs, fragile infrastructure, expensive electricity, and unpredictable regulation.
The Bigger Picture: Mexico Is at a Crossroads
When a chart trends like this…lower highs, weaker rebounds, and quicker drops below 50 it tells you the country is caught between opportunity and limitation. The opportunity is obvious: the U.S. wants more supply chains close to home, and Mexico is the natural landing spot. But the limitations are just as clear. Energy shortages, water constraints, security issues, and regulatory uncertainty all make it harder for Mexico to convert nearshoring from a headline into a truly broad, national industrial revival.
So this PMI print isn’t just about tariffs or one bad month. It’s the symptom of a deeper tension: Mexico is benefiting from the global realignment, but it’s also bumping into its own ceilings. Unless those structural issues are tackled head on, the story will keep looking like this…headline exports doing great while the average factory quietly falls behind.
It’s a moment where Mexico could cement itself as the indispensable partner in North American manufacturing. Or it could let the window slip. This chart is the early warning that the clock is ticking.
America's o[...]
🇲🇽 Mexico’s Factory Engine Is Flashing a Warning
When you look at this chart, you’re not just seeing a bad month. You’re seeing a decade long arc where Mexico’s manufacturing base quietly shifted from steady expansion to something much more fragile. The PMI used to live in the mid 50s. Now it can’t stay above 50 for long, and the latest print drops again into contraction. That’s a sign that the underlying engine just isn’t firing the way it used to.
And the timing matters. 3 straight months of contraction now, and it’s not just one category. New orders are soft, exports are sliding, companies are cutting headcount, and costs are rising at the same time. It’s the kind of setup where managers start tapping the brakes because they don’t trust the environment in front of them.
A Squeeze from Both Sides of the Border
Yes, tariffs play a role, but it’s not as simple as the U.S. raised duties, so Mexico fell apart. What’s really happening is a two front squeeze. On one side, Mexican exporters are facing new frictions getting goods into the U.S. especially anything that fails USMCA content rules or requires steel, aluminum, or certain auto parts. Margins get thinner, production plans become uncertain, and suddenly the optimism that carried the nearshoring wave starts to fade.
On the other side, Mexico raised its own tariffs on a long list of imported inputs from countries like China, Korea, and India. That makes raw materials and components more expensive for local manufacturers just as the U.S. market is getting tougher. The PMI captures that stress perfectly: input costs rise, but firms can’t pass the pain along because demand isn’t strong enough to support higher prices.
Put those together and you get the classic manufacturing slowdown. It’s not a collapse, it’s a grind. A slow tightening of conditions until the average factory manager stops hiring, delays capex, and waits for clarity.
The Nearshoring Boom Is Real But It’s Not Broad
The tricky part is that Mexico can still post record export numbers while the PMI contracts. And that’s exactly what’s happening. A handful of large, high value sectors tied to U.S. tech, data centers, and advanced manufacturing are thriving. They’re big enough to push export totals higher. But the broader industrial ecosystem like the mid sized suppliers, the old line manufacturers, the firms relying on cheap imported inputs is struggling. And the PMI, which asks managers across the spectrum how they feel, reflects the weakness underneath the headline success.
This is the part that gets missed in the surface level take. Mexico didn’t suddenly lose the nearshoring story. It’s just that the gains are concentrated in a few places, while the rest of the manufacturing base is fighting rising costs, fragile infrastructure, expensive electricity, and unpredictable regulation.
The Bigger Picture: Mexico Is at a Crossroads
When a chart trends like this…lower highs, weaker rebounds, and quicker drops below 50 it tells you the country is caught between opportunity and limitation. The opportunity is obvious: the U.S. wants more supply chains close to home, and Mexico is the natural landing spot. But the limitations are just as clear. Energy shortages, water constraints, security issues, and regulatory uncertainty all make it harder for Mexico to convert nearshoring from a headline into a truly broad, national industrial revival.
