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EndGame Macro
RT @onechancefreedm: The Charts Are Saying One Thing: Crypto Front Loaded a Liquidity Story That Hasn’t Arrived Yet
If you zoom out and look at all of these side by side, there’s a single story running through them: the air is slowly coming out of a market that ran too far, too fast, on a narrative that hasn’t materialized yet.
SOL and XRP both tell you the same thing in different shapes. They each had their big run, sentiment got loud, and then the bid faded. The rallies over the last few months weren’t new demand, they were aftershocks. Every bounce has been weaker than the last, and the market caps have been grinding lower in that way that doesn’t look dramatic on a single day, but looks unmistakable over a year. That’s what a slow, steady risk off shift looks like.
BTC’s weekly structure makes it even clearer. Price losing the 50 week moving average, RSI rolling over, momentum drifting from controlled strength into sloppy weakness, that’s not a blow off top, it’s a market that ran ahead of the macro backdrop and is now slipping back to meet it. When you see volatility rising into downside, you’re not watching people sell because they suddenly hate Bitcoin; you’re watching crowded leverage unwind in real time.
And the BTC monthly chart seals it. A 20% drawdown with a near vertical drop tells you there was too much leverage leaning in one direction, and the moment macro wobbled without injecting liquidity, velocity cooling, that positioning got flushed.
What It All Means Together
The takeaway is that crypto priced in the idea of easier liquidity long before liquidity actually arrived. Markets traded the story, not the reality. And now the reality is catching up.
Money is still expensive. Activity is slowing. Liquidity exists in the system, sure but it’s sitting in T-bills and money markets, not chasing beta. Until the real economy actually feels the effects of rate cuts and easier conditions which historically takes quarters, not weeks every rally is going to feel heavy, and every air pocket is going to hit harder than it should.
This is a market adjusting back to the world it’s actually in, not the one it hoped would show up overnight.
Highly recommend giving @levenson_david
a follow.
tweet
RT @onechancefreedm: The Charts Are Saying One Thing: Crypto Front Loaded a Liquidity Story That Hasn’t Arrived Yet
If you zoom out and look at all of these side by side, there’s a single story running through them: the air is slowly coming out of a market that ran too far, too fast, on a narrative that hasn’t materialized yet.
SOL and XRP both tell you the same thing in different shapes. They each had their big run, sentiment got loud, and then the bid faded. The rallies over the last few months weren’t new demand, they were aftershocks. Every bounce has been weaker than the last, and the market caps have been grinding lower in that way that doesn’t look dramatic on a single day, but looks unmistakable over a year. That’s what a slow, steady risk off shift looks like.
BTC’s weekly structure makes it even clearer. Price losing the 50 week moving average, RSI rolling over, momentum drifting from controlled strength into sloppy weakness, that’s not a blow off top, it’s a market that ran ahead of the macro backdrop and is now slipping back to meet it. When you see volatility rising into downside, you’re not watching people sell because they suddenly hate Bitcoin; you’re watching crowded leverage unwind in real time.
And the BTC monthly chart seals it. A 20% drawdown with a near vertical drop tells you there was too much leverage leaning in one direction, and the moment macro wobbled without injecting liquidity, velocity cooling, that positioning got flushed.
What It All Means Together
The takeaway is that crypto priced in the idea of easier liquidity long before liquidity actually arrived. Markets traded the story, not the reality. And now the reality is catching up.
Money is still expensive. Activity is slowing. Liquidity exists in the system, sure but it’s sitting in T-bills and money markets, not chasing beta. Until the real economy actually feels the effects of rate cuts and easier conditions which historically takes quarters, not weeks every rally is going to feel heavy, and every air pocket is going to hit harder than it should.
This is a market adjusting back to the world it’s actually in, not the one it hoped would show up overnight.
Highly recommend giving @levenson_david
a follow.
https://t.co/2MAdCZxL4t tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Earlier this year, a stock trade by Representative Robert Bresnahan caught our eye.
We posted this report.
$CRDO has now risen 169% since his trade.
It just rose another 12% in after-hours trading. https://t.co/wPdOQ123PR
tweet
Earlier this year, a stock trade by Representative Robert Bresnahan caught our eye.
