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EndGame Macro
https://t.co/W0fphYXN8H
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https://t.co/W0fphYXN8H
BREAKING: Bitcoin drops below $85,000 as 24-hour levered position liquidations rise to $800 million. https://t.co/bSDg7dKqCV tweet
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memenodes
Crypto traders in the market for over five years and haven't made any profits https://t.co/44TLD30Gxj
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Crypto traders in the market for over five years and haven't made any profits https://t.co/44TLD30Gxj
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EndGame Macro
The Day the Plumbing Spoke Louder Than the Fed
If you look at today in isolation, it feels messy, SOFR jumping over the Fed’s ceiling, the repo facility getting tapped, global yields drifting higher, USD/JPY finally backing off, and Bitcoin getting knocked straight down the elevator shaft. But when you put all the pieces together, the story is much cleaner…the Fed may have ended QT on paper, but the underlying funding conditions are still tight enough that the market is quietly forcing the transition. The plumbing is speaking louder than the policy statement.
The Funding Market Is Calling The Bluff
SOFR shouldn’t be sitting above the Fed’s upper bound for days at a time, and it definitely shouldn’t be above the discount window rate. That only happens when the system is brushing up against real balance sheet limits. Banks and dealers aren’t paying a premium for dollars because they want to, they’re doing it because private liquidity has dried up at the margin. And the moment the spread to the Fed’s standing repo facility got too wide, we saw what always happens…dealers finally swallowed their pride and tapped the SRF for $25B. That’s a clear sign that QT had reached its natural stopping point. The Fed ending QT wasn’t proactive. It was reactive.
Global Yields Are Repricing the New Reality
At the same time, long end yields around the world are drifting higher, not lower. That’s not what you normally see after two rate cuts and the end of QT. It’s what you see when the market starts questioning the fiscal paths of major economies, and when Japan once the quiet anchor holding down global term premiums begins to move. JGBs at multi decade highs and USD/JPY finally rolling over is the first real sign that the yen carry framework is shifting. When Japan wobbles, it doesn’t stay local. It feeds into credit, into duration trades, into every corner of global risk taking.
The Risk Trades Are the First to Crack
Bitcoin’s sudden drop fits into that framework almost perfectly. Crypto has been living off easy funding and one directional narratives: Fed is done, QT ending, dollar peaking, liquidity returning. But when SOFR jumps, when the SRF is tapped, when long end yields rise instead of fall, and when the yen carry starts to unwind, the high beta trades feel the stress first. Leveraged longs unwind, liquidity thins, stops cascade, and the move becomes dramatic. It’s not about Bitcoin fundamentally, it’s about macro balance sheets being forced to derisk.
The Bigger Picture
So the real takeaway isn’t that something broke. It’s that the post 2020 regime of free carry and painless leverage is fading, and the shift is starting in the pipes rather than the headlines. The Fed ended QT because it had to. Funding markets are tight because balance sheets are full. Global yields are rising because the world is waking up to the cost of fiscal expansion. And the risk assets getting hit, starting with Bitcoin are simply the first places where tight money shows up.
That’s the story today is telling if you’re listening.
tweet
The Day the Plumbing Spoke Louder Than the Fed
If you look at today in isolation, it feels messy, SOFR jumping over the Fed’s ceiling, the repo facility getting tapped, global yields drifting higher, USD/JPY finally backing off, and Bitcoin getting knocked straight down the elevator shaft. But when you put all the pieces together, the story is much cleaner…the Fed may have ended QT on paper, but the underlying funding conditions are still tight enough that the market is quietly forcing the transition. The plumbing is speaking louder than the policy statement.
The Funding Market Is Calling The Bluff
SOFR shouldn’t be sitting above the Fed’s upper bound for days at a time, and it definitely shouldn’t be above the discount window rate. That only happens when the system is brushing up against real balance sheet limits. Banks and dealers aren’t paying a premium for dollars because they want to, they’re doing it because private liquidity has dried up at the margin. And the moment the spread to the Fed’s standing repo facility got too wide, we saw what always happens…dealers finally swallowed their pride and tapped the SRF for $25B. That’s a clear sign that QT had reached its natural stopping point. The Fed ending QT wasn’t proactive. It was reactive.
Global Yields Are Repricing the New Reality
At the same time, long end yields around the world are drifting higher, not lower. That’s not what you normally see after two rate cuts and the end of QT. It’s what you see when the market starts questioning the fiscal paths of major economies, and when Japan once the quiet anchor holding down global term premiums begins to move. JGBs at multi decade highs and USD/JPY finally rolling over is the first real sign that the yen carry framework is shifting. When Japan wobbles, it doesn’t stay local. It feeds into credit, into duration trades, into every corner of global risk taking.
The Risk Trades Are the First to Crack
Bitcoin’s sudden drop fits into that framework almost perfectly. Crypto has been living off easy funding and one directional narratives: Fed is done, QT ending, dollar peaking, liquidity returning. But when SOFR jumps, when the SRF is tapped, when long end yields rise instead of fall, and when the yen carry starts to unwind, the high beta trades feel the stress first. Leveraged longs unwind, liquidity thins, stops cascade, and the move becomes dramatic. It’s not about Bitcoin fundamentally, it’s about macro balance sheets being forced to derisk.
The Bigger Picture
So the real takeaway isn’t that something broke. It’s that the post 2020 regime of free carry and painless leverage is fading, and the shift is starting in the pipes rather than the headlines. The Fed ended QT because it had to. Funding markets are tight because balance sheets are full. Global yields are rising because the world is waking up to the cost of fiscal expansion. And the risk assets getting hit, starting with Bitcoin are simply the first places where tight money shows up.
That’s the story today is telling if you’re listening.
Standing Repo Facility (SRF) just tapped for $25bln https://t.co/MGhKDHM34G tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn is now being given a 14% chance to win the Tennessee House special election tomorrow.
It's a deep-red district, that Trump won by 22 points. https://t.co/eexFPHOZsb
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JUST IN: Democratic candidate Aftyn Behn is now being given a 14% chance to win the Tennessee House special election tomorrow.
It's a deep-red district, that Trump won by 22 points. https://t.co/eexFPHOZsb
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AkhenOsiris
$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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$CRWD Announcements at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike unveils real-time cloud detection technology at AWS re:Invent
CrowdStrike Stops Cloud Attacks in Seconds with Real-Time Cloud Detection and Response Innovations
CrowdStrike launches pay-as-you-go pricing for AWS security products
CrowdStrike Operationalizes and Secures Agentic AI Workloads on AWS
CrowdStrike Advances Next-Gen SIEM and Cloud Security Access on AWS with Streamlined Onboarding, Flexible Pricing, and Cost-Efficient Data Access
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