So this PMI print isn’t just about tariffs or one bad month. It’s the symptom of a deeper tension: Mexico is benefiting from the global realignment, but it’s also bumping into its own ceilings. Unless those structural issues are tackled head on, the story will keep looking like this…headline exports doing great while the average factory quietly falls behind.
It’s a moment where Mexico could cement itself as the indispensable partner in North American manufacturing. Or it could let the window slip. This chart is the early warning that the clock is ticking.
America's o[...]
Offshore
EndGame Macro 🇲🇽 Mexico’s Factory Engine Is Flashing a Warning When you look at this chart, you’re not just seeing a bad month. You’re seeing a decade long arc where Mexico’s manufacturing base quietly shifted from steady expansion to something much more…
ther neighbor is also getting pummeled by tariffs - Mexican manufacturing sector contracts for 3rd month in a row w/ jobs, sales, new orders, production, exports, and optimism all declining in Nov while price pressures rose; really no good news in the report... https://t.co/o527iKAZUv - E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. tweet
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WealthyReadings
Two predictions I’ll put money on.
1️⃣ $BTC will bottom sooner rather than later.
2️⃣ $MSTR will be the best performing asset in the next 6 months.
You don’t need 20 trades to make a year.
You just need one well-timed conviction play.
This will be mine.
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Two predictions I’ll put money on.
1️⃣ $BTC will bottom sooner rather than later.
2️⃣ $MSTR will be the best performing asset in the next 6 months.
You don’t need 20 trades to make a year.
You just need one well-timed conviction play.
This will be mine.
$MSTR is down 68% from its ATH. Not putting this name on your watchlist is literally saying no to money.
Social media will keep screaming about bankruptcy while not understanding its debt structure. The reality is that:
🔹Trades below 1x NAV
🔹No notes mature until 2028
🔹Conversion price for the nearest debt is $183
The noise will stay loud. But anyone who spends more than 5min studying this name will see it has the potential to outperform $BTC in returns, sooner rather than later.
It isn’t time yet. But again, not putting it on our watchlist is like aying no to money. tweet
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Fiscal.ai
A DoorDash board member just purchased $100 million worth of shares in the open market.
$DASH https://t.co/bU2BJBBdSk
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A DoorDash board member just purchased $100 million worth of shares in the open market.
$DASH https://t.co/bU2BJBBdSk
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WealthyReadings
Too many people buy stocks simply because they think the company is great.
But every single buy should come with the answer to one very simple question: Why would that stock go up?
One of the most common answer is "because it’s cheap". Buying a stock because it's "cheap" is certainly one of the biggest source of underperformance in the markets.
If you do not have an answer and form a clear thesis, then there’s no reason to be buying that stock at that moment. Your liquidity is always better elsewhere.
Liking a company or following a great business does not mean it will end up being a great investment.
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Too many people buy stocks simply because they think the company is great.
But every single buy should come with the answer to one very simple question: Why would that stock go up?
One of the most common answer is "because it’s cheap". Buying a stock because it's "cheap" is certainly one of the biggest source of underperformance in the markets.
If you do not have an answer and form a clear thesis, then there’s no reason to be buying that stock at that moment. Your liquidity is always better elsewhere.
Liking a company or following a great business does not mean it will end up being a great investment.
tweet
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Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: Did you know if you click this button you see our Changelog?
We're sprinting HARD rest of year expect a lot of great stuff being added every few days. https://t.co/GohLfC1IbQ
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RT @BradoCapital: Did you know if you click this button you see our Changelog?
We're sprinting HARD rest of year expect a lot of great stuff being added every few days. https://t.co/GohLfC1IbQ
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Quiver Quantitative
We've been reporting on Representative Tim Moore's recent purchases of Intel stock.
Moore sits on the House Subcommittee on AI.
$INTC has now risen 121% since his August 1st purchase. https://t.co/0kXDNgwBZp
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We've been reporting on Representative Tim Moore's recent purchases of Intel stock.
Moore sits on the House Subcommittee on AI.
$INTC has now risen 121% since his August 1st purchase. https://t.co/0kXDNgwBZp
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