We posted this report.
$CRDO has now risen 169% since his trade.
It just rose another 12% in after-hours trading. https://t.co/wPdOQ123PR
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Reading Between the Lines of the ISM Manufacturing Report: A Cooling Economy in Motion
If you read this month’s ISM report without overthinking it, it comes across pretty plainly: the manufacturing side of the economy is still slowing, and the parts that look healthy are being held up by things that won’t last. The PMI at 48.2 marks nine straight months of contraction, new orders fell again, backlogs shrank for the 38th month, and employment continues to roll over. Those aren’t noisy month to month wiggles. they’re long stretches of weakness, the kind that only show up when demand has been soft for a long time. You can hear it in the actual comments too: companies talking about cutting staff, customers refusing to plan ahead, and everyone tiptoeing around uncertainty. None of that sounds like a sector that’s confident about next year.
The Awkward Mix That Doesn’t Quite Add Up
At the same time, the report throws out a few numbers that don’t match the slowdown narrative on the surface. Production actually rose this month, and customers inventories are still marked as too low, which usually hints at future restocking. Prices are also still rising, not dramatically but enough to keep the prices index in the high 50s. On paper, that’s the kind of mix you’d expect from an expansion: higher output, low inventories, firm prices. But when you look at why these things are happening, the story gets more fragile. Production is up because factories are burning through old backlogs, not because new demand is coming in. Customers’ inventories are too low because they’re scared to commit, they’re ordering only what they need right now. And prices aren’t rising because buyers are flush with cash; they’re rising because tariffs and input costs are working their way through the system. It’s late cycle behavior dressed up as resilience.
Why This Can Slide Toward Deflation
My biggest takeaway from all of this is that the underlying momentum is fading, and the more companies rely on cutting labor and squeezing margins to keep things steady, the closer they get to the point where something finally breaks. When backlogs run out, and 38 months of contraction tells you they already have production eventually has to fall. When customers stay cautious long enough, low inventories stop being bullish and start being a sign that people simply don’t want to hold excess goods. And when firms keep trying to raise prices into weakening demand, there’s a point where the pricing power just cracks. That’s how an inflation story quietly flips into a disinflation or even deflation story: first volumes roll over, then margins, then prices. You can already see the outline. The report doesn’t scream recession or collapse, it’s quieter than that but it’s full of the kind of slow, grinding weakness that eventually forces companies to lower prices because demand just isn’t there anymore. And once that shift happens, it tends to move faster than people expect.
tweet
Reading Between the Lines of the ISM Manufacturing Report: A Cooling Economy in Motion
If you read this month’s ISM report without overthinking it, it comes across pretty plainly: the manufacturing side of the economy is still slowing, and the parts that look healthy are being held up by things that won’t last. The PMI at 48.2 marks nine straight months of contraction, new orders fell again, backlogs shrank for the 38th month, and employment continues to roll over. Those aren’t noisy month to month wiggles. they’re long stretches of weakness, the kind that only show up when demand has been soft for a long time. You can hear it in the actual comments too: companies talking about cutting staff, customers refusing to plan ahead, and everyone tiptoeing around uncertainty. None of that sounds like a sector that’s confident about next year.
The Awkward Mix That Doesn’t Quite Add Up
At the same time, the report throws out a few numbers that don’t match the slowdown narrative on the surface. Production actually rose this month, and customers inventories are still marked as too low, which usually hints at future restocking. Prices are also still rising, not dramatically but enough to keep the prices index in the high 50s. On paper, that’s the kind of mix you’d expect from an expansion: higher output, low inventories, firm prices. But when you look at why these things are happening, the story gets more fragile. Production is up because factories are burning through old backlogs, not because new demand is coming in. Customers’ inventories are too low because they’re scared to commit, they’re ordering only what they need right now. And prices aren’t rising because buyers are flush with cash; they’re rising because tariffs and input costs are working their way through the system. It’s late cycle behavior dressed up as resilience.
