AkhenOsiris
$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/XbmqvBCIBT
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https://t.co/XbmqvBCIBT
BREAKING: MicroStrategy, $MSTR, falls over -7% on the day to its lowest level since October 2024.
The stock is now down -55% since October 6th in one of its steepest declines on record. https://t.co/Tx79iTLOhC tweet
Offshore
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Wasteland Capital
Bottom 15 of the Nasdaq 100 YTD.
Some real trash on here but only 12 stocks with a >20% drawdown, not bad. $TTD at the far bottom. Haha! Itoldyouso exhibit 5398.
If your fund manager was long any of this sh*t through the whole year, take your hard-earned money out today. Now. https://t.co/udiGtkMgvk
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Bottom 15 of the Nasdaq 100 YTD.
Some real trash on here but only 12 stocks with a >20% drawdown, not bad. $TTD at the far bottom. Haha! Itoldyouso exhibit 5398.
If your fund manager was long any of this sh*t through the whole year, take your hard-earned money out today. Now. https://t.co/udiGtkMgvk
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Offshore
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WealthyReadings
The $GOOG Cloud $AMZN AWS partnership isnโt getting nearly enough attention on here.
It is a massive game changer with lots of implications.
Cloud interconnectivity has been a major bottleneck for more than a decade, slowing development with technical complexity & adding massive costs for companies operating across multiple cloud providers - necessary for security and reliability.
A fast & native interconnect between two of the most used clouds changes that. It simplifies multi-cloud architectures and can save companies billions while giving them far more flexibility in how they deploy and manage compute workloads.
For example, companies will now be able to leverage compute features from both AWS and Google Cloud for the same app and move data between them quickly and cheaply. That means they can use the best tool from each provider without being locked into one ecosystem or forced into expensive & slow data transfers.
The effect on compute demand is tough to predict. Bears could say that companies will no longer need to duplicate workloads across clouds, reducing overall compute need. Bulls can argue that this bridge unlocks new use cases that were previously too slow, complex or costly, driving more demand, not less.
Another key angle: $GOOG TPUs become much more accessible. AWS customers can now offload only the portions of their workloads that benefit from TPU acceleration, without migrating their entire stack to Google Cloud and commiting there.
It will take time for companies to migrate and use this feature but make no mistake: this is a massive game changer.
The world of tech and innovation became easier, faster and cheaper today. And thatโs a big deal.
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The $GOOG Cloud $AMZN AWS partnership isnโt getting nearly enough attention on here.
It is a massive game changer with lots of implications.
Cloud interconnectivity has been a major bottleneck for more than a decade, slowing development with technical complexity & adding massive costs for companies operating across multiple cloud providers - necessary for security and reliability.
A fast & native interconnect between two of the most used clouds changes that. It simplifies multi-cloud architectures and can save companies billions while giving them far more flexibility in how they deploy and manage compute workloads.
For example, companies will now be able to leverage compute features from both AWS and Google Cloud for the same app and move data between them quickly and cheaply. That means they can use the best tool from each provider without being locked into one ecosystem or forced into expensive & slow data transfers.
The effect on compute demand is tough to predict. Bears could say that companies will no longer need to duplicate workloads across clouds, reducing overall compute need. Bulls can argue that this bridge unlocks new use cases that were previously too slow, complex or costly, driving more demand, not less.
Another key angle: $GOOG TPUs become much more accessible. AWS customers can now offload only the portions of their workloads that benefit from TPU acceleration, without migrating their entire stack to Google Cloud and commiting there.
It will take time for companies to migrate and use this feature but make no mistake: this is a massive game changer.
The world of tech and innovation became easier, faster and cheaper today. And thatโs a big deal.