Why This Can Slide Toward Deflation
My biggest takeaway from all of this is that the underlying momentum is fading, and the more companies rely on cutting labor and squeezing margins to keep things steady, the closer they get to the point where something finally breaks. When backlogs run out, and 38 months of contraction tells you they already have production eventually has to fall. When customers stay cautious long enough, low inventories stop being bullish and start being a sign that people simply don’t want to hold excess goods. And when firms keep trying to raise prices into weakening demand, there’s a point where the pricing power just cracks. That’s how an inflation story quietly flips into a disinflation or even deflation story: first volumes roll over, then margins, then prices. You can already see the outline. The report doesn’t scream recession or collapse, it’s quieter than that but it’s full of the kind of slow, grinding weakness that eventually forces companies to lower prices because demand just isn’t there anymore. And once that shift happens, it tends to move faster than people expect.
tweet
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EndGame Macro
The Bill That Tells the Truth About the Economy
When you look at overdue utility balances climbing toward $800, it’s about a household budget that’s been stretched past its breaking point. Utilities are as first priority as it gets. So when past due amounts rise this steadily, it usually means families are short roping cash flow month after month, paying what they can, and rolling the rest forward.
A big part of it is simply cost. Electricity and gas have both gotten more expensive through a slow drip of higher fuel costs, more grid upgrades, and a bigger base load from things like data centers. And then the weather throws its own tax on top…hotter summers, colder winters, longer stretches where the AC or heat has to stay running. You don’t get to opt out of climate on a tight month.
The Hidden Weight Behind the Number
But the truth is, overdue utility bills are almost never just about utilities. They’re the canary for everything else weighing on households right now. Property taxes have jumped in a lot of places as assessed values and local budgets balloon. Insurance premiums are spiking, especially in states getting battered by storms, fires, or just higher rebuilding costs. Credit cards are more expensive, auto loans are more expensive, student loans are back, and delinquencies on all of them are creeping up.
People are falling behind because the fixed cost of staying afloat has gotten heavier across the board. Utilities are simply where the stress becomes visible first, because you can stretch that payment in a way you can’t stretch your mortgage or your insurance renewal.
So that $789 number isn’t just an energy story. It’s a window into households doing quiet triage every month…choosing which essentials get paid now and which get pushed to next time. And when that becomes normal, it tells you a lot about the real state of the economy, regardless of what the top line data says.
tweet
The Bill That Tells the Truth About the Economy
When you look at overdue utility balances climbing toward $800, it’s about a household budget that’s been stretched past its breaking point. Utilities are as first priority as it gets. So when past due amounts rise this steadily, it usually means families are short roping cash flow month after month, paying what they can, and rolling the rest forward.
A big part of it is simply cost. Electricity and gas have both gotten more expensive through a slow drip of higher fuel costs, more grid upgrades, and a bigger base load from things like data centers. And then the weather throws its own tax on top…hotter summers, colder winters, longer stretches where the AC or heat has to stay running. You don’t get to opt out of climate on a tight month.
The Hidden Weight Behind the Number
But the truth is, overdue utility bills are almost never just about utilities. They’re the canary for everything else weighing on households right now. Property taxes have jumped in a lot of places as assessed values and local budgets balloon. Insurance premiums are spiking, especially in states getting battered by storms, fires, or just higher rebuilding costs. Credit cards are more expensive, auto loans are more expensive, student loans are back, and delinquencies on all of them are creeping up.
People are falling behind because the fixed cost of staying afloat has gotten heavier across the board. Utilities are simply where the stress becomes visible first, because you can stretch that payment in a way you can’t stretch your mortgage or your insurance renewal.
So that $789 number isn’t just an energy story. It’s a window into households doing quiet triage every month…choosing which essentials get paid now and which get pushed to next time. And when that becomes normal, it tells you a lot about the real state of the economy, regardless of what the top line data says.
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
RT @BradoCapital: NOW LIVE!
For 🇨🇦Canadian stocks and 🌎 ADRs, the same features that are available now on the plaform for US stocks.
Which means:
1) Data instantly available after earnings
2) Click-thru to source filing (as demo'd here)
3) As reported vs. standardized financials
4) Adjusted financials
5) Longer data history (20 years)
tweet
RT @BradoCapital: NOW LIVE!
For 🇨🇦Canadian stocks and 🌎 ADRs, the same features that are available now on the plaform for US stocks.
Which means:
1) Data instantly available after earnings
2) Click-thru to source filing (as demo'd here)
3) As reported vs. standardized financials
4) Adjusted financials
5) Longer data history (20 years)
Officially launching next week 👀
For Canadian stocks and ADRs, the same features that are available now for US stocks.
Which means:
Data instantly available after earnings
Click-thru to source filing (as demo'd here)
As reported vs. standardized financials
Adjusted financials
Longer data history (20 years) tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Moment the Ladder Turns Into a Cliff
This chart is following a single mom as she earns more money and showing how her total resources change, meaning her paycheck plus whatever help she qualifies for. And the picture it paints is awkward but familiar. At very low incomes, the paycheck is tiny, but the support system is big. As she earns more, the paycheck grows, but the help fades. That part makes sense. The problem is how it fades…not smoothly, but in big steps. One program drops here, another falls off there, and suddenly a raise that should move her forward ends up barely moving her at all or even pushing her backward.
The chart highlights that moment around $29,000–$35,000 where she’s actually better off staying put than moving up the income ladder. It’s not because she’s doing anything wrong. It’s because the system treats every benefit separately. When those separate phase outs stack on top of one another, you don’t get a gentle slope, you get a cliff.
Why It Happens And Why It Matters
None of this is because anyone designed a trap on purpose. It’s what happens when you build safety net programs in different decades, with different rules, different income thresholds, and no coordination. Each program thinks it’s doing the logical thing…”If you earn above X, you need less help.” But when you stack five or six of those cutoffs together, you create moments where a family loses thousands of dollars in assistance right as they gain only a few thousand in wages.
You see this in real life all the time. Parents who want to take more hours but fear losing childcare. People who turn down a raise because it pushes them over the Medicaid line. Households that feel like they’re climbing a ladder where a couple of rungs are missing. And this isn’t all about laziness or gaming the system, it’s about stability. When a small jump in income risks losing healthcare, housing help, or childcare, the rational choice often becomes staying exactly where you are.
So the deeper message isn’t that help doesn’t matter. It’s that the way we phase it out can unintentionally punish progress. The chart is a reminder of something intuitive and human…upward mobility shouldn’t require stepping off a cliff just to reach the next step.
tweet
The Moment the Ladder Turns Into a Cliff
This chart is following a single mom as she earns more money and showing how her total resources change, meaning her paycheck plus whatever help she qualifies for. And the picture it paints is awkward but familiar. At very low incomes, the paycheck is tiny, but the support system is big. As she earns more, the paycheck grows, but the help fades. That part makes sense. The problem is how it fades…not smoothly, but in big steps. One program drops here, another falls off there, and suddenly a raise that should move her forward ends up barely moving her at all or even pushing her backward.
The chart highlights that moment around $29,000–$35,000 where she’s actually better off staying put than moving up the income ladder. It’s not because she’s doing anything wrong. It’s because the system treats every benefit separately. When those separate phase outs stack on top of one another, you don’t get a gentle slope, you get a cliff.
Why It Happens And Why It Matters
None of this is because anyone designed a trap on purpose. It’s what happens when you build safety net programs in different decades, with different rules, different income thresholds, and no coordination. Each program thinks it’s doing the logical thing…”If you earn above X, you need less help.” But when you stack five or six of those cutoffs together, you create moments where a family loses thousands of dollars in assistance right as they gain only a few thousand in wages.
You see this in real life all the time. Parents who want to take more hours but fear losing childcare. People who turn down a raise because it pushes them over the Medicaid line. Households that feel like they’re climbing a ladder where a couple of rungs are missing. And this isn’t all about laziness or gaming the system, it’s about stability. When a small jump in income risks losing healthcare, housing help, or childcare, the rational choice often becomes staying exactly where you are.
So the deeper message isn’t that help doesn’t matter. It’s that the way we phase it out can unintentionally punish progress. The chart is a reminder of something intuitive and human…upward mobility shouldn’t require stepping off a cliff just to reach the next step.