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Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.25x
โข5-Year Mean: 30.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.98%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.80%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value on an earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $102.01B
โขLong-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 31.1%
โข2022: 34.0%
โข2023: 30.9%
โข2024: 29.7%
โข2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 47.1%
โข2022: 47.2%
โข2023: 38.8%
โข2024: 37.1%
โข2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUEโ
โข2021: $168.09B
โข2026E: $326.83B
โขCAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW๐*
โข2021: $56.12B
โข2026E: $75.70B
โขCAGR: 6.17%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment โ current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2021: $7.97
โข2026E: $16.10
โขCAGR: 15.10%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2015: $1.24
โข2025: $3.32
โขCAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~29% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.63%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.10 (18% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.73 (16% YoY)
2028E: $22.27 (18% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.27 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $712๐ต โฆ ~16.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $668๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $646๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $623๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
27x P/E: $601๐ต โฆ ~9.4% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Although I wouldnโt want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$485๐ต while relying on 28x - 29x
I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $440๐ต, where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 26x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
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RT @DimitryNakhla: A quality valuation analysis on $MSFT ๐ง๐ฝโโ๏ธ
โขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.25x
โข5-Year Mean: 30.92x
โขNTM FCF Yield: 1.98%
โข5-Year Mean: 2.80%
As you can see, $MSFT appears to be trading near fair value on an earnings basis
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% LESS in FCF per share๐ง ***
Before we get into valuation, letโs take a look at why $MSFT is a quality business
BALANCE SHEETโ
โขCash & Equivalents: $102.01B
โขLong-Term Debt: $35.38B
$MSFT has an excellent balance sheet, an AAA S&P Credit Rating & 58x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITALโ
โข2021: 31.1%
โข2022: 34.0%
โข2023: 30.9%
โข2024: 29.7%
โข2025: 28.0%
RETURN ON EQUITYโ
โข2021: 47.1%
โข2022: 47.2%
โข2023: 38.8%
โข2024: 37.1%
โข2025: 33.3%
$MSFT has great return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUEโ
โข2021: $168.09B
โข2026E: $326.83B
โขCAGR: 14.22%
FREE CASH FLOW๐*
โข2021: $56.12B
โข2026E: $75.70B
โขCAGR: 6.17%
*This is largely due to heavy AI-related reinvestment โ current 2028 FCF estimate $116.45B
NORMALIZED EPSโ
โข2021: $7.97
โข2026E: $16.10
โขCAGR: 15.10%
SHARE BUYBACKSโ
โข2016 Shares Outstanding: 8.01B
โขLTM Shares Outstanding: 7.46B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~7%, $MSFT increased its EPS by ~8% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINSโ
โขLTM Gross Margins: 68.8%
โขLTM Operating Margins: 46.3%
โขLTM Net Income Margins: 35.7%
PAID DIVIDENDSโ
โข2015: $1.24
โข2025: $3.32
โขCAGR: 10.34%
***NOW TO VALUATION ๐ง
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~6% MORE in EPS & ~29% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Grahamโs 2G rule of thumb, $MSFT has to grow earnings at a 14.63% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2026 - 2028 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (14.63%) required growth rate:
2026E: $16.10 (18% YoY) *FY Jun
2027E: $18.73 (16% YoY)
2028E: $22.27 (18% YoY)
$MSFT has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโs assume $MSFT ends 2028 with $22.27 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
32x P/E: $712๐ต โฆ ~16.7% CAGR
30x P/E: $668๐ต โฆ ~13.9% CAGR
29x P/E: $646๐ต โฆ ~12.4% CAGR
28x P/E: $623๐ต โฆ ~10.9% CAGR
27x P/E: $601๐ต โฆ ~9.4% CAGR
As you can see, weโd have to assume a 28x multiple for $MSFT to have attractive return potential
At 27x earnings $MSFT has ok CAGR potential
$MSFT is one of the highest quality companies in the world & is firing on all cylinders
Although I wouldnโt want to rely on a >30x multiple, I feel comfortable accumulating $MSFT shares at ~$485๐ต while relying on 28x - 29x
I consider $MSFT a steal with a large margin of safety at $440๐ต, where I can reasonably expect ~12% CAGR while assuming a more conservative 26x
___
๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐๐โผ๏ธ
๐๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ฉ๐ซ๐จ๐ฏ๐ข๐๐๐ ๐๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐๐ฎ๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐๐ง๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐ญ ๐๐๐ฏ๐ข๐๐, ๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐๐๐ซ, ๐จ๐ซ ๐ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ข๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ฎ๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐๐ฅ๐ฅ ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ฒ.
๐๐๐๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐๐๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐๐ฅยฎ ๐๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐๐ฒ ๐ก๐จ๐ฅ๐ ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐ฌ๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐. ๐๐ง๐ฒ ๐จ๐ฉ๐ข๐ง๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐๐ฑ๐ฉ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฌ๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐ ๐ญ๐ก๐ ๐๐๐ญ๐ ๐จ๐ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ฎ๐๐ฃ๐๐๐ญ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ก๐๐ง๐ ๐ ๐ฐ๐ข๐ญ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ๐ข๐๐.
๐๐ง๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐ก๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐๐ง ๐จ๐๐ญ๐๐ข๐ง๐๐ ๐๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฌ ๐๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐ฏ๐๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฅ๐ข๐๐๐ฅ๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐๐ ๐๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐๐๐๐ฎ๐ซ๐๐๐ฒ ๐จ๐ซ ๐๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐๐ญ๐๐ง๐๐ฌ๐ฌ. ๐๐๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐๐ซ๐๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐๐ง๐๐ ๐๐จ๐๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐๐ซ๐๐ง๐ญ๐๐ ๐๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ ๐ซ๐๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.
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Offshore
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memenodes
Wife: โPlease sell some of your crypto, our children need foodโ
Me: https://t.co/Opn530ZytM
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Wife: โPlease sell some of your crypto, our children need foodโ
Me: https://t.co/Opn530ZytM
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