If the goal of the $140K Poverty Line/Valley of Death discourse is to highlight the cumulative effect of tax & benefit cliffs, that would be great! These are well-known among policy analysts, and you can literally find hundreds of charts showing this issue. Here is a famous one: https://t.co/DjBQoPbbgM tweet
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EndGame Macro
The Slow, Steady Undoing of America’s Drinking Culture
In the U.S. For decades, roughly two thirds of adults drank alcohol. It wiggled a bit, but it stayed in that band. Now it’s dropped to the low 50s, the lowest since the 1930s. That doesn’t mean America suddenly went sober. It means more people are deciding at the margin that they are good without it, and that adds up.
A lot of that is simple awareness. Younger people grew up hearing that alcohol isn’t just a harmless treat; it’s tied to cancer, heart disease, bad sleep, and worse anxiety. They’ve watched family or friends go too far with it. And because mental health is something they actually talk about, they connect the dots…“I feel worse when I drink a lot, so why build my social life around it?” So the social script shifts. Drinking is still common, but not drinking is no longer weird. It’s just another choice.
Control, Money, and Better Alternatives
The modern environment pushes in the same direction. Everyone knows that one bad night can end up online forever. That makes being obviously drunk in public feel riskier than it used to. People want more control over how they show up…at parties, at work events, on dates and alcohol sits right in the middle of that trade off between fun and reputation.
Then there’s the money side. For younger adults especially, budgets are tight…rent, loans, food, everything. Alcohol is an easy line item to cut if you’re trying to save. And unlike past generations, you’re not stuck choosing between drinking and staying home with water. There are non alcoholic beers and spirits that don’t feel childish and mocktails that actually taste good. If your goal is to relax, socialize, or take the edge off, you’ve got more options now than just a drink.
Add in a more diverse country, with more communities where alcohol was never central to social life, and the trend in the chart makes sense. It isn’t one big moral awakening; it’s a lot of small, practical decisions converging. People are looking at what alcohol costs them in health, in money, in control and a slightly larger share is deciding the trade off isn’t worth it. The line on the chart is just that quiet shift turned into numbers.
tweet
The Slow, Steady Undoing of America’s Drinking Culture
In the U.S. For decades, roughly two thirds of adults drank alcohol. It wiggled a bit, but it stayed in that band. Now it’s dropped to the low 50s, the lowest since the 1930s. That doesn’t mean America suddenly went sober. It means more people are deciding at the margin that they are good without it, and that adds up.
A lot of that is simple awareness. Younger people grew up hearing that alcohol isn’t just a harmless treat; it’s tied to cancer, heart disease, bad sleep, and worse anxiety. They’ve watched family or friends go too far with it. And because mental health is something they actually talk about, they connect the dots…“I feel worse when I drink a lot, so why build my social life around it?” So the social script shifts. Drinking is still common, but not drinking is no longer weird. It’s just another choice.
Control, Money, and Better Alternatives
The modern environment pushes in the same direction. Everyone knows that one bad night can end up online forever. That makes being obviously drunk in public feel riskier than it used to. People want more control over how they show up…at parties, at work events, on dates and alcohol sits right in the middle of that trade off between fun and reputation.
Then there’s the money side. For younger adults especially, budgets are tight…rent, loans, food, everything. Alcohol is an easy line item to cut if you’re trying to save. And unlike past generations, you’re not stuck choosing between drinking and staying home with water. There are non alcoholic beers and spirits that don’t feel childish and mocktails that actually taste good. If your goal is to relax, socialize, or take the edge off, you’ve got more options now than just a drink.
Add in a more diverse country, with more communities where alcohol was never central to social life, and the trend in the chart makes sense. It isn’t one big moral awakening; it’s a lot of small, practical decisions converging. People are looking at what alcohol costs them in health, in money, in control and a slightly larger share is deciding the trade off isn’t worth it. The line on the chart is just that quiet shift turned into numbers.
The percentage of Americans drinking is at the lowest since 1939 and I'm 100% here for it. Alcohol is poison. https://t.co/xjRNucr7ze